[XMR] Monero Speculation

[explorer]

I will crosspost this from the Aeon thread as I think it has applicability to Monero too: 
 
I was honestly trying to wait for a GUI as the only secure computers I have are little Celeron weenies (which I'm not sure will run a full cryptonote client).  Command lines stress me out, especially third party tools like simplewallet - there's nothing like the relative security of knowing that you have a Linux computer that has only ever accessed the exchange once, and that was to withdraw to a GUI wallet (what I did back in the Dogecoin days).  I know the lack of a GUI helps keep out n00bs in these cryptonote projects, but you also create the counter-risk of having half-peasants like me feel like an exchange is the most secure place for their funds, lest they accidentally send them off into space or lose private keys by sudo-sumo-copying something wrong from a Linux command line. 
 
There are lots of n00bs now getting into Cryptonote and the lack of GUIs is becoming more and more of a hurdle every day - I have introduced several people even less tech savvy than myself to these cryptos in the past months, but these are people who are delighted and excited by trading Bitcoin on an exchange for the first time - but the concept of creating a Monero or Aeon cold address and sending funds to it on a Linux distro would be 'rocket science' for them and utterly outside of their skill set, even with significant support.  Indeed we have now created a scenario that instead of protecting n00bs actually gives them just enough rope to hang themselves. 
 
The likelihood of another Gox or Cryptsy is significant, no matter how trustworthy or professional the exchange seems.  I had hoped the GUI could be an effective bridge in this regard, but I am getting the vibe that proper GUIs might be months away for these projects, forcing me to consider other options.

I had the same dilemma.  I had a substantial (for me) sum on polo and mymonero, and wasn't really happy about it. I was waiting (procrastinating) to get a new SSD for my desktop, and install/learn Linux before setting up a node and trying the CLI wallet.  The new database with Hydrogen Helix release allowed me to forge ahead though, even with my weak little laptop, and simplewallet really is simple. It took seconds after download to be up and running (a lot longer to sync blockchain, of course). GUI will be HUGE, IMO, but for just safe storage, and not regular usage, CLI is not so bad even for me. In fact, just messing around with it since install I have expanded my horizons considerably.  Not to saddambitcoin's admirable extent, but with his inspirational story, who knows!

[saddambitcoin]

Pegasus, I understand your concerns but I would like to try and assuage your fears because I know it to be not so scary, and I was largely unfamiliar with the command line when I started figuring it out.

I'm not saying go all out and send all your XMR right away, but the only way to learn is by trying it out and using it. Send small test amounts back and forth between you and the exchange. Make a cold wallet, then restore the wallet from its seed.

A couple corrections though:
1. simplewallet is not a third-party tool, it is the official reference client for Monero until the wallet GUI comes out, and even then the GUI is just a wrapper for simplewallet.

2. As long as you backup your wallet and write down the seed, there is no way to send your coins into a void, unless you copy-paste someone else's address without checking, which could happen just the same with a GUI. The biggest risk I can think of could be forgetting to include a payment ID when sending to Polo, which is humanly fixable by contacting their support.

I encourage you to try it out!
https://getmonero.org/downloads

[iCEBREAKER]

A chain fork (and resulting market behavior) is not evidence that LTC will withstand a technological failure that Bitcoin cannot.

The actual occurrence of a Bitcoin chain fork (which is a form of technological failure, especially when it results from a botched upgrade), has already demonstrated LTC's utility in that type of scenario.

I'm not saying LTC will remain immune to and withstand ANY AND ALL Bitcoin failure modes, just a significant subset of them.

Given my hypothesis has already been proven by actual events, I don't see how it's a disputable statement, unless you narrow the definition of "technological failure" until it excludes upgrade fiascos resulting in chain forks.

Perhaps we should explicitly define "technological failure" as only events which take down both BTC and LTC.  Then you get to be right by circular logic, which is pretty much exactly what you were trying to do in a more subtle manner.   

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

I will crosspost this from the Aeon thread as I think it has applicability to Monero too:  
  
I was honestly trying to wait for a GUI as the only secure computers I have are little Celeron weenies (which I'm not sure will run a full cryptonote client).  Command lines stress me out, especially third party tools like simplewallet - there's nothing like the relative security of knowing that you have a Linux computer that has only ever accessed the exchange once, and that was to withdraw to a GUI wallet (what I did back in the Dogecoin days).  I know the lack of a GUI helps keep out n00bs in these cryptonote projects, but you also create the counter-risk of having half-peasants like me feel like an exchange is the most secure place for their funds, lest they accidentally send them off into space or lose private keys by sudo-sumo-copying something wrong from a Linux command line.  
  
There are lots of n00bs now getting into Cryptonote and the lack of GUIs is becoming more and more of a hurdle every day - I have introduced several people even less tech savvy than myself to these cryptos in the past months, but these are people who are delighted and excited by trading Bitcoin on an exchange for the first time - but the concept of creating a Monero or Aeon cold address and sending funds to it on a Linux distro would be 'rocket science' for them and utterly outside of their skill set, even with significant support.  Indeed we have now created a scenario that instead of protecting n00bs actually gives them just enough rope to hang themselves.  
  
The likelihood of another Gox or Cryptsy is significant, no matter how trustworthy or professional the exchange seems.  I had hoped the GUI could be an effective bridge in this regard, but I am getting the vibe that proper GUIs might be months away for these projects, forcing me to consider other options.

There is already a GUI I am using it working fine. You still should run a local Monero node but can use the LightWallet2 GUI. If you are using Windows download Monero client at https://getmonero.org/downloads/ unzip to a folder on your desktop. Run bitmonerod until the blockchain is synched. You will also need to download LightWallet2 at https://getmonero.org/getting-started/choose. Download the LightWallet.exe and put in your Monero folder. While bitmonerod is running in a command console and synced messsage shows start up Lightwallet by clicking on the exe in your Monero folder and follow instructions. Now you have the privacy of a local Monero node with a GUI to send and receive Monero.

[regexlove]

http://bit.ly/Prediction-XMR-dump

time for a dump


(Edit: Quoted link below had a typo)

[explorer]

http://bit.ly/Prediction_XMR_dump

time for a dump!

You're going to need 100K+ coins to make much of a (momentary) dent, but please, borrow mine 

[iCEBREAKER]

Crosspost:

UPDATE! Monero is back up on ShapeShift. So sorry for the delay. Buy or sell XMR instantly with ShapeShift: https://shapeshift.io/?pair=btc_xmr

{*RALLYING INTENSIFIES*}

[birr]

I will crosspost this from the Aeon thread as I think it has applicability to Monero too:  
  
I was honestly trying to wait for a GUI as the only secure computers I have are little Celeron weenies (which I'm not sure will run a full cryptonote client).  Command lines stress me out, especially third party tools like simplewallet - there's nothing like the relative security of knowing that you have a Linux computer that has only ever accessed the exchange once, and that was to withdraw to a GUI wallet (what I did back in the Dogecoin days).  I know the lack of a GUI helps keep out n00bs in these cryptonote projects, but you also create the counter-risk of having half-peasants like me feel like an exchange is the most secure place for their funds, lest they accidentally send them off into space or lose private keys by sudo-sumo-copying something wrong from a Linux command line.  
  
There are lots of n00bs now getting into Cryptonote and the lack of GUIs is becoming more and more of a hurdle every day - I have introduced several people even less tech savvy than myself to these cryptos in the past months, but these are people who are delighted and excited by trading Bitcoin on an exchange for the first time - but the concept of creating a Monero or Aeon cold address and sending funds to it on a Linux distro would be 'rocket science' for them and utterly outside of their skill set, even with significant support.  Indeed we have now created a scenario that instead of protecting n00bs actually gives them just enough rope to hang themselves.  
  
The likelihood of another Gox or Cryptsy is significant, no matter how trustworthy or professional the exchange seems.  I had hoped the GUI could be an effective bridge in this regard, but I am getting the vibe that proper GUIs might be months away for these projects, forcing me to consider other options.

There is already a GUI I am using it working fine. You still should run a local Monero node but can use the LightWallet2 GUI. If you are using Windows download Monero client at https://getmonero.org/downloads/ unzip to a folder on your desktop. Run bitmonerod until the blockchain is synched. You will also need to download LightWallet2 at https://getmonero.org/getting-started/choose. Download the LightWallet.exe and put in your Monero folder. While bitmonerod is running in a command console and synced messsage shows start up Lightwallet by clicking on the exe in your Monero folder and follow instructions. Now you have the privacy of a local Monero node with a GUI to send and receive Monero.

So that's your answer:  download the blockchain and run a full node.

Sir, did you not see the word "n00b" that American Pegasus typed with his hot little fingers?

Don't you realize that the vast majority of people have no idea of even how to approach such a task?  It is foreign to all but a tiny subset of the population.  You, monsieur, occupy a very small nerd-world.

[bitjedi]

I will crosspost this from the Aeon thread as I think it has applicability to Monero too:  
  
I was honestly trying to wait for a GUI as the only secure computers I have are little Celeron weenies (which I'm not sure will run a full cryptonote client).  Command lines stress me out, especially third party tools like simplewallet - there's nothing like the relative security of knowing that you have a Linux computer that has only ever accessed the exchange once, and that was to withdraw to a GUI wallet (what I did back in the Dogecoin days).  I know the lack of a GUI helps keep out n00bs in these cryptonote projects, but you also create the counter-risk of having half-peasants like me feel like an exchange is the most secure place for their funds, lest they accidentally send them off into space or lose private keys by sudo-sumo-copying something wrong from a Linux command line.  
  
There are lots of n00bs now getting into Cryptonote and the lack of GUIs is becoming more and more of a hurdle every day - I have introduced several people even less tech savvy than myself to these cryptos in the past months, but these are people who are delighted and excited by trading Bitcoin on an exchange for the first time - but the concept of creating a Monero or Aeon cold address and sending funds to it on a Linux distro would be 'rocket science' for them and utterly outside of their skill set, even with significant support.  Indeed we have now created a scenario that instead of protecting n00bs actually gives them just enough rope to hang themselves.  
  
The likelihood of another Gox or Cryptsy is significant, no matter how trustworthy or professional the exchange seems.  I had hoped the GUI could be an effective bridge in this regard, but I am getting the vibe that proper GUIs might be months away for these projects, forcing me to consider other options.

There is already a GUI I am using it working fine. You still should run a local Monero node but can use the LightWallet2 GUI. If you are using Windows download Monero client at https://getmonero.org/downloads/ unzip to a folder on your desktop. Run bitmonerod until the blockchain is synched. You will also need to download LightWallet2 at https://getmonero.org/getting-started/choose. Download the LightWallet.exe and put in your Monero folder. While bitmonerod is running in a command console and synced messsage shows start up Lightwallet by clicking on the exe in your Monero folder and follow instructions. Now you have the privacy of a local Monero node with a GUI to send and receive Monero.

So that's your answer:  download the blockchain and run a full node.

Sir, did you not see the word "n00b" that American Pegasus typed with his hot little fingers?

Don't you realize that the vast majority of people have no idea of even how to approach such a task?  It is foreign to all but a tiny subset of the population.  You, monsieur, occupy a very small nerd-world.

This is how the majority of coin wallets work.  They are full nodes.  You are looking for a SPV or web wallet for Monero which does exist https://mymonero.com/#/  However, because most real users of monero look for the utmost anonymity, they would rather not communicate with a web wallet or SPV node that would talk to a centralized node.  This is a huge reason for monero users not wanting to participate in Dash with their master nodes or whatever you call them.  Over time, there will be easier and still secure interfaces for monero, but for now, these are the recommended methods that guarantee privacy and anonymity.

[explorer]

I will crosspost this from the Aeon thread as I think it has applicability to Monero too: 
 
I was honestly trying to wait for a GUI as the only secure computers I have are little Celeron weenies (which I'm not sure will run a full cryptonote client).  Command lines stress me out, especially third party tools like simplewallet - there's nothing like the relative security of knowing that you have a Linux computer that has only ever accessed the exchange once, and that was to withdraw to a GUI wallet (what I did back in the Dogecoin days).  I know the lack of a GUI helps keep out n00bs in these cryptonote projects, but you also create the counter-risk of having half-peasants like me feel like an exchange is the most secure place for their funds, lest they accidentally send them off into space or lose private keys by sudo-sumo-copying something wrong from a Linux command line. 
 
There are lots of n00bs now getting into Cryptonote and the lack of GUIs is becoming more and more of a hurdle every day - I have introduced several people even less tech savvy than myself to these cryptos in the past months, but these are people who are delighted and excited by trading Bitcoin on an exchange for the first time - but the concept of creating a Monero or Aeon cold address and sending funds to it on a Linux distro would be 'rocket science' for them and utterly outside of their skill set, even with significant support.  Indeed we have now created a scenario that instead of protecting n00bs actually gives them just enough rope to hang themselves. 
 
The likelihood of another Gox or Cryptsy is significant, no matter how trustworthy or professional the exchange seems.  I had hoped the GUI could be an effective bridge in this regard, but I am getting the vibe that proper GUIs might be months away for these projects, forcing me to consider other options.

There is already a GUI I am using it working fine. You still should run a local Monero node but can use the LightWallet2 GUI. If you are using Windows download Monero client at https://getmonero.org/downloads/ unzip to a folder on your desktop. Run bitmonerod until the blockchain is synched. You will also need to download LightWallet2 at https://getmonero.org/getting-started/choose. Download the LightWallet.exe and put in your Monero folder. While bitmonerod is running in a command console and synced messsage shows start up Lightwallet by clicking on the exe in your Monero folder and follow instructions. Now you have the privacy of a local Monero node with a GUI to send and receive Monero.

So that's your answer:  download the blockchain and run a full node.

Sir, did you not see the word "n00b" that American Pegasus typed with his hot little fingers?

Don't you realize that the vast majority of people have no idea of even how to approach such a task?  It is foreign to all but a tiny subset of the population.  You, monsieur, occupy a very small nerd-world.

I'm a total noob to CLI.  I did it with the only hiccups related to my internet (so called)connection.  It isn't anywhere near as difficult as I had led myself to believe.

windows:
click download. click unzip. click bitmonerod. wait for sync. click simplewallet.  follow prompts and you're there.  It tells you what to type to issue commands.  that's basically it.  Lots of help available if you run into issues.  I wouldn't want to talk my 72 y.o. mother through it, but almost anyone else can do it, I'm sure.  It DOES scare people away but the GUI is coming Soon ^tm

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

I will crosspost this from the Aeon thread as I think it has applicability to Monero too:  
  
I was honestly trying to wait for a GUI as the only secure computers I have are little Celeron weenies (which I'm not sure will run a full cryptonote client).  Command lines stress me out, especially third party tools like simplewallet - there's nothing like the relative security of knowing that you have a Linux computer that has only ever accessed the exchange once, and that was to withdraw to a GUI wallet (what I did back in the Dogecoin days).  I know the lack of a GUI helps keep out n00bs in these cryptonote projects, but you also create the counter-risk of having half-peasants like me feel like an exchange is the most secure place for their funds, lest they accidentally send them off into space or lose private keys by sudo-sumo-copying something wrong from a Linux command line.  
  
There are lots of n00bs now getting into Cryptonote and the lack of GUIs is becoming more and more of a hurdle every day - I have introduced several people even less tech savvy than myself to these cryptos in the past months, but these are people who are delighted and excited by trading Bitcoin on an exchange for the first time - but the concept of creating a Monero or Aeon cold address and sending funds to it on a Linux distro would be 'rocket science' for them and utterly outside of their skill set, even with significant support.  Indeed we have now created a scenario that instead of protecting n00bs actually gives them just enough rope to hang themselves.  
  
The likelihood of another Gox or Cryptsy is significant, no matter how trustworthy or professional the exchange seems.  I had hoped the GUI could be an effective bridge in this regard, but I am getting the vibe that proper GUIs might be months away for these projects, forcing me to consider other options.

There is already a GUI I am using it working fine. You still should run a local Monero node but can use the LightWallet2 GUI. If you are using Windows download Monero client at https://getmonero.org/downloads/ unzip to a folder on your desktop. Run bitmonerod until the blockchain is synched. You will also need to download LightWallet2 at https://getmonero.org/getting-started/choose. Download the LightWallet.exe and put in your Monero folder. While bitmonerod is running in a command console and synced messsage shows start up Lightwallet by clicking on the exe in your Monero folder and follow instructions. Now you have the privacy of a local Monero node with a GUI to send and receive Monero.

So that's your answer:  download the blockchain and run a full node.

Sir, did you not see the word "n00b" that American Pegasus typed with his hot little fingers?

Don't you realize that the vast majority of people have no idea of even how to approach such a task?  It is foreign to all but a tiny subset of the population.  You, monsieur, occupy a very small nerd-world.

If you would take the time to read the LightWallet GUI repo at Github you would discover that you do not need to download and run a full Monero node. Lightwallet default setting is to use Atrides open node at http://node.moneroclub.com:8880, but you can change the node it uses to a local node during setup or at any launch; to use a local bitmonerod instance set it as http://localhost:18081.

LightWallet2 allows you to run Monero as a lightweight wallet. All the instructions you need are at the GitHub repo. Even a noob should be able to follow the instructions, if not ask in channel for advice. Those who want maximum privacy will still want to run their own full node. The choice is yours.

[LucyLovesCrypto]

I will crosspost this from the Aeon thread as I think it has applicability to Monero too:  
  
I was honestly trying to wait for a GUI as the only secure computers I have are little Celeron weenies (which I'm not sure will run a full cryptonote client).  Command lines stress me out, especially third party tools like simplewallet - there's nothing like the relative security of knowing that you have a Linux computer that has only ever accessed the exchange once, and that was to withdraw to a GUI wallet (what I did back in the Dogecoin days).  I know the lack of a GUI helps keep out n00bs in these cryptonote projects, but you also create the counter-risk of having half-peasants like me feel like an exchange is the most secure place for their funds, lest they accidentally send them off into space or lose private keys by sudo-sumo-copying something wrong from a Linux command line.  
  
There are lots of n00bs now getting into Cryptonote and the lack of GUIs is becoming more and more of a hurdle every day - I have introduced several people even less tech savvy than myself to these cryptos in the past months, but these are people who are delighted and excited by trading Bitcoin on an exchange for the first time - but the concept of creating a Monero or Aeon cold address and sending funds to it on a Linux distro would be 'rocket science' for them and utterly outside of their skill set, even with significant support.  Indeed we have now created a scenario that instead of protecting n00bs actually gives them just enough rope to hang themselves.  
  
The likelihood of another Gox or Cryptsy is significant, no matter how trustworthy or professional the exchange seems.  I had hoped the GUI could be an effective bridge in this regard, but I am getting the vibe that proper GUIs might be months away for these projects, forcing me to consider other options.

You can avoid most use of the command line (except to practice recovering cold wallets with simplewallet) by using these two tools:

http://xmr.llcoins.net/checktx.html
https://moneroaddress.org/

This process is less difficult than you think. The above tools are extremely easy to use.

Most of the steps in the guide below deal with verifying authenticity of the tools being used with GPG signatures and cryptographic hashing which are skill-sets that I recommend all cryptocurrency users develop no matter which coins they are interested in.

If you decide to wait for a GUI instead of developing the skill-set I just mentioned you are doing a disservice to yourself.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/48cgmd/an_extensive_guide_for_securely_generating_an/

Once you have your cold wallets set up you can verify receipt by your cold wallet without running a node yourself.

[TrueCryptonaire]

http://bit.ly/Prediction_XMR_dump

time for a dump

I do not have any need for dump as long as there are profits to make from lending XMR. So I am sorry to say to you I am not dumping even if I will have to regret it later. Monero is a hit-or-miss game.

[Johnny Mnemonic]

Given my hypothesis has already been proven by actual events, I don't see how it's a disputable statement, unless you narrow the definition of "technological failure" until it excludes upgrade fiascos resulting in chain forks.

Perhaps we should explicitly define "technological failure" as only events which take down both BTC and LTC.  Then you get to be right by circular logic, which is pretty much exactly what you were trying to do in a more subtle manner.   

If a chain fork is your idea of a black swan technological failure, then I guess you have nothing to worry about, because the worst has already happened  Do as you wish.

[iCEBREAKER]

Given my hypothesis has already been proven by actual events, I don't see how it's a disputable statement, unless you narrow the definition of "technological failure" until it excludes upgrade fiascos resulting in chain forks.

Perhaps we should explicitly define "technological failure" as only events which take down both BTC and LTC.  Then you get to be right by circular logic, which is pretty much exactly what you were trying to do in a more subtle manner.   

If a chain fork is your idea of a black swan technological failure, then I guess you have nothing to worry about, because the worst has already happened  Do as you wish.

Some black swans are bigger than others.

The time Bitcoin broke but was quickly fixed (while Litcoin was fine and enjoyed a price spike) was just a tiny black swanling.

I don't worry about the biggest ones, which would take out BTC and LTC, such as a giant meteor of doom or Vogons destroying the planet.

The gamut between those two extremes is where it gets interesting, unless we relay on lazy thinking like "No True Black Swan would disrupt/degrade/destroy Bitcoin but leave Litecoin alone."   

[regexlove]

http://bit.ly/Prediction-XMR-dump
time for a dump

(Link had a typo before)

[TrueCryptonaire]

http://bit.ly/Prediction-XMR-dump
time for a dump

(Link had a typo before)

I took the following chart on Polo: 1 w and 30 mins.
Correct me if I am wrong but to me it looks like very classical ascending triangle ( http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/ascendingtriangle.asp ).

I do not bother to click (short) links for security reasons, unless the link is trusted.

[regexlove]

Here is a full link for you   https://www.betmoose.com/bet/monero-xmr-dumped-below-0_00321-again-before-april-20-1837?ref=regexlove
(You can also set a browser extention to switch off javascript for bit.ly links and others)

1 week technical analysis doesnt matter for long term holders.
Pumps can look like common patterns. The point is, they are rather short.

Monero is a hit-or-miss game

 Why do you care about keeping the price up today, instead of getting closer to the average, when the current volume and price are hysteric form a long term holder's point of view? It is generally not benefitial for serious long term assets to be made looking like gambling

For long term relevance, you'd rather refer to a long term chart.
Is it a neutral/positive/negative/turning trend?  
Independently of trend, why do you think the yellow EMA will not cross the brown EMA again soon?

[TrueCryptonaire]

Here is a full link for you,
https://www.betmoose.com/bet/monero-xmr-dumped-below-0_00321-again-before-april-20-1837?ref=regexlove
(You can also set a browser extention such as Adblock Plus to switch off javascript for bit.ly links and others)

1 week technical analysis doesnt matter for long term holders.
Pumps can look like common patterns. The point is, they are rather short.

Monero is a hit-or-miss game

 So why do you care about keeping the price up today, instead of getting closer to the average, when the current price is rather hysteric form a long term holders point of view. It is not benefitial for serious long term things to be made looking like gambling.

For long term relevance, you'd rather refer to a long term chart.
Is it a neutral/positive/negative/turning trend?  
Independently of trend, why do you think will consolidation not make yellow MA cross the brown MA again soon?

Actually I do not care short term fluctuations. To me now it is pretty irrelevant if Monero costs 1.70 usd (the current price), 1.60 usd or 1.80 usd.
I am more concerned by the trendline. It is actually good for the coin to have bullish trend.
You are right, if dump comes it is perceived as a chance to buy lower to average down.
The other way to see the bull trend is to view it as a coin that has been severely underpriced for long and now it is simply correcting with tons of support.
But as you said, for me it is okay if the price drops - I guess there are takers for the dump...? Despite many short positions are closed, there still are open positions that need to be covered at some point so that also put some pressure for price (my lending portfolio is currently been 100 % employed but luckily some of the shorts will close soon so I will be able to update the interest rates according to the current market conditions ie increase the lower rates).

Given the bid size to the support (previous resistance), you indeed need quite many coins to dump and personally I ain't dump mine. The gain for such dump is pretty small and probably the dumper will not get those coins back anymore at lower price.

[explorer]

Here is a full link for you   https://www.betmoose.com/bet/monero-xmr-dumped-below-0_00321-again-before-april-20-1837?ref=regexlove
(You can also set a browser extention to switch off javascript for bit.ly links and others)

1 week technical analysis doesnt matter for long term holders.
Pumps can look like common patterns. The point is, they are rather short.

Monero is a hit-or-miss game

 Why do you care about keeping the price up today, instead of getting closer to the average, when the current volume and price are hysteric form a long term holder's point of view? It is generally not benefitial for serious long term assets to be made looking like gambling

For long term relevance, you'd rather refer to a long term chart.
Is it a neutral/positive/negative/turning trend?  
Independently of trend, why do you think the yellow EMA will not cross the brown EMA again soon?
https://i.imgur.com/Tt8tZ3T.png

Interesting.  I suppose it is possible to short it down to .00321 within 4 weeks, but with the trend upward across cryptoland, and current polo order book sitting at  626 BTC support at that level  (174k XMR  - also happens to be typical available lending float) as of this post, it does seem unlikely.  On the other hand, if the trend falters, the shorting wolves tend to pile on quickly, so I wouldn't count it out.  I would tend to take the other side of the bet, though.