[XMR] Monero Speculation

[regexlove]

Yes - high Monero interest rates express demand for short deals - or that it is risky to hold it now.

More strikingly Bitcoin's interest rates on Poloniex was 3 times higher than Monero's during the last days, and Bitcoin's interest rate on Poloniex often jumped way too high in the last 1-2 month. (Which is for another reason than if it was an Altcoin, since Bitcoin's interest rate is lower elsewhere.) Combined with the crazy volumes on Poloniex and another coin being pumped every week,  this indicates pumper's presence...

[TrueCryptonaire]

Bitcoin interest rates are higher (or should be) because bitcoin is traded in all the margin trading pairs. Monero is trading only against bitcoin in margin trading.
Therefore it is expected that the interest rate of Monero is way lower than the interest rate of bitcoin.

[thelibertycap]

Independently of trend, why do you think the yellow EMA will not cross the brown EMA again soon?

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

[regexlove]

Bitcoin interest rates are higher (or should be) because bitcoin is traded in all the margin trading pairs.

Bitcoin's marketcap is also much higher than all other cryptos combined. So Bitcoin's interest rate on Poloniex can only remain high if you assume exessive use of margin trading; Pumpers buying more Altcoins on Poloniex than reasonable, which lenders didnt notice yet.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Philosophically interesting thought!
I was just answering on technical analysis - and generally all past combined is more important than the price of the day/week, especially if there were no big news these days. Prices are assumed and idealized to be transparent and to be close to a well informed/reasonable consenus. Long term averages just show the current state free from short-term hype/fud/pump/dump.

Here is a full link for you   https://www.betmoose.com/bet/monero-xmr-dumped-below-0_00321-again-before-april-20-1837?ref=regexlove
(You can also set a browser extention to switch off javascript for bit.ly links and others)

1 week technical analysis doesnt matter for long term holders.
Pumps can look like common patterns. The point is, they are rather short.

Monero is a hit-or-miss game

 Why do you care about keeping the price up today, instead of getting closer to the average, when the current volume and price are hysteric form a long term holder's point of view? It is generally not benefitial for serious long term assets to be made looking like gambling

For long term relevance, you'd rather refer to a long term chart.
Is it a neutral/positive/negative/turning trend?  
Independently of trend, why do you think the yellow EMA will not cross the brown EMA again soon?
https://i.imgur.com/Tt8tZ3T.png

Interesting.  I suppose it is possible to short it down to .00321 within 4 weeks, but with the trend upward across cryptoland, and current polo order book sitting at  626 BTC support at that level  (174k XMR  - also happens to be typical available lending float) as of this post, it does seem unlikely.  On the other hand, if the trend falters, the shorting wolves tend to pile on quickly, so I wouldn't count it out.  I would tend to take the other side of the bet, though.  

Yes! Yet i was watching live at the high volume candles and saw some bitcoin buy orders with 50-250 BTC each jump / disappear a lot
The Major dropping candles had less volume than it seemed to require minutes earlier.
I think a drop below 0.00321, including even a momentary one is very likely soon,  which is why betting closes after few day.

I meant to chose the price and long duration, so that it is almost too easy to believe in them and few people bet NO,
besides if the bet can reach some public exposure - then it challenges pump&dumpers to pay more NO bets than YES bets - and make their scheme a little less profitable.
In this sense I think such predictions/futures can improve(balance out) markets and prevent some manipulation or hystery.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Yes the interest rate of btc is high because the pumpers of every coin need to borrow btc, not just Monero pumpers. I think currently probably the most of bitcoins borrowed will be channeled towards ETH purchases, but this is only speculation based on trading volumes.

[CryptoAddict]

Below 320? I doubt it. xmr is evolving fast and there is more good stuff ahead. people are starting to see this and are more confident in holding for long term. atleast this is why I'm not even thinking about selling yet. I'm adding on dips, but I'm not gambling with my stash and selling hoping to buy back cheaper.

I don't think you can do effective TA with the chart zoomed out to the very beginning lol. Focus on a more recent period, since volume has been at a whole new level this year.

[dEBRUYNE]

Monero added to Cryptopia:

https://www.cryptopia.co.nz/Exchange/?market=XMR_BTC

[inca]

What are you doing with your 440,000 aeon stash? Why are you not market making or pushing the market around in that smaller paddling pool?

I could do that.  It would be easy.  I could take that sum and bully down the bids mercilessly and put up bully walls to incite panic, and then buy back cheaper.  I estimate if I did it skillfully I could probably turn those 400k Aeon into 500k. 
 
But I won't do that.  I will hold those Aeon hard, and continue supporting the community as we go.  It's about more than money for me, and I want people to know that though I am heavily invested in Aeon, I'm not some bully whale who wants to profit off their backs.  I made a loud declaration of support for the Aeon blockchain, backed it up with an acquisition, and now will simply hold the spot.  If/when Aeon moves to Poloniex and there exists an XMR/AEON pair I will provide some liquidity for this, but only as a service to the community with little expectation of profit. 
 
Besides, I noticed upon looking at risto's 'bitcoin rich list' (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=321265.0) that no known holder of Bitcoin ever held more than 400k-ish of Bitcoin (aside from Satoshi himself).  Some of these people were legendary computer scientists and I feel that it would be foolish for me to ignore their historical precedent.  For some reason, of an asset with approximately 18 to 21 million total tokens, no single entity no matter how rich has ever publicly controlled greater than 400k.  That's good enough for me. 
 
I suspect Monero should be the same (though we would honestly never know).  No single entity should probably seek to control over 400k XMR for long term saving either.  Personally I have significantly less than that at the present, so hell yes I will fight tooth and nail for every single one I can get my hands on, but I wouldn't seek to overdo it. 
 
But what do I know - I'm just some guy, not an oracle.

I meant using the 440k stash to support the price. I am fairly sure the reason there has always been an heavily weighted long:short ratio on finex for btc is because miners use their coins as long collateral.

You could do the same. If you are sufficiently large as a whale then you can move the market upwards with little or no fear of a bigger whale dumping on you. Timed around key technical landmarks for the coin and you can directly help to upsize the market cap.

[dEBRUYNE]

"Blockstream’s Jonas Nick with 7 Tips for Better Bitcoin User Privacy" - Monero Mentioned

http://coinjournal.net/blockstreams-jonas-nick-with-7-tips-for-better-bitcoin-user-privacy/

Thanks to dnaleor for finding it!

[regexlove]

there is more good stuff ahead

sure! you can say that about several.
- How did monero change in the last 7 days?

Simply,
vertical price movements are not sustainable! Spikes retract without news big enough to justify more than a portion of them.  (insider trading is unlikely for this open project?)

Yes, several cryptos gained worth starting in January/Feburary. Dash, Bitshares, Factom, Counterparty and so on doubled in price. Ethereum and Maidsafe gained most since i assume people are interested in biggest ones that represent the novelties of smart contracts and peer2peer internet. Yet all remain volatile now, especially those showing unnatrual volume through margin trading etc.
- So did Monero. It reached almost 3 times the price in December/January and stayed near for some weeks.  
1 week ago though the price and volume went up further and too fast

Like others Monero is in the top 20 since a while and it (CryptoNight) represents some unique approach to reach more anonymous transactions and is meant for mining by
CPUs/GPUs only (through requiring lots of expensive cache memory resulting in low hash rates).  Some enthusiasm, some fear/sceptics/dust.
- Yes, Pumpers rely on some real basis.
 Why couldn't Monero rise 4x? like Maidsafe did (as of now)
Monero has no popularily stunning novelty, but rather interesting to think about (is anonymity better? is gpu mining more democratic?),  Miners/botnets and people/causes seeking to operate anonymously all of which is a narrower niche, so for now 2-3 times the price seems good enough to join the others that moved up.  
Other Cryptonite currencies did not move up much yet. So there are funds missing in the remaining Crpytonite economy to catch up, before part of the rise could be considered sustainable. And it is reasonable to assume, these days, the spike is pending to turn.  While Hystery/Pumps both start from something real, they can't last very long and those people gain the most, who decide the exact dates to start and to turn back, followed by the exchanges/fees, while most others are just losing from their gambling or being pushed into something unexpected.
- If a Price rises moderately it remains higher sooner and less energy is wasted.  If you are interested in Monero's success you will have doubt about the price move this week. Even a steady 100% a year looks very horiziontal on a 1 week chart.

[dEBRUYNE]

there is more good stuff ahead

you can say that about many cryptos.
- What happend to monero in the last 7 days?

Simply,
vertical price movements without news can not be sustainable!    (insider trading is unlikely for this open project.)

Yes, several cryptos gained worth starting in January/Feburary. Dash, Bitshares, Factom, Counterparty and so on doubled in price. Ethereum and Maidsafe gained most since people are interested in the novelties of smart contracts and peer2peer internet, all remain volatile now, especially those showing unnatrual volume on Poloniex through margin trading i guess. 
- So did Monero. It reached and stayed some weeks around almost 3 times the price in December/January.  
1 week ago though the price and volume went up further and too fast.
rather vertical than horizontal, without any big news!   
Like others Monero is in the top 20 since a while and it (=CryptoNight) represents some unique approach to reach more anoymous transactions and is meant for mining by
CPUs/GPUs only (through requiring lots of expensive cache memory resulting in very low hash rates).  
Some enthusiasm, some fear, some sceptics, some dust(old news).

- Yes, Pumps rely on some real basis.  
Why couldn't Monero rise 4x? like Maidsafe did (as of now)  Monero has no popularily stunning novelty, but rather interesting for thinking (is anonymity better? is gpu mining more democratic?),  Miners/botnets and people/causes seeking to operate anonymously.
For now 2-3 times the price seems good enough just to join the others who moved up.
Other Cryptonite currencies did not move up as much yet. So there are funds missing in the remaining Crpytonite economy to catch up, before the rise could be considered sustainable. So it is reasonable to assume the dump is pending - more neutrally, the spike is pending to turn.
 
While Hystery/Pumps both start from something real, they cant last very long and the people gain the most who decide the dates to start and to turn back.
Next to the exchange fees, but most others are just losing from their gambling or being pushed into something unexpected.
If a Price rises moderately it remains higher sooner and less energy is wasted. 
If you are interested in Monero's success you are not convinced the pump was good now.

So a succesful hardfork that enforces fungibility on the protocol level, the MS azure news, and the ring multisignature blog aren't considered "news"?

Furthermore, the assertion that an increase in price needs to be accompanied by news is kind of a fallacy.

[Febo]

sure! you can say that about many.
- What happend to monero in the last 7 days?

on 24th March as soon as  this https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/azure-blockchain-update-7/ was published, price of Monero gained 15%.  


I do suggest you next time to read this thread, before making any moves.

Generally that is not some brilliant news ( apparently Monero team did almost no effort to achieve that), but price act strange on news. Most strange was reaction on news that Monero will be listed on Mintpal in June 2014. Price rose 5 times to 0.01+ Why i say was strange is because on that exchange was never any significant volume and latter owners robbed their clients and run with the coins. Opposite of that was New year of 2016 when was released Monero 0.9.0, code name "Hydrogen Helix". That was what everyone was waiting for more then a year. and if you check exchanges, this news did nothing. Monero started rising a month after it.

[regexlove]

Yes, read about Azure earlier, good news, just many cryptos are endorsed by Azure by now.
Just saying close to 50% price range in 7 days is not sustainable here and at high marketcap.  
Agreed the new version could have caused a more sustainable jump, while the Mintpal story sounds like presence of Pump/Hystery.

[binaryFate]

Yes, i read about Azure earlier, good news, Many cryptos are endorsed by Azure by now.   
Close to 50% price range in 7 days is just not yet a sustainable percentage at this marketcap.

Looks to me you're just talking your own book.

[generalizethis]

sure! you can say that about many.
- What happend to monero in the last 7 days?

on 24th March as soon as  this https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/azure-blockchain-update-7/ was published, price of Monero gained 15%.  


I do suggest you next time to read this thread, before making any moves.

Generally that is not some brilliant news ( apparently Monero team did almost no effort to achieve that), but price act strange on news. Most strange was reaction on news that Monero will be listed on Mintpal in June 2014. Price rose 5 times to 0.01+ Why i say was strange is because on that exchange was never any significant volume and latter owners robbed their clients and run with the coins. Opposite of that was New year of 2016 when was released Monero 0.9.0, code name "Hydrogen Helix". That was what everyone was waiting for more then a year. and if you check exchanges, this news did nothing. Monero started rising a month after it.

I think unexpected news drives the movement more dramatically, like a herd of gazelle taking flight after hearing a monkey snap a twig--unexpectedly, whereas they will drink from the same pool of water as a thirsty lion--though they are watching him very, very carefully.

[regexlove]

exactly, thats it!

[slapper]

LOL at everyone getting worked up over a FACTOM shill https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=341386;sa=showPosts;start=0

Go ahead, make her day.

(Next up will be her trade history and how much she had made, just watch). Sadly this is the nth TC replica and there will be more and more in the coming days.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I just bought 900 additional XMR and they were insta-lent. Thank you for borrowing my Moneros. 60 days at discounted interest rate so the borrower got "good deal"... However, when the repayment arrives, I think he has to pay more for those Moneros.

[CryptoAddict]

Regexlove you are short as fuck, it's obvious what you are trying to do, even went extra mile to set up the betting and all.

Where do you get 321k from? Let me tell you; your ass. You think that sequence of numbers will have psychological impact? Like 3,2,1 - DUMP! lol..

I just bought 900 additional XMR and they were insta-lent. Thank you for borrowing my Moneros. 60 days at discounted interest rate so the borrower got "good deal"... However, when the repayment arrives, I think he has to pay more for those Moneros.

You must have lent those 900 at a very low rate. I'm somewhat confused why a big holder would want to offer cheap lending, especially at a critical time when we are hovering around 400k-ish. If we all were less greedy and offered less lending we would probably moon faster, and in the end profit more than whatever we earn from lending. Care to share your perspective?

[TrueCryptonaire]

Regexlove you are short as fuck, it's obvious what you are trying to do, even went extra mile to set up the betting and all.

Where do you get 321k from? Let me tell you; your ass. You think that sequence of numbers will have psychological impact? Like 3,2,1 - DUMP! lol..

I just bought 900 additional XMR and they were insta-lent. Thank you for borrowing my Moneros. 60 days at discounted interest rate so the borrower got "good deal"... However, when the repayment arrives, I think he has to pay more for those Moneros.

You must have lent those 900 at a very low rate. I'm somewhat confused why a big holder would want to offer cheap lending, especially at a critical time when we are hovering around 400k-ish. If we all were less greedy and offered less lending we would probably moon faster, and in the end profit more than whatever we earn from lending. Care to share your perspective?

Yes unfortunately I was unable to lend them for better rates.  
I agree that shorting is a pain in the short run but in the long run it is bullish to have outstanding short positions.
The combination of lowering emission and an open short position at interest is a financial suicide for the shorter as he has to purchase the initial capital borrowed + interests. Therefore, in the long run, high interest rates are extremely bullish for Monero or any other coin.
It is like the following: if there are plenty of opportunities in other currency to get premium ROI a lot of other economies will leak funds to the economy that gives premium returns and thus the currency of high ROI country appreciates against the other currencies.
In real life we see this happening: ECB is speaking about quantitative easining (and doing is also) vs. FED is expected to raise interests, this makes USD stronger against euro.

My lending portfolio represents only a small piece of coins I own. The portfolio is approximately the same size as I used to use for trading. Lending is less risky for me than trading and dumping (+ I do not get so much hatred in the forums when I am lending as opposed to dumping on the peaks and flipflopping).

Later I do not need to buy Moneros from the markets to support the exchange rate as the borrowers will buy those coins for me instead.