[XMR] Monero Speculation

[aminorex]

I am all in again.  50% retrace is another likely bottom, just like the 38.2 was.  Funny how hundreds of BTC sit just below the offer, and get ignored.  Then when they go away, it gets sold down.  

How can I stop wasting time like this?  It's not like I don't have a ridiculous amount of actually useful things I could be doing instead. I guess it's better than race cars.

[1715335305]

1715335305

[1715335305]

1715335305

[1715335305]

1715335305

[TrueCryptonaire]

Mr. donald mcscrooge:

Maybe you should refrain from not caring about price and dumps because people get influenced by your thoughts and kill the coin..   I am holding a tiny bag but it is important to me.. Your careless choice of words caused this crash..

Lol, I don't think I have such influence. If it drops then it is time to refill I guess. Selling low and buying high is not my way of making money. I have held a bag of Moneros since 2014 and if this fails completely I will lose 100% invested money but if it succeeds I will be incredibly wealthy.
If it loses I still have my other assets so it will not hurt that much. I am not so short sighted as many might have understood I am.

[RayX12]

Mr. donald mcscrooge:

Maybe you should refrain from not caring about price and dumps because people get influenced by your thoughts and kill the coin..   I am holding a tiny bag but it is important to me.. Your careless choice of words caused this crash..

Lol, I don't think I have such influence. If it drops then it is time to refill I guess. Selling low and buying high is not my way of making money. I have held a bag of Moneros since 2014 and if this fails completely I will lose 100% invested money but if it succeeds I will be incredibly wealthy.
If it loses I still have my other assets so it will not hurt that much. I am not so short sighted as many might have understood I am.

Thank you Mr Mcscrooge: I appreciate your support.. the price is already going up..   

[TrueCryptonaire]

Mr. donald mcscrooge:

Maybe you should refrain from not caring about price and dumps because people get influenced by your thoughts and kill the coin..   I am holding a tiny bag but it is important to me.. Your careless choice of words caused this crash..

Lol, I don't think I have such influence. If it drops then it is time to refill I guess. Selling low and buying high is not my way of making money. I have held a bag of Moneros since 2014 and if this fails completely I will lose 100% invested money but if it succeeds I will be incredibly wealthy.
If it loses I still have my other assets so it will not hurt that much. I am not so short sighted as many might have understood I am.

Thank you Mr Mcscrooge: I appreciate your support.. the price is already going up..   

If it is up to me the price should be 10000000000 usd/xmr but obviously I have no power over markets.

[DaveyJones]

Speaking of the GUI...

Update on the official GUI

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/50d54y/update_on_the_official_gui/

but it will, for example, allow users of the GUI to pay any Bitcoin address with Monero from their GUI wallet using an xmr.to plugin.

WOW!   this would be a fantastic ease of use feature! Allows quick and easy inclusion of all existing bitcoin accepting vendors. Very cool! I'm getting more excited every day!

Any particular reason why is the upcoming GUI integrated with XMR.to and not Shapeshift?

There seems to be differences between xmr.to and shapeshift which are significant enough for XMR developers to use the former...

You are overthinking this, the emphasis was on the Plug-In Tool for the Wallet.... anything can be put in there if someone writes the code for the plug-in

[nanobrain]

BAck into the 140s but someone does seem to be determined not to let the price rise too quickly/at all.  EDIT - back down before I can even finish posting.

The next week will be interesting. 

I suspect potential XMR users on AB have now bought their coins, so will vendors sell their new fangled Monero straightaway or hold?  I suspect most have cashflow demands that necessitate the former. Until a behavioural pattern emerges I believe some volatility may be ahead - good if you're a trading addict, painful for us hodlers.

I'm also expecting a lot of press exposure - some of it negative - "New anonymous coin empowers dealers, thieves and terrorists". 

Fun, fun, fun

[kurious]

The gui thing is actually starting to become a big deal now. Previously almost everyone in the community was comfortable with CLI and we had no need to rush adoption so it didnt really matter very much. But now as we see slightly wider spread adoption, more people who are not comfortable with CLI are coming into the space. The problem here is that this probably means people are keeping WAY too many monero on the exchange. Making it a very ripe target for attack. A lot of people might get burned because of this.

While of course the GUI will be nice, and an added bonus, I don't think it's that big of a deal.

Consider the following three broad categories:

Early adopters - (you covered this already, but anyways   ) while the gui will be some icing on the cake, I would say most of us are comfortable enough with the command line. Also, we're already in; we may provide support in the event of a price drop, and liquidity as the price rises,  but you will not see significant growth from this group at this point (assuming we've all entered long ago and are happy with our respective positions)

Speculators: these guys pretty much need to keep their coins on exchange anyways; whether they are loaning coins, borrowing coins, making a market through open bid and ask positions, etc.

DNM users: typically they would be holding relatively small amounts for short periods of time. I think Shapeshift and MyMonero are sufficient for this use case. Or, even easier and more important than a GUI, if there were a fiat/xmr exchange that they can use to simply buy Monero and transfer direct to the online merchant...

I think this analysis completely ignores a broad new swath of users. Future historians my find them to still be very early indeed, but lets call them, for lack of a better term, late adopters. This is the group my post was concerned with.

But I guess the whole post is moot. It looks like we are getting our gui sometime within the next 2 weeks or so . I was never one of those people who was gui obsessed but I'm certainly excited about its impending arrival.

Agreed - I do think it is myopic to say it's 'no big deal'

I have struggled through CLI learning curve on my Mac (with Saddam's encouragement and other's including Anon's kind offers of help) and no-one I know would even understand what I was talking about.   With the increase in value - the temptation for hackers who must be salivating at one single exchange with (likely) so much stored wealth lying around (which, if they steal, cannot be traced, remember) will be incredible.

Even MyMonero must have people snooping around looking for ways in.  There could be a black swan event with only one exchange and a simple web wallet site out there, the compromise of either being something we could do without.

Storing XMR safely is NOT easy for 99% of computer users - and even a few hundred is now money you can lose sleep over.

Sorry to keep banging on, but I am one of these people - and there are many millions of me!

[Ratatosk]

Storing XMR safely is NOT easy for 99% of computer users - and even a few hundred is now money you can lose sleep over.

Download https://github.com/jwinterm/LightWallet2/releases
Extract https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/releases in same folder

Launch Lightwallet, and done, easy...

[GingerAle]

Storing XMR safely is NOT easy for 99% of computer users - and even a few hundred is now money you can lose sleep over.

Download https://github.com/jwinterm/LightWallet2/releases
Extract https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/releases in same folder

Launch Lightwallet, and done, easy...

Storing it is incredibly easy.

Accessing it is not as easy, but still easy if you spend 5 minutes to learn the CLI. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIRMM3F1jsE

[coinits]

Storing XMR safely is NOT easy for 99% of computer users - and even a few hundred is now money you can lose sleep over.

This comment is beyond stupid. It's pure FUD. Go away with your nonsense.

[coinits]

Storing XMR safely is NOT easy for 99% of computer users - and even a few hundred is now money you can lose sleep over.

Download https://github.com/jwinterm/LightWallet2/releases
Extract https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/releases in same folder

Launch Lightwallet, and done, easy...

Storing it is incredibly easy.

Accessing it is not as easy, but still easy if you spend 5 minutes to learn the CLI. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIRMM3F1jsE

I'm in my 50's with limited computer skills. I use the command line client. If one can read and follow instructions then is is as easy as driving a car. Still a lot of people driving cars without reading their manual and can't figure out how to do certain things. Not the car's fault just like it is not XMR's fault.

[dEBRUYNE]

Storing XMR safely is NOT easy for 99% of computer users - and even a few hundred is now money you can lose sleep over.

Why not take a few hours to learn and understand this guide? It has videos and pictures and therefore should be easy to follow.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/48cgmd/an_extensive_guide_for_securely_generating_an/

[ungchy]

Has anyone heard about the Tor strike tomorrow?
If they really do that it would be the most stupid idea to do anything an a DNM
on the 1st September.

https://ghostbin.com/paste/kmnzz

[phishead]

The gui thing is actually starting to become a big deal now. Previously almost everyone in the community was comfortable with CLI and we had no need to rush adoption so it didnt really matter very much. But now as we see slightly wider spread adoption, more people who are not comfortable with CLI are coming into the space. The problem here is that this probably means people are keeping WAY too many monero on the exchange. Making it a very ripe target for attack. A lot of people might get burned because of this.

While of course the GUI will be nice, and an added bonus, I don't think it's that big of a deal.

Consider the following three broad categories:

Early adopters - (you covered this already, but anyways   ) while the gui will be some icing on the cake, I would say most of us are comfortable enough with the command line. Also, we're already in; we may provide support in the event of a price drop, and liquidity as the price rises,  but you will not see significant growth from this group at this point (assuming we've all entered long ago and are happy with our respective positions)

Speculators: these guys pretty much need to keep their coins on exchange anyways; whether they are loaning coins, borrowing coins, making a market through open bid and ask positions, etc.

DNM users: typically they would be holding relatively small amounts for short periods of time. I think Shapeshift and MyMonero are sufficient for this use case. Or, even easier and more important than a GUI, if there were a fiat/xmr exchange that they can use to simply buy Monero and transfer direct to the online merchant...

I think this analysis completely ignores a broad new swath of users. Future historians my find them to still be very early indeed, but lets call them, for lack of a better term, late adopters. This is the group my post was concerned with.

But I guess the whole post is moot. It looks like we are getting our gui sometime within the next 2 weeks or so . I was never one of those people who was gui obsessed but I'm certainly excited about its impending arrival.

Agreed - I do think it is myopic to say it's 'no big deal'

I have struggled through CLI learning curve on my Mac (with Saddam's encouragement and other's including Anon's kind offers of help) and no-one I know would even understand what I was talking about.   With the increase in value - the temptation for hackers who must be salivating at one single exchange with (likely) so much stored wealth lying around (which, if they steal, cannot be traced, remember) will be incredible.

Even MyMonero must have people snooping around looking for ways in.  There could be a black swan event with only one exchange and a simple web wallet site out there, the compromise of either being something we could do without.

Storing XMR safely is NOT easy for 99% of computer users - and even a few hundred is now money you can lose sleep over.

Sorry to keep banging on, but I am one of these people - and there are many millions of me!

I am definitely one of those people, believe me. The thing is, your going to have a ton of questions that come up when you are doing this stuff; atleast I did. That's normal though! I would suggest hanging around the #monero channel on freenode IRC, there are people asking and answering questions there all the time.

I thought I was being too annoying asking these seemingly mundane questions that everyone seemed to know the answer too, but this community is great in that they will and usually like helping people get through whatever trouble your having.

It's super convenient when trying to learn CLI or doing whatever to just ask in a chat room like that, rather than waiting for responses on forums or something like that.

[TookDk]

Storing XMR safely is NOT easy for 99% of computer users - and even a few hundred is now money you can lose sleep over.

Download https://github.com/jwinterm/LightWallet2/releases
Extract https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/releases in same folder

Launch Lightwallet, and done, easy...

Storing it is incredibly easy.

Accessing it is not as easy, but still easy if you spend 5 minutes to learn the CLI. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIRMM3F1jsE

I'm in my 50's with limited computer skills. I use the command line client. If one can read and follow instructions then is is as easy as driving a car. Still a lot of people driving cars without reading their manual and can't figure out how to do certain things. Not the car's fault just like it is not XMR's fault.

I would prefer a gui as well. Nevertheless, the 4 basic things you need to learn is not too difficult:
1. Sync Wallet
2. Check ballance
3. Transfer funds
4. Receive funds

Its explained not too tech savvy here:
https://monerobase.com/Simplewallet

1. The wallet sync goes more or less automatic, just open (double click) bitmonerod.exe (this application handle the blockchain)
2. Then open simplewallet, if opening for the first time, then follow the instructions to create a new wallet. Once you are done, you can check your balance by typing "balance".  
3. Transfer is a bit more difficult if not used to using command lines. However there is a nice template in the link above.

Code:

transfer 3 493JYDeY6taJV2bXYsa4vh2kkub7URErJ4B3cN7NKeNG5JFlNr3iTo4jJbS35AxcTgErouA8x8gLo9C2AiBu27i4KFMXXcp 5.32 93af87e91c0f2a14ay0a7198f45a458673d724b9c110d355c9effe81a64de4f7

if you are using windows standard commandline, then can you copy (ctrl-c) a address from a browser and paste it into the command line by right clicking on the mouse.
4. That is the most easy part, the sender only need to know your monero address, you don't need to worry about payment id. Payment ID is only to differentiate difference transfers that goes to the same address.

In any case, try playing around with a few XMR just to learn the basics.

[coinism]

BAck into the 140s but someone does seem to be determined not to let the price rise too quickly/at all.  EDIT - back down before I can even finish posting.

The next week will be interesting. 

I suspect potential XMR users on AB have now bought their coins, so will vendors sell their new fangled Monero straightaway or hold?  I suspect most have cashflow demands that necessitate the former. Until a behavioural pattern emerges I believe some volatility may be ahead - good if you're a trading addict, painful for us hodlers.

I'm also expecting a lot of press exposure - some of it negative - "New anonymous coin empowers dealers, thieves and terrorists". 

the ones who have bought their coins already are not your average future xmr users. There will be other waves.
knowing most dealers in dnm are not the most stupid ones, i would assume them to hold most of their future cash in xmr as it is not wise to hold it as cash bills at home (not to loose their accumulated cash in a raid for example) or even in btc (if you are paranoid enough - with xmr u need a view key to see the balances).
Volatility will be huge for end of the year and this year will be the make it or break it year of monero.
if it manages a 5-10% btc mc end of 2016 it will be a highly successful experiment. Even the current 1.09% btc mc is very good considering there is not much infra yet.

Yes all news is good news for monero. It was the same with bitcoin. The more we see mainstream media scaring citizens about this new infectious currency called monero, the more people will start using it. Free advertizement.

[kurious]

Storing XMR safely is NOT easy for 99% of computer users - and even a few hundred is now money you can lose sleep over.

Download https://github.com/jwinterm/LightWallet2/releases
Extract https://github.com/monero-project/bitmonero/releases in same folder

Launch Lightwallet, and done, easy...

Storing it is incredibly easy.

Accessing it is not as easy, but still easy if you spend 5 minutes to learn the CLI. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIRMM3F1jsE

I'm in my 50's with limited computer skills. I use the command line client. If one can read and follow instructions then is is as easy as driving a car. Still a lot of people driving cars without reading their manual and can't figure out how to do certain things. Not the car's fault just like it is not XMR's fault.

I have learned it, thank you - I just think a GUI is way easier for a 'normal' person to use.  It's not FUD, nor nonsense, and it took me a fair bit longer than five minutes as a Mac user to learn to use CLI.

[obit33]

breaking out? 

[cAPSLOCK]

breaking out? 

Too soon to say

[CTTE]

Would this be based on some sort of news?