[XMR] Monero Speculation

[r0ach]

Poloniex holds more then 50% XMR, mostley because there is no GUI, if they go mtgox XMR is doomed

Probably more like all alts at this point.

[jwinterm]

Poloniex holds more then 50% XMR, mostley because there is no GUI, if they go mtgox XMR is doomed

Probably more like all alts at this point.

There's no way that 50% of XMR is on Poloniex. There's 389k on the order book out of a total of 16.3M. Let's say that 5% of the XMR held by Poloniex is on the sell side, to be conservative, that would be ~6M, still less than 50% of total supply, and I think that's being way too conservative...probably they hold a couple million at most.

[elrippo]

Could be, i hope i am wrong, but it tastes too much the same as last year...

Last year the facts were profoundly different.  Facts beat pareidolia every time.

What differentiates this years ascent in price vs. last years is the dramatically larger volume this year.  In addition observe the difference in velocity of the price decline after reaching the peak last year vs. now.

It still looks and tastes like last years spike guys.... 

[explorer]

Could be, i hope i am wrong, but it tastes too much the same as last year...

Last year the facts were profoundly different.  Facts beat pareidolia every time.

What differentiates this years ascent in price vs. last years is the dramatically larger volume this year.  In addition observe the difference in velocity of the price decline after reaching the peak last year vs. now.

It still looks and tastes like last years spike guys.... 

  Last year turned quickly on 430 and eventually went south of 100.  Conditions are different now.  Last year had >50% higher emission, way lower trade volume, and fewer participants.  I'm making no upside predictions, but barring some catastrophy, I don't think I'll be able to lower my average price by cost averaging.  Playing the volatility is all that's left 

[elrippo]

Could be, i hope i am wrong, but it tastes too much the same as last year...

Last year the facts were profoundly different.  Facts beat pareidolia every time.

What differentiates this years ascent in price vs. last years is the dramatically larger volume this year.  In addition observe the difference in velocity of the price decline after reaching the peak last year vs. now.

It still looks and tastes like last years spike guys.... 

  Last year turned quickly on 430 and eventually went south of 100.  Conditions are different now.  Last year had >50% higher emission, way lower trade volume, and fewer participants.  I'm making no upside predictions, but barring some catastrophy, I don't think I'll be able to lower my average price by cost averaging.  Playing the volatility is all that's left 

Agreed 

[sandiman]

Very interesting to see you discussing about Monero valuation, looks like we've got some experts here .

I am following on a daily basis the cryptocommunity since december 2015 and it's true that monero lacks terribly of marketing/sales power.

I was wondering if any of you had an idea why? Because you can have the best project ever, if you don't sell it then....

XMR community collectively decided to delay marketing until such time as RAM-saving database and GUI are ready.  We're long past the first checkpoint, and progress to the second is well underway.

A few Wild & Free mustangs went ahead with some awareness increasing campaigns (xmrpromotions and Pegasus), and those initial efforts have already resulted in (or at least correlated with) large price/volume increases and lots of chatter on /r/* (esp when Zcash/fungibility/tracking are discussed).

When the GUI is done, we'll use the forum funding system to make a Superbowl halftime ad starring Pegasus and Fluffypony!   

Thank you for the quick answer. I will keep an eye on Monero from now one  .

[TrueCryptonaire]

The interest rates are dropping which is a sign the next leg up is on the horizon. Approximately 1/3 of the short positions I am offering have been closed which tells me the shorters are believing the price will not drop from here at least in a significiant amounts anymore but start to prepare the next leg upwards rather.

[CryptoAddict]

Sellers = Greedy shorters that expect XMR to follow same pattern as last year. They will be liquidated.

Look at VOLUME!

The last 2 months, we have had approximately 2 500 000 XMR traded per week !!!

Last year, if you average out the weekly volume from February till july (the ENTIRE pump/dump cycle) you end up with a measly 450 000 XMR traded per week.

PS: After reading through the last pages I know who our bear whale is. It's so easy to see if someone is long or short by their writing. Don't want to name, let's just say it's legendary.

[luigi1111]

Poloniex holds more then 50% XMR, mostley because there is no GUI, if they go mtgox XMR is doomed

Probably more like all alts at this point.

There's no way that 50% of XMR is on Poloniex. There's 389k on the order book out of a total of 16.3M. Let's say that 5% of the XMR held by Poloniex is on the sell side, to be conservative, that would be ~6M, still less than 50% of total supply, and I think that's being way too conservative...probably they hold a couple million at most.

Great analysis. Where did you go to decide 16.3M is a useful number?

PS: After reading through the last pages I know who our bear whale is. It's so easy to see if someone is long or short by their writing. Don't want to name, let's just say it's legendary.

Am I long or short?

[meme magic]

that would be a really neat vote. every week pull names from the thread and we all vote whether we think theyre long or short :p

[papa_lazzarou]

Sellers = Greedy shorters that expect XMR to follow same pattern as last year. They will be liquidated.

Look at VOLUME!

The last 2 months, we have had approximately 2 500 000 XMR traded per week !!!

Last year, if you average out the weekly volume from February till july (the ENTIRE pump/dump cycle) you end up with a measly 450 000 XMR traded per week.

PS: After reading through the last pages I know who our bear whale is. It's so easy to see if someone is long or short by their writing. Don't want to name, let's just say it's legendary.

This.

Plus, last year's pump was started because Risto said "My company will start buying, expect the price to rise" or something. There were no significant developments or news that I remember.

Very unlike this year:
- the long waited 0.9 release;
- added exposure through The Daily Decrypt + Fluffypony's interviews (particularly the one at Satoshi Roundtable);
- Shen's SDC destruction;
- more developers active on Monero.

[wpalczynski]

Could be, i hope i am wrong, but it tastes too much the same as last year...

Last year the facts were profoundly different.  Facts beat pareidolia every time.

What differentiates this years ascent in price vs. last years is the dramatically larger volume this year.  In addition observe the difference in velocity of the price decline after reaching the peak last year vs. now.

It still looks and tastes like last years spike guys.... 

How so exactly?

[elrippo]

Could be, i hope i am wrong, but it tastes too much the same as last year...

Last year the facts were profoundly different.  Facts beat pareidolia every time.

What differentiates this years ascent in price vs. last years is the dramatically larger volume this year.  In addition observe the difference in velocity of the price decline after reaching the peak last year vs. now.

It still looks and tastes like last years spike guys.... 

How so exactly?

It's the same behaviour, just different volume 

[jwinterm]

Poloniex holds more then 50% XMR, mostley because there is no GUI, if they go mtgox XMR is doomed

Probably more like all alts at this point.

There's no way that 50% of XMR is on Poloniex. There's 389k on the order book out of a total of 16.3M. Let's say that 5% of the XMR held by Poloniex is on the sell side, to be conservative, that would be ~6M, still less than 50% of total supply, and I think that's being way too conservative...probably they hold a couple million at most.

Great analysis. Where did you go to decide 16.3M is a useful number?

Because I'm a dumbass, and was perhaps slightly intoxicated, and looked at marketcap in USD instead of available supply here:
http://coinmarketcap.com/

Even replacing 16.3M with 11.5M, I still kinda doubt that Poloniex has 6M  sloshing around there.

[griffen1102]

For the bears lol.

[TheKoziTwo]

Sellers = Greedy shorters that expect XMR to follow same pattern as last year. They will be liquidated.

Look at VOLUME!

The last 2 months, we have had approximately 2 500 000 XMR traded per week !!!

Last year, if you average out the weekly volume from February till july (the ENTIRE pump/dump cycle) you end up with a measly 450 000 XMR traded per week.

PS: After reading through the last pages I know who our bear whale is. It's so easy to see if someone is long or short by their writing. Don't want to name, let's just say it's legendary.

You should out him! Let us all know who this bastard is!

[CTTE]

Sellers = Greedy shorters that expect XMR to follow same pattern as last year. They will be liquidated.

Look at VOLUME!

The last 2 months, we have had approximately 2 500 000 XMR traded per week !!!

Last year, if you average out the weekly volume from February till july (the ENTIRE pump/dump cycle) you end up with a measly 450 000 XMR traded per week.

PS: After reading through the last pages I know who our bear whale is. It's so easy to see if someone is long or short by their writing. Don't want to name, let's just say it's legendary.

This.

Plus, last year's pump was started because Risto said "My company will start buying, expect the price to rise" or something. There were no significant developments or news that I remember.

Very unlike this year:
- the long waited 0.9 release;
- added exposure through The Daily Decrypt + Fluffypony's interviews (particularly the one at Satoshi Roundtable);
- Shen's SDC destruction;
- more developers active on Monero.

Can we get Risto to say that again?   

[CryptoAddict]

It's the same behaviour, just different volume 

Are you just looking at weekly chart and coming up with that conclusion?

Let's zoom in to get a closer look, here is 3d chart and my take on why this is nothing like last year

[elrippo]

It's the same behaviour, just different volume 

Are you just looking at weekly chart and coming up with that conclusion?

Let's zoom in to get a closer look, here is 3d chart and my take on why this is nothing like last year

Well, the volumes where smaller 2015, so in conclusion to that, more people or bots are trading 2016 and the whole thing gets a bit limp, but in my interpretation this is the same thing 

[elrippo]

Sellers = Greedy shorters that expect XMR to follow same pattern as last year. They will be liquidated.

Look at VOLUME!

The last 2 months, we have had approximately 2 500 000 XMR traded per week !!!

Last year, if you average out the weekly volume from February till july (the ENTIRE pump/dump cycle) you end up with a measly 450 000 XMR traded per week.

PS: After reading through the last pages I know who our bear whale is. It's so easy to see if someone is long or short by their writing. Don't want to name, let's just say it's legendary.

Well, then give us 3 letters from the nickname and we will do the prediction