[XMR] Monero Speculation

[iCEBREAKER]

I'd rather celebrate XMR's victories than cast aspersions on LTC's viability.  We don't need to tear BTC/LTC down to raise XMR up.  It's not zero sum.  The crypto pie is growing so fast that all legit/useful/innovative projects may have a nicely sized slice.

This is where it gets interesting. At some point that pie will stop growing so fast. And by pie I don't necessarily mean market cap (as that at least did a long-pause if not a stop in 2013) but applications, use cases, and district community approaches to it. And at that point we will reach a consolidation phase, and then I think there will be actual coin failures (failures not necessarily in a technical sense, but economically and socially people will just abandon coins that don't make the cut).

Consolidation (ie culling the weak from the herd) started years ago and never stopped.  RIP Tenebrix, IXcoin, Paycoin, and Neucoin.  Congrats to LTC, PPC, NMC, and XPM.  Honorable mention to NVC and participation ribbon to FTH. 

The crypto pie will grow astronomically faster (think early inflationary universe feed by false vacuum energy) to quadrillions of times its present magnitude before it slows down.

The post-exponential-expansion quiescence/stability doesn't occur until after fiat is disrupted, the BIS is razed and turned into a memorial garden for the victims of warfare/welfare statism, and we get bored of partying in the desert around Monero Mountain.

There is so much low hanging fruit, ripe for disruption, as Bitcoin and Monero turn finance into a software problem (and ETH does the same for governance/arbitration/regulation), I don't even try to think of post-Cryptopia specifics that far ahead, because they exist in stable basins of attraction several chaotic quantum leaps beyond the present.  Thus being deterministic, but not computable.

[TrueCryptonaire]

So is it possible to use XMR in a manner that person A promises to pay to person B x amount, and as a proof of funds person A sends coins to the network but in a manner that person B sees it as peding deposit (and person A has pending/reserved withdrawal). Once person B has delivered his duty towards person A, person A redeems the payment?

[smooth]

I'd rather celebrate XMR's victories than cast aspersions on LTC's viability.  We don't need to tear BTC/LTC down to raise XMR up.  It's not zero sum.  The crypto pie is growing so fast that all legit/useful/innovative projects may have a nicely sized slice.

This is where it gets interesting. At some point that pie will stop growing so fast. And by pie I don't necessarily mean market cap (as that at least did a long-pause if not a stop in 2013) but applications, use cases, and district community approaches to it. And at that point we will reach a consolidation phase, and then I think there will be actual coin failures (failures not necessarily in a technical sense, but economically and socially people will just abandon coins that don't make the cut).

Consolidation (ie culling the weak from the herd) started years ago and never stopped.  RIP Tenebrix, IXcoin, Paycoin, and Neucoin. 

All basically stillborn or pan flashers that were never in the top or at least not for much time.

Old leaders fail too. Think Pan Am, Hostess, Sears. Those weren't even tech, where you might consider innovation and disruption. There you have Blackberry, Atari, Wang, AOL, and countless others.

The crypto pie will grow astronomically faster

In that case it won't happen for a while, but it will still happen.

[iCEBREAKER]

I'd rather celebrate XMR's victories than cast aspersions on LTC's viability.  We don't need to tear BTC/LTC down to raise XMR up.  It's not zero sum.  The crypto pie is growing so fast that all legit/useful/innovative projects may have a nicely sized slice.

This is where it gets interesting. At some point that pie will stop growing so fast. And by pie I don't necessarily mean market cap (as that at least did a long-pause if not a stop in 2013) but applications, use cases, and district community approaches to it. And at that point we will reach a consolidation phase, and then I think there will be actual coin failures (failures not necessarily in a technical sense, but economically and socially people will just abandon coins that don't make the cut).

Consolidation (ie culling the weak from the herd) started years ago and never stopped.  RIP Tenebrix, IXcoin, Paycoin, and Neucoin. 

All basically stillborn or pan flashers that were never in the top or at least not for much time.

Old leaders fail too. Think Pan Am, Hostess, Sears. Those weren't even tech, where you might consider innovation and disruption. There you have Blackberry, Atari, Wang, AOL, and countless others.

The crypto pie will grow astronomically faster

In that case it won't happen for a while, but it will still happen.

Yes, the Lindy effect strongly tends to protect incumbent technologies (eg big box store shopping and video games) much more than particular individual firms (eg Sears and Atari), until it doesn't.   

I'm reminded of the tectonic metaphor often used to describe the decay of the Roman Republic into Empire as happening "gradually, then all at once." (Cite needed; sorry I'm a terribly lazy scholar.)

Where do you see crypto as crossing its Rubicon of disruption into the hollowed out Marches of Fiat power vacuum?  (I'm asking in good faith, not trying to set you up for a 'Gotcha! LOOL!' if you're a bit off or even completely wrong.)

If pressed, I'd pick as the least arbitrary line of demarcation the moment when the market cap(s) of BTC+XMR exceeds that of gold+silver.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

If we advocate Bitcoin (read: crypto e-cash) becoming a critical system, how can we not also advocate multiple redundant backup systems?

Your "LTC as a backup" argument has never made sense to me.

LTC would fail as a backup because it offers no security balance, and will suffer the same hypothetical fate as its bigger brother. Think about it: if the bitcoin network were suddenly brought to its knees, how would anyone be safer in LTC?

AEON backing up XMR is equally absurd.

[inca]

I'd rather celebrate XMR's victories than cast aspersions on LTC's viability.  We don't need to tear BTC/LTC down to raise XMR up.  It's not zero sum.  The crypto pie is growing so fast that all legit/useful/innovative projects may have a nicely sized slice.

This is where it gets interesting. At some point that pie will stop growing so fast. And by pie I don't necessarily mean market cap (as that at least did a long-pause if not a stop in 2013) but applications, use cases, and district community approaches to it. And at that point we will reach a consolidation phase, and then I think there will be actual coin failures (failures not necessarily in a technical sense, but economically and socially people will just abandon coins that don't make the cut).

Consolidation (ie culling the weak from the herd) started years ago and never stopped.  RIP Tenebrix, IXcoin, Paycoin, and Neucoin. 

All basically stillborn or pan flashers that were never in the top or at least not for much time.

Old leaders fail too. Think Pan Am, Hostess, Sears. Those weren't even tech, where you might consider innovation and disruption. There you have Blackberry, Atari, Wang, AOL, and countless others.

The crypto pie will grow astronomically faster

In that case it won't happen for a while, but it will still happen.

Yes, the Lindy effect strongly tends to protect incumbent technologies (eg big box store shopping and video games) much more than particular individual firms (eg Sears and Atari), until it doesn't.   

I'm reminded of the tectonic metaphor often used to describe the decay of the Roman Republic into Empire as happening "gradually, then all at once." (Cite needed; sorry I'm a terribly lazy scholar.)

Where do you see crypto as crossing its Rubicon of disruption into the hollowed out Marches of Fiat power vacuum?  (I'm asking in good faith, not trying to set you up for a 'Gotcha! LOOL!' if you're a bit off or even completely wrong.)

If pressed, I'd pick as the least arbitrary line of demarcation the moment when the market cap(s) of BTC+XMR exceeds that of gold+silver.

Hemingway described his bankruptcy as occurring 'gradually and then suddenly' also.

[iCEBREAKER]

If we advocate Bitcoin (read: crypto e-cash) becoming a critical system, how can we not also advocate multiple redundant backup systems?

Your "LTC as a backup" argument has never made sense to me.

LTC would fail as a backup because it offers no security balance, and will suffer the same hypothetical fate as its bigger brother. Think about it: if the bitcoin network were suddenly brought to its knees, how would anyone be safer in LTC?

AEON backing up XMR is equally absurd.

I also mentioned BBR/XCN as possible/logical XMR backups, yet you pointedly failed to mention them.  Any reason for that omission?

Sorry, I can't parse "security balance" or understand why such a thing would overrule the market, which has put the upper bound of LTC value at something over $30 each and consistently awards LTC a market cap in the $100s of millions.

LTC uses a different blockchain and proof-of-work and github (etc) than BTC; why wouldn't it be safer when BTC black-swans?

Were you here that time BTC has an itsy-bitsy little chain fork and LTC instantly absorbed the FUD?  I was, and so were a lot of other people.  We're not going to forget that, no matter how impressively many zeros BTC adds to its uptime.

Then there is the fact many (especially in China) see BTC and LTC as Coke and Pepsi.  They don't need to understand my "LTC as a backup argument" because they don't even see LTC as an altcoin.

Since you can't tell us how Bitcoin is going to fail, please don't presume to also assert that unknown, theoretical failure mode would necessarily be occupied by Litecoin or any (non-merged-mined) altcoin as well.

[Qastessa]

The price is around 0.004 bitcoin now. I suspect the price could rise to 0.006 in the next few months or even weeks.

[elrippo]

The price is around 0.004 bitcoin now. I suspect the price could rise to 0.006 in the next few months or even weeks.

Well, 0,0049 should be possible at the end of the weekend, if i take a look at the buyside of the orderbook on polo 

[meme magic]

The price is around 0.004 bitcoin now. I suspect the price could rise to 0.006 in the next few months or even weeks.

Well, 0,0049 should be possible at the end of the weekend, if i take a look at the buyside of the orderbook on polo 

not bad. 3% of the marketcap visibly chasing 4% of the emission so far.

[Master_dandosha]

The price is around 0.004 bitcoin now. I suspect the price could rise to 0.006 in the next few months or even weeks.

Well, 0,0049 should be possible at the end of the weekend, if i take a look at the buyside of the orderbook on polo 

is it dangerous to buy XMR now i miss the 25 price
and is there any possibility for the prices to reach 50 in the coming weeks
thanks

[elrippo]

The price is around 0.004 bitcoin now. I suspect the price could rise to 0.006 in the next few months or even weeks.

Well, 0,0049 should be possible at the end of the weekend, if i take a look at the buyside of the orderbook on polo 

is it dangerous to buy XMR now i miss the 25 price
and is there any possibility for the prices to reach 50 in the coming weeks
thanks

Take a look at the orderbooks and think it out 
(I would buy but that's none of my business  )

[explorer]

The price is around 0.004 bitcoin now. I suspect the price could rise to 0.006 in the next few months or even weeks.

Well, 0,0049 should be possible at the end of the weekend, if i take a look at the buyside of the orderbook on polo 

is it dangerous to buy XMR now i miss the 25 price
and is there any possibility for the prices to reach 50 in the coming weeks
thanks

Exact timing is difficult, but I would bet that now is better than 2 weeks from now.  A little every day will average nicely.  Use your way-back-machine and start Dec 31 2015   

[Its About Sharing]

The price is around 0.004 bitcoin now. I suspect the price could rise to 0.006 in the next few months or even weeks.

That is certainly possible and I think the .01 level is reachable as well, especially once the GUI is out.

That said, I think the days of pricing alts and Cryptos in BTC is going to come to an end. We should start looking at things in terms of USD or local currencies
and for many reasons.

BTC is in an explosive triangle right now, near the end of it. If it breaks up, perhaps the alts follow.
I think Monero has a valuation this year of between $3 and $5, perhaps more, but there are so many factors involved.

[elrippo]

The price is around 0.004 bitcoin now. I suspect the price could rise to 0.006 in the next few months or even weeks.

Well, 0,0049 should be possible at the end of the weekend, if i take a look at the buyside of the orderbook on polo 

is it dangerous to buy XMR now i miss the 25 price
and is there any possibility for the prices to reach 50 in the coming weeks
thanks

Exact timing is difficult, but I would bet that now is better than 2 weeks from now.  A little every day will average nicely.  Use your way-back-machine and start Dec 31 2015   

Good thank i bought in more in mid January  

[elrippo]

The price is around 0.004 bitcoin now. I suspect the price could rise to 0.006 in the next few months or even weeks.

That is certainly possible and I think the .01 level is reachable as well, especially once the GUI is out.

That said, I think the days of pricing alts and Cryptos in BTC is going to come to an end. We should start looking at things in terms of USD or local currencies
and for many reasons.

BTC is in an explosive triangle right now, near the end of it. If it breaks up, perhaps the alts follow.
I think Monero has a valuation this year of between $3 and $5, perhaps more, but there are so many factors involved.

.... unfortunately i can not agree with this argument....
Take a look at the BTC industry with for example miners built by some cooperations, investing certain ammounts to prosper from the system (<- the believe). Take a look at exchanges rating BTC as their anchor currency. Nearly every market, wether dark or not, is based on BTC.
We can discuss about BTC or BTCclassic, but BTC as a business will not die.
I believe altcoins like Monero will catch up their position and will compete, maybe overtake BTC by 2020, but BTC has a very strong stake and argument in the community and society.
And honestly, trading is based on the believe of worth for virtualities which by them selfs have absolutely no worth. So this implicates, if people believe in the worth of something, than this something will gain worth and vice versa.

If you want to destroy the worth of a virtual something, than you have to destroy the believe in it (like massmedia does the whole time on BTC)

[Its About Sharing]

The price is around 0.004 bitcoin now. I suspect the price could rise to 0.006 in the next few months or even weeks.

That is certainly possible and I think the .01 level is reachable as well, especially once the GUI is out.

That said, I think the days of pricing alts and Cryptos in BTC is going to come to an end. We should start looking at things in terms of USD or local currencies
and for many reasons.

BTC is in an explosive triangle right now, near the end of it. If it breaks up, perhaps the alts follow.
I think Monero has a valuation this year of between $3 and $5, perhaps more, but there are so many factors involved.

.... unfortunately i can not agree with this argument....
Take a look at the BTC industry with for example miners built by some cooperations, investing certain ammounts to prosper from the system (<- the believe). Take a look at exchanges rating BTC as their anchor currency. Nearly every market, wether dark or not, is based on BTC.
We can discuss about BTC or BTCclassic, but BTC as a business will not die.
I believe altcoins like Monero will catch up their position and will compete, maybe overtake BTC by 2020, but BTC has a very strong stake and argument in the community and society.
And honestly, trading is based on the believe of worth for virtualities which by them selfs have absolutely no worth. So this implicates, if people believe in the worth of something, than this something will gain worth and vice versa.

If you want to destroy the worth of a virtual something, than you have to destroy the believe in it (like massmedia does the whole time on BTC)

Quite simply, if BTC does explode up, I just don't see the alts following (unless their is utility or feverish speculation, which is possible once the public catch on.)
If BTC suddenly goes to 1200 USD, does that mean XMR, ETH, etc. all go up app 3X in value as well?

Time will tell.

[binaryFate]

About 2 years ago I didn't know much, but I was interested in Monero so I forced myself to learn how to use the command line wallet. It was fun to learn how things worked on a deeper level so I started learning how to code when I had the time.

Fast-forward to now and I will be starting a new job as a developer next Monday. I still have a lot to learn, but now someone will actually be paying me to write code for them. HAHA! Thanks Monero!

I post this to say that anyone can learn how to do this if you have the interest and make time for it.

Congrats! Nice personal achievement

[explorer]

The price is around 0.004 bitcoin now. I suspect the price could rise to 0.006 in the next few months or even weeks.

That is certainly possible and I think the .01 level is reachable as well, especially once the GUI is out.

That said, I think the days of pricing alts and Cryptos in BTC is going to come to an end. We should start looking at things in terms of USD or local currencies
and for many reasons.

BTC is in an explosive triangle right now, near the end of it. If it breaks up, perhaps the alts follow.
I think Monero has a valuation this year of between $3 and $5, perhaps more, but there are so many factors involved.

.... unfortunately i can not agree with this argument....
Take a look at the BTC industry with for example miners built by some cooperations, investing certain ammounts to prosper from the system (<- the believe). Take a look at exchanges rating BTC as their anchor currency. Nearly every market, wether dark or not, is based on BTC.
We can discuss about BTC or BTCclassic, but BTC as a business will not die.
I believe altcoins like Monero will catch up their position and will compete, maybe overtake BTC by 2020, but BTC has a very strong stake and argument in the community and society.
And honestly, trading is based on the believe of worth for virtualities which by them selfs have absolutely no worth. So this implicates, if people believe in the worth of something, than this something will gain worth and vice versa.

If you want to destroy the worth of a virtual something, than you have to destroy the believe in it (like massmedia does the whole time on BTC)

Quite simply, if BTC does explode up, I just don't see the alts following (unless their is utility or feverish speculation, which is possible once the public catch on.)
If BTC suddenly goes to 1200 USD, does that mean XMR, ETH, etc. all go up app 3X in value as well?

Time will tell.

The only real comparison I can think of is this:

http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/pair/ltc/btc/btc-e/alltime

Recall November 2013 LTC  reaction.  I think it is a case of a rising tide, and all that.  Correlation may not be fixed, but in general, I expect all to rise, perhaps with some distortion in time or degree.

[elrippo]

The price is around 0.004 bitcoin now. I suspect the price could rise to 0.006 in the next few months or even weeks.

That is certainly possible and I think the .01 level is reachable as well, especially once the GUI is out.

That said, I think the days of pricing alts and Cryptos in BTC is going to come to an end. We should start looking at things in terms of USD or local currencies
and for many reasons.

BTC is in an explosive triangle right now, near the end of it. If it breaks up, perhaps the alts follow.
I think Monero has a valuation this year of between $3 and $5, perhaps more, but there are so many factors involved.

.... unfortunately i can not agree with this argument....
Take a look at the BTC industry with for example miners built by some cooperations, investing certain ammounts to prosper from the system (<- the believe). Take a look at exchanges rating BTC as their anchor currency. Nearly every market, wether dark or not, is based on BTC.
We can discuss about BTC or BTCclassic, but BTC as a business will not die.
I believe altcoins like Monero will catch up their position and will compete, maybe overtake BTC by 2020, but BTC has a very strong stake and argument in the community and society.
And honestly, trading is based on the believe of worth for virtualities which by them selfs have absolutely no worth. So this implicates, if people believe in the worth of something, than this something will gain worth and vice versa.

If you want to destroy the worth of a virtual something, than you have to destroy the believe in it (like massmedia does the whole time on BTC)

Quite simply, if BTC does explode up, I just don't see the alts following (unless their is utility or feverish speculation, which is possible once the public catch on.)
If BTC suddenly goes to 1200 USD, does that mean XMR, ETH, etc. all go up app 3X in value as well?

Time will tell.

Well again, i would not generalize this. Some altcoins will surely get in serious trouble, because they have the same technology and are bound very strong to BTC
I studied a job driven by handcraftship, so if for example my bicycle breaks up i am able to fix it. People who have not the ability to fix nonvirtual technical instruments will get in trouble.
I believe diversiffcation is a prosper way to care about a system, like controlsystems of airplanes are reduntant, and this gives Monero in particiular a huge change, because the tech behind it is nearly completely different to BTC and their derivates.
The stronger the bound is, the more it will behave like BTC (litecoin for example) and vice versa.

I believe that MOnerO Not will be affected by BTC as strong as other alts will be