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Author Topic: Rally!!!!!  (Read 77052 times)
molecular
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June 12, 2012, 09:14:20 PM
 #401


probabilities are a tool to cope with lack of knowledge. In hindsight, only one possibility will have had a chance at all Wink. There has evidently been a past and there's probably a future.



Such an optimist.  Cheesy

let's enjoy the now for now Wink

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June 12, 2012, 09:35:39 PM
 #402

Slow(er) growth will be the most encouraging.

It would indicate a slow trickle of newcomers and enough liquidity to absorb them at the rate they are arriving.  If anything, we're still moving a little too quickly... 15% growth in a matter of weeks seems too hot to me.

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June 12, 2012, 09:56:25 PM
 #403

kronos.io will probably cool this down a bit when they launch it.

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June 12, 2012, 09:57:55 PM
 #404

kronos.io will probably cool this down a bit when they launch it.

can you explain exactly why/how?

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June 12, 2012, 10:02:16 PM
 #405

Slow(er) growth will be the most encouraging.

It would indicate a slow trickle of newcomers and enough liquidity to absorb them at the rate they are arriving.  If anything, we're still moving a little too quickly... 15% growth in a matter of weeks seems too hot to me.

This time, I'm not on the "too hot" side. In fact, I feel somewhat bullish.

Bitcoin has been stable and resilient on many fronts lately, maybe with the exception of the block chain scaling nuisance, but that's not a show-stopper so far. Everything else, though, is a horrible mess! Currency chaos Bitcoin seeks to replace has not done a good job of staying in place lately, and politics around the globe are as erratic as ever. If anything, the need for Bitcoin has increased.

So we have a working system that is stabilizing and returning to growth after its violent birth... that might face increasing demand!

In the end, it depends on whether more people finally "get it," but I think it's reasonable to be bullish just because of the current low absolute BTC value when comparing to its potential.
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June 12, 2012, 10:28:20 PM
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Slow(er) growth will be the most encouraging.

It would indicate a slow trickle of newcomers and enough liquidity to absorb them at the rate they are arriving.  If anything, we're still moving a little too quickly... 15% growth in a matter of weeks seems too hot to me.

This time, I'm not on the "too hot" side. In fact, I feel somewhat bullish.

Bitcoin has been stable and resilient on many fronts lately, maybe with the exception of the block chain scaling nuisance, but that's not a show-stopper so far. Everything else, though, is a horrible mess! Currency chaos Bitcoin seeks to replace has not done a good job of staying in place lately, and politics around the globe are as erratic as ever. If anything, the need for Bitcoin has increased.

So we have a working system that is stabilizing and returning to growth after its violent birth... that might face increasing demand!

In the end, it depends on whether more people finally "get it," but I think it's reasonable to be bullish just because of the current low absolute BTC value when comparing to its potential.

All that is true; but it's not happened in the last three weeks.  For this to be real growth it should be slower; this is speculation about the real growth.  If that growth doesn't keep up with the speculation then it's a bubble and it'll burst again.

That's not the end of the world of course.

Long term, definitely bullish, but this speedy growth seems too quick to me.  Of course I accept the alternative is possible: the long stability was a sort of reverse bubble and this is the correction.

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June 12, 2012, 10:36:33 PM
 #407

I agree that there is a risk of this train leaving the station with such momentum that a bubble will form. However Bitcoin in my book very much deserves to leave at least $5.x way behind. It's a good question if $7 is justified yet or if double digits are justified, but with everything going on and the way Bitcoin is doing I just think that there is some room for growth as far as the Bitcoin market cap is concerned.

The growth in terms of price will always come in spurts because speculators are predicting stuff all the time. It's up to all of us to see in the coming weeks and coming months what is actually sustainable growth and what is not. The fact that so many of us have learned so much about how markets work and how the Bitcoin market works specifically will make it very difficult for a large bubble to form. But I guess we'll see about that.

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June 12, 2012, 11:02:07 PM
 #408

* Rumors of European capital controls strong positive for bitcoin. Move currency around the world with no govt interaction.
* Rumors of MtGox not paying USD: Strong positive for bitcoin. What else would you do with the USD in your acct?

Anything could happen, but there is a non-zero risk of waking up to a $10+ bitcoin any given night.

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June 13, 2012, 01:07:32 AM
 #409

* Rumors of MtGox not paying USD: Strong positive for bitcoin. What else would you do with the USD in your acct?

Rumours of MtGox not paying USD?  Any evidence of that?  If true, seems like a reason to get money out of MtGox any way possible, rather than convert it to bitcoin.

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June 13, 2012, 01:15:12 AM
 #410

* Rumors of MtGox not paying USD: Strong positive for bitcoin. What else would you do with the USD in your acct?

Rumours of MtGox not paying USD?  Any evidence of that?  If true, seems like a reason to get money out of MtGox any way possible, rather than convert it to bitcoin.

The way possible would be buying bitcoin...

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June 13, 2012, 01:17:00 AM
 #411

* Rumors of European capital controls strong positive for bitcoin. Move currency around the world with no govt interaction.
* Rumors of MtGox not paying USD: Strong positive for bitcoin. What else would you do with the USD in your acct?

Anything could happen, but there is a non-zero risk of waking up to a $10+ bitcoin any given night.

MtGox not paying fiat might be very strongly positive in the short term, but it would probably result in extra selling at other markets and off-market pretty quickly.

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June 13, 2012, 01:45:11 AM
 #412

* Rumors of MtGox not paying USD: Strong positive for bitcoin. What else would you do with the USD in your acct?

Rumours of MtGox not paying USD?  Any evidence of that?  If true, seems like a reason to get money out of MtGox any way possible, rather than convert it to bitcoin.

The way possible would be buying bitcoin...

Or any of the other currencies MtGox supports, unless the suggestion is MtGox isn't paying all currencies, rather than just USD.

In the short term it is bullish for bitcoin if MtGox can't meet its obligations, but longer term it's quite damaging.

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June 13, 2012, 01:46:25 AM
 #413

* Rumors of MtGox not paying USD: Strong positive for bitcoin. What else would you do with the USD in your acct?

Rumours of MtGox not paying USD?  Any evidence of that?  If true, seems like a reason to get money out of MtGox any way possible, rather than convert it to bitcoin.

The way possible would be buying bitcoin...

Or any of the other currencies MtGox supports, unless the suggestion is MtGox isn't paying all currencies, rather than just USD.

In the short term it is bullish for bitcoin if MtGox can't meet its obligations, but longer term it's quite damaging.
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June 13, 2012, 01:50:33 AM
 #414

Just to be clear, the official word is that there are delays due to Dwolla's change in their TOS and all requests will be processed.  But yes, if you need USD funds quickly, buying bitcoin and selling them elsewhere is the only way to make that happen. (Or buying bitcoin and selling for a different currency then paying huge currency conversion fees to the wiring banks).

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
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June 13, 2012, 01:58:18 AM
 #415

- bitinstant and massive availability of "cash for btc" trade
- bit-pay massive growth, reportedly 200-300% per month
- bitcoin magazine
- GPU -> FPGA change of guard
- investments being rounded up for bitcoin mining ASIC's by multiply independent parties (meaning by the end of 2013-2014 51% could be out of reach of most viable attackers today and that we will be measuring hashing power in petahashes and exahashes)
- upcoming FIRST EVER bitcoin subsidy cut
- massive and mostly positive news flow
- many significant projects in development, including zipconf, kronos, hermes, ellet hardware wallet, that bitcoin card, proper hosting services suitable for hosting bitcoin wallets etc...
- improvement on the decentralisation front. For example, say, mtgox (or and other exchange or biz) folds now, it is only problem for their customers, the rest of the world will just move on.  Deep bit is taking relatively small fraction of mining power as opposed to flirting with 51% level.

We are now at some very much solid footing as compared to about 1 year ago when we 2 digit valuations of BTC. I would think that market is grossly undervaluing Bitcoin and its potential.

If a (centralised) company with anything close to Bitcoin's "product" and growth history and potential to effectively replace most of modern banking system which has estimated valuation at almost 10% of worlds assets (excluding all the off-balance shit, lol). Such a company would be valued at billions already, not some puny 50MM which is a valuation reserved for smalltime 3 man teams starting some scam and trading it on pink sheets.

Do post if I have missed something of note.

I would think that fair Bitcoins valuation should be in middle 2 digit right now, not 5-6$.





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June 13, 2012, 02:04:49 AM
 #416

- bitinstant and massive availability of "cash for btc" trade
- bit-pay massive growth, reportedly 200-300% per month
- bitcoin magazine
- GPU -> FPGA change of guard
- investments being rounded up for bitcoin mining ASIC's by multiply independent parties (meaning by the end of 2013-2014 51% could be out of reach of most viable attackers today and that we will be measuring hashing power in petahashes and exahashes)
- upcoming FIRST EVER bitcoin subsidy cut
- massive and mostly positive news flow
- many significant projects in development, including zipconf, kronos, hermes, ellet hardware wallet, that bitcoin card, proper hosting services suitable for hosting bitcoin wallets etc...
- improvement on the decentralisation front. For example, say, mtgox (or and other exchange or biz) folds now, it is only problem for their customers, the rest of the world will just move on.  Deep bit is taking relatively small fraction of mining power as opposed to flirting with 51% level.

We are now at some very much solid footing as compared to about 1 year ago when we 2 digit valuations of BTC. I would think that market is grossly undervaluing Bitcoin and its potential.

If a (centralised) company with anything close to Bitcoin's "product" and growth history and potential to effectively replace most of modern banking system which has estimated valuation at almost 10% of worlds assets (excluding all the off-balance shit, lol). Such a company would be valued at billions already, not some puny 50MM which is a valuation reserved for smalltime 3 man teams starting some scam and trading it on pink sheets.

Do post if I have missed something of note.

I would think that fair Bitcoins valuation should be in middle 2 digit right now, not 5-6$.

Why do you think valuation should be in "middle 2 digit" right now?

Check out what I highlighted in bold from your post.  This is the only non-speculative indicator you listed that suggests that the value of Bitcoin should increase. 

The value of Bitcoin should only increase when people buy them and use them.

Now, the value of Bitcoin may increase due to the other things you mentioned, and I would be inclined to agree that it will.  But, they are in no way definitive reasons that the value of Bitcoin should be in double digits.

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June 13, 2012, 02:19:31 AM
 #417

I can't believe sometimes how the forum promotes a free market, yet yells about what the fair market value of bitcoin is. The fair market value is what people are willing to buy it for or what people are willing to sell it for, which is at the moment $5.7. If you disagree, name your fair market value and I will buy/sell from/to you at that value.
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June 13, 2012, 02:30:13 AM
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dree12,  the joint: No offence, but both of you, in this case, are being simply ridiculous and really do not deserve any more detailed response.

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June 13, 2012, 02:31:39 AM
 #419

I can't believe sometimes how the forum promotes a free market, yet yells about what the fair market value of bitcoin is. The fair market value is what people are willing to buy it for or what people are willing to sell it for, which is at the moment $5.7. If you disagree, name your fair market value and I will buy/sell from/to you at that value.

Just pretend they are yelling about what they expect it to be in the near future.

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June 13, 2012, 02:40:30 AM
 #420

- bitinstant and massive availability of "cash for btc" trade
- bit-pay massive growth, reportedly 200-300% per month
- bitcoin magazine
- GPU -> FPGA change of guard
- investments being rounded up for bitcoin mining ASIC's by multiply independent parties (meaning by the end of 2013-2014 51% could be out of reach of most viable attackers today and that we will be measuring hashing power in petahashes and exahashes)
- upcoming FIRST EVER bitcoin subsidy cut
- massive and mostly positive news flow
- many significant projects in development, including zipconf, kronos, hermes, ellet hardware wallet, that bitcoin card, proper hosting services suitable for hosting bitcoin wallets etc...
- improvement on the decentralisation front. For example, say, mtgox (or and other exchange or biz) folds now, it is only problem for their customers, the rest of the world will just move on.  Deep bit is taking relatively small fraction of mining power as opposed to flirting with 51% level.

We are now at some very much solid footing as compared to about 1 year ago when we 2 digit valuations of BTC. I would think that market is grossly undervaluing Bitcoin and its potential.

If a (centralised) company with anything close to Bitcoin's "product" and growth history and potential to effectively replace most of modern banking system which has estimated valuation at almost 10% of worlds assets (excluding all the off-balance shit, lol). Such a company would be valued at billions already, not some puny 50MM which is a valuation reserved for smalltime 3 man teams starting some scam and trading it on pink sheets.

Do post if I have missed something of note.

I would think that fair Bitcoins valuation should be in middle 2 digit right now, not 5-6$.

Why do you think valuation should be in "middle 2 digit" right now?

Check out what I highlighted in bold from your post.  This is the only non-speculative indicator you listed that suggests that the value of Bitcoin should increase.  

The value of Bitcoin should only increase when people buy them and use them.

Now, the value of Bitcoin may increase due to the other things you mentioned, and I would be inclined to agree that it will.  But, they are in no way definitive reasons that the value of Bitcoin should be in double digits.

its shows us that, demand is growing "bit-pay growth", miners are confident value will not drop GPU -> FPGA change of guard (multiply independent parties), project development is not slowing (their only getting more ambitious).

improvements all round. price lingers behind? Maybe!

8$ Cheesy

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