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Author Topic: Bitmark  (Read 602407 times)
neleonele
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August 04, 2014, 07:47:11 PM
 #941


Bitmark Network Health Charts - still under development. You can perhaps gain some benefit by having access to them early.

this is awesome!!!
great stuff
thanks mark

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Este Nuno
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August 04, 2014, 08:09:52 PM
 #942



Este, gratz for the bitmarknews kick off. It looks good  Grin



Thanks. Smiley

And incase anyone missed it: https://twitter.com/BitmarkNews as well Cool
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August 04, 2014, 08:43:10 PM
 #943


Bitmark Network Health Charts - still under development. You can perhaps gain some benefit by having access to them early.

You can see the large spikes in production cost corresponding to difficulty hikes. This would explain why big miners are jumping on and off the network

"The true sign of intelligence is not knowledge but imagination"  -Albert Einstein
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August 05, 2014, 07:43:04 AM
 #944


Bitmark Network Health Charts - still under development. You can perhaps gain some benefit by having access to them early.

You can see the large spikes in production cost corresponding to difficulty hikes. This would explain why big miners are jumping on and off the network

It should average itself out more or less though I think.
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August 05, 2014, 08:03:11 AM
 #945


Bitmark Network Health Charts - still under development. You can perhaps gain some benefit by having access to them early.

You can see the large spikes in production cost corresponding to difficulty hikes. This would explain why big miners are jumping on and off the network

It should average itself out more or less though I think.

Glad to see the big miners not sticking around ... yesterday; one worker in xHash.net took half the network and almost completely stopped the mningpool.co from finding blocks. Makes it harder for the rest of us.
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August 05, 2014, 08:30:57 AM
 #946


Bitmark Network Health Charts - still under development. You can perhaps gain some benefit by having access to them early.

You can see the large spikes in production cost corresponding to difficulty hikes. This would explain why big miners are jumping on and off the network

It should average itself out more or less though I think.

Glad to see the big miners not sticking around ... yesterday; one worker in xHash.net took half the network and almost completely stopped the mningpool.co from finding blocks. Makes it harder for the rest of us.

Yeah I saw that guy too. Pretty amazing amount of hash they were pointing! I think I remember it being around 1.2GH.
coinsolidation
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August 05, 2014, 08:43:20 AM
 #947

Discussing http://bitmark.co/statistics/health

You can see the large spikes in production cost corresponding to difficulty hikes. This would explain why big miners are jumping on and off the network

Production cost corresponds to network difficulty. Network difficulty is adjusted to reflect the average network hashrate, which is determined by miners joining and leaving the network over the previous day. Chronikka's statement can be read to confuse a cause with an effect. If the average hashpower on the network is above the network target then as a later effect difficulty and production cost rise, if below then later difficulty and production cost reduce.

It should average itself out more or less though I think.

The green line on the production cost chart is the five day average, so yes, it does even out very well.

The Bitmark network has a very long reward maturation, any BTM mined cannot be used until the difficulty has changed twice more. If you mine all day today, then in two days all the currency you mined today would be usable. Any miner who is on the network consistently should use the green line as a fair average. Any miner who usually looks at 'profitability' charts to dump currency immediately would be wise to consider that with Bitmark it is an unknown metric, unless you can predict a market price in two days.

We should also look at the market. Soon we can expect to see a general alignment between production cost and market price. This happens naturally as currency is absorbed.

Over time both production-cost and price-tag are reflected by difficulty, difficulty is a measure of demand, and demand is in the domain of myself and others working on Bitmark and Marking.

Glad to see the big miners not sticking around ... yesterday; one worker in xHash.net took half the network and almost completely stopped the mningpool.co from finding blocks. Makes it harder for the rest of us.

The network was at 2GH/s and a miner added 1GH/s. Consequently that miner had 33% of the network hashing power and everybody else had 33% less. However the network found blocks 33% faster until the difficulty changed. So during that time everybody found 33% less blocks 33% faster.

Bitmark's rewards are balanced to produce more rewards with less currency in each. As a result every miner get's a fair share, where 'fair share' is the amount of BTM produced divided by the network hashing power and multiplied by their hashpower.

If you provide 2% of the network hashpower you will get 2% of the rewards, regardless of which pool you are in or whether you solo mine.

If you mine on the network consistently then the green bar on production cost is your guide, the BTM you produce is equivalent whether you mine solo, on a pool, or p2pool. Production cost variance outside of the green line for you directly on average is entirely determined by the efficiency of your mining hardware and electricity costs. For some it will be higher, for others lower.

tl;dr
if you are mining consistently consider the green bar on the production cost chart to be your guide, the only way to achieve this is to mine consistently, anything else is a gamble with variance.
if you are buying btm on markets consider consider the green bar on the production chart to be a future guide, allowing some time at present for markets to catch up and absorb currency created before the markets existed.

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August 05, 2014, 09:24:35 AM
 #948

Discussing http://bitmark.co/statistics/health

The network was at 2GH/s and a miner added 1GH/s. Consequently that miner had 33% of the network hashing power and everybody else had 33% less. However the network found blocks 33% faster until the difficulty changed. So during that time everybody found 33% less blocks 33% faster.




Good explanation with that quote, it makes sense, only thing I have with it is that the miners that are sticking with the pool have to recover the difficulty/speed issue that is left behind once they pull out.  

It seems that the block speed is now slower then before the big machines enter; slower blocks until the difficulty recovers?
coinsolidation
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August 05, 2014, 09:52:41 AM
 #949

Discussing http://bitmark.co/statistics/health

The network was at 2GH/s and a miner added 1GH/s. Consequently that miner had 33% of the network hashing power and everybody else had 33% less. However the network found blocks 33% faster until the difficulty changed. So during that time everybody found 33% less blocks 33% faster.

Good explanation with that quote, it makes sense, only thing I have with it is that the miners that are sticking with the pool have to recover the difficulty/speed issue that is left behind once they pull out.  

It seems that the block speed is now slower then before the big machines enter; slower blocks until the difficulty recovers?

Yes, if you look at either of the charts you will see production cost, difficulty, and hashrate all reduce after a rise. This evens out to produce the average (5 day) green line you see on production cost, and the average (3 day) blue line you see on network health.

Over time as the hashrate increases the change a high power miner can create reduces as their hashpower is a smaller percentage of the total network hashpower.

IPM also reduces this further, when there is a demand for IPM, currently investors can buy on market cheaper than mining. Until the two adjust there will be no demand for IPM.

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tdokta
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August 05, 2014, 10:40:02 AM
 #950


Yes, if you look at either of the charts you will see production cost, difficulty, and hashrate all reduce after a rise. This evens out to produce the average (5 day) green line you see on production cost, and the average (3 day) blue line you see on network health.

Over time as the hashrate increases the change a high power miner can create reduces as their hashpower is a smaller percentage of the total network hashpower.

IPM also reduces this further, when there is a demand for IPM, currently investors can buy on market cheaper than mining. Until the two adjust there will be no demand for IPM.


thanks for the clarity. have been studying the live graphs, finding them helpful with calculations. clearly visible is the market sales price in alignment with the green line. seems there is currently about a week of correction between cost and poloniex sales price.

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August 05, 2014, 11:06:21 AM
 #951

Alignment will happen and is, it can happen in either direction, network difficulty and production cost may reduce or the price on market may increase. Perhaps somewhere in between.

If we remember that to begin buyers were also mining with hired mining rigs, some will be moving buying towards the market now.

Alignment does not mean equality, and it differs from correction.

We normally appear to have a dual impact of Granger causality in cryptographic currencies, where production cost can be used to forecast market price-tag, and market price-tag can be used to forecast production cost. This is because the real data to use in forecasting both production cost and price tag is demand, user demand from people using Bitmarks or Marks, rather than the all too common speculation on which most 'coins' have their value based. Thankfully Bitmark is quite autonomous from the set of crypto-currencies in this regard due to the project being focussed on user adoption and earning real value.


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sammy007
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August 05, 2014, 03:10:06 PM
 #952

Just crafted IRC bot, feel free to join #bitmark on irc.freenode.net and say hello to BitMarcy!

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amarha


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August 05, 2014, 04:11:39 PM
 #953

Just crafted IRC bot, feel free to join #bitmark on irc.freenode.net and say hello to BitMarcy!

Awesome. Thanks a lot for this. We've been wanting a bot for a while now.
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August 05, 2014, 06:08:09 PM
 #954

How is production cost determined on charts?
coinsolidation
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August 05, 2014, 06:49:51 PM
 #955

How is production cost determined on charts?

It is nice to see you here statdude.

Here is the source on github.

data/health.php is semi generic and can be used on any network. The script takes data samples of 60 blocks.
1. first block time
2. 60th block time
3. difficulty
4. network hashrate 2 hour sample, 4 hour sample, 8 hour sample.

inside health.html the data sample data is pulled, and the d3.js graphs are produced, the production cost (gray line) is calculated as

5. From this you can derive the average block time ([2]-[1])/60) in seconds
6. derive the megahashes per second required to generate a block at speed from [5]: ((hashrate-2-hour-sample/1000000) / 86400
7. multiply [6] by the average cost per MH/s of hashing for the specific algorithm
8. [5]*[7] is the BTC cost per block
9. [8]/block-reward is the BTC cost per BTM for the sample.
repeat.

The blue line is simply the sum of [9] for all samples divided by the total currency minted at sample time

The green line, the moving average, is an array which holds [9] for the last 84 samples, summed up and divided by 84*60*20 to get a 5 day average production cost.

If you would like me to make the charts more generic so that they can easily be used for any currency I would be glad to do this, if there are any other charts you think are useful I will produce them, and if you have any feedback or corrections please offer them up so I can make adjustments.

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coinsolidation
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August 05, 2014, 11:09:34 PM
 #956

Proposal to establish a user 'price' for every day usage in transactions:

Code:
User Price = (5 Day Average Production Cost + 3 Day Average Market Price) / 2

I am thinking about providing a simple data api on bitmark.co which lists production cost and price tag averages for different periods of time, with the above as a proposed default for users and businesses.

What do you all think about this?

checkpoints updated at block 17500

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Este Nuno
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amarha


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August 06, 2014, 06:46:36 AM
 #957

Proposal to establish a user 'price' for every day usage in transactions:

Code:
User Price = (5 Day Average Production Cost + 3 Day Average Market Price) / 2

I am thinking about providing a simple data api on bitmark.co which lists production cost and price tag averages for different periods of time, with the above as a proposed default for users and businesses.

What do you all think about this?

checkpoints updated at block 17500

Eventually though when there is enough liquidity in the trade market the cost of production won't be necessary right?
coinsolidation
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August 06, 2014, 07:28:57 AM
 #958

Proposal to establish a user 'price' for every day usage in transactions:

Code:
User Price = (5 Day Average Production Cost + 3 Day Average Market Price) / 2


Eventually though when there is enough liquidity in the trade market the cost of production won't be necessary right?

We do not know, production cost and price tag tend to influence each other, one can be down whilst the other is up and conversely. Adding them together and dividing by two may balance and soften changes to either, similar to measuring market price by the middle of the spread. It's the same information yet more gentle in change.

If we provide all the numbers with averages at different times, people can decide which to use for themselves. Perhaps a chart showing them all will allow those with need to make their own decision.

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amarha


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August 06, 2014, 07:36:47 AM
 #959

Proposal to establish a user 'price' for every day usage in transactions:

Code:
User Price = (5 Day Average Production Cost + 3 Day Average Market Price) / 2


Eventually though when there is enough liquidity in the trade market the cost of production won't be necessary right?

We do not know, production cost and price tag tend to influence each other, one can be down whilst the other is up and conversely. Adding them together and dividing by two may balance and soften changes to either, similar to measuring market price by the middle of the spread. It's the same information yet more gentle in change.

If we provide all the numbers with averages at different times, people can decide which to use for themselves. Perhaps a chart showing them all will allow those with need to make their own decision.

Right. It's not something we get to decide. The best we can do is provide all the relevant information and let people make their own choices. Smiley
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August 06, 2014, 02:32:36 PM
 #960

Proposal to establish a user 'price' for every day usage in transactions:

Code:
User Price = (5 Day Average Production Cost + 3 Day Average Market Price) / 2


Eventually though when there is enough liquidity in the trade market the cost of production won't be necessary right?

We do not know, production cost and price tag tend to influence each other, one can be down whilst the other is up and conversely. Adding them together and dividing by two may balance and soften changes to either, similar to measuring market price by the middle of the spread. It's the same information yet more gentle in change.

If we provide all the numbers with averages at different times, people can decide which to use for themselves. Perhaps a chart showing them all will allow those with need to make their own decision.

Right. It's not something we get to decide. The best we can do is provide all the relevant information and let people make their own choices. Smiley

By providing people with factual comprehensive information, they are better able to make informed decisions. This should be a healthy addition to the site.  Smiley

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