[XMR] Monero Speculation

[sparky999]

I dumped half of my XMR last night at .0140 because I was convinced it would struggle to go up and have a mini-crash / correction.... but this morning its now at .0155 ....UGH!

Still uncertain whether it'll rise or fall from this point. What do you guys think??  

 I would rather lose a few thousand dollars than miss the chance of a lifetime. But that's just me.

This.

[1714635474]

1714635474

[1714635474]

1714635474

[1714635474]

1714635474

[1714635474]

1714635474

[Hueristic]

Is XMR's rise too much, too soon? It would have been better if the rise was slow  ...

That's the nature of the animal.  Wishing won't change that.  Price was too low, so it had to go up.  There were 2.5 years to bid it up, but no one could be bothered.  

It will happen again and again.  As with bitcoin, so with Monero, only faster.  Much faster.

This is not true at all, if you remember there was a push by those that were trying to hold the line and have the emission cut because of the constant attacks and dumping. All the true believers took a beating or if they could afford to just threw their holdings in cold storage. Those without deep pockets got burned repeatedly over the years of manipulation and now deep pockets have moved in and orchestrated a long shakeout. It took me over a year just to break even and even after I divested I kept a node going. It would have been smarter to have dumped and grabbed ETH and ride that train and then get in again with the profits from that but that would have entailed jumping on a scam ICO and idealism was incompatible with that move. The big money and insider knowledge won again.

[nanobrain]

I dumped half of my XMR last night at .0140 because I was convinced it would struggle to go up and have a mini-crash / correction.... but this morning its now at .0155 ....UGH!

Still uncertain whether it'll rise or fall from this point. What do you guys think?? 

I considered it myself earlier today and thought better of it; while you can trick yourself into being 'reactive' the best strategy is often to stick with your original plan eg "I'm going to buy and see where we are in a week/month/year".  Its difficult when you watch the charts hawkishly not to get caught up in short term trends.

I'm sure the cryptogods will grant you a buy back dip

[Dafar]

I dumped half of my XMR last night at .0140 because I was convinced it would struggle to go up and have a mini-crash / correction.... but this morning its now at .0155 ....UGH!

Still uncertain whether it'll rise or fall from this point. What do you guys think??  

It's any mans guess rise or fall. Here's your analysis, 50/50. But I'll tell you this. I would rather get burned the one way than the other. I would rather lose a few thousand dollars than miss the chance of a lifetime. But that's just me.

I dumped half of my XMR last night at .0140 because I was convinced it would struggle to go up and have a mini-crash / correction.... but this morning its now at .0155 ....UGH!

Still uncertain whether it'll rise or fall from this point. What do you guys think?? 

I considered it myself earlier today and thought better of it; while you can trick yourself into being 'reactive' the best strategy is often to stick with your original plan eg "I'm going to buy and see where we are in a week/month/year".  Its difficult when you watch the charts hawkishly not to get caught up in short term trends.

I'm sure the cryptogods will grant you a buy back dip

Haha thanks, I agree with both of you...the long term game is much better than trying to time the market, if you believe in the coin's future that is.

But I've done that with bitcoin and while it's worked out well for me there were times when the dips were obvious and if I made moves instead of sitting and watching I could have had 2-3X more bitcoin than I have now.

One I'm worried about with Monero is that after this pump phase it might stay stagnant for a while and BTC might rise because imo it's overdue for a rise... thats gonna make the monero/btc parity even smaller and I'll be stuck holding monero until the next pump

[Anon136]

there were times when the dips were obvious and if I made moves instead of sitting and watching I could have had 2-3X more bitcoin than I have now.

Or you could have a lot less. It all would have depended on your timings. Hindsight is always so clear, don't assume your foresight would have been so clear.

[Anon136]

TLDR: Just read the bold bits

You know I don't how if anyone has considered this but monero should scale better than bitcoin even if bitcoins block size increased dynamically because mining centralization wouldn't have as negative of an impact on our project than it would bitcoin. That is to say, we can afford more centralization because mining centralization has a lower cost for us.

I mean what are the fears associated with centralization of miners. What are the reasons to be concerned about this. The main one. What you might call the marginal concern because its the one that matters before any others do, is transaction censorship. So suppose miners become centralized enough to censor some transactions, which would the censor!? Miners would have no idea which transactions were the bad sort.

Can someone twitter/social media that argument for me. Maybe get it retweeted by a majestic wild twitter pony. I would but I revile social media and so dont have any twitters or facebooks.

[iCEBREAKER]

Monero can handle a lot of transactions, from memory it was estimated to be something like 80%+ of what Visa currently does

80% of what Visa does is very aggressive and optimistic. I won't say it is impossible. Indeed Monero doesn't have "hard limits" and if we are willing to put the nodes in data centers (even many data centers spread around the world), then the transaction rate can be very, very high compared to Bitcoin. Bitcoin could also do this if it put nodes in data centers, but it would also need a social consensus to remove the hard limits and design ways to do that (dynamic block size, etc.). Monero would new fewer design changes or perhaps none at all.

The reddit link posted here quotes some numbers that are CPU-only and ignores bandwidth and storage concerns (as stated there). Even cheap consumer-grade storage isn't really a concern though, up to about 100 TPS. Bandwidth will be okay for some people in some markets and a show stopper for others. But it can be done.

So, ultimately, what it comes down to is we are limited more by the physical technologies (CPU, bandwidth, and storage; mostly bandwidth) and how that ties in with the desired degree of centralization, and not by hard limits in the coin design itself.

Great explanation.

Monero is still in the process of developing its basic specifications.  IE, we haven't even added RingCT/multisig.

Once the fundamentals are in place, then we may begin working on optimization.

All of this palaver about unoptimized, pre-RingCT Monero's tps capacity is transitory and, providing tps stay reasonably un-Visa-like, inconsequential.

[aminorex]

Never can quite decide if you are a visionary or a very wishful dreamer.

It's a fine line.  I am relatively clever, and rather idiosyncratically creative, so as long as I retain discipline I can reason relatively well, and derive some confidence in surprising results.  Training sometimes permits me to produce principled derivations with credible intervals. I don't know what's going to happen, but I know what I want to happen is fairly close to what I predict will happen - close enough to derive a statistical edge.  That alignment is why I am in Monero.  The difference between the two is the degree of vision vs. dream.  As long as I can discriminate between the two, I'm okay.

 I've been through enough market cycles of manic euphoria and depressive malaise to be partially immunized, at least, but not totally.  I kept buying through the long night, but I couldn't bring myself to post much then.  The malaise is demotivating, and I wouldn't want to spread it.  Spreading a little of the euphoria isn't too terribly bad, as long as it is balanced with prudent mitigating considerations. I don't usually post when I have a negative outlook since discouraging holders just hurts everyone, for the most part.  But if I don't post, that's only one possible reason, so don't infer that I have a negative outlook.  I'm not quite as uber as it may appear, but pretty close.

All of that is pretty self-involved.  But knowing your strengths and weaknesses is crucial to controlling for them, and hence to success.  In investing and trading alike: My worst weakness is emotion; my best strength is patience.  That is probably true for most people.  Vision undergirds patience.  Bullish AF.

In other news:  I am looking at you, litecoin.  There is no escape.

[TrueCryptonaire]

Looks like the buying has begun.

[aminorex]

I made my first darknet Monero purchase, an essential medicine for which I have a prescription. It was cheaper from India. Smooth as silk so far.  High rep vendor, FE, out of band, shipping from India to my country home...but mediated by AB.  1 Sept I will try the full AB system.

[infofront]

I wasn't aware you could get actual legit medications on DNMs. I may have to look into doing that.

[Febo]

One I'm worried about with Monero is that after this pump phase it might stay stagnant for a while and BTC might rise because imo it's overdue for a rise... thats gonna make the monero/btc parity even smaller and I'll be stuck holding monero until the next pump

When BTC pump, crypto will attract more people that never heard of it. after a week or so they will start to search for an alternative. And there will be Monero.  With BTC pump, Monero dont lose anything. Monero just gain.

[Dafar]

I wasn't aware you could get actual legit medications on DNMs. I may have to look into doing that.

I wouldn't call any penis enlargement medication "legit"

[aminorex]

I wasn't aware you could get actual legit medications on DNMs. I may have to look into doing that.

It gets harder and harder every day to buy low-cost prescription medications with credit cards.  For payments that actually work, there's Monero.

[infofront]

I wasn't aware you could get actual legit medications on DNMs. I may have to look into doing that.

It gets harder and harder every day to buy low-cost prescription medications with credit cards.  For payments that actually work, there's Monero.

That sounds like the voiceover to a commercial. It's true, though. The credit card companies have been cracking down on online pharmacies hard recently.
Little do they realize, they may be digging their own graves.

[nioc]

Is XMR's rise too much, too soon? It would have been better if the rise was slow  ...

That's the nature of the animal.  Wishing won't change that.  Price was too low, so it had to go up.  There were 2.5 years to bid it up, but no one could be bothered.  

It will happen again and again.  As with bitcoin, so with Monero, only faster.  Much faster.

Never can quite decide if you are a visionary or a very wishful dreamer. The day monero hits 10% of bitcoins value I will be entirely convinced it is the former. From that day forward I will want to hear everything you have to say

I have relished what aminorex has had to say for over 2 years.  For me it's not only what he says, (new ideas and perspectives), but how he writes in a way that causes me to think for myself about that what. 

[sparky999]

Looks like the breakout has failed - heavy sell wall at 0.016 was too much

[elrippo]

Hmmmm.....
In my honest opinion this whole pump is irrational, and the people following this pump act irrational.
If you can discuss in crypto using the terminus "rational" the way to go would be to pump, hold it for a while and then dump deaply. As this is not acuring yet, i believe this irrational behaviour will continue to a certain point and then the fall will be very hard.

Some factors to force the pump even more are
#1 The bitfinex hack
#2 The ETC/DAO hack

If these guys are smart and tend to like anonymity, they will propably use XMR to disguise their traces to some extent.

If i take a look at the price chart, the resistance 0,014 is at the moment speaking the strongest line --> which corresponds to a 23,6% fib from the last high.

There was a post in the morning stating a break out, no matter in what direction in the next 12 hours, so in the evening we will see if this irrational behaviour will continue, hold on to your coins, no matter if XMR or BTC  

[Billy Bunter]

My take is that the market is looking for a new Bitcoin - it wants desperately to replicate the experience of 2013. I wasn't involved in cryptocurrencies then and I imagine that the majority of people on Poloniex weren't either. We know about the great run of 2013 but we never experienced it ourselves. And we want to. Everyone does. Everyone wants the thrill of watching a currency taking off and not coming back down. We want the excitement, we want the sense of being winners in the right place at the right time, and we want the riches that come with it.

Most on Poloniex are agnostic when it comes to coins. They're only interested in the ones that are going to do it for them. Ethereum flew for a while but ultimately couldn't repeat the Bitcoin success because, fundamentally, no-one really knows what the fuck it does. The DAO farce was another nail in its coffin.

Monero has no pretensions to being anything other than what it is - fungible currency. People can get behind that and I believe they will.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I am looking at 1 hr chart on bitcoinwisdom.
To me it appears bullish and now just stability (pretty bullish triangle starting from 19th or 20th of August). The coming hours will show us to which direction to go.
I might be wrong, and my speculation do not affect on my trading because I simply hold, but I am inclined to think the coming months are good for Monero. I am 99 % sure the DNM acceptance will not harm the adaption of Monero. Therefore, if you think in the same manner and happen to want to sell some of your coins, may I suggest you to get the best price possible and put the coins for sale instead of dumping with slippage discount. Eventually the dark market customers will buy those coins - sooner or later and vendors most likely just hold as many Moneros as possible because of privacy reasons.