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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3237816 times)
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Its About Sharing
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September 01, 2016, 07:40:44 AM
 #20961

Actually this is quite relevant as well since it was put originally quite close to the spot (I've followed this). On the other hand, the wall guy or girl is playing games with us. He first sets walls and the bids are increased to around 7 000 btc, then suddenly pulls off 1000 btc from buy orders. I am not quite sure what he is trying to do...

I think whoever it is is trying to make a big buy-in without massive upward slippage. So they put the wall there periodically enticing someone to move coins to the exchange and dump, and remove it to avoid pushing the price up.

It's probably a large Bitcoin whale who wants to reallocate/hedge in a big way onto a different chain/project. Someone on the level of Roger Ver, or possibly literallly him (but probably not).


But the volume is huge. If you wanted to buy 7,000 BTC worth of Monero, why not just have a bot do it? If you do it correctly you won't get crazy slippage and you can start the next move up.
That said, I do hope you are right.

One way to look at this scenario, a person with a large ask wall may pull it if a counterparty gives away his/her intention to accumulate with slow nibbles and move their asks higher surmising he/she could fetch a better price, increasing the accumulator's cost

another thought, a person employing a trading bot is probably not working with insignificant amounts of capital

Hey bro! Nice quote before. I remember that book from a loooong time ago.

Above makes a bit of sense. I always chalked it up to people just flexing muscles and messing with others heads, but it makes some sense what you say.
Rarely have I seen those flash offers get filled, buy or sell, though sometimes. Always seemed funny when the sell walls were bought into that had been being pulled.
Anyway, time will tell.

XMR looks to be in a large semi-asymetrical triangle on the 4 hour chart. And if you zoom out to daily, seems to clearly b a large P Formation (as MondoBitcoin used to say - What happened to that guys videos?). Dare I say, we are going to know here soon, which way she goes. I'm betting on up just due to the numbers/history of these types of formations. Here comes the weekend...

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BTC = Antifragile - "Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and love adventure, risk, and uncertainty. Robust is not the opposite of fragile.
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September 01, 2016, 07:48:54 AM
 #20962

I checked Alphabay and it seems 25% merchants are accepting Monero, thought it would be more. Of course I see that changing in the course of these upcoming weeks.


That is huge.  Now if this sellers will sell faster they will start selling only in XMR if they will sell slower will switch back into BTC.

25% is really unexpectedly a lot.

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September 01, 2016, 07:49:36 AM
 #20963

The four hour looks like a pennant forming to me.

But it could equally be a dinosaur Wink

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September 01, 2016, 09:19:00 AM
 #20964

What about the problem of some people about the "view key" feature. They said that a court order could make you show your transactions in the clear thru view key. Is this true? Why is that feature even there? It might become Monero's weakness.

If you have information, you can be compelled to reveal it by only and exactly that force which is able to compel such performance.  I fail to see in what sense the view key mechanism is a problem in such a scenario. The problem, in any such a case, is not the view key, but the fact that you retained the information.  If you wish to preclude being forced to reveal information, you must destroy it.


Give a man a fish and he eats for a day.  Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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September 01, 2016, 09:48:48 AM
 #20965

From what I can see, around 5% of all Alphabay listings can now be paid in XMR.
This could increase exponentially but I can see in the subreddits that many people don't know why they should use XMR instead of BTC.
Vendors are experimenting by accepting XMR on few of their listings, they will accept XMR on all of their listings if there is enough interest. Overall, very interesting.
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September 01, 2016, 10:03:43 AM
 #20966

What about the problem of some people about the "view key" feature. They said that a court order could make you show your transactions in the clear thru view key. Is this true? Why is that feature even there? It might become Monero's weakness.

If you have information, you can be compelled to reveal it by only and exactly that force which is able to compel such performance.  I fail to see in what sense the view key mechanism is a problem in such a scenario. The problem, in any such a case, is not the view key, but the fact that you retained the information.  If you wish to preclude being forced to reveal information, you must destroy it.




I guess courts can not demand only your view key but also can check inside wallet if they want to. View keys can provide to see without actually open the wallet.

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September 01, 2016, 10:19:31 AM
 #20967

I have a hunch that they will release the gui wallet sometime before Monero trading on AlphaBay begins on Sept 1.

Soon..

Well that might be icing on the cake as far as price rise.  Looking forward to the GUI myself.

Not happening before Sep 1.  I will ride the NYC subway naked if the GUI is released before Sept 1st

LOL quoted for posterity.

Although there has been lots of activity on the Monero GitHub with many new contributors, the GUI has not been released.  It's even Sept 1 in Hawaii.  Thanks for being here smoothie Smiley
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September 01, 2016, 11:29:01 AM
 #20968

What about the problem of some people about the "view key" feature. They said that a court order could make you show your transactions in the clear thru view key. Is this true? Why is that feature even there? It might become Monero's weakness.

If you have information, you can be compelled to reveal it by only and exactly that force which is able to compel such performance.  I fail to see in what sense the view key mechanism is a problem in such a scenario. The problem, in any such a case, is not the view key, but the fact that you retained the information.  If you wish to preclude being forced to reveal information, you must destroy it.



Yes that would be the most practical thing to do. I am only curious why there is a view key mechanism and what was the reason why the developers added it as a feature. I am sure there are pros and cons.

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September 01, 2016, 12:47:02 PM
 #20969

What about the problem of some people about the "view key" feature. They said that a court order could make you show your transactions in the clear thru view key. Is this true? Why is that feature even there? It might become Monero's weakness.

If you have information, you can be compelled to reveal it by only and exactly that force which is able to compel such performance.  I fail to see in what sense the view key mechanism is a problem in such a scenario. The problem, in any such a case, is not the view key, but the fact that you retained the information.  If you wish to preclude being forced to reveal information, you must destroy it.


Forcing somebody to support official investigation agains himself is against human rights and does not happen in constitutional democracies. If it does in a nation, that nation defaces itself as being hostile to human rights.
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September 01, 2016, 01:03:07 PM
 #20970

By pure curiosity I had a look on a DNM on Tor, and I really quickly saw :

"Im offering 10% extra on orders if you will pay me with Monero"

Interesting...

EDIT : sorry, I wanted to write this in normal Monero thread, no speculation, error...
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September 01, 2016, 01:17:22 PM
 #20971

What about the problem of some people about the "view key" feature. They said that a court order could make you show your transactions in the clear thru view key. Is this true? Why is that feature even there? It might become Monero's weakness.

If you have information, you can be compelled to reveal it by only and exactly that force which is able to compel such performance.  I fail to see in what sense the view key mechanism is a problem in such a scenario. The problem, in any such a case, is not the view key, but the fact that you retained the information.  If you wish to preclude being forced to reveal information, you must destroy it.




I guess courts can not demand only your view key but also can check inside wallet if they want to. View keys can provide to see without actually open the wallet.

Seems to me you could apply the 5th Amendment here in the U.S. for a view key request.  But to be sure you should consult with your attorney.

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September 01, 2016, 01:26:38 PM
 #20972

As usual, XMR was dumped last night. However, it never dropped below .014, which is encouraging.
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September 01, 2016, 01:30:35 PM
 #20973

By pure curiosity I had a look on a DNM on Tor, and I really quickly saw :

"Im offering 10% extra on orders if you will pay me with Monero"

Interesting...

EDIT : sorry, I wanted to write this in normal Monero thread, no speculation, error...

I took a look (strictly a look - shout out to the LE reading this thread) too - best offer I saw was 20% extra for using Monero. I would expect smaller vendors trying to build market share to use Monero offers as a marketing tool to attract new customers which will in turn force larger sellers into accepting Monero so as to not lose market share. Economics is beautiful.
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September 01, 2016, 01:35:53 PM
 #20974

What about the problem of some people about the "view key" feature. They said that a court order could make you show your transactions in the clear thru view key. Is this true? Why is that feature even there? It might become Monero's weakness.

If you have information, you can be compelled to reveal it by only and exactly that force which is able to compel such performance.  I fail to see in what sense the view key mechanism is a problem in such a scenario. The problem, in any such a case, is not the view key, but the fact that you retained the information.  If you wish to preclude being forced to reveal information, you must destroy it.




I guess courts can not demand only your view key but also can check inside wallet if they want to. View keys can provide to see without actually open the wallet.

Seems to me you could apply the 5th Amendment here in the U.S. for a view key request.  But to be sure you should consult with your attorney.

Yes i think you are right. Even your wife has rights not to do this as your close relative or something. Well this is more a question for those that study laws. I have little knowledge of that. Only thing i know is that as much lawyers you have that many different explanations will one law have. Tongue

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infofront
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September 01, 2016, 01:52:12 PM
 #20975

It's odd. As soon as XMR started plummeting, several guys appeared in the polo trollbox and, almost in unison, began hyping BCN and bashing XMR.
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September 01, 2016, 01:54:32 PM
 #20976

It's odd. As soon as XMR started plummeting, several guys appeared in the polo trollbox and, almost in unison, began hyping BCN and bashing XMR.

Is not that is why Toolbox is for?  But BCN, please.

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September 01, 2016, 02:09:25 PM
 #20977

Almost know coins available for shorting right now, would be an amazing time for a squeeze . . .
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September 01, 2016, 02:27:50 PM
 #20978

Almost know coins available for shorting right now, would be an amazing time for a squeeze . . .

Was just noticing this... I'm sure a trader with enough dry powder has noticed as well..

Even if we are moving lower in the near term I'm looking for a squeeze in the immediate term.

Sooner rather than later, these loan rates on leveraged long are ridiculous Wink
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September 01, 2016, 02:48:50 PM
 #20979

It is funny to read how many guys hope XMR price will go down and also the usual trollbox-spam which one can`t take serious fully.

Taken the current use and coming demand for XMR, technological development (GUI, Kovri, Ring CT), massive media exposure and community growth...why honestly should anybody sell it now?
In order to do what, to buy it for 7 USD? Or 6 USD? How realistic is it that a coin with such potential like XMR is sold under 8 USD? It`s a joke. Everybody wants it. Thats fine, they can, but not for cheap.

Roger Ver is substantially invested in XMR. I guess his connections can mean a lot (Bloomberg Interview with him). It is simply great to have such one Bitcoin evangelist and investor on board of Monero.
Ver says he sees the Monero price around 50 to 100 USD in the months to come. The guys begging one to sell are seeing this too I guess.  Grin
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September 01, 2016, 04:42:51 PM
 #20980

I did a little research, because mostly this price surge is argumented with DNM's getting in the currency, which i still do not believe.

On Alphabay in median 1,9% 2737 are accepting XMR in drugs and chemicals from total 136877.
On Oasis in median 6,9% 264 are accepting XMR in drugs and chemicals from total 3813.

The last 0,018 hype on polo had over 100kBTC volume, with now residing somewhere at 0,014 with ~24kBTC volume.

So if 3001 vendors are responsible for over 100kBTC volume, every vendor in median had to have ~33BTC for playing wiht XMR, now somewhat around ~8BTC each if every vendor is actively trading --> possible but not likely.

Why, simply because these 100BTC to 800BTC buy walls would to have been built, in median, buy more than one vendor at the same time --> possible but not likely.

Even if, let's say 10% of the active vendors are actively trading with the new XMR (multiply the figures buy 10) which i still do not believe, this would be more unlikely to happen at the same time on the same place. The lending figures intensify my claim and theory of a single entity playing around and making the market to the contrary argument of "natural" growth  Roll Eyes

Think about it  Shocked

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