[XMR] Monero Speculation

[meme magic]

Groteske buy wall at .002

could be used also to keep up the bids while Wallzilla dumps at market

yup.

it can also be used to keep confidence high while said dumps lower the price gracefully, so that buying can resume.

[1715011440]

1715011440

[1715011440]

1715011440

[1715011440]

1715011440

[1715011440]

1715011440

[Dotto]

I am still freaked out by the total volume in alts. Does it not seem fishy to anybody else?

Yeah, I don't understand how over 560,000 XMR have been traded in the last 24hr on Polo and yet the total sell order book is only around 310,000 XMR and the price has not moved at all.  

Well, It has moved a lot, but now is the same... however my amount of moneros now is like 15% bigger  

[Quicken]

I just really hate this XMR bully whale.  I watch as he/she/it ruthlessly works the stack for profit, using their hundreds of thousands of Monero to (try to) force holders to capitulate their positions, all the while scraping the asks and picking up cheaper ones - before releasing their price suppression walls just long enough to bully down any new exuberance.  
  
You say consolidation is good, but what is not good is when a community can't even discern something's true price because it constantly gets forcefully manipulated.  I just long for the day when one of the Bitcoin whales decides to make a grand entry into Monero and soaks up every single XMR being used for price suppression for good.  
  
Until then the only answer is for HODL'ers not to give these tactics a single inch.  Buy every spot Monero you can afford, attack fake ask walls when you see them, and never try to flip out of a position to get a lower price.  If we as a community show these asses that these tactics aren't profitable, they'll stop.

There's a 600 BTC buy order in at 2 mBTC (300k XMR). Whale alert!

Edit - clearly spotted by others earlier. ht TheKoziTwo. Bigger now though...

[TrueCryptonaire]

I just really hate this XMR bully whale.  I watch as he/she/it ruthlessly works the stack for profit, using their hundreds of thousands of Monero to (try to) force holders to capitulate their positions, all the while scraping the asks and picking up cheaper ones - before releasing their price suppression walls just long enough to bully down any new exuberance.  
  
You say consolidation is good, but what is not good is when a community can't even discern something's true price because it constantly gets forcefully manipulated.  I just long for the day when one of the Bitcoin whales decides to make a grand entry into Monero and soaks up every single XMR being used for price suppression for good.  
  
Until then the only answer is for HODL'ers not to give these tactics a single inch.  Buy every spot Monero you can afford, attack fake ask walls when you see them, and never try to flip out of a position to get a lower price.  If we as a community show these asses that these tactics aren't profitable, they'll stop.

There's a 600 BTC buy order in at 2 mBTC (300k XMR). Whale alert!

Despite the bullish wall is so low it still is something worth seeing in XMR. Cool that there are demand for Moneros.

[americanpegasus]

There's a 600 BTC buy order in at 2 mBTC (300k XMR). Whale alert!

Not that the other way is good either - fake bid walls and pumps don't help the currency either and only further obscure price discovery.  
  
But I'm over it - I played some more agar.io last night and realized that a big bubble (whale) can't help doing big bubble things.  They got that way by not getting eaten as a tiny bubble, eventually making their way to a medium sized bubble, and once they succeeded they found themselves as a whale bubble.  
  
They can't help the game is fundamentally different for them due to their size.  
  
I guess I just hope eventually we have enough competing interests in XMR that regardless of the number of whales the price action will remain organic.
  

[Melbustus]

I am still freaked out by the total volume in alts. Does it not seem fishy to anybody else?

I'm willing to accept the premise that it seems to be flowing from ETH as that dump continues. But if you look back to January 1st, the total market cap in alts has gone from less than a billion to more than $1.5 billion. That's a 30%+ jump and it's more than $500 million in new money.

Where is THAT coming from...and WHY? That's a pretty big reallocation of capital, but from where? Doesn't seem like it could be hedge funds and other financial players because Central banks are in stimulus mode.

A lot of that is out of thin air. Just because marketcap goes up 500 million does not mean 500 million was invested. The value was created from a much smaller amount of money being used to push prices up. In fact a lot of altcoins are premined so hard that the founders can push the marketcap to millions of dollars with only a few thousand dollars worth of investment.  It's pretty artificial.

This.

I think it's reasonable to assume that the big FUD storm regarding bitcoin blocksize had made more bitcoiners interested in diversifying into altcoins, I've notice a trend of high profile bitcoin figures voicing support for various altcoins or jumping on the BTC FUD train.

"FUD train" is a bit dismissive and papers over the fact that for the first time, Bitcoin is meaningfully handing key use-cases to alts. Core's roadmap that clearly has no regard for keeping on-chain fees as cheap as possible for as long as possible, is opening the door for alts to satisfy the demand for secure & cheap transactions. Further, Core stonewalling the community, and stagnating development that's actually meaningful to users is scary.

Thus, the key thesis that Bitcoin can and will adapt when necessary, and/or adopt innovations from alt-coins (adaptive blocksize anyone?) when it's clearly advantageous to do so, is now empirically in question.

So you can count me as one of the people who's been staunchly Bitcoiin-maximalist for *years*, but is now questioning Bitcoin's direction in a fundamental way that I have not before. There hasn't been an event in Bitcoin, until now, which threatens to fundamentally change Bitcoin's longterm vision and key value. So it's pretty darn reasonable for people to start looking elsewhere. I personally haven't converted any cold-storage BTC to alts, but as you note, I'm seeing long-time Bitcoiners do so (or at least talk about it) for the first time. Core and supporters may want to take notice before the reality that Bitcoin is not operating in a competition-free vacuum hits them in the face. There's still time to fix this. But not much.

[Quicken]

There's a 600 BTC buy order in at 2 mBTC (300k XMR). Whale alert!

Not that the other way is good either - fake bid walls and pumps don't help the currency either and only further obscure price discovery.  
  
But I'm over it - I played some more agar.io last night and realized that a big bubble (whale) can't help doing big bubble things.  They got that way by not getting eaten as a tiny bubble, eventually making their way to a medium sized bubble, and once they succeeded they found themselves as a whale bubble.  
  
They can't help the game is fundamentally different for them due to their size.  
  
I guess I just hope eventually we have enough competing interests in XMR that regardless of the number of whales the price action will remain organic.
  

MAID also got a 1600 BTC bid wall today. Whale's out to play?

[Drhiggins]

PSA: Users, (solo)miners, exchanges/merchants, and pooloperators must be on 0.9.x (preferably 0.9.2) in advance of the hardfork otherwise you will get forked/booted off the network. If you are mining on one of the following pools, please contact your poolop immediately or switch to another pool.

List of pools that haven't upgraded yet:

• http://cryptonotepool.org.uk/ | Blockheader: http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/064901fae3c4c1f42a10ca066e367ff277b1ae255043e17fad0695b9da775030 | Contact: http://cryptonotepool.org.uk/#community
• https://minergate.com/pool-stats/mro | Blockheader: http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/2fb5df3e2967a7679ad5ff6848b6b5eb3cb071ba31e3e84a16b95b7d7c421dd2 | Contact: https://minergate.com/

I use the cryptonotepool because it supports the devs, but they have low hashrate.

OTOH Minergate is ~1/14 of the network!  If they are the go-to pool for bot herders (nice web miner!) it will be interesting to see if it stops the dumping, as GPU hoarders take over their absent portion of the global hashrate.

Over all the hash rate across the network has been down the last 2 weeks, even with the rise in price of XMR.  This is something I monitor each day, just to keep an eye out for GPU farms turning their miners to Monero.  I hope they never do but with the rise in price its just a matter of time.   

[americanpegasus]

Why would you hope they don't?  We should want every single CPU and GPU possible pointed at our network.  The more people competing on the network, the more secure the network, and the higher the inherent value of Monero.  
  
You don't think we can become a global currency with a 15 mh/s network do you?  No, we will eventually need to scale up to terahashes and petahashes.  One day, twenty years from now, nuclear powered computers might exist solely to mine Monero.

[Quicken]

Why would you hope they don't?  We should want every single CPU and GPU possible pointed at our network.  The more people competing on the network, the more secure the network, and the higher the inherent value of Monero.

Presumably because Drhiggins mines...

[Drhiggins]

Why would you hope they don't?  We should want every single CPU and GPU possible pointed at our network.  The more people competing on the network, the more secure the network, and the higher the inherent value of Monero.

Presumably because Drhiggins mines...

^^Exactly and my greedy ass wants it all.  We are all here because somewhere inside lies a greed gene.   LOL    I do like other aspects of Monero and those reasons are why I'm here as well.  Yes in the future I would hope that more mine the XMR as emissions will ramp down and I realize this will help the coin.  For now as long as the price is under $5  all those GPU farms can get the hell on out of here.  I'm like a Ferengi and I adhere to the Rules of Acquisition LOL.    Greed is Eternal

http://www.sjtrek.com/trek/rules/

[Monerobuyer0]

So you can count me as one of the people who's been staunchly Bitcoiin-maximalist for *years*, but is now questioning Bitcoin's direction in a fundamental way that I have not before. There hasn't been an event in Bitcoin, until now, which threatens to fundamentally change Bitcoin's longterm vision and key value. So it's pretty darn reasonable for people to start looking elsewhere. I personally haven't converted any cold-storage BTC to alts, but as you note, I'm seeing long-time Bitcoiners do so (or at least talk about it) for the first time. Core and supporters may want to take notice before the reality that Bitcoin is not operating in a competition-free vacuum hits them in the face. There's still time to fix this. But not much.

The Monero devs are working hard to perfect Monero so that it is ready to fulfill the initial vision of bitcoin, before it was taken over by money interests.  Back when Bitcoin was supposed to be anonymous and the community was full of people who were interested inthe technology instead of just getting rich fast. 

If BTC fails to adapt due to these conflicts, the long term bitcoin community will be able to choose between stuff like ETH which is an ICO premine that might not even work, or they will be able to choose Monero, and it will be like Bitcoin in 2010 again, except that there is an adaptive blocksize, tail emission so you dont have to support the network with fees alone, and true privacy, so coinbase doesn't shut down your account for spending your bitcoins in unapproved ways.


I hope for the future of crypto and the world that we choose Monero. 


Right now its easy for a former bitcoin maximalist to get into Monero and hedge this possibility.  Just .3% of your BTC and you have an equal stake in Monero.    Or you can go bigger and increase your overall stake in the scenario that Monero succeeds.  By the time most bitcoiners realize that this is something they need to do, it will be much riskier and cost them a greater portion of their BTC to hedge. 

[dEBRUYNE]

Bump, none of the pools have upgraded yet. However, Minergate said they will upgrade soon, see:

https://twitter.com/MinerGate/status/710727384136335361

PSA: Users, (solo)miners, exchanges/merchants, and pooloperators must be on 0.9.x (preferably 0.9.2) in advance of the hardfork otherwise you will get forked/booted off the network. If you are mining on one of the following pools, please contact your poolop immediately or switch to another pool.


Approximately the 23th of March there will be a hardfork on the Monero network. Most pools have upgraded, but some have not yet. If they don't upgrade before the hardfork they will get forked/booted off the network. As a result you will miss out on revenue if you are mining on these pools. Thus, if you are mining on the following pools, please contact your pool owner as soon as possible and urge them to upgrade. Alternatively, you can switch to a pool that is on the right version.

FYI: You can plug the blockheader of your pool into "http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/hash_of_blockheader". The minor_version must show "minor_version: 2". This means that the pool is on the right version. If it shows "0" or "1" the pool is on an outdated version. An example of a pool on the right version (Monerohash):

http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/2a88740443bf654e595bba7061509e6a3a80623da5de2478c4a90b45454a7fa8

List of pools that haven't upgraded yet:

• http://cryptonotepool.org.uk/ | Blockheader: http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/064901fae3c4c1f42a10ca066e367ff277b1ae255043e17fad0695b9da775030 | Contact: http://cryptonotepool.org.uk/#community
• http://xmr.alimabi.cn/ | Blockheader: http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/612eeb758358ffa8af784c6c12c59b7cc038474fe525b5d7794be30f585f941c | Contact: http://xmr.alimabi.cn/#support
• http://cryptmonero.com/ | Blockheader: http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/b98ebc9fc8674c2b6cfa303cd9d8770f9187e87664f8acf93446b2ff7e15674b | Contact: http://cryptmonero.com/#support
• https://minergate.com/pool-stats/mro | Blockheader: http://moneroblocks.info/api/get_block_header/2fb5df3e2967a7679ad5ff6848b6b5eb3cb071ba31e3e84a16b95b7d7c421dd2 | Contact: https://minergate.com/
• If you are mining on a private pool, please check the block header manually (if the pool is on the right version) using the method I described.

List of pools that have upgraded:

You can find most pools here:

https://monerohash.com/#network

Some of the aforementioned pools are listed there as well. If you are switching, avoid the aforementioned pools.


Binaries:

Monero v0.9.2 - Hydrogen Helix - released! (Urgent and important bug fixes for the upcoming hard fork)

https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/releases/tag/v0.9.2

<fluffypony> will do shasums / gpg signed mesage tomorrow

Information from Github:

This has urgent and important bug fixes to 0.9.0 Hydrogen Helix

• Major performance and size improvements to the LMDB database implementation
• Urgent and important bug fixes for the upcoming hard fork
• Huge bug fixes to the database hard fork handling
• New simplewallet flag to restore from keys
• Initial work on a wallet library / API
• Updated in-source block headers

General hardfork information:

Background:

https://forum.getmonero.org/4/academic-and-technical/303/a-formal-approach-towards-better-hard-fork-management

What are the change(s) with the upcoming hard fork on the 20th of March?

• Blocktime is bumped from 1 to 2 minutes. See:

https://forum.getmonero.org/20/general-discussion/2401/increasing-the-block-time

• Minimum blocksize is bumped to 60 KB. See:

https://forum.getmonero.org/20/general-discussion/2409/increasing-the-minimum-block-size

A big advantage of this is that current individual transactions that sometimes won't go through (because they are a bit above the median due to many outputs (e.g. dust), or the daemon / MyMonero rejects them for some reason) can easily be included in the block without incurring a penalty. Above is a bit of a blunt explanation, I am sure one of the core-team members / developers could give you a more detailed explanation.

• Finally, the recommendations from the MRL team stated in MRL-0004, of which the minimum mixin >= 3 is probably the most salient. See:

https://lab.getmonero.org/pubs/MRL-0004.pdf

P.S. Due to variance the hard fork will likely be on the 21th or 22th of March. A specific block height was determined for the hardfork, not a specific date. The specific blockheight for the hardfork can be found here:

https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/blob/master/src/cryptonote_core/blockchain.cpp#L83

// version 2 starts from block 1009827

P.P.S. As long as you are on any 0.9.x version in advance of the hardfork you are fine.

[vuduchyld]

So you can count me as one of the people who's been staunchly Bitcoiin-maximalist for *years*, but is now questioning Bitcoin's direction in a fundamental way that I have not before. There hasn't been an event in Bitcoin, until now, which threatens to fundamentally change Bitcoin's longterm vision and key value. So it's pretty darn reasonable for people to start looking elsewhere. I personally haven't converted any cold-storage BTC to alts, but as you note, I'm seeing long-time Bitcoiners do so (or at least talk about it) for the first time. Core and supporters may want to take notice before the reality that Bitcoin is not operating in a competition-free vacuum hits them in the face. There's still time to fix this. But not much.

The Monero devs are working hard to perfect Monero so that it is ready to fulfill the initial vision of bitcoin, before it was taken over by money interests.  Back when Bitcoin was supposed to be anonymous and the community was full of people who were interested inthe technology instead of just getting rich fast. 

If BTC fails to adapt due to these conflicts, the long term bitcoin community will be able to choose between stuff like ETH which is an ICO premine that might not even work, or they will be able to choose Monero, and it will be like Bitcoin in 2010 again, except that there is an adaptive blocksize, tail emission so you dont have to support the network with fees alone, and true privacy, so coinbase doesn't shut down your account for spending your bitcoins in unapproved ways.


I hope for the future of crypto and the world that we choose Monero. 


Right now its easy for a former bitcoin maximalist to get into Monero and hedge this possibility.  Just .3% of your BTC and you have an equal stake in Monero.    Or you can go bigger and increase your overall stake in the scenario that Monero succeeds.  By the time most bitcoiners realize that this is something they need to do, it will be much riskier and cost them a greater portion of their BTC to hedge. 

Hall of Fame post right there!

[Dotto]

The 200k buy wall is so big now that it is literaly off charts. Scary.

[Monerobuyer0]

The 200k buy wall is so big now that it is literaly off charts. Scary.

This is exactly what we were talking about regarding 'fake walls' earlier. 

If someone wanted to buy 400000 Monero, they would not put up a buy order like this.  The only thing such a huge buy order does is trick others into buying.  He probably has no intention of spending those 500 btc on Monero.


The person who put up the wall might simply be trying to trick people into driving up the price to some leve where he will sell, and then once he sells he will remove the buy order.


The wall is far away from the price, and unlikely to be touched.  So he feels safe with his large wall because no one will market dump 400000 monero into it at 200k.  But if the price got down near the wall, he would probably remove it.


Its easy to get manipulated/tricked by fake walls.  If you saw this wall and market bought Monero because of it, driving up the price, then you got tricked and are doing what the whale wants. 

[bitebits]

Going to spam this place only once, but the offer is still valid. Two days remaining
(node has been upgraded to the latest version 0.9.2)

Support the Monero network by hiring a pre-installed full node for just 4$

Recently I switched provider (more expensive, higher specs for simultaneously running a Bitcoin node) and I was wondering what to do with my current Monero node. It hurts a bit to just let it go, especially because it just runs great and is cheap. It is hosted at MikroVPS.eu for 4$ per month and they accept bitcoin (and so Monero through XMR.to).

So I was thinking there may be more users like me (I struggled hard but had great help from the community), who would like to support the Monero network but are not that much experienced configuring a Linux server. Therefore I would like to check if there is any interest in extending a fully hosted Monero node:

You can pay the equivalent of 4$ in Monero or Bitcoin, and the node will run for another whole month. You can check whether it is online here (just zoom in a little bit) since it is the only node running in the area.

Specs of the node, still valid till 2016-03-21
- 25 GB harddisk
- 512 MB RAM
- 250 GB bandwidth
- Ubuntu Linux 15.10 x64
- IP: 185.112.158.127

The Monero node is running from Hungaria, Budapest and is nicely filling up a gap on the map of Europe:


Some statistics of the last few weeks:


Monero address: 45dBwTfM1oFGVWEosmtxTeEXQpWMvvzf8cPaELkNsebNPZMcRaX3P8V1eF5afBS9LW1xJbMPYkteM8W bbu56K9kJSwvSrrB
Bitcoin address: 1B3cZEg1oGnXpgjhkTJGpP9G4LNPWTXk1D

[TrueCryptonaire]

The 200k buy wall is so big now that it is literaly off charts. Scary.

This is exactly what we were talking about regarding 'fake walls' earlier. 

If someone wanted to buy 400000 Monero, they would not put up a buy order like this.  The only thing such a huge buy order does is trick others into buying.  He probably has no intention of spending those 500 btc on Monero.


The person who put up the wall might simply be trying to trick people into driving up the price to some leve where he will sell, and then once he sells he will remove the buy order.


The wall is far away from the price, and unlikely to be touched.  So he feels safe with his large wall because no one will market dump 400000 monero into it at 200k.  But if the price got down near the wall, he would probably remove it.


Its easy to get manipulated/tricked by fake walls.  If you saw this wall and market bought Monero because of it, driving up the price, then you got tricked and are doing what the whale wants. 

But on the other hand, if someone is bullish on Monero and looking for an exit, he will drive the price up in one way or another => the wall is a bullish sign.

[luigi1111]

Going to spam this place only once, but the offer is still valid. Two days remaining
(node has been upgraded to the latest version 0.9.2)

Monero address: 45dBwTfM1oFGVWEosmtxTeEXQpWMvvzf8cPaELkNsebNPZMcRaX3P8V1eF5afBS9LW1xJbMPYkteM8W bbu56K9kJSwvSrrB
Bitcoin address: 1B3cZEg1oGnXpgjhkTJGpP9G4LNPWTXk1D

I sent 4 XMR.

[bitebits]

Going to spam this place only once, but the offer is still valid. Two days remaining
(node has been upgraded to the latest version 0.9.2)

Monero address: 45dBwTfM1oFGVWEosmtxTeEXQpWMvvzf8cPaELkNsebNPZMcRaX3P8V1eF5afBS9LW1xJbMPYkteM8W bbu56K9kJSwvSrrB
Bitcoin address: 1B3cZEg1oGnXpgjhkTJGpP9G4LNPWTXk1D

I sent 4 XMR.

That is just awesome, thanks for your support luigi1111. The Monero node will run for another full month!
Used XMR.to to pay the VPS in bitcoin, anonymously and instantly! It still feels like magic to me.