[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Anon136]

Hash rate closing in on 40 million.

Astounding. Everyone switching from ETH to XMR?

Hash rate closing in on 40 million.

So it's only CPU and GPU mining right now. How many months/years until ASICs?

I always read it was "Asic-resistant", however IDK what that really means. I mean, couldn't someone develop an ASIC for cryptonote? Is anyone trying?

Of course. You cant resist that entirely. In a perfect world though (and i imagine an omniscient being could theoretically do this) you could design a hashing algorithm where a desktop pc WAS its asic. Of course we are mortals and no one can reverse engineer like that but cryptonight is an attempt to get as close to that as possible. A cryptonight asic would conspicuously resemble a consumer pc in many ways.

[Hueristic]

AES-NI is Intel®

[aminorex]

AES-NI is Intel®

Many AMD CPUs have AES-NI now, often faster than comparable Intel CPUs.

The main thing that makes it hard to do with an ASIC is irregularly accessing a relatively large amount of memory.  A large enough die at a fine enough process will eventually make it feasible to produce an ASIC with a scratchpad large enough for cryptonight.

By that time, quantum will be the bigger issue, methinks.

[Hueristic]

AES-NI is Intel®

Many AMD CPUs have AES-NI now, often faster than comparable Intel CPUs.

The main thing that makes it hard to do with an ASIC is irregularly accessing a relatively large amount of memory.  A large enough die at a fine enough process will eventually make it feasible to produce an ASIC with a scratchpad large enough for cryptonight.

By that time, quantum will be the bigger issue, methinks.

The copywrite is my point. that is a massive barrier to legal ASIC development.

[Trade_BTC]

Am I the only one who thinks buying a coin that is still 10x what it was 20 days ago is ludicrous? Apparently so by today's pump debacle.

[aminorex]

...don't you think the superior network effect (security, marketability, brand recognition) of BTC will prevent that? It's not always the best which wins.

Also isn't monero scability worse than BTC (ie. more data per transaction to process)? (I know Monero has an adaptative blocksize but that doesn't solve the centralization of nodes problem).

The larger transactions are a constant factor.  Constant factors disappear with hardware tech generations. The real scalability bottleneck in bitcoin is political.  Monero doesn't have that problem yet.

Bitcoin absolutely has a huge lead in social capital, and it remains to be seen that Monero can match it.  I think, however, that financial value and the promise of growth motivated the development of that capital.  Monero seems to have more upside potential now, which may cause a hyper-speed catch-up in social capital.  Time will tell.  I certainly can't put intervals around my guesses on that point right now, so they seem pretty worthless, predictively.

Another point: Old school bitcoin enthusiasts have been easy to sell on Monero from the start, and it is not so easy to ignore among the scamcoin hordes any longer, so I expect a lot of them to get on the bandwagon in the coming 6 months or so. They will bring their network and social capital with them.

[aminorex]

AES-NI is Intel®

Many AMD CPUs have AES-NI now, often faster than comparable Intel CPUs.

The main thing that makes it hard to do with an ASIC is irregularly accessing a relatively large amount of memory.  A large enough die at a fine enough process will eventually make it feasible to produce an ASIC with a scratchpad large enough for cryptonight.

By that time, quantum will be the bigger issue, methinks.

The copywrite is my point. that is a massive barrier to legal ASIC development.

No.  The math is not patentable, and no ASIC would use Intel IP for AES.  It would implement AES differently.

[aminorex]

Am I the only one who thinks buying a coin that is still 10x what it was 20 days ago is ludicrous? Apparently so by today's pump debacle.

It is ludicrous.  I am also buying here, but not very much.

[smooth]

Also isn't monero scability worse than BTC (ie. more data per transaction to process)? (I know Monero has an adaptative blocksize but that doesn't solve the centralization of nodes problem).

The difference is modest, now that people have adapted to using Monero efficiently (not sending payments with lots of unnecessary decimal places for example). Go look right now. Many real transactions using ring signatures (now required) on the live network are <1 KB. Some are larger of course. Median block size last 800 blocks 3500 bytes, average transactions per block 3.5. Average tx size after subtracting block headers is <1 KB.

The bigger increase in transactions size will come with the (pruneable) range proofs of RingCT. The same issue would affect BTC if it added CT and if not then achieving any kind of privacy (though not as good) requires engaging in mixing, chained coinjoins, etc. which reintroduce the size penalty in the form of more transactions.

There is no free lunch.

[owlcatz]

Am I the only one who thinks buying a coin that is still 10x what it was 20 days ago is ludicrous? Apparently so by today's pump debacle.

It is ludicrous.  I am also buying here, but not very much.

Same here, just bought .1 btc. long term fanatic. lol.

[nanobrain]

Am I the only one who thinks buying a coin that is still 10x what it was 20 days ago is ludicrous? Apparently so by today's pump debacle.

Buying opportunity for me.

[Hueristic]

AES-NI is Intel®

Many AMD CPUs have AES-NI now, often faster than comparable Intel CPUs.

The main thing that makes it hard to do with an ASIC is irregularly accessing a relatively large amount of memory.  A large enough die at a fine enough process will eventually make it feasible to produce an ASIC with a scratchpad large enough for cryptonight.

By that time, quantum will be the bigger issue, methinks.

The copywrite is my point. that is a massive barrier to legal ASIC development.

No.  The math is not patentable, and no ASIC would use Intel IP for AES.  It would implement AES differently.

AES-NI is the most efficient method of solving cryptonote, without it any ASIC will not perform well enough to make it practical. Thanks for letting me know math is not patentable, I was really worried for a moment.

[Trade_BTC]

Am I the only one who thinks buying a coin that is still 10x what it was 20 days ago is ludicrous? Apparently so by today's pump debacle.

It is ludicrous.  I am also buying here, but not very much.

Same here, just bought .1 btc. long term fanatic. lol.

Monero is nice but 0.01 is a bit more reasonable current price would be pure labor to maintain. Hopefully the fomo hype calms down a bit and the lambs don't get too slaughtered.

[nanobrain]

Am I the only one who thinks buying a coin that is still 10x what it was 20 days ago is ludicrous? Apparently so by today's pump debacle.

It is ludicrous.  I am also buying here, but not very much.

Same here, just bought .1 btc. long term fanatic. lol.

Monero is nice but 0.01 is a bit more reasonable current price would be pure labor to maintain. Hopefully the fomo hype calms down a bit and the lambs don't get too slaughtered.

FOMO hype hasn't really begun yet, announcements on XMR adoption coming through on a regular basis (beyond the DNMs), GUI wallet ("soon"), large investors have clearly moved in (larger ones to follow). [EDIT] I forgot: other exchanges, envious of polos massive XMR volume, will adopt XMR adding both availability and coverage.

Don't confuse this with some fly by night coin -- XMR has been around and done the hard yards (I first bought in two years back and suffered a few times).  It's all about perspective: you probably consider a $32 BTC very cheap but five years ago it was a "ludicrous" price.

[owlcatz]

Am I the only one who thinks buying a coin that is still 10x what it was 20 days ago is ludicrous? Apparently so by today's pump debacle.

It is ludicrous.  I am also buying here, but not very much.

Same here, just bought .1 btc. long term fanatic. lol.

Monero is nice but 0.01 is a bit more reasonable current price would be pure labor to maintain. Hopefully the fomo hype calms down a bit and the lambs don't get too slaughtered.

FOMO hype hasn't really begun yet, announcements on XMR adoption coming through on a regular basis (beyond the DNMs), GUI wallet ("soon"), large investors have clearly moved in (larger ones to follow).

Don't confuse this with some fly by night coin -- XMR has been around and done the hard yards (I first bought in two years back and suffered a few times).  It's all about perspective: you probably consider a $32 BTC very cheap but five years ago it was a "ludicrous" price.

THIS is why I will never sell my XMR for a long while! Well put mate!

[opennux]

This is the most bullish event since that other bullish event: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=583449.msg16147288#msg16147288

That's been for sale for ever. Someone bought it. 

[tifozi]

Another point: Old school bitcoin enthusiasts have been easy to sell on Monero from the start, and it is not so easy to ignore among the scamcoin hordes any longer, so I expect a lot of them to get on the bandwagon in the coming 6 months or so. They will bring their network and social capital with them.

^^That^^

It is a difficult paradigm shift for the masses still. There have been zero assets to compare with Monero, so it makes it that much more difficult. I got into BTC when I read the whitepaper, a membership and knowledge about this forum came much later unfortunately otherwise I would have been a bit more financially successful (rocket had left the station) and I was just left admiring the math.

When the CryptoNote whitepaper came out, I knew what was in store. I also pleaded with @thankful_for_today to make changes initially, both in forum and in IRC but that was one headstrong dude. I miss @tacotime's presence these days. We were both OPs in the initial IRC channel that we later surrendered to the current team. Good times.  

I bet the CN team are all pleased with the hard work and continued research publications that come out from the current team regardless of the external animosity at times. The cryptography is top notch math.

Even Ethereum has published a lot of good papers. But there is no way that a model of distribution like that will see long term success. It has to be meaningful blood and sweat with respect to mining and verification for it to make sense and it is going to take a while for everyone to get off that train. This is also a big short coming and narrow sightedness of zcash. Awesome math, bad model. They will be flipped for Bitcoins and that is where it will end. XMR is going to be the real wealth.

[Trade_BTC]

Another point: Old school bitcoin enthusiasts have been easy to sell on Monero from the start, and it is not so easy to ignore among the scamcoin hordes any longer, so I expect a lot of them to get on the bandwagon in the coming 6 months or so. They will bring their network and social capital with them.

^^That^^

It is a difficult paradigm shift for the masses still. There have been zero assets to compare with Monero, so it makes it that much more difficult. I got into BTC when I read the whitepaper, a membership and knowledge about this forum came much later unfortunately otherwise I would have been a bit more financially successful (rocket had left the station) and I was just left admiring the math.

When the CryptoNote whitepaper came out, I knew what was in store. I also pleaded with @thankful_for_today to make changes initially, both in forum and in IRC but that was one headstrong dude. I miss @tacotime's presence these days. We were both OPs in the initial IRC channel that we later surrendered to the current team. Good times.  

I bet the CN team are all pleased with the hard work and continued research publications that come out from the current team regardless of the external animosity at times. The cryptography is top notch math.

Even Ethereum has published a lot of good papers. But there is no way that a model of distribution like that will see long term success. It has to be meaningful blood and sweat with respect to mining and verification for it to make sense and it is going to take a while for everyone to get off that train. This is also a big short coming and narrow sightedness of zcash. Awesome math, bad model. They will be flipped for Bitcoins and that is where it will end. XMR is going to be the real wealth.

I agree with the fundamental of xmr but pumps like these in succession will not end up attracting users in the end.

[tifozi]

Another point: Old school bitcoin enthusiasts have been easy to sell on Monero from the start, and it is not so easy to ignore among the scamcoin hordes any longer, so I expect a lot of them to get on the bandwagon in the coming 6 months or so. They will bring their network and social capital with them.

^^That^^

It is a difficult paradigm shift for the masses still. There have been zero assets to compare with Monero, so it makes it that much more difficult. I got into BTC when I read the whitepaper, a membership and knowledge about this forum came much later unfortunately otherwise I would have been a bit more financially successful (rocket had left the station) and I was just left admiring the math.

When the CryptoNote whitepaper came out, I knew what was in store. I also pleaded with @thankful_for_today to make changes initially, both in forum and in IRC but that was one headstrong dude. I miss @tacotime's presence these days. We were both OPs in the initial IRC channel that we later surrendered to the current team. Good times.  

I bet the CN team are all pleased with the hard work and continued research publications that come out from the current team regardless of the external animosity at times. The cryptography is top notch math.

Even Ethereum has published a lot of good papers. But there is no way that a model of distribution like that will see long term success. It has to be meaningful blood and sweat with respect to mining and verification for it to make sense and it is going to take a while for everyone to get off that train. This is also a big short coming and narrow sightedness of zcash. Awesome math, bad model. They will be flipped for Bitcoins and that is where it will end. XMR is going to be the real wealth.

I agree with the fundamental of xmr but pumps like these in succession will not end up attracting users in the end.

I disagree. XMR at $30-$50 will see far more "investments" ( compared to the current prices) from the network we are talking about here. They won't see it at the moment, and won't let their network see it (scamcoiners that is). Currently the ones who are getting in know exactly what is going on and what is in store for the future. They are not going to make a splash about it. Roger Ver seems to be an exception to this, and I very much doubt his authenticity as well given that this is a potential conflict of interest. He may be genuinely diversifying but hard to say.

[nanobrain]

I agree with the fundamental of xmr but pumps like these in succession will not end up attracting users in the end.

We all bow to your experience.