[XMR] Monero Speculation

[wpalczynski]

Double top at ~ 004129, looks like 0043 will be a little bit of a fight.

[vuduchyld]

Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?

I had some out there at 0.105% that I took off of auto-renew.  Now there are more than 150,000 XMR offered with most of it under 0.1%.  

Not sure exactly what it means.  It might mean that nobody is borrowing to short, or that short positions are being closed.  That could take some of the springiness out of the run up.  I think it's NOT a great sign that there is an abundance of supply on the lending side.  

I suppose it could also mean that there is a ton of expectation for a move up.  Even that seems contra-style bearish to me.

Is there any bright side to an oversupply of lenders?

[americanpegasus]

Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?

I wish the collective free market would decide that a 0.1% rate is the absolute floor for Monero lending.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?

I had some out there at 0.105% that I took off of auto-renew.  Now there are more than 150,000 XMR offered with most of it under 0.1%.  

Not sure exactly what it means.  It might mean that nobody is borrowing to short, or that short positions are being closed.  That could take some of the springiness out of the run up.  I think it's NOT a great sign that there is an abundance of supply on the lending side.  

I suppose it could also mean that there is a ton of expectation for a move up.  Even that seems contra-style bearish to me.

Is there any bright side to an oversupply of lenders?

Well, the bids are quite high, around 1200 btc. Assuming they are all legitimate bids the dump basically need to be done by a whale (and not a pocket whale but a real Humpback whale https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFa3x13d5Co ).

I do not know about others but I have been succesfully lent all my Moneros. The rates have been dropping due to under cutting each other.
Sure during the consolidation the loans tend to be repaid at least partially and when the price starts to rise, the loans will be taken.... To supply of Moneros at low rates is a sign that there has not been a green candle for a while and some shorts are being closed.
Just a quick reminder, the short at 0.900 % is still open and collecting some serious coins now.

[vuduchyld]

Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?

I wish the collective free market would decide that a 0.1% rate is the absolute floor for Monero lending.

Well, I'll say this...what I thought was meant by 0.1% turned out to be far more XMR to my benefit than I was expecting.  If it is 0.1% per day of 1000 XMR, I would have thought that a 2 day loan would have netted me 17 XMR after fees.  I was pretty surprised to be so wrong.

But c'mon, AP, help me figure out what it means!  Why so many willing lenders with no takers?  I think either we rocket up due to no sell side liquidity...or maybe we've reached some kind of consolidation period?

[saddambitcoin]

In retrospect, whenever I start telling other people about how well I'm doing on X cryptocurrency, that's historically been the best time to sell all and walk away for awhile.

But I really haven't had the urge to do that yet, so I'm not selling anything. 

[explorer]

Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?

I wish the collective free market would decide that a 0.1% rate is the absolute floor for Monero lending.

Well, I'll say this...what I thought was meant by 0.1% turned out to be far more XMR to my benefit than I was expecting.  If it is 0.1% per day of 1000 XMR, I would have thought that a 2 day loan would have netted me 17 XMR after fees.  I was pretty surprised to be so wrong.

But c'mon, AP, help me figure out what it means!  Why so many willing lenders with no takers?  I think either we rocket up due to no sell side liquidity...or maybe we've reached some kind of consolidation period?

0.1% x 2 days x 1000 XMR less 15% fee would be more like 1.7 XMR.   nothing to get too excited about today.

[vuduchyld]

Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?

I wish the collective free market would decide that a 0.1% rate is the absolute floor for Monero lending.

Well, I'll say this...what I thought was meant by 0.1% turned out to be far more XMR to my benefit than I was expecting.  If it is 0.1% per day of 1000 XMR, I would have thought that a 2 day loan would have netted me 17 XMR after fees.  I was pretty surprised to be so wrong.

But c'mon, AP, help me figure out what it means!  Why so many willing lenders with no takers?  I think either we rocket up due to no sell side liquidity...or maybe we've reached some kind of consolidation period?

0.1% x 2 days x 1000 XMR less 15% fee would be more like 1.7 XMR.   nothing to get too excited about today.

Right, I skipped a zero there, but that's what I was expecting, yet I had something like 80 more XMR than what I thought I had on Polo.  Not sure what's up.  Maybe I had an open order for a buy that I'd forgotten about, but that would be really rare. 

I dunno.  I'm tired today.  Brain not working well, and I've been deeply immersed in some spreadsheets for a consulting project I'm doing. 

[explorer]

Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?

I wish the collective free market would decide that a 0.1% rate is the absolute floor for Monero lending.

Well, I'll say this...what I thought was meant by 0.1% turned out to be far more XMR to my benefit than I was expecting.  If it is 0.1% per day of 1000 XMR, I would have thought that a 2 day loan would have netted me 17 XMR after fees.  I was pretty surprised to be so wrong.

But c'mon, AP, help me figure out what it means!  Why so many willing lenders with no takers?  I think either we rocket up due to no sell side liquidity...or maybe we've reached some kind of consolidation period?

0.1% x 2 days x 1000 XMR less 15% fee would be more like 1.7 XMR.   nothing to get too excited about today.

Right, I skipped a zero there, but that's what I was expecting, yet I had something like 80 more XMR than what I thought I had on Polo.  Not sure what's up.  Maybe I had an open order for a buy that I'd forgotten about, but that would be really rare. 

I dunno.  I'm tired today.  Brain not working well, and I've been deeply immersed in some spreadsheets for a consulting project I'm doing. 

80 more is so much better than 80 fewer.  Just take it and smile

[smoothie]

If there are weak hands saying Monero cannot run anymore, it is always possible to borrow Moneros (obviosuly you have sold your coins already and need to borrow now), I am happy to feed your short positions.
The rates are now so low that not many will bother to lend but I can give a few coins for rent.
That been said, over 50 % of my coins are lent at 0.20 % or higher (even the loan with 0.900 % is still collecting interest).

I've gotten to the point where I am too big of a player to play the margin game anymore (at least without not disrupting the markets somewhat), so I am starting to look into other forms of making my money work for me, specifically the other side of the coin: lending.  I say again, I really wish Poloniex allowed people to long other coins with borrowed XMR, but we seem to be getting a steady 0.1%-ish even with the only purpose of Monero lending being to short itself.  
  
Do you have any advice for a new wannabe lender who wants to stay competitive, but also not get into a bidding war with other lenders?  What should I look for in offering an average loan?  Are 0.1% 2-day loans the norm?  Should I try to swing those low interest loans into higher rate ones once the initial term is up?  Sorry, all this is a bit new to me, but I am learning quickly.

Perhaps you should seek professional advice from a financial advisor.

[smoothie]

Any idea why lending got so lucrative a few days ago and what conditions might make it so lucrative again?

Greed.

[smoothie]

If there are weak hands saying Monero cannot run anymore, it is always possible to borrow Moneros (obviosuly you have sold your coins already and need to borrow now), I am happy to feed your short positions.
The rates are now so low that not many will bother to lend but I can give a few coins for rent.
That been said, over 50 % of my coins are lent at 0.20 % or higher (even the loan with 0.900 % is still collecting interest).

I've gotten to the point where I am too big of a player to play the margin game anymore (at least without not disrupting the markets somewhat), so I am starting to look into other forms of making my money work for me, specifically the other side of the coin: lending.  I say again, I really wish Poloniex allowed people to long other coins with borrowed XMR, but we seem to be getting a steady 0.1%-ish even with the only purpose of Monero lending being to short itself.  
  
Do you have any advice for a new wannabe lender who wants to stay competitive, but also not get into a bidding war with other lenders?  What should I look for in offering an average loan?  Are 0.1% 2-day loans the norm?  Should I try to swing those low interest loans into higher rate ones once the initial term is up?  Sorry, all this is a bit new to me, but I am learning quickly.

Im way small fish and less expert than you, so I don´t have a sound strategie to offer you but... don´t you worry about your moneros not been returned back?. Since I learned that the leans are not 100% guarateed I just reduced this risk to the max... I offer some BTC at extortion rates from time to time, but I sleep better when they are under my control (well... Polo control)

The only issue I have with the whole lending scenario is COUNTER-PARTY-RISK. I guess if you don't believe Polo will ever get hacked or close down. Then you're good.

The other side of the coin is usually what I pay attention to when looking at any exchange or "other party".

[ArticMine]

...

The only issue I have with the whole lending scenario is COUNTER-PARTY-RISK. I guess if you don't believe Polo will ever get hacked or close down. Then you're good.

The other side of the coin is usually what I pay attention to when looking at any exchange or "other party".

There is also the risk that the short seller's equity does not cover the closed position is a fast rising market. Take a look at DASH/XMR currently the most liquid of the XMR markets to see what I mean. https://poloniex.com/exchange#xmr_dash

Edit: A Monero short that uses Dash as collateral could get really scary very fast. By the way the reverse, a Dash short that uses Monero as collateral, can also get really scary very fast.

[smoothie]

...

The only issue I have with the whole lending scenario is COUNTER-PARTY-RISK. I guess if you don't believe Polo will ever get hacked or close down. Then you're good.

The other side of the coin is usually what I pay attention to when looking at any exchange or "other party".

There is also the risk that the short seller's equity does not cover the closed position is a fast rising market. Take a look at DASH/XMR currently the most liquid of the XMR markets to see what I mean. https://poloniex.com/exchange#xmr_dash

Yeah. Good point. It still falls under the counter-party-risk category.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Yes I got the point - time to readjust the lending rates I guess.

[americanpegasus]

In retrospect, whenever I start telling other people about how well I'm doing on X cryptocurrency, that's historically been the best time to sell all and walk away for awhile.

But I really haven't had the urge to do that yet, so I'm not selling anything. 

The beauty of Monero is if it goes back down, I get to acquire more cheaply.  The fundamentals are still strong and the next 24 months are critical.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I tried to ponder all the reasons why I should sell Monero now. Heck, I did not find even one legitimate reason. Even the mere argument "we are now at the peak of 2015" feels pretty weak as the fundamentals are completely different from one year ago. Also the liquidity is on completely other level not to mention the trading volumes.
I could be wrong but I have a feeling Monero will rise quite high.... Anyway I am not even thinking to sell my Moneros because of a simple reason: I have no other use for that money.

[nioc]

My investments will be worth more by then.

I'd advise to stay rational here, there is a large probability that they will be worth less. Both XMR and BTC have an extremely large drawdown.

But we are already quite low compared to where we will be 

[explorer]

My investments will be worth more by then.

I'd advise to stay rational here, there is a large probability that they will be worth less. Both XMR and BTC have an extremely large drawdown.

But we are already quite low compared to where we will be 

Demand is high, and supply has left the building.

[Dotto]

Is it just my imagination or has the lending market on Polo gone a little bit crazy?

I had some out there at 0.105% that I took off of auto-renew.  Now there are more than 150,000 XMR offered with most of it under 0.1%.  

Not sure exactly what it means.  It might mean that nobody is borrowing to short, or that short positions are being closed.  That could take some of the springiness out of the run up.  I think it's NOT a great sign that there is an abundance of supply on the lending side.  

I suppose it could also mean that there is a ton of expectation for a move up.  Even that seems contra-style bearish to me.

Is there any bright side to an oversupply of lenders?

Who knows... I will say you have to have steel balls to short this. Could be whales offering free XMR to catch shorters, while Polo doesn´t disclose data in BFXdata style we can´t be sure.

I would be nice if the community starts to ask Polo for the data so we can have PoloData kind of site to gain a layer of analisys. Let´s ask it in twitter, facebook, trollboxes and here. If there is enought pressure they will accept