[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Globb0]

A fond goodbye to our friend and contributor, warptangent

https://forum.getmonero.org/1/news-announcements-and-editorials/2519/a-fond-goodbye-to-our-friend-and-contributor-warptangent

R.I.P.

xx

[birr]

Man you gotta wonder what they hell is going on with dash ...

Nothing at all.

Some idiot at btc38 accidentally put in an order to buy Dash for 95 btc each, instead of an order to buy at 95 dash per btc.  He spent about 318 btc on 3.353 Dash.  The market of btc/dash on btc38 is very thin, its mostly traded in CNY there.

This trade is greatly impacting coinmarketcap's computation of the Dash price.

Stuff like this happens frequently and never has any lasting impact, exceptfor the guy who got 300 free btc, and the guy who is out 300 btc.

Funny that a guy would have 300 btc just sitting there on an exchange and ready to be fat-fingered away.  Somebody with 300 btc to throw around would know better.  Are you sure that's what happened?  It almost seems like some person had two accounts and was on both sides of the trade.  Could have been on purpose.  So either it was an idiot or somebody who was crazy like a fox.

[slapper]

You don't have to know who is dumping, just look at charts for last 2 years. Welcome to dump city.

Marginal costs of botnet miners is nothing, or relatively nothing = dumping intensifies.  It's a disseservice to the honest miners and coin ihhabitants to allow them a gateway into the coin.  Whether this whole CPU friendly algo will pay off in the future in some manner, I have no idea, but it definitely did not in the past for overall coin health.  I think I was mentioning this would happen the 2nd day the coin was released.  

The price would be way higher than now with a GPU advantage algo.  First reason, better network effect because history has shown GPU mining always wins in that regard..  Second reason, the marginal cost blackhole doesn't exist, which is kind of related to the first.

With the recent hardfork it was proven that not more than 10% (+-5% for more accuracy) of the hash rate is botnet. Botnet and GUI are just an excuse to manipulate the market according to individual positions. Everyone knows that there will be traders controlling the price of the market, but the very culture of holding and respecting prices is lacking. There are other things broken and burnt bridges that is going to take a lot longer than bringing a GUI.

If we use jargons like network effect, then we must also accept that a LOT goes with it and what constitutes building it. Simply throwing technology superiorities is never going to cut it.

[r0ach]

With the recent hardfork it was proven that not more than 10% (+-5% for more accuracy) of the hash rate is botnet.

They're probably all just temporarily mining eth till the bubble implodes, or some other random coin in a bubble.

[CrowdWhale]

With the recent hardfork it was proven that not more than 10% (+-5% for more accuracy) of the hash rate is botnet.

They're probably all just temporarily mining eth till the bubble implodes, or some other random coin in a bubble.

You really seem to have an agenda.

[TheKoziTwo]

You don't have to know who is dumping, just look at charts for last 2 years. Welcome to dump city.

Marginal costs of botnet miners is nothing, or relatively nothing = dumping intensifies.  It's a disseservice to the honest miners and coin ihhabitants to allow them a gateway into the coin.  Whether this whole CPU friendly algo will pay off in the future in some manner, I have no idea, but it definitely did not in the past for overall coin health.  I think I was mentioning this would happen the 2nd day the coin was released.  

The price would be way higher than now with a GPU advantage algo.  First reason, better network effect because history has shown GPU mining always wins in that regard..  Second reason, the marginal cost blackhole doesn't exist, which is kind of related to the first.

With the recent hardfork it was proven that not more than 10% (+-5% for more accuracy) of the hash rate is botnet. Botnet and GUI are just an excuse to manipulate the market according to individual positions. Everyone knows that there will be traders controlling the price of the market, but the very culture of holding and respecting prices is lacking. There are other things broken and burnt bridges that is going to take a lot longer than bringing a GUI.

If we use jargons like network effect, then we must also accept that a LOT goes with it and what constitutes building it. Simply throwing technology superiorities is never going to cut it.

Instead of whining about dumps or people "controlling the market" why not try to profit from it ? If we presume your theory is true, whoever is controlling the market acquired the XMR's (or BTC) used to control that marked from the market itself, fair and square. And guess what? You could do the exact same thing!

Speculators gather an asset when nobody wants it and what does that help with? It prevents the price from going too low! Without speculators, XMR might have completely died off. On the other end of the spectrum speculators will sell when the price is in bubble mode thus ensuring that the price will not go too high. Increase in speculators also results in more stability and smaller price swings as they all compete for profit and their profit margins goes down.

If you have a market with thousands of speculators the "big whales controlling the market" will lose their power as they will be eaten alive by all the small fish acting against them. For example a big dump may be eaten up by speculators who all "take delivery" of their coins. A whale is not beyond the laws of nature. There is no magic here. It's all supply and demand and if you buy all what the whale dumps, he will eventually be left with zero.

I also expect less large dumps over time as the price goes up due to the third party risk involved with leaving money on exchanges.

[smooth]

With the recent hardfork it was proven that not more than 10% (+-5% for more accuracy) of the hash rate is botnet.

They're probably all just temporarily mining eth till the bubble implodes, or some other random coin in a bubble.

Or maybe the botnet theory was shallow reasoning (CPU-friendly alg, therefore botnets) and wrong (or at least exaggerated) all along.

In 2014 there were loud and frequent claims of the mining being botnet-dominated. Well it turns out that was in time proven untrue and most of the mining was being done with cloud computing (verified by at least two sources).

Yes there are botnets but they don't really have zero cost, and seem to be a limited share of the network. The more mining is done in a bot node the more likely it is to be disinfected by its owner. Other uses of botnets may have a better return on investment, and putting mining on such a node increases the attrition rate (i.e. depreciation cost) and may therefore be unprofitable. Many bot nodes are older and inefficient, and have a very low hash rate even before factoring in the necessary throttling for stealth (and certainly after). The current network is about 60K mid- to high-end desktops (or a slightly lower number of midrange GPUs). As bot nodes that would be hundreds of thousands or millions. If such botnet(s) existed it would be making headlines. It probably doesn't exist.

Empirically mining is reasonably profitable even if you pay for electricity (with some combination of low rate and/or efficient equipment). If there were a lot of botnets with 'zero costs' the difficulty would be driven higher (which might even be a good thing from a security perspective). Botnet mining capacity seems somewhat self-limiting, for better or worse. So, again, such botnet domination of mining probably doesn't exist.

All of which was true even before Eth, btw.

Also, at the present time mining is a rather small portion of market activity, something in the neighborhood of 1% of daily trading volume. Speculators and holders are much more important market participants now.

[Monerobuyer0]

It's all supply and demand and if you buy all what the whale dumps, he will eventually be left with zero.

I think this has already happened to at least one whale.  The guy who was putting up 100k XMR sell walls back down below 200k. 

Big walls ended up getting eaten, and then we rocketed higher.  I havent seen any walls nearly that large since, so I am guessing this guy got left behind, and now has either no xmr or a significantly reduced amount that he is no longer willing to part with.

Again, the recent price decline didnt seem like one whale dumping, but rather 100 traders all dumping on the same day as they got spooked by a bitcoin rise, and then some of them dumping put the other's margin positions in peril, which resulted in a chain of dumps to eliminate margin.

[Monerobuyer0]

With the recent hardfork it was proven that not more than 10% (+-5% for more accuracy) of the hash rate is botnet.

They're probably all just temporarily mining eth till the bubble implodes, or some other random coin in a bubble.

r0ach, what is your angle here?

First you made a thread saying Monero would be the next 10x coin.  Then you made a thread saying every alt would crash.  Now you're complaining about Monero mining being botnet driven, even though I think the recent hard fork pretty much eliminated the possibility that most of the hash rate was from a botnet, as smooth astutely explained.


If you are interested in being part of the Monero community and holding some Monero long term, that's great, but if you are just here to trade and post bullish things when you are long and bearish things when you are short, then well, we can already look through years of TrueCryptonaire's posts to see that.

[smooth]

With the recent hardfork it was proven that not more than 10% (+-5% for more accuracy) of the hash rate is botnet.

They're probably all just temporarily mining eth till the bubble implodes, or some other random coin in a bubble.

r0ach, what is your angle here?

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=attention+whore

(BTW, I don't necessarily mean that in a negative way. Creating attention-getting threads and posts helps keep the discussion vibrant. People like r0ach and a few others who do so intelligently are an asset to the forum.)

[binaryFate]

Guys, I want to calm down. I am still bullish on Monero and historically that has been a good sign. I have been bearish for so long time which made me perhaps the most hated person in this thread, but also I have been right thanks to my bearishness for so long time.
I am still looking forward to BTC-XMR parity which we will reach probably in the years to come step by step. Time to start stocking Moneros again.

The bolded part is insulting the intelligence of the people in that thread. You suggest we are circle jerking and immediately hate anyone who expresses criticism or bearish sentiment.
If you get some hate, which is a strong word, or at least disdain, it's because of your flip-flopping following your own position.

[boolberry]

Guys, I want to calm down. I am still bullish on Monero and historically that has been a good sign. I have been bearish for so long time which made me perhaps the most hated person in this thread, but also I have been right thanks to my bearishness for so long time.
I am still looking forward to BTC-XMR parity which we will reach probably in the years to come step by step. Time to start stocking Moneros again.

The bolded part is insulting the intelligence of the people in that thread. You suggest we are circle jerking and immediately hate anyone who expresses criticism or bearish sentiment.
If you get some hate, which is a strong word, or at least disdain, it's because of your flip-flopping following your own position.

The flip flopping bothered me at first, but not so much any more. His signature essentially admits he is guilty of the allegation. I respect honesty.

[aminorex]

Another alternative investments meetup is coming this week.  I was thinking of showing a pitch deck reporting 8x gains from 14 Jan 2015 to 24 Mar 2016, and describing my upside targets under various contingencies.

EDIT: typo and precision fixes.

[birr]

Another alternative investments meetup is coming this week.  I was thinking of showing a pitch deck reporting 8x gains from 14 Jan 2015 to 24 Mar 2016, and describing my upside targets under various contingencies.

EDIT: typo and precision fixes.

Assuming it's in New York
I might be able to go.  Can you provide a link...?

[wpalczynski]

Guys, I want to calm down. I am still bullish on Monero and historically that has been a good sign. I have been bearish for so long time which made me perhaps the most hated person in this thread, but also I have been right thanks to my bearishness for so long time.
I am still looking forward to BTC-XMR parity which we will reach probably in the years to come step by step. Time to start stocking Moneros again.

The bolded part is insulting the intelligence of the people in that thread. You suggest we are circle jerking and immediately hate anyone who expresses criticism or bearish sentiment.
If you get some hate, which is a strong word, or at least disdain, it's because of your flip-flopping following your own position.

I hate the guy.  He annoys the hell out of me bragging about his free lunches and his real estate rental empire.

[aminorex]

Hash rate is now up about 50% over the past 6 months, and has fully recovered from the fork.

[r0ach]

r0ach, what is your angle here?

First you made a thread saying Monero would be the next 10x coin.  Then you made a thread saying every alt would crash.  Now you're complaining about Monero mining being botnet driven, even though I think the recent hard fork pretty much eliminated the possibility that most of the hash rate was from a botnet, as smooth astutely explained.


If you are interested in being part of the Monero community and holding some Monero long term, that's great, but if you are just here to trade and post bullish things when you are long and bearish things when you are short, then well, we can already look through years of TrueCryptonaire's posts to see that.

What angle?  The Eth hashrate is at an all-time high along with the price, so logically it probably drew some botnets off Monero.  I don't believe the botnet statistic taken at that particular time is a good benchmark of the norm for Monero, as they are probably leeching off Eth at the moment.

"Being part of the Monero community" lol, look at the original Monero thread, I was there on like page 2 of the thread with Tacotime.  Right at the coin release, I was saying block time should be higher, CPU algo will be detrimental to the economics of the coin, and if you're going to have inflation as a "feature", you might as well go for 1% in order to replace coins lost per year and subsidize transaction fees.  The inflation thing is the slippery slope, and if I was making a coin today with what I know now, I would go with zero, but that's a different topic.  I was attempting to back higher for Monero because of the fast, 4 yr mine period that creates a make or break it moment in a short period of time, so the higher inflation would pick up the slack for that aspect that I consider to be somewhat of a mistake.

At the time, I was on somewhat of an ideology that the purpose of a currency should not be inflationary or deflationary, but equilibrium.  If there's going to be bazillions of coins lost over time due to strong encryption blunders, death while holding coins and no way for outsiders to recover them, etc, then crypto would be more like a problematic hyper deflationary system than mild deflation.  Since then, I believe inflation is really just a social engineering scheme that people can avoid by doing things like using stocks or indices as a store of value.  As long as some outlet exists where people can resist your social engineering, it's kind of pointless, and inflation is arbitrary central banking anyway.  The number Monero picked is kind of  trivial where it doesn't even matter, but the fact that it exists creates the slippery slope that it can be increased by some random Joe at any time without really even breaking a social contract since the value is so arbitrary in the first place.

Yea, Monero probably will be the next 10x coin.  The problem is, someone inorganically tried to engineer that bull run way too close to BTC halving.  That's a logistics mistake on their part, not mine.  Ethbutters barely got away with doing it by the skin of their teeth and this Monero run came way later.  I personally never would have attempted what Ethbutters did trying to move that market so high close to halving, so whoever thought it would be a good time to do it on Monero definitely needs more experience in these markets.  I never stated that Monero was going to go up 10x in one day or one week.  All alts are going to get slaughtered during the BTC halving pump.  You can either constantly move in and back out of alts for no reason over and over during the volatility, or just stay out of the alt market till it's  over.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Guys, I want to calm down. I am still bullish on Monero and historically that has been a good sign. I have been bearish for so long time which made me perhaps the most hated person in this thread, but also I have been right thanks to my bearishness for so long time.
I am still looking forward to BTC-XMR parity which we will reach probably in the years to come step by step. Time to start stocking Moneros again.

The bolded part is insulting the intelligence of the people in that thread. You suggest we are circle jerking and immediately hate anyone who expresses criticism or bearish sentiment.
If you get some hate, which is a strong word, or at least disdain, it's because of your flip-flopping following your own position.

I hate the guy.  He annoys the hell out of me bragging about his free lunches and his real estate rental empire.

Yup. And the worst part in the story: I get wealthier every day, the passive income comes in all the time and I spend less than I "earn".  

[r0ach]

Yup. And the worst part in the story: I get wealthier every day, the passive income comes in all the time and I spend less than I "earn".  

Your forum icon reminds me of Tokyoghetto because he used the same picture before.  The guy who worked on Wall Street then came into crypto and bought a random shitcoin called the Hobonickel. I told him the Hobonickel was a weapon of financial terrorism.  I think Max Keiser stole that quote from me.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=406112.msg4975466#msg4975466

[wpalczynski]

Guys, I want to calm down. I am still bullish on Monero and historically that has been a good sign. I have been bearish for so long time which made me perhaps the most hated person in this thread, but also I have been right thanks to my bearishness for so long time.
I am still looking forward to BTC-XMR parity which we will reach probably in the years to come step by step. Time to start stocking Moneros again.

The bolded part is insulting the intelligence of the people in that thread. You suggest we are circle jerking and immediately hate anyone who expresses criticism or bearish sentiment.
If you get some hate, which is a strong word, or at least disdain, it's because of your flip-flopping following your own position.

I hate the guy.  He annoys the hell out of me bragging about his free lunches and his real estate rental empire.

Yup. And the worst part in the story: I get wealthier every day, the passive income comes in all the time and I spend less than I "earn".  

And your wealth is such that you are too frugal to buy yourself a coffee while out on the town as you wrote a while back.