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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 2070145 times)
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elrippo
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SPENDENAUFRUF in meiner Signatur --> DANKE!!!


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September 01, 2016, 04:42:51 PM
 #21201

I did a little research, because mostly this price surge is argumented with DNM's getting in the currency, which i still do not believe.

On Alphabay in median 1,9% 2737 are accepting XMR in drugs and chemicals from total 136877.
On Oasis in median 6,9% 264 are accepting XMR in drugs and chemicals from total 3813.

The last 0,018 hype on polo had over 100kBTC volume, with now residing somewhere at 0,014 with ~24kBTC volume.

So if 3001 vendors are responsible for over 100kBTC volume, every vendor in median had to have ~33BTC for playing wiht XMR, now somewhat around ~8BTC each if every vendor is actively trading --> possible but not likely.

Why, simply because these 100BTC to 800BTC buy walls would to have been built, in median, buy more than one vendor at the same time --> possible but not likely.

Even if, let's say 10% of the active vendors are actively trading with the new XMR (multiply the figures buy 10) which i still do not believe, this would be more unlikely to happen at the same time on the same place. The lending figures intensify my claim and theory of a single entity playing around and making the market to the contrary argument of "natural" growth  Roll Eyes

Think about it  Shocked

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DaveJones
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Don't Trade With Caution


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September 01, 2016, 04:45:57 PM
 #21202

Actually this is quite relevant as well since it was put originally quite close to the spot (I've followed this). On the other hand, the wall guy or girl is playing games with us. He first sets walls and the bids are increased to around 7 000 btc, then suddenly pulls off 1000 btc from buy orders. I am not quite sure what he is trying to do...

I think whoever it is is trying to make a big buy-in without massive upward slippage. So they put the wall there periodically enticing someone to move coins to the exchange and dump, and remove it to avoid pushing the price up.

It's probably a large Bitcoin whale who wants to reallocate/hedge in a big way onto a different chain/project. Someone on the level of Roger Ver, or possibly literallly him (but probably not).


But the volume is huge. If you wanted to buy 7,000 BTC worth of Monero, why not just have a bot do it? If you do it correctly you won't get crazy slippage and you can start the next move up.
That said, I do hope you are right.

From one of my favorites,

And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level, which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine -- that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money.


...But to me it doesn't matter. I think Monero is still severely undervalued.


I thought I was doing well out of Monero a few months ago. called the market just about right. Then I made the big mistake of selling too many thinking it would go lower and I could buy back twice as many, only to find it went higher, and higher, and higher.

I did jump back in, but them words are true enough: buy and hodl.
Whtwabbit
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September 01, 2016, 04:59:36 PM
 #21203

Actually this is quite relevant as well since it was put originally quite close to the spot (I've followed this). On the other hand, the wall guy or girl is playing games with us. He first sets walls and the bids are increased to around 7 000 btc, then suddenly pulls off 1000 btc from buy orders. I am not quite sure what he is trying to do...

I think whoever it is is trying to make a big buy-in without massive upward slippage. So they put the wall there periodically enticing someone to move coins to the exchange and dump, and remove it to avoid pushing the price up.

It's probably a large Bitcoin whale who wants to reallocate/hedge in a big way onto a different chain/project. Someone on the level of Roger Ver, or possibly literallly him (but probably not).


But the volume is huge. If you wanted to buy 7,000 BTC worth of Monero, why not just have a bot do it? If you do it correctly you won't get crazy slippage and you can start the next move up.
That said, I do hope you are right.

From one of my favorites,

And right here let me say one thing: After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level, which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine -- that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money.


...But to me it doesn't matter. I think Monero is still severely undervalued.


I thought I was doing well out of Monero a few months ago. called the market just about right. Then I made the big mistake of selling too many thinking it would go lower and I could buy back twice as many, only to find it went higher, and higher, and higher.

I did jump back in, but them words are true enough: buy and hodl.

And definitely don't buy "bitcoin securities"

“It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.” Mark Twain
TrueCryptonaire
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September 01, 2016, 05:19:12 PM
 #21204

I did a little research, because mostly this price surge is argumented with DNM's getting in the currency, which i still do not believe.

On Alphabay in median 1,9% 2737 are accepting XMR in drugs and chemicals from total 136877.
On Oasis in median 6,9% 264 are accepting XMR in drugs and chemicals from total 3813.

The last 0,018 hype on polo had over 100kBTC volume, with now residing somewhere at 0,014 with ~24kBTC volume.

So if 3001 vendors are responsible for over 100kBTC volume, every vendor in median had to have ~33BTC for playing wiht XMR, now somewhat around ~8BTC each if every vendor is actively trading --> possible but not likely.

Why, simply because these 100BTC to 800BTC buy walls would to have been built, in median, buy more than one vendor at the same time --> possible but not likely.

Even if, let's say 10% of the active vendors are actively trading with the new XMR (multiply the figures buy 10) which i still do not believe, this would be more unlikely to happen at the same time on the same place. The lending figures intensify my claim and theory of a single entity playing around and making the market to the contrary argument of "natural" growth  Roll Eyes

Think about it  Shocked

It is pretty obvious to everybody the hype we had 1 week ago was due to speculators or "market makers" (depending on which term you prefer).
However, the fact is vendors are now using XMR which creates natural demand which will eventually have a positive impact on the price. I am not expecting that by 23.59 1st of sept all the vendors are 100 % in xmr. That is delusional IMO. Let's give some time, few months, a couple years perhaps and see how high it ends up.

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Globb0
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I love you too


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September 01, 2016, 05:26:45 PM
 #21205

I like to run a tor exit node on the same LAN, and connect to a VPN from that IP, without going through tor, then connect to tor through a VPN in an other country, which I paid for with Monero via XMR.to, and has a canary.

It is also easy to find Netgear routers with exploits and bounce off of a couple of those.  It's actually hard to see a downside to that. You can patch the vulnerability for them when you are done, to pay for it, if you like.  The main risk is that one might be a honeypot.


I bounced something off of my router but it went down the back of the bookcase. I guess it is more secure down there  Grin

Oink
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September 01, 2016, 05:33:31 PM
 #21206

I like to run a tor exit node on the same LAN, and connect to a VPN from that IP, without going through tor, then connect to tor through a VPN in an other country, which I paid for with Monero via XMR.to, and has a canary.

It is also easy to find Netgear routers with exploits and bounce off of a couple of those.  It's actually hard to see a downside to that. You can patch the vulnerability for them when you are done, to pay for it, if you like.  The main risk is that one might be a honeypot.


I bounced something off of my router but it went down the back of the bookcase. I guess it is more secure down there  Grin
Cold storage.   Cheesy
dEBRUYNE
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September 01, 2016, 06:31:37 PM
 #21207

XMR/BTC & XMR/USD is available for trading on Livecoin:

https://www.livecoin.net/en/news/view/151

Privacy matters, use Monero - A true untraceable cryptocurrency
Why Monero matters? http://weuse.cash/2016/03/05/bitcoiners-hedge-your-position/
DaveyJones
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September 01, 2016, 06:36:09 PM
 #21208


I thought I was doing well out of Monero a few months ago. called the market just about right. Then I made the big mistake of selling too many thinking it would go lower and I could buy back twice as many, only to find it went higher, and higher, and higher.

I did jump back in, but them words are true enough: buy and hodl.

You should have listened to me :p

Drhiggins
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September 01, 2016, 06:46:57 PM
 #21209

XMR/BTC & XMR/USD is available for trading on Livecoin:

https://www.livecoin.net/en/news/view/151


Finally! First USD/XMR pairing I've seen on an exchange.  But nice for sure.  Will be checking out.

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TrueCryptonaire
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September 01, 2016, 07:15:03 PM
 #21210

1 week chart for 30 min candles. Looks like we will see a break up or break down. Seems like the tension around Monero is intensifying on weekends.

The chart doesn't look clearly bullish nor bearish. The bearish part is that it looks it is making lower highs but also the bottoms are higher which is bullish..

Therefore, in the short run I do not know. In the long run I tend to think it is bullish.

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September 01, 2016, 07:16:01 PM
 #21211

1 week chart for 30 min candles. Looks like we will see a break up or break down. Seems like the tension around Monero is intensifying on weekends.


I've noticed that pattern too as of late.  Would love to see a 25% or more gain over this weekend  Grin

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opennux
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September 01, 2016, 07:28:23 PM
 #21212

I did a little research, because mostly this price surge is argumented with DNM's getting in the currency, which i still do not believe.

On Alphabay in median 1,9% 2737 are accepting XMR in drugs and chemicals from total 136877.
On Oasis in median 6,9% 264 are accepting XMR in drugs and chemicals from total 3813.

The last 0,018 hype on polo had over 100kBTC volume, with now residing somewhere at 0,014 with ~24kBTC volume.

So if 3001 vendors are responsible for over 100kBTC volume, every vendor in median had to have ~33BTC for playing wiht XMR, now somewhat around ~8BTC each if every vendor is actively trading --> possible but not likely.

Why, simply because these 100BTC to 800BTC buy walls would to have been built, in median, buy more than one vendor at the same time --> possible but not likely.

Even if, let's say 10% of the active vendors are actively trading with the new XMR (multiply the figures buy 10) which i still do not believe, this would be more unlikely to happen at the same time on the same place. The lending figures intensify my claim and theory of a single entity playing around and making the market to the contrary argument of "natural" growth  Roll Eyes

Think about it  Shocked

That is completely disingenuous. Going from 0 to those numbers do absolutely mean something. I appreciate some statistics, but you gotta be less disingenuous in the way you handle the data. 2737 are accepting XMR. That is an increase of 2737! How many of the 136877 are active, or have been active within the last months? At the same time you ascribe ALL the volume to vendors trading. Dude. Come on.. Most if not all people in this thread are either speculators, holders, spectators or somewhere in between and have no connection to those DNM. We know with certainty that many in here are responsible for some of the volume.
That's not to say there's no big traders and attempt at manipulation happening, but come on..
rpietila
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September 01, 2016, 07:29:11 PM
 #21213


HM rpietila II Dei Gratia Rex Regnum Crypto, Dux Antiqua Ducatus et alii ad inf.

Let it be known that because of his persistent market commentary during the time when We have been absent,

TrueCryptonaire

has become a top-rated commenter in this thread, and also that the quality of the said comments has increased markedly,

WE, (etc)

have bestowed our favor on him,

and he is therefore invited to Our presence in Our castle, at any time mutually agreed, forthcoming in this autumn,

or

to the Monero Summit and Conference, planned to be organised before the years' end.

Seal.

phishead
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Keep what's important, and know who's your friend


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September 01, 2016, 08:03:50 PM
 #21214

--snip--

HM rpietila II Dei Gratia Rex Regnum Crypto, Dux Antiqua Ducatus et alii ad inf.

Let it be known that because of his persistent market commentary during the time when We have been absent,

TrueCryptonaire

has become a top-rated commenter in this thread, and also that the quality of the said comments has increased markedly,

WE, (etc)

have bestowed our favor on him,

and he is therefore invited to Our presence in Our castle, in any time mutually agreed, forthcoming in this autumn,

or

to the Monero Summit and Conference, planned to be organised before the years' end.

Seal.
Hahaha, oh god... As if TC's ego isn't already big enough.

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September 01, 2016, 08:04:59 PM
 #21215

Congrats TrueCryptonaire!  Wink


and he is therefore invited to Our presence in Our castle, in any time mutually agreed, forthcoming in this autumn,

or

to the Monero Summit and Conference, planned to be organised before the years' end.

Seal.


I wanna come to the Monero Summit and Conference!  Shocked   Smiley
luigi1111
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September 01, 2016, 08:07:47 PM
 #21216

I did a little research, because mostly this price surge is argumented with DNM's getting in the currency, which i still do not believe.

On Alphabay in median 1,9% 2737 are accepting XMR in drugs and chemicals from total 136877.
On Oasis in median 6,9% 264 are accepting XMR in drugs and chemicals from total 3813.

The last 0,018 hype on polo had over 100kBTC volume, with now residing somewhere at 0,014 with ~24kBTC volume.

So if 3001 vendors are responsible for over 100kBTC volume, every vendor in median had to have ~33BTC for playing wiht XMR, now somewhat around ~8BTC each if every vendor is actively trading --> possible but not likely.

Why, simply because these 100BTC to 800BTC buy walls would to have been built, in median, buy more than one vendor at the same time --> possible but not likely.

Even if, let's say 10% of the active vendors are actively trading with the new XMR (multiply the figures buy 10) which i still do not believe, this would be more unlikely to happen at the same time on the same place. The lending figures intensify my claim and theory of a single entity playing around and making the market to the contrary argument of "natural" growth  Roll Eyes

Think about it  Shocked

You are still not getting it (several others have replied as well): we most all agree this is speculation due to the DNM news. Obviously it has not (yet) seen any "real", "natural" use from that (or at least hadn't when the price started its crazy climb).


Now, considering that, this claim:

Quote
The lending figures intensify my claim and theory of a single entity playing around and making the market to the contrary argument of "natural" growth

is still absurd.

rpietila
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September 01, 2016, 08:20:27 PM
 #21217

I wanna come to the Monero Summit and Conference!  Shocked   Smiley

Let's have it then.

My place is (in winter configuration - summer is much bigger) a small conference center with 28 beds. I live here, and to have a summit we only need to agree on the dates and there is a cost of lodging of course. After nearly a dozen conferences (including 6 in this place) attended by several people who have "at one time held 5% of the existing Bitcoins", I believe I can handle the practicalities with grace.

The price for a few days, all included, would be about 100 XMR. Organiser lead time about 3 weeks.

coinism
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September 01, 2016, 08:50:03 PM
 #21218

I wanna come to the Monero Summit and Conference!  Shocked   Smiley

Let's have it then.

My place is (in winter configuration - summer is much bigger) a small conference center with 28 beds. I live here, and to have a summit we only need to agree on the dates and there is a cost of lodging of course. After nearly a dozen conferences (including 6 in this place) attended by several people who have "at one time held 5% of the existing Bitcoins", I believe I can handle the practicalities with grace.

The price for a few days, all included, would be about 100 XMR. Organiser lead time about 3 weeks.


i wonder how many of those 5% people are into xmr. HH perhaps knows the answer to that Smiley

"and i base my assumptions on absolutely nothing"
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September 01, 2016, 09:04:49 PM
 #21219

I wanna come to the Monero Summit and Conference!  Shocked   Smiley

Let's have it then.

My place is (in winter configuration - summer is much bigger) a small conference center with 28 beds. I live here, and to have a summit we only need to agree on the dates and there is a cost of lodging of course. After nearly a dozen conferences (including 6 in this place) attended by several people who have "at one time held 5% of the existing Bitcoins", I believe I can handle the practicalities with grace.

The price for a few days, all included, would be about 100 XMR. Organiser lead time about 3 weeks.


Sounds good, hopefully 100 XMR won't be worth a fortune by then... actually, I hope it will  Smiley

Let me know dates and I'll be there


i wonder how many of those 5% people are into xmr. HH perhaps knows the answer to that Smiley


Well, you have me and rpietila in this thread alone.. Wink
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September 01, 2016, 09:06:10 PM
 #21220

i wonder how many of those 5% people are into xmr. HH perhaps knows the answer to that Smiley

One is from the beginning, the other 2 there is no reliable info.

EDIT: and don't you f-n think that I am any one of them..  Undecided

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