[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TheKoziTwo]

This describes the effect of dumps more than the effect of walls.  When one dumps a lot of XMR to drive the price down, hoping to buy more back cheaper.


But a wall is different from a market order. 

The effect of a sell wall is sometimes just a desire to sell monero at that price (a 'real' wall).  But sometimes it is a bluff (a 'fake' wall).


The purpose of a bluff sell wall is to cause other people to panic sell because they see your wall and think the price cannot rise.  You place smaller buy orders below the price and hope that you catch this panic selling.  Once you do, you remove the sell wall and allow the price to rise, while the panic sellers are upset.  The goal of the wall is to get your limit orders filled at a better price.

If it works, its a way to buy cheaper. 

Sometimes it fails because a whale actually munches your wall, then you are sad.



Its hard to tell if a wall is real or fake.  Usually if a wall stays in place for a long time its real.  Usually if you buy part of a wall and its fake, the rest of it will be removed.   

There can be fake buy walls as well as fake sell walls, the goal of fake buy walsl is to allow the person to sell some at a higher price. 

Thanks for your response. So can anyone put up a fake wall or do you have to have the potential resources to do so before Poloniex allows you to do it? In other words, can only real whales put up fake walls?
Lastly, are walls, either fake or real, an issue for all currencies or is Monero blighted by them more than most?

There is no such thing as a fake wall. All walls are 100% real. If you place a wall to sell 10k XMR you must own 10k XMR (or use lending / margin). Same with placing a buy wall.

[Billy Bunter]

i forgot to add my usual "i have no idea what im talking about" disclaimer. Im just callin em as I sees em. And I have no idea whats going on at the moment. This market is crazy. I don't give money advice, but the best thing for your piece of mind is to buy a little bit everyday - known as cost averaging.

Actually, the best thing to do is buy hardware to mine monero. That way if the price ever crashes and monero is worth as much as the bits on the blockchain, you can then sell your hardware to someone who wants to play games on their computer. On top of that, you support the network and make the network more secure. Our hashrate is paltry for something as powerful as Monero.

No, I get it - I'm not here for financial advice. I've made my Monero bed and I'm happy to lie in it. I do run a node, though I don't mine. As to my last question, do you think Monero suffers from walls more than other coins? I see much greater movement in the other top 10 coins, whereas Monero seems stuck in a relatively narrow band.

My favorite theory is that botnet operators intentionally keep the price low to keep the GPU miners away from the coin. This assumes that Monero will have an inevitable rise in price. But in this scenario with an inevitable rise in price, you try to keep the mining network as small as possible so your botnets can mine a greater percentage of the supply.

When monero reaches 5 - 10$ (or something), the GPU farmers will come in and eat the hashrate (I don't know where they are now... ethereum, decred, dash, maybe some litecoin still). Monero is the *only* cpu-mineable coin that is worth *anything*, so if I was a botnet operator I would protect the longevity of my resource... in this case, my theory is that they protect the longevity of their exploitation of the mine by keeping it unnattractive for the high-power (meaning, watts) miners.

and these bonnet operators have lots of monero (in this hypothetical scenario).

But this is purely speculation.

Well that sounds very reasonable. But at some point, even the botnets will want the price to rise, right? Ultimately it's in their interest also.

[Monerobuyer0]

Thanks for your response. So can anyone put up a fake wall or do you have to have the potential resources to do so before Poloniex allows you to do it? In other words, can only real whales put up fake walls?
Lastly, are walls, either fake or real, an issue for all currencies or is Monero blighted by them more than most?

Anyone can put up a wall if they have the monero to do so, or the btc for a buywall.  You just have to put an order on the book.
Obviously you cannot put up a 40k sell wall without actually having 40k monero.  (You could do it with margin by borrowing, but you would be paying interest to keep it there, and would get wrecked if it was bought).

All orders are 'real' while they are up on the book.  By saying a wall is 'fake' or 'real', I mean that the creator of the wall secretly doesnt want a fake wall to execute, and would remove the order if they thought it was going to execute.  The risk of a fake wall is that anyone can go buy it at any time its up there, and then the order becomes very real indeed.

In the stock markets, doing that would be illegal (but most of the time there wouldnt be a way to catch you).  



Monero has had a lot of big sell walls recently, over the past few weeks.  But its not the onyl coin where this happens, it happens in most.

[smoothie]

Would you say the same thing if there was a XMR bully bull whale?

PirateAt40 got burned because he thought he could hold the BTC price down in 2012.

I look at it as there is no manipulation if they bought their XMR legitimately. The price of XMR is what the price is right now.

Just my TWO 0.02XMR.

The solution is still the same: buy every spot Monero you can, don't use margin, and never capitulate your position once you own a spot Monero - regardless of what the (heavily manipulated) market depth is showing.  
  
Take XMRs one-by-one from those who either don't want them (and don't understand what they are holding), or those who would use their XMR to try to acquire more cheaper.  Then never give it back; it's simple.  Pennies now are thousands of dollars later.

You never directly answered my question. My question was in regards to your previous statement that I bolded which you subsequently removed in your quote.

Looks like the price shot up.  

[Hueristic]

Boy did I hit that overnight dip close or what! I just wish someone had hit me up for a OTB trade.

I need Moar!  Before I spend it at the casino!

[dEBRUYNE]

PSA: Users, (solo)miners, exchanges/merchants, and pooloperators must be on 0.9.x (preferably 0.9.2) in advance of the hardfork otherwise you will get forked/booted off the network. If you are mining on one of the following pools, please contact your poolop immediately or switch to another pool.


Approximately the 23th of March there will be a hardfork on the Monero network. Most pools have upgraded, but some have not yet. If they don't upgrade before the hardfork they will get forked/booted off the network. As a result you will miss out on revenue if you are mining on these pools. Thus, if you are mining on the following pools, please contact your pool owner as soon as possible and urge them to upgrade. Alternatively, you can switch to a pool that is on the right version.

FYI: You can plug the blockheader of your pool into "http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/hash_of_blockheader". The minor_version must show "minor_version: 2". This means that the pool is on the right version. If it shows "0" or "1" the pool is on an outdated version. An example of a pool on the right version (Monerohash):

http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/2a88740443bf654e595bba7061509e6a3a80623da5de2478c4a90b45454a7fa8

List of pools that haven't upgraded yet:

• http://cryptonotepool.org.uk/ | Blockheader: http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/064901fae3c4c1f42a10ca066e367ff277b1ae255043e17fad0695b9da775030 | Contact: http://cryptonotepool.org.uk/#community
• http://xmr.alimabi.cn/ | Blockheader: http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/612eeb758358ffa8af784c6c12c59b7cc038474fe525b5d7794be30f585f941c | Contact: http://xmr.alimabi.cn/#support
• http://cryptmonero.com/ | Blockheader: http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/b98ebc9fc8674c2b6cfa303cd9d8770f9187e87664f8acf93446b2ff7e15674b | Contact: http://cryptmonero.com/#support
• https://minergate.com/pool-stats/mro | Blockheader: http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/2fb5df3e2967a7679ad5ff6848b6b5eb3cb071ba31e3e84a16b95b7d7c421dd2 | Contact: https://minergate.com/
• If you are mining on a private pool, please check the block header manually (if the pool is on the right version) using the method I described.

List of pools that have upgraded:

You can find most pools here:

https://monerohash.com/#network

Some of the aforementioned pools are listed there as well. If you are switching, avoid the aforementioned pools.


Binaries:

Monero v0.9.2 - Hydrogen Helix - released! (Urgent and important bug fixes for the upcoming hard fork)

https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/releases/tag/v0.9.2

<fluffypony> will do shasums / gpg signed mesage tomorrow

Information from Github:

This has urgent and important bug fixes to 0.9.0 Hydrogen Helix

• Major performance and size improvements to the LMDB database implementation
• Urgent and important bug fixes for the upcoming hard fork
• Huge bug fixes to the database hard fork handling
• New simplewallet flag to restore from keys
• Initial work on a wallet library / API
• Updated in-source block headers

General hardfork information:

Background:

https://forum.getmonero.org/4/academic-and-technical/303/a-formal-approach-towards-better-hard-fork-management

What are the change(s) with the upcoming hard fork on the 20th of March?

• Blocktime is bumped from 1 to 2 minutes. See:

https://forum.getmonero.org/20/general-discussion/2401/increasing-the-block-time

• Minimum blocksize is bumped to 60 KB. See:

https://forum.getmonero.org/20/general-discussion/2409/increasing-the-minimum-block-size

A big advantage of this is that current individual transactions that sometimes won't go through (because they are a bit above the median due to many outputs (e.g. dust), or the daemon / MyMonero rejects them for some reason) can easily be included in the block without incurring a penalty. Above is a bit of a blunt explanation, I am sure one of the core-team members / developers could give you a more detailed explanation.

• Finally, the recommendations from the MRL team stated in MRL-0004, of which the minimum mixin >= 3 is probably the most salient. See:

https://lab.getmonero.org/pubs/MRL-0004.pdf

P.S. Due to variance the hard fork will likely be on the 21th or 22th of March. A specific block height was determined for the hardfork, not a specific date. The specific blockheight for the hardfork can be found here:

https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/blob/master/src/cryptonote_core/blockchain.cpp#L83

// version 2 starts from block 1009827

P.P.S. As long as you are on any 0.9.x version in advance of the hardfork you are fine.

[smoothie]

Boy did I hit that overnight dip close or what! I just wish someone had hit me up for a OTB trade.

I need Moar!  Before I spend it at the casino!

OTB = Over the Border trade?   

[TrueCryptonaire]

Looks like the triangle is getting tighter and tighter before breaking. If it goes up from here (which it probably do - as said many times here, there is too much competition for the coins at lower prices) it will get to a serious war zone with heavy battle as next stop is try to break the high of 2015.

[Billy Bunter]

Thanks for your response. So can anyone put up a fake wall or do you have to have the potential resources to do so before Poloniex allows you to do it? In other words, can only real whales put up fake walls?
Lastly, are walls, either fake or real, an issue for all currencies or is Monero blighted by them more than most?

Anyone can put up a wall if they have the monero to do so, or the btc for a buywall.  You just have to put an order on the book.
Obviously you cannot put up a 40k sell wall without actually having 40k monero.  (You could do it with margin by borrowing, but you would be paying interest to keep it there, and would get wrecked if it was bought).

All orders are 'real' while they are up on the book.  By saying a wall is 'fake' or 'real', I mean that the creator of the wall secretly doesnt want a fake wall to execute, and would remove the order if they thought it was going to execute.  The risk of a fake wall is that anyone can go buy it at any time its up there, and then the order becomes very real indeed.

In the stock markets, doing that would be illegal (but most of the time there wouldnt be a way to catch you).  



Monero has had a lot of big sell walls recently, over the past few weeks.  But its not the onyl coin where this happens, it happens in most.

Thanks. That helps to dampen my paranoia a little. 

[nioc]

Today,
Price gets knocked down, no problem, when I get home I'll transfer some btc and buy me some more Moneroj.
Get home to see big green dildo so no buy oppurtunity for me, no problem, my Monero house is worth more.
Good fundamentals + hodling = no problem

[bitjedi]

Today,
Price gets knocked down, no problem, when I get home I'll transfer some btc and buy me some more Moneroj.
Get home to see big green dildo so no buy oppurtunity for me, no problem, my Monero house is worth more.
Good fundamentals + hodling = no problem

my problem is that i read about xmr and discovered it's the best anonymous coin and so i buy but cant sell.  im found myself digging i to my btc cold storage to switch a good % to xmr. i feel that it's worth many times more than it's trading now but also feel happy that i can buy more cheaply here.

[iCEBREAKER]

PSA: Users, (solo)miners, exchanges/merchants, and pooloperators must be on 0.9.x (preferably 0.9.2) in advance of the hardfork otherwise you will get forked/booted off the network. If you are mining on one of the following pools, please contact your poolop immediately or switch to another pool.

List of pools that haven't upgraded yet:

• http://cryptonotepool.org.uk/ | Blockheader: http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/064901fae3c4c1f42a10ca066e367ff277b1ae255043e17fad0695b9da775030 | Contact: http://cryptonotepool.org.uk/#community
• https://minergate.com/pool-stats/mro | Blockheader: http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/2fb5df3e2967a7679ad5ff6848b6b5eb3cb071ba31e3e84a16b95b7d7c421dd2 | Contact: https://minergate.com/

I use the cryptonotepool because it supports the devs, but they have low hashrate.

OTOH Minergate is ~1/14 of the network!  If they are the go-to pool for bot herders (nice web miner!) it will be interesting to see if it stops the dumping, as GPU hoarders take over their absent portion of the global hashrate.

[dEBRUYNE]

PSA: Users, (solo)miners, exchanges/merchants, and pooloperators must be on 0.9.x (preferably 0.9.2) in advance of the hardfork otherwise you will get forked/booted off the network. If you are mining on one of the following pools, please contact your poolop immediately or switch to another pool.

List of pools that haven't upgraded yet:

• http://cryptonotepool.org.uk/ | Blockheader: http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/064901fae3c4c1f42a10ca066e367ff277b1ae255043e17fad0695b9da775030 | Contact: http://cryptonotepool.org.uk/#community
• https://minergate.com/pool-stats/mro | Blockheader: http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/2fb5df3e2967a7679ad5ff6848b6b5eb3cb071ba31e3e84a16b95b7d7c421dd2 | Contact: https://minergate.com/

I use the cryptonotepool because it supports the devs, but they have low hashrate.

OTOH Minergate is ~1/14 of the network!  If they are the go-to pool for bot herders (nice web miner!) it will be interesting to see if it stops the dumping, as GPU hoarders take over their absent portion of the global hashrate.

Minergate kind of confirmed to the core-team they would upgrade before the hardfork. However, until they really have upgraded I'll include them into the PSA. If pools upgrade I'll take them out of the PSA.

[Dotto]

KABOOOOOOM

[nioc]

KABOOOOOOM

You seemed quite sure that something was going to happen but unsure of up or down.  Why not both

[vuduchyld]

Soooooo....Monero is NINTH in volume on Poloniex right now?  At 1124 BTC traded in the last 24 hours?

What in the heck is up with all the volume across so many different alts?

EDIT:  and the order book is jumping like crazy, from 425 BTC of buy orders this morning to 1100 a few hours ago to 700 now.

[aminorex]

Soooooo....Monero is NINTH in volume on Poloniex right now?  At 1124 BTC traded in the last 24 hours?

What in the heck is up with all the volume across so many different alts?

Ethereum profits have to go somewhere.  XMR is still pretty low visibility.  I think most people discover it because of price spikes on poloniex.  Ethereum is the headline draw. XMR is the tortoise.

There was a big wall at 220k which got pulled.  Whatevs.  I mean, what is the point of a wall 30% off the market?  It did seem to discourage some buying though, when it was pulled.  I was surprised at that.  The silliness of human behaviour never ceases to amaze me.

[Monerobuyer0]

Boy did I hit that overnight dip close or what! I just wish someone had hit me up for a OTB trade.

I need Moar!  Before I spend it at the casino!

Grats, you managed to be the last person to sell and then rebuy with any significant amount of volume.

[lolikop]

Price should be pumped to 5$ and stabilize there this is nothing

[iCEBREAKER]

KABOOOOOOM

I love the sound of legit coins such as Monero taking off, while the Maid and Dash scams implode into great bloody heaps of FAIL.   

Today's 99bitcoins article basically endorses Monero as the best way to unlink/untaint Bitcoins, and that site gets a TON of traffic from their ingenious/hilarious BitcoinObituaries.com redirect (as well as the well written and informative content).

It will take time for the article to be passed around, read, and acted upon.  Plus more time for receptive readers to move their BTC to Polo and buy coins.  But the resulting long BOOOOOOOOOM has already started.

How long until most DMN stop sending/receiving BTC directly, and only use shapeshifted XMR for in/out flows?  Soon?  Two Weeks?

ATH and oz/silver parity parties to be held at Monero Manor and Monero Mountain!