[XMR] Monero Speculation

[nioc]

Well said iCEBREAKER.

This buy wall is really insane why is there a wall at least as big as the natural bid volumes

No one can know for sure, but I would guess its either to tempt big holders who want out to sell to them at decent discount, or to prop up trading above the wall so that they can exit their existing position at higher price.

Those reasons are probably the most likely. Also since there is no confirm button when you trade on poloniex, an accident where you market buy or sell could potentially happen. To minimize the risk many will place either a buy order or sell order far away from current market price. I do this myself, in fact more than 100 BTC of that wall is mine. But I also placed my bid exactly on that price for fun. Which brings us another reason. Sometimes people place a big wall for lulz. It's fun to see people's reaction to crazy things.

I haven't been on Polo in many months and it boggles the mind this is still the case.

BTW Einstein had something to say about ether.  I bookmarked it a while ago before I heard of ETH, never read it because I forgot about it.
 http://www-history.mcs.st-andrews.ac.uk/Extras/Einstein_ether.html

[BellaBitBit]

Wow I just looked at poloniex today the bid volumes more than doubled!

And its all in one buy order that can be removed at the whim of one entity.

How much of a downward motion would this create if they decided to get out? 

[explorer]

Wow I just looked at poloniex today the bid volumes more than doubled!

And its all in one buy order that can be removed at the whim of one entity.

How much of a downward motion would this create if they decided to get out? 

It's far enough from market price that I don't think it would have much effect.  More of a curiosity than anything.  Now if it moved up, closer to market, that might have some stimulative effect.

[aminorex]

How much of a downward motion would this create if they decided to get out?  

A bid is evidence of a capability to buy in.  An ask is evidence of a capability to sell out.  Showing evidence of funds on one side does not imply funds on the other side.  One must resort to second-level gaming to infer the opposite.  Additional levels of gaming just result in compounding the inversions of logic with exponentially decreasing probability of accuracy.

500 btc would sweep the book to .004.  The offer has left the book anyhow.  The effect was an upturn in the very short-term price trend.

Sometimes a large order will result in the market fleeing the wall.  Sometimes it will result in the market seeking out the wall.  It depends on what polar flavor of liquidity is yearning to breathe free, and at what price.  So far from the top of the book, it will cause ripples, but can actually stabilize things while everyone waits for a shoe to drop.

[dEBRUYNE]

Bump, none of the pools have upgraded yet.

To clarify this, you meant that none of the unupgraded pools have upgraded since your previous post. In fact most of the pools already upgraded some time ago.

Yes, thanks for clarifying my comment. I'll post a more clarifying comment in my bump post tomorrow.

[dEBRUYNE]

Crosspost:

Monero-ers in Japan, let's meet up when my wife and I are there in a week-and-a-half's time:)

Post: https://forum.getmonero.org/11/meta/2511/monero-in-japan

[boolberry]

Crosspost:

Monero-ers in Japan, let's meet up when my wife and I are there in a week-and-a-half's time:)

Post: https://forum.getmonero.org/11/meta/2511/monero-in-japan

That sounds like fun! I wish I could attend

[hitchingAride]

are you guys loaning out on polo ive been collecting at around like 0.02% rate wish it could be higher.

[explorer]

are you guys loaning out on polo ive been collecting at around like 0.02% rate wish it could be higher.

Is the rate for specified term, or compounded daily, or? 

[smooth]

are you guys loaning out on polo ive been collecting at around like 0.02% rate wish it could be higher.

Is the rate for specified term, or compounded daily, or? 

It is a daily rate for a maximum term that you specify. The borrower can pay back early. There is no compounding until the loan is paid back and you reinvest the proceeds (at the then-available rate).

[explorer]

are you guys loaning out on polo ive been collecting at around like 0.02% rate wish it could be higher.

Is the rate for specified term, or compounded daily, or? 

It is a daily rate for a maximum term that you specify. The borrower can pay back early. There is no compounding until the loan is paid back and you reinvest the proceeds (at the then-available rate).

Huh.  Seems there are an awful lot of offers there grasping for pennies.  Hardly worth the effort?
I recall earlier posts suggesting 0.1% as a minimum asking rate, and given the particulars, that seems reasonable.  Less than that... To each his own, I guess.  Though I don't see how you could get a reasonable rate when there are plenty of offers at next to nothing.

[iCEBREAKER]

Seems there are an awful lot of offers there grasping for pennies.  Hardly worth the effort?
I recall earlier posts suggesting 0.1% as a minimum asking rate, and given the particulars, that seems reasonable.  Less than that... To each his own, I guess.  Though I don't see how you could get a reasonable rate when there are plenty of offers at next to nothing.

I tried to raise group consciousness above the 'crabs in a bucket' level, but it seems people prefer a race to the bottom mentality, as they insist on underpricing their assets and thus functionally subsidize loans.   

They won't win anything for placing in that race, because when XMR is down or flat there is no demand for loans at any rate, and when it spikes the cheap, nearly free loans are quickly gobbled up.

The winning/optimal strategy is to offer coins starting around 0.1%, ignore the shitlords grasping for pennies, let them act as cannon fodder during loan demand spikes, and sit back as those stuck defending/maintaining short positions are forced to pay reasonable rates (or cover at a loss).

[Hueristic]

Seems there are an awful lot of offers there grasping for pennies.  Hardly worth the effort?
I recall earlier posts suggesting 0.1% as a minimum asking rate, and given the particulars, that seems reasonable.  Less than that... To each his own, I guess.  Though I don't see how you could get a reasonable rate when there are plenty of offers at next to nothing.

I tried to raise group consciousness above the 'crabs in a bucket' level, but it seems people prefer a race to the bottom mentality, as they insist on underpricing their assets and thus functionally subsidize loans.   

They won't win anything for placing in that race, because when XMR is down or flat there is no demand for loans at any rate, and when it spikes the cheap, nearly free loans are quickly gobbled up.

The winning/optimal strategy is to offer coins starting around 0.1%, ignore the shitlords grasping for pennies, let them act as cannon fodder during loan demand spikes, and sit back as those stuck defending/maintaining short positions are forced to pay reasonable rates (or cover at a loss).

Word! BTW killed it tonight!

Made one bad call, had pocket kings and had to call the quad tens (3 tens on the board). Stupid but meh.

[BellaBitBit]

How much of a downward motion would this create if they decided to get out?  

A bid is evidence of a capability to buy in.  An ask is evidence of a capability to sell out.  Showing evidence of funds on one side does not imply funds on the other side.  One must resort to second-level gaming to infer the opposite.  Additional levels of gaming just result in compounding the inversions of logic with exponentially decreasing probability of accuracy.

500 btc would sweep the book to .004.  The offer has left the book anyhow.  The effect was an upturn in the very short-term price trend.

Sometimes a large order will result in the market fleeing the wall.  Sometimes it will result in the market seeking out the wall.  It depends on what polar flavor of liquidity is yearning to breathe free, and at what price.  So far from the top of the book, it will cause ripples, but can actually stabilize things while everyone waits for a shoe to drop.

Thank you for this explanation, had to read twice to absorb.  Learning more everyday.

[truongdhnh]

I don't know why, but honestly I dream about this just before I woke up and see this price rising.
In my dream it about 0.008 though, so who knows. Maybe that's the target number

[GingerAle]

Seems there are an awful lot of offers there grasping for pennies.  Hardly worth the effort?
I recall earlier posts suggesting 0.1% as a minimum asking rate, and given the particulars, that seems reasonable.  Less than that... To each his own, I guess.  Though I don't see how you could get a reasonable rate when there are plenty of offers at next to nothing.

I tried to raise group consciousness above the 'crabs in a bucket' level, but it seems people prefer a race to the bottom mentality, as they insist on underpricing their assets and thus functionally subsidize loans.   

They won't win anything for placing in that race, because when XMR is down or flat there is no demand for loans at any rate, and when it spikes the cheap, nearly free loans are quickly gobbled up.

The winning/optimal strategy is to offer coins starting around 0.1%, ignore the shitlords grasping for pennies, let them act as cannon fodder during loan demand spikes, and sit back as those stuck defending/maintaining short positions are forced to pay reasonable rates (or cover at a loss).

I think one could assume that those offering < 0.1 % are both not involved in these circles and don't care that much about the vehicle getting them from point A (less money) to point B (more money). But I could be being unduly harsh on the pure speculators at poloniex.

[dEBRUYNE]

I suppose we will be bouncing around between this support and resistance zone until the hardfork.



The support zone is pretty strong since is is (i) previous major resistance (i.e. previous highs (resistance turns into support)) and (ii) tested multiple times on high volume.

[dEBRUYNE]

Fourth dev meeting in approximately 4 hours (17:00 UTC). Dev meeting will be held at #monero-dev on freenode.

https://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/converted.html?iso=20160319T17&p1=0&p2=56&p3=37&p4=102&p5=240&p6=136&p7=179&p8=137&p9=70

If you have an IRC client, just make sure you are on the freenode server and you can subsequently join #monero-dev. If you don't have an IRC client, you can follow the dev meeting using:

http://webchat.freenode.net/

Set the channel to -> #monero-dev and pick a nickname you like. Everyone is welcome to follow the dev meeting!

[vuduchyld]

Some serious kinda pump this last hour or so since I woke up.  Wow.

Wow...and a change of 500 btc in the order book. 

Dose walls, doe!

[griffen1102]

I think I saw a picture of monero nodes being run on Azure. We should probably release that now and fuel this pump.