[XMR] Monero Speculation

[TrueCryptonaire]

The way I am able to do it is to lend higher rate but max term (60 days). And then feed the beast slowly slowly. It is surprising how many borrower will keep the short position open the max period despite the fact that the price goes agains him.

Coming from someone who loves margin gambling, I can tell you the mind of a margin gambler: they don't give a shit about rates.  If I am going margin long, I expect to make >5% profit within 2 or 3 days and therefore don't mind paying exorbitant rates.  I'm not saying that is a right state of mind - I am just telling you the average borrower's mindset.  In fact, many who use margin short and long don't even check the rates before they borrow and since Poloniex defaults to 2% max, travesties of lending are quite possible. 
 
Any idea why lending got so lucrative a few days ago and what conditions might make it so lucrative again?

You are right when saying the borrowers do not seem to care about the rates, and that's good as long as there are also market makers who make sure there are always coins for sale if they get margin called, therefore I am very glad we have Aminorex. I wish there will be more people like him. 
They make sure there will not be too much defaults.

The lending is lucrative in days of green dildos. The bears think the price will drop and they are taking risk on that view by shorting the coin and thus pushing the interest rates up. I highly recommend longer terms if you want to avoid bidding the rates down. Some percentage of borrowers seem to hold their positions open the max period (the longest open position I have currently is originating from January 27th so it will become due like tomorrow).

[iCEBREAKER]

I'm not commenting on the merits of any coin, just stating whether or not I think they'd make a suitable backup.

A suitable backup would be a cryptocurrency that shares none of Bitcoin's code, uses a different PoW, and doesn't depend on Secp256k1. Are there any non-scam, transparent-chain coins with those characteristics? I honestly don't know/never checked.

Were you here that time BTC has an itsy-bitsy little chain fork and LTC instantly absorbed the FUD?  I was, and so were a lot of other people.  We're not going to forget that, no matter how impressively many zeros BTC adds to its uptime.

Then there is the fact many (especially in China) see BTC and LTC as Coke and Pepsi.  They don't need to understand my "LTC as a backup argument" because they don't even see LTC as an altcoin.

Obviously the market sees value in LTC. I'm not disagreeing with you on that. I only disagree that LTC would make a suitable backup to Bitcoin.

Since you can't tell us how Bitcoin is going to fail, please don't presume to also assert that unknown, theoretical failure mode would necessarily be occupied by Litecoin or any (non-merged-mined) altcoin as well.

Of course I can't predict how Bitcoin might fail, which is why I wouldn't choose a coin that's 95% identical to serve as a backup. And yes, considering how similar they are, I will presume that any theoretical failure in Bitcoin will also affect LTC.

Your presumption is empirically denied.  I even mentioned it and you quoted it, but then glossed right over it in the rush to confirm and reiterate your bias.  I'll try bolding it; maybe that will help.

For many coins, suitability for backup is their most important merit.  You can't commend on them separately.

Litecoin has on occasion already provided stability (ie acted as a suitable backup) when Bitcoin threatened/suffered catastrophic consensus failure, and the markets responded accordingly.  But we've never seen them both experience simultaneous downtime.  That scenario only exists in your personal Imaginationland.

Regardless of all that, your quest for a suitable Bitcoin backup is now ended.  Monero shares none of Bitcoin's code, uses a different PoW, and doesn't depend on Secp256k1.   

[americanpegasus]

You are right when saying the borrowers do not seem to care about the rates, and that's good as long as there are also market makers who make sure there are always coins for sale if they get margin called, therefore I am very glad we have Aminorex. I wish there will be more people like him. 
They make sure there will not be too much defaults.

The lending is lucrative in days of green dildos. The bears think the price will drop and they are taking risk on that view by shorting the coin and thus pushing the interest rates up. I highly recommend longer terms if you want to avoid bidding the rates down. Some percentage of borrowers seem to hold their positions open the max period (the longest open position I have currently is originating from January 27th so it will become due like tomorrow).

Thanks for your wise words.  It also occurs to me that people trying to make money by lending could also protect their lending investment and potentially scalp a little extra profit by padding the books slightly with some liquidity. 
 
Crypto has been more than just fun and profitable for me - it has truly been a master's class in finance and markets.  Very few people get the kind of education that is being provided here free of charge, because most people can never get anywhere near this level of the action without already having millions of dollars.

[TrueCryptonaire]

You are right when saying the borrowers do not seem to care about the rates, and that's good as long as there are also market makers who make sure there are always coins for sale if they get margin called, therefore I am very glad we have Aminorex. I wish there will be more people like him. 
They make sure there will not be too much defaults.

The lending is lucrative in days of green dildos. The bears think the price will drop and they are taking risk on that view by shorting the coin and thus pushing the interest rates up. I highly recommend longer terms if you want to avoid bidding the rates down. Some percentage of borrowers seem to hold their positions open the max period (the longest open position I have currently is originating from January 27th so it will become due like tomorrow).

Thanks for your wise words.  It also occurs to me that people trying to make money by lending could also protect their lending investment and potentially scalp a little extra profit by padding the books slightly with some liquidity. 
 
Crypto has been more than just fun and profitable for me - it has truly been a master's class in finance and markets.  Very few people get the kind of education that is being provided here free of charge, because most people can never get anywhere near this level of the action without already having millions of dollars.

For me the altcoins were a terrible loss but I learned my lesson: Only invest in projects that have sufficient funding and has some sort of chance to succeed.
Yes, the liquidity is needed indeed when there will be the repayment time, at least for the part of accured interests. Most of my loans are 60 days so there already have a nice chunk of Moneros coming as interests and they need to be purchased from marketmakers.
At this point I am too small to risk my Moneros in market making... When Monero is 100+ usd coin I might start a small market making "business" by giving quotes of bids spot - 5 % and asks at spot + 5 %. And perhaps only for like 10 000- 20 000 usd per side, so there is room for other makers as well.
I am also hoping to start seeing some investment vehicles that rakes money out of the realm of fiat currency.
For instance, if people buy a stock (let's say, Realty Income which is pretty stable by paying monthly dividends since 1960's and channel all the dividends into Monero, over long period it will create a massive Monero hoard and if it is simply hoarded it will force the price to steady rise especially in days when the coin is well distributed). This type of activity has similar type of effect on Monero economy as exports have in the conventional economy: it appreciates the currency.

[dEBRUYNE]

Mixin = 0 transactions down to 0.73 over the last 24 hours:

http://moneroblocks.info/stats

Bear in mind that mixin = 0 transactions are allowed as long as they contain one dust input.

[Dotto]

If there are weak hands saying Monero cannot run anymore, it is always possible to borrow Moneros (obviosuly you have sold your coins already and need to borrow now), I am happy to feed your short positions.
The rates are now so low that not many will bother to lend but I can give a few coins for rent.
That been said, over 50 % of my coins are lent at 0.20 % or higher (even the loan with 0.900 % is still collecting interest).

I've gotten to the point where I am too big of a player to play the margin game anymore (at least without not disrupting the markets somewhat), so I am starting to look into other forms of making my money work for me, specifically the other side of the coin: lending.  I say again, I really wish Poloniex allowed people to long other coins with borrowed XMR, but we seem to be getting a steady 0.1%-ish even with the only purpose of Monero lending being to short itself.  
  
Do you have any advice for a new wannabe lender who wants to stay competitive, but also not get into a bidding war with other lenders?  What should I look for in offering an average loan?  Are 0.1% 2-day loans the norm?  Should I try to swing those low interest loans into higher rate ones once the initial term is up?  Sorry, all this is a bit new to me, but I am learning quickly.

Im way small fish and less expert than you, so I don´t have a sound strategie to offer you but... don´t you worry about your moneros not been returned back?. Since I learned that the leans are not 100% guarateed I just reduced this risk to the max... I offer some BTC at extortion rates from time to time, but I sleep better when they are under my control (well... Polo control)

[inca]

If there are weak hands saying Monero cannot run anymore, it is always possible to borrow Moneros (obviosuly you have sold your coins already and need to borrow now), I am happy to feed your short positions.
The rates are now so low that not many will bother to lend but I can give a few coins for rent.
That been said, over 50 % of my coins are lent at 0.20 % or higher (even the loan with 0.900 % is still collecting interest).

I've gotten to the point where I am too big of a player to play the margin game anymore (at least without not disrupting the markets somewhat), so I am starting to look into other forms of making my money work for me, specifically the other side of the coin: lending.  I say again, I really wish Poloniex allowed people to long other coins with borrowed XMR, but we seem to be getting a steady 0.1%-ish even with the only purpose of Monero lending being to short itself.  
  
Do you have any advice for a new wannabe lender who wants to stay competitive, but also not get into a bidding war with other lenders?  What should I look for in offering an average loan?  Are 0.1% 2-day loans the norm?  Should I try to swing those low interest loans into higher rate ones once the initial term is up?  Sorry, all this is a bit new to me, but I am learning quickly.

Im way small fish and less expert than you, so I don´t have a sound strategie to offer you but... don´t you worry about your moneros not been returned back?. Since I learned that the leans are not 100% guarateed I just reduced this risk to the max... I offer some BTC at exhorbitant rates from time to time, but I sleep better when they are under my control (well... Polo control)

It is a risk that short positions lent out will not be returned. But once an exchange allows this to happen it loses it's reputation and customers.

Let's see how monero does in the next few months as the bitcoin halving approaches. The fairytale ending to this year would be a halving pump to 750-1200 with a 10x rise in monero. I am fairly sure this will not happen .

[Dotto]

By the way, if you hadn´t seen "The big short" film you may see ASAP. Hint: Bullish as fuck

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596363/

[explorer]

If there are weak hands saying Monero cannot run anymore, it is always possible to borrow Moneros (obviosuly you have sold your coins already and need to borrow now), I am happy to feed your short positions.
The rates are now so low that not many will bother to lend but I can give a few coins for rent.
That been said, over 50 % of my coins are lent at 0.20 % or higher (even the loan with 0.900 % is still collecting interest).

I've gotten to the point where I am too big of a player to play the margin game anymore (at least without not disrupting the markets somewhat), so I am starting to look into other forms of making my money work for me, specifically the other side of the coin: lending.  I say again, I really wish Poloniex allowed people to long other coins with borrowed XMR, but we seem to be getting a steady 0.1%-ish even with the only purpose of Monero lending being to short itself.  
  
Do you have any advice for a new wannabe lender who wants to stay competitive, but also not get into a bidding war with other lenders?  What should I look for in offering an average loan?  Are 0.1% 2-day loans the norm?  Should I try to swing those low interest loans into higher rate ones once the initial term is up?  Sorry, all this is a bit new to me, but I am learning quickly.

Im way small fish and less expert than you, so I don´t have a sound strategie to offer you but... don´t you worry about your moneros not been returned back?. Since I learned that the leans are not 100% guarateed I just reduced this risk to the max... I offer some BTC at exhorbitant rates from time to time, but I sleep better when they are under my control (well... Polo control)

It is a risk that short positions lent out will not be returned. But once an exchange allows this to happen it loses it's reputation and customers.

Let's see how monero does in the next few months as the bitcoin halving approaches. The fairytale ending to this year would be a halving pump to 750-1200 with a 10x rise in monero. I am fairly sure this will not happen .

3x XBT compounded with 10X XMR from here would likely induce me to redistribute a small percentage of my moneroj, and increase market making activity.  I think if XBT were to ATH it would overshoot substantially though.  If it really starts to move, 6-10X wouldn't surprise me.  XMR is a wild card.  Certainly there is room for that kind of growth.  Look at the valuations of shitcoins.  The market will bear an impressive amount once FOMO kicks in.  Better to maintain a controlled pace though, rather than shoot over the moon only to crash back to earth, wrecking little people late to the party.  Higher XMR valuation should mean accelerated development (donations are worth more)  for a nice effect.  Waiting and seeing 

[americanpegasus]

By the way, if you hadn´t seen "The big short" film you may see ASAP. Hint: Bullish as fuck

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596363/

This was the movie that really got my wife to understand the value proposition of Monero, in a roundabout way.  She put some of her money in because I was so excited about it, and she kind of understood it.  Near the end though she had an epiphany when everyone who had previously laughed at the credit default swaps were now desperately trying to hedge with them.  I told her, "See?  You own like 1/5,000th of what will eventually become the premier private financial network on Earth.  No one thinks much of it now because they are sheep - but there will come a day when people are banging on the door and begging to get in at ANY price."

Mixin = 0 transactions down to 0.73 over the last 24 hours:

http://moneroblocks.info/stats

Bear in mind that mixin = 0 transactions are allowed as long as they contain one dust input.

Wait, what?  Please explain further.  I thought we had disbarred all these from the network.  Why are they allowed with a dust input?

[saddambitcoin]

From my understanding, it is to allow people with lots of dust amounts to "sweep_dust" (sweep_dust is transfer 0 to your own wallet) without incurring *huge* fees that would come with a larger mixin.

edit: by huge fees i mean fees that exceed the sum of the dust amount being sent

[aminorex]

Higher low, higher high criterion has been met.  Bullish.  Level-up to 420 activating.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Higher low, higher high criterion has been met.  Bullish.  Level-up to 420 activating.

Ouch. 

[magico]

From my understanding, it is to allow people with lots of dust amounts to "sweep_dust" (sweep_dust is transfer 0 to your own wallet) without incurring *huge* fees that would come with a larger mixin.

edit: by huge fees i mean fees that exceed the sum of the dust amount being sent

In my case 0.9.3 offers me sweeping of 0.2737* dust for a total fee of 0.2

[papa_lazzarou]

Mixin = 0 transactions down to 0.73 over the last 24 hours:

http://moneroblocks.info/stats

Bear in mind that mixin = 0 transactions are allowed as long as they contain one dust input.

That data was for the last 48H because I was considering 1440 blocks as a DAY.

The stats are now updated and using timestamp instead.
This is not perfect either but it should be close enough.

http://moneroblocks.info/stats

[americanpegasus]

I went car shopping yesterday, and ended up pitching Monero to a couple of car salesmen.    
  
"Look, I could buy this car cash.  But I won't.  If you can't or won't give me a good interest rate, I'll just walk and come back and see the 2017 models later this year.  My investments will be worth more by then anyway."  
  
"Yes, but investments go both ways.  Don't you want to spread out your money some?  How much of a down payment can you swing?"  
  
"Not this one.  Do you know what it's done in four months?  Quadrupled.  I would rather hold any down payment in the asset, and come back later this year when it's a whole car."  
  
"What do you mean quadrupled?  What does that?"  
  
"Well, it's kind of secret at the moment.  I'll tell you this though: The last time I made a downpayment on a car was 2010 when this thing called Bitcoin was like 25 cents each..."  
  
Then I usually offer to write down a bunch of words on a post-it note and let them Google them on their own.  "bitcoin (2008), cryptocurrency, blockchain, monero (2014), cryptonote, coinbase, poloniex" and tell them if they want to know more they can always call me.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I went car shopping yesterday, and ended up pitching Monero to a couple of car salesmen.    
  
"Look, I could buy this car cash.  But I won't.  If you can't or won't give me a good interest rate, I'll just walk and come back and see the 2017 models later this year.  My investments will be worth more by then anyway."  
  
"Yes, but investments go both ways.  Don't you want to spread out your money some?  How much of a down payment can you swing?"  
  
"Not this one.  Do you know what it's done in four months?  Quadrupled.  I would rather hold any down payment in the asset, and come back later this year when it's a whole car."  
  
"What do you mean quadrupled?  What does that?"  
  
"Well, it's kind of secret at the moment.  I'll tell you this though: The last time I made a downpayment on a car was 2010 when this thing called Bitcoin was like 25 cents each..."  
  
Then I usually offer to write down a bunch of words on a post-it note and let them Google them on their own.  "bitcoin (2008), cryptocurrency, blockchain, monero (2014), cryptonote, coinbase, poloniex" and tell them if they want to know more they can always call me.

That's the way to go man.
And you will end get paid when you offer them OTC deal with zero slippage but let's say, 20 % premium and then refill it slowly from the dumps.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Of course I can't predict how Bitcoin might fail, which is why I wouldn't choose a coin that's 95% identical to serve as a backup. And yes, considering how similar they are, I will presume that any theoretical failure in Bitcoin will also affect LTC.

Your presumption is empirically denied.  I even mentioned it and you quoted it, but then glossed right over it in the rush to confirm and reiterate your bias.  I'll try bolding it; maybe that will help.

I saw your comment. A chain fork (and resulting market behavior) is not evidence that LTC will withstand a technological failure that Bitcoin cannot.

For many coins, suitability for backup is their most important merit.  You can't commend on them separately.

Litecoin has on occasion already provided stability (ie acted as a suitable backup) when Bitcoin threatened/suffered catastrophic consensus failure, and the markets responded accordingly.  But we've never seen them both experience simultaneous downtime.  That scenario only exists in your personal Imaginationland.

And hopefully it will stay in my imaginationland   but I'm not going to assume it can't happen.

Regardless of all that, your quest for a suitable Bitcoin backup is now ended.  Monero shares none of Bitcoin's code, uses a different PoW, and doesn't depend on Secp256k1.  

Agreed! Except XMR doesn't have a transparent ledger, so it wouldn't be a perfect drop-in replacement for Bitcoin in my hypothetical black swan scenario. I like smooths idea of an XMR clone with ring sigs stripped out.

[r0ach]

I went car shopping yesterday, and ended up pitching Monero to a couple of car salesmen.    

I can't say I am surprised.

[dEBRUYNE]

My investments will be worth more by then.

I'd advise to stay rational here, there is a large probability that they will be worth less. Both XMR and BTC have an extremely large drawdown.