[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smooth]

Bitcoin is not going anywhere man. In terms of network effect ...see below...  it trumps all other alts

Yes

...from above... and security

I dispute this, or at least dispute the magnitude of leadership at a minimum (it may still be more secure than any alt, but it just very hard to assess). Highly centralized mining isn't all that secure. Hash rate (i.e. energy burn) doesn't tell the whole story.

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[Globb0]

Quantum computing is marching on too. Its all technology based so some truly significant change in technology standards could definitely also have an unknown effect.

[explorer]

About miners dumping.  The current daily emission is a bit over 7700/day.  Almost every 15 min candle is way above that.  During this last dump there was a 15min red candle of just under 200K and during the rise before it there were 2 green candles of >200K.  Ofc having a higher % of mined coins being sold quickly will have some affect but I just don't think it's all that much.  The other way to look at it is how many new coins/day does the market want?  Does the addition of maybe 2K/day to be sold make much of a difference in the market now?

I started mining again with my super computer about 6 weeks ago because I smelled something in the air.  At 35H/s I currently own 0.0001% of the network HR and have accrued 0.3 Monero.  Doesn't sound like much but with this I have doubled my holdings.

That's nothing on my mining operation.  I'm pulling a steady 8 H/s, with sometimes spikes up into the teens!  So far it hasn't returned anything, and that's after months and months.  I think it's just too powerful, and the blocks I mine just vaporize or something.

Current network rate of 37.94 MH/s  OMFG.  its about time.

[aminorex]

You must factor in that some of the larger BTC Whales are XMR Whales too.

And for those who are not, the hour is getting late.  Soon it will not be possible to become a Monero whale.  The club doors are already beginning to swing shut.

Whats a whale to aminorex? In the long term not just today.

If you want to enter or leave the liquidity pool with more than 5% of the daily churn, you're going to make a whale-sized wave of one sort or another.   In BTC today that is ~10k. So, in the 2-3 year span beyond which I do not like to make quantitative predictions, that would seem a good benchmark for the Monero whale.  I don't think XMRBTC parity will happen by then, but close-ish, maybe half.  And the crypto market volume will be roughly evenly divided.

Who might reasonably want to move $5mm in a single day?  Someone buying a nice retirement villa, or investing in private equity -- or a company funding off-shore operations or making a capital equipment purchase.  Probably no less than 20mm usd net worth...more like 100mm.

[aminorex]

Joe Six-Pack

Joe does not set the price. This is not a unit-per-head market like iPhones.  The LBMA sets the price of gold, not Indian wedding planners.  The bulk transactors, the whales, will determine the price of Monero... up until the point where it has a local currency monopoly, dominant reserve status, and the standard of accounting.  Inside of a local currency monopoly, the size of the economy and the money supply will determine the value.  Joe just eats what is put in front of him.

[aminorex]

... with this I have doubled my holdings.

Just keep doubling.

[BldSwtTrs]

I've seen a handful of people mentioning the possibility of XMR overtaking BTC. Is this just XMR fever talking, or is there some rational basis for this argument?

I see the odds of XMR overtaking BTC being close to nil. That said, I believe there's a high probability it could be a strong 2nd, overtaking LTC as BTC's "silver".

Either XMR fails catastrophically, or it surpasses BTC by a large margin: The use-cases and scalability of XMR cover a much wider range than BTC; most actors suffer for having their private financial details published indiscriminately.

It is only the limitations of bounded rationality and human linear thinking which assign intermediate outcomes the bulk of the probability mass.  The underlying fundamentals push the actual mass out to the tails.

Aminorex thank you for your inputs, they are very valuable, I always consider with attention what you say.

Regarding the possibility XMR can surpass BTC, don't you think the superior network effect (security, marketability, brand recognition) of BTC will prevent that? It's not always the best which wins.

Also isn't monero scability worse than BTC (ie. more data per transaction to process)? (I know Monero has an adaptative blocksize but that doesn't solve the centralization of nodes problem).

[Anon136]

I've seen a handful of people mentioning the possibility of XMR overtaking BTC. Is this just XMR fever talking, or is there some rational basis for this argument?

I see the odds of XMR overtaking BTC being close to nil. That said, I believe there's a high probability it could be a strong 2nd, overtaking LTC as BTC's "silver".

I'm certainly not going to say it will. But I will say there is a rational reason to expect that it might.

Bitcoin was supposed to be digital e-cash. Cash has to be fungible. So bitcoin has failed to meet that expectation. It is a digital asset. It is not digital cash. Monero is the best fungible digital e-cash contender out there right now. The day people start to worry about whether the funds they are being paid in are tainted. The day they start start to feel that sense of creeping dread that maybe that 20 grand they just accepted as payment for their car could be worthless. That is the day they switch to XMR in mass. Unless bitcoin manages to overcome the politics that are burdening it and find a solution to this problem. Which it might.

[smooth]

I've seen a handful of people mentioning the possibility of XMR overtaking BTC. Is this just XMR fever talking, or is there some rational basis for this argument?

I see the odds of XMR overtaking BTC being close to nil. That said, I believe there's a high probability it could be a strong 2nd, overtaking LTC as BTC's "silver".

I'm certainly not going to say it will. But I will say there is a rational reason to expect that it might.

Bitcoin was supposed to be digital e-cash. Cash has to be fungible. Monero is the best fungible digital e-cash contender out there right now. The day people start to worry about whether the funds they are being paid in are tainted. They start to feel that sense of creeping dread that maybe that 20 grand they just accepted as payment for their car could be worthless. That is the day they switch to XMR in mass. Unless bitcoin manages to overcome the politics that are burdening it and find a solution to this problem. Which they might.

Won't confidential transaction solve the problem of fungibility of bitcoins?

No unlinkability and untracability. It improves privacy at the individual transaction level if and when it is ever deployed, but coin histories, tracking, and taint remain.

To put it another way, Monero is adding CT to what we already have (with RingCT), we are not replacing what we already have with CT. That would be a step backward.

[Anon136]

I've seen a handful of people mentioning the possibility of XMR overtaking BTC. Is this just XMR fever talking, or is there some rational basis for this argument?

I see the odds of XMR overtaking BTC being close to nil. That said, I believe there's a high probability it could be a strong 2nd, overtaking LTC as BTC's "silver".

I'm certainly not going to say it will. But I will say there is a rational reason to expect that it might.

Bitcoin was supposed to be digital e-cash. Cash has to be fungible. Monero is the best fungible digital e-cash contender out there right now. The day people start to worry about whether the funds they are being paid in are tainted. They start to feel that sense of creeping dread that maybe that 20 grand they just accepted as payment for their car could be worthless. That is the day they switch to XMR in mass. Unless bitcoin manages to overcome the politics that are burdening it and find a solution to this problem. Which they might.

Won't confidential transaction solve the problem of fungibility of bitcoins?

Right now that proposal is for a soft fork and it is essentially a hack. Consequently confidential transactions will consume far too many resources to be practical. A hard fork could solve this. But then there's that politics I mentioned. A hard fork is extremely political when it comes to bitcoin.

*edit* also what smooth said. thanks smooth.

[smooth]

Hash rate closing in on 40 million.

[magico]

Hash rate closing in on 40 million.

So it's only CPU and GPU mining right now. How many months/years until ASICs?

[owlcatz]

Hash rate closing in on 40 million.

Astounding. Everyone switching from ETH to XMR?

Hash rate closing in on 40 million.

So it's only CPU and GPU mining right now. How many months/years until ASICs?

I always read it was "Asic-resistant", however IDK what that really means. I mean, couldn't someone develop an ASIC for cryptonote? Is anyone trying?

[CTTE]

Finally a decent 15 minute bar on polo! I've been waiting several hours for this, can't say it's a breakout but it's the first real 15 minute volume for quite awhile at 2346 btc.

Edit: actually 2 in a row... both Green and the second volume at 2538 btc! Nice start!

[magico]

Hash rate closing in on 40 million.

Astounding. Everyone switching from ETH to XMR?

It seems to be true. But we need couple or several days to proove it (IMO).

Hash rate closing in on 40 million.

So it's only CPU and GPU mining right now. How many months/years until ASICs?

I always read it was "Asic-resistant", however IDK what that really means. I mean, couldn't someone develop an ASIC for cryptonote? Is anyone trying?

If I recall correctly from old video (or audio) with Fluffypony it is possible to make an ASIC for CN. Please correct me if I wrong.

[nioc]

Hash rate closing in on 40 million.

So it's only CPU and GPU mining right now. How many months/years until ASICs?

I always read it was "Asic-resistant", however IDK what that really means. I mean, couldn't someone develop an ASIC for cryptonote? Is anyone trying?

If I recall correctly from old video (or audio) with Fluffypony it is possible to make an ASIC for CN. Please correct me if I wrong.

What it is is that ASICs don't have a big advantage over GPUs and GPUs don't have a big advantage over CPUs.  When the price gets high enough the small advantage might make it financially feasible to design and manufacture ASICs.  I certainly don't have the knowledge to analyze this.

[magico]

Hash rate closing in on 40 million.

So it's only CPU and GPU mining right now. How many months/years until ASICs?

I always read it was "Asic-resistant", however IDK what that really means. I mean, couldn't someone develop an ASIC for cryptonote? Is anyone trying?

If I recall correctly from old video (or audio) with Fluffypony it is possible to make an ASIC for CN. Please correct me if I wrong.

What it is is that ASICs don't have a big advantage over GPUs and GPUs don't have a big advantage over CPUs.  When the price gets high enough the small advantage might make it financially feasible to design and manufacture ASICs.  I certainly don't have the knowledge to analyze this.

Yes. But I think that ASIC will be a bit cheaper than GPU rig (as GPU rig slightly cheaper than CPU. I mean KH per $).

[owlcatz]

Hash rate closing in on 40 million.

So it's only CPU and GPU mining right now. How many months/years until ASICs?

I always read it was "Asic-resistant", however IDK what that really means. I mean, couldn't someone develop an ASIC for cryptonote? Is anyone trying?

If I recall correctly from old video (or audio) with Fluffypony it is possible to make an ASIC for CN. Please correct me if I wrong.

What it is is that ASICs don't have a big advantage over GPUs and GPUs don't have a big advantage over CPUs.  When the price gets high enough the small advantage might make it financially feasible to design and manufacture ASICs.  I certainly don't have the knowledge to analyze this.

Yes. But I think that ASIC will be a bit cheaper than GPU rig (as GPU rig slightly cheaper than CPU. I mean KH per $).

I would hope so. It's really expensive and probably a loss to even try and build a new GPU rig for cryptonote right now, right?

[magico]

Hash rate closing in on 40 million.

So it's only CPU and GPU mining right now. How many months/years until ASICs?

I always read it was "Asic-resistant", however IDK what that really means. I mean, couldn't someone develop an ASIC for cryptonote? Is anyone trying?

If I recall correctly from old video (or audio) with Fluffypony it is possible to make an ASIC for CN. Please correct me if I wrong.

What it is is that ASICs don't have a big advantage over GPUs and GPUs don't have a big advantage over CPUs.  When the price gets high enough the small advantage might make it financially feasible to design and manufacture ASICs.  I certainly don't have the knowledge to analyze this.

Yes. But I think that ASIC will be a bit cheaper than GPU rig (as GPU rig slightly cheaper than CPU. I mean KH per $).

I would hope so. It's really expensive and probably a loss to even try and build a new GPU rig for cryptonote right now, right?

Not really. I don't know how about now (my couple of rigs are from 2014) but rig profitability mostly depends on electricity costs.
Higher hashrate means higher difficulty means lower XMR profit but with high hashrate we gain high security and therefore higher XMR value. So only electricity cost matters.

[alphahacktivist]

I've seen a handful of people mentioning the possibility of XMR overtaking BTC. Is this just XMR fever talking, or is there some rational basis for this argument?

I see the odds of XMR overtaking BTC being close to nil. That said, I believe there's a high probability it could be a strong 2nd, overtaking LTC as BTC's "silver".

I generally agree with you. I have said from the beginning that it could be useful to have both a transparent blockchain and this sort of obscured blockchain running side-by-side. Yes there are ways that either coin could fill the shoes of the other but I don't think that is going to happen. I think Monero will be used primarily for wealth storage and private transactions and Bitcoin will be used primarily for transparent transactions and as an open blockchain. One difference between Monero and Litecoin though. Monero is not designed to be cheap. So I could see Moneros top price being a much greater fraction of bitcoin's price and litecoin could ever be. If I'm drunk enough I can even imagine scenarios in which  Monero is more valuable than Bitcoin per unit . In this case it wouldn't be Bitcoin silver  it would be Bitcoins Platinum. But as to it replacing Bitcoin? There's a lot of reasons that that seems silly to me.

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