I see the market as being driven by traders and thats why we've been in a range. People do buy BTC on leverage, they pay interest to do so and then they sell. Lots of markets especially commodity markets are driven in that way. So far its been too tempting to sell at 70k, once again I expect some test in this area.
Away from that idea, maybe the best BTC I did hold was some that I forgot about. Luckily I did rediscover it like 5 years later so I had not made the frequent mistake to sell. Otherwise I have to say I'm often guilty of not the greatest judgement.
I sold in 2016 autumn, just enough to buy PC parts but clearly that cost me alot to do so. I did later recognize in Feb 2017 BTC was silently stronger then it appeared but almost always DCA is entirely justified. Its normal to be distracted or even worse, fearful, scared to buy and maybe scared into selling.
Don't you find it a bit ironic that you seem to be recommending trading BTC, even though you give examples of how you have been both fucked by trading and partially saved by forced HODL?
In other words, you are kind of admitting that you are giving bad advice... and surely, it is too bad that you still persist with a kind of trading disposition even though it is likely not going to work out for either you or anyone following such practices, unless you can figure out how to sell in such a way that you are not trying to buy back lower, but that is part of your problem in terms of both greed and likely ongoingly not learning your lesson by selling too much too soon and wrongly believing it is going to work to your advantage.
Just think about how much money you could have right now, even if you had followed a fairly straight-forward consistent and strict DCA strategy, and for some reason you still believe that trading is better... even though it has already bit you in the ass.
Think about if you had invested right around
$30 per week into bitcoin since your forum registration date, you would have had invested right around $17.4k and you would have just over 20 BTC (currently valued at right around $1.35 million, and surely those would be decent returns, and surely not a bad place to be, yet instead you seem to continue to want to recommend a trading strategy as if you need to trade BTC in order to be able to improve upon a more straight-forward and disciplined ongoing DCA strategy. I really doubt whatever you have been doing has been able to equal or exceed a straight-forward DCA strategy and you still are contradictorily arguing for such.
My understanding of the market is via trading and why it gets the sharp moves like the 2020 low and later rises. When we do pass 70k and confirm it as a low not a peak area, the character of the market will change alot from now.
I haven't accumulated enough so if anything I'm biased to wanting the lower prices tbh;
That is a newbie perspective, and not a perspective of someone who has been in bitcoin for more than 11 years. Too bad that you continue to advocate trading, when it seems to have had not worked out very well for you, yet you still have not learned and you seem to insist on continuing not to learn from your mistakes of the past.
For some reason, you seem to believe that the situation (or bitcoin's investment thesis) has changed merely because the price went up and you are seeming to ongoingly be caught in the same ongoing fallacy of underestimating BTC's upside potential and your supposed ability to figure out when dips might happen.
I saw us breaking down to 50k recently and sadly it didnt play out
Exactly. You should have had been concentrating on accumulating through that whole time, especially if you are admitting that you don't have enough and you consider yourself to still be in an accumulation stage. I am not even blaming you for still being in an accumulation stage, but I am blaming you in both believing in promoting trading as if it were the answer, when surely both history has shown trading to not be the answer, and there is no real reason to speculate that trading is the answer into the future, since bitcoin is a similar asset as it was in the past, maybe with a bit less upside potential, but still way more than enough upside potential to instruct anyone who is trying to accumulate BTC that the better ways to accumulate BTC are through various buying techniques such as DCA, buying on dips and lump sum buying. Neither waiting nor selling are good in regards to better practices to accumulate BTC.
But yeah, sometimes stubborn folks never learn.. and worse you are trying to suggest that others do the same thing as you.
A failed move to the downside explains why we've risen harder now. Its interesting to me, anyhow I get how all these are games played and not actually the main picture for BTC.
Another explanation is that we are in a bullmarket so you should be considering that any breakouts are more inclined to break up rather than down.. but hey whatever, come up with whatever lame trading theories that you like and have fun staying in your accumulation stage way longer than you likely need to based on more sound practices of BTC accumulation that focus upon buying strategies rather than getting distracted into trading strategies that may or may not end up playing out... which likely either contribute to your failing to buy enough or selling too much too soon.. either way, you end up with fewer BTC than you should have, even though you believe that you are getting coins cheaper, you are losing what should be your focus, which is accumulating BTC regularly, consistently, persistently and ongoingly until you reach enough or more than enough and not getting overly preoccupied by how much they are costing you and not getting too worried about selling on the way up.. which seems to be an ongoing mistake that you have been making through the years and continuing to make.
I would have alot more BTC and be better off overall if I had been more bullish on BTC in every state of its cycle, up or down.
Oh gawd.. then why do you keep bouncing out of bullishness? You need a slappening. Perhaps from batman.
Trading is generally not the best idea, it'll take up alot of time and most people wont excel enough to ever justify saying they trade a bull market like this; I'd include myself in that but it remains an interest of mine.
You are too greedy.
If you cannot resist trading (gambling), if you at least limit your BTC trading stash to 10% of your bitcoin holdings, then at least you would still be able to entertain your gambling(trading) addiction, but part of the problem with any addict is that they neither know when to stop, and even if they believe that they are stopping, they still end u suffering from creep.. the gambling creeps in more and more and more, and they end up cheating on any limits that they had set for themselves.
It is not easy to be both a BTC HODLer and to consistently continue to buy (accumulate) BTC through the UPs and DOWNs until getting enough BTC and perhaps more than enough BTC, and surely sometimes it can take more than 1 or 2 cycles to get to a BTC stash size that might allow changing tactics away from accumulation that is based on pure buying and allow for selling on the way up.. and even when any of us might be selling on the way up, we are not necessarily selling in order to buy BTC back cheaper, so we end up selling a low enough quantity of BTC that we presume that the BTC price is going to continue to go up and not come back down. Part of your problem STT is that you are both predicting and desiring the BTC price to go down so that you can buy back more cheaper, and surely you could even have many many many times in which you are successful to buy back cheaper, yet if you are selling too much too soon, then sooner or later you are not going to be able to buy back, and therefore you end up losing all of the profits that you had stacked up in your previous trades... and even if you are very good and you have historically been very lucky, it does not take very many of those bad trades to both wipe out your profits, but also to contribute to your overall BTC stash being way smaller than it would have otherwise been with a more simple and straightforward strategy that focuses upon both accumulation of BTC through buying and also HODL when running out of money to buy more.
I owned a bit of the tech shares when they much cheaper. They have risen alot since the millennium era fallout, they have been a bull market and dont sell a bull market whatever asset type that is. BTC is bullish for sure.
Ok.. that sounds like a good idea. At least you are not completely nutso. hahahahaha
A funny story I read is Goldman Sachs owning quite alot of Tencent just when it started out, they made a quick buck of course like investment banks do. If instead GS had held shares not sold then the millions would now be many billions more then entire bank worth is today [share price fell since that story but still an epic gain].
Even professionals screw up, not being on leverage is a great advantage over those forced to ride a yoyo because they trade with borrowed dollars.
Another set of fair points, yet surely we are talking about bitcoin here rather than other investments, even though surely sometimes reasonable parallels can be drawn, even though at the same time, it may well be distracting to get caught up with a variety of investments, and so in some sense, there is quite a bit of logic for any bitcoiner to get his/her bitcoin strategy in place over 1 or 2 cycles before getting distracted into other investments, and maybe even then there might need to be some care in terms of how much any of us might decide to invest into other assets once we have built our bitcoin stash up to a certain acceptable (and perhaps overly stocked up) size.. When to diversify, how much and even how carry out such a thing seems to be another strategy (topic) that might lead us a bit further astray from what should be a bitcoin line of discussion (a bitcoin thread).
I think more time to accumulate will occur this year though it seems we wont be going back to the lows of the year, thats been rejected a few times. I do think it takes some time to get past 70k and properly move beyond. The real time to buy was either in the teens or when we were rising from there, it required more confidence to do so. Right now we've been stuck in a range for 6 months, most tempting thing is to buy the lows of that range and sell the highs hence it repeats.
Your explanation sounds more of trading to me. As an investor in Bitcoin you shouldn't be talking of selling for now rather keep on hodling unless you have been accumulating Bitcoin for long and have accumulated enough and decide to sell out some of your Bitcoin hodling. For the goal is to accumulate more and more Bitcoin and HODL for future purpose the DCA method is there to help us accumulate Bitcoin in different price level weekly or monthly and hodl for long.
Yep. Exactly.
STT admits that he still is in an accumulation stage even though he has been in bitcoin for more than 11 years.. so sure, nothing wrong with still being in an accumulation stage, yet there does seem to be something wrong in terms of believing that selling is a reasonable and prudent strategy to accumulate bitcoin, when many of us have been discussing for quite long time (and even newbies learn this) that the better ways to accumulate bitcoin relate to various ways of buying bitcoin that involve DCA, lump sum and buying the dip, and so neither waiting nor selling BTC are good accumulation strategies until after you have either accumulated enough or more than enough BTC, and STT admits that he has not yet reached either sufficient or over accumulation of BTC.
[edited out]
Well maybe I didn't express myself very well but what I was trying to drive at is that if you have a target of accumulating for a number of year and you reach that target and later realize you have not accumulated enough is better you then channel your target on a certain number which you want or you can analyze yourself and know how many years you would set again to hit your main target.
Our goal should be on accumulating what will satisfy us and not just reaching a number year, what should matter is how satisfied we are in our Bitcoin investment, so when setting a target will should always go for our self satisfaction not not just normal investment norm.
This was what I was driving at and trying to express.
What you said to clarify the matter is not really any more clear, and surely there are likely times along the way in our BTC accumulation journey that we are going to need to reevaluate our BTC accumulation targets, so BTC accumulation is a bit of a moving target, even if we might have some general ideas along the way in regards to where we want to get to and how we plan to get there, we still likely are going to need to evaluate and reevaluate how much any plan that we set forth in our earlier BTC accumulation journey is staying within a ballpark of staying on target or staying within an acceptable range... which we set for ourselves and we adapt from time to time based on our particular circumstances (like the
9 factors), which also might be changing with the passage of time.
[edited out
I have watch my coment recieving quote upon quote for sometime now, but I guess I will have to reply and I will like you @JJG to throw more light to this, my question is this, does it mean that time frame or interval does not matter in bitcoin investment or accumulation process? because we have been discussing alot about setting out target or specific period of time we should invest, this has been lingering for long now, in prior to 4-10years and 20-30. even though there are other things to be considered like having a target of the amount of btc we should accumulate for a period of time, and age gap. but that does not mean we should neglect time frame or the number of years we plan to accumulate. because from different coment here I think the year doesn't matter anymore? according to my observations the years of accounting is just like an emagination, but the main Focus is just to have that mindset that
" I need to accumulate like 0.2 btc" then with an imaginative thinking of calculating that if one should accumulate $15 every week multiply by 4 which is a months multiply by 12 months which is a year e.g
$15 *4week= $60per 1month
$60 * 12month = $720 1year
$720 * 20years = $14400
this means it will take either 20 year and above or below to accumulate this amount of btc. though along the line the accumulator may decide to lump sum a huge amount or decide to increase his discretion and weekly DCA and the years of accumulation may reduce to 10 years and the speculated time frame of 20years was not achieve, but the btc was achieved, doesn't mean we should totally deny that the year of accounting does not matter. What do you have to say about this? Because the matter is bit complicated.
There is nothing wrong with your framing of the matter, and surely you can ONLY calculate what is within your speculations that you will be able to achieve, and surely if you are able to increase your income or decrease your expenses, then your disposable income might go up, just as you mentioned, there may be times (from time to time) in which you are able to buy more bitcoin because you came across more money. so you may be able to lump sum and/or increase your DCA amount and/or even increase the amount of dollars that you might hold in reserves for buying the dip.
Through the years, you can adjust from time to time and learn from your mistakes or even keep your old planning papers (whether they are physical papers or you might have older Excel drafts), so probably the longer that you are accumulating bitcoin, the better you will get at it, whether you might start with a strict DCA strategy, but then maybe later you might incorporate some other strategies such as buying on dips and lump sum when you sometimes might end up getting some extra cashflows that increase your disposable income....and if your various other cashflow management, such as emergency fund, reserves and float might be in good shape that allows you to strategize how to employ your BTC buying (accumulation) in the three categories of consideration.. and even including sometimes resorting to HODL strategies in periods that you might run out of money and you might not be able to buy more.
