[XMR] Monero Speculation

[rpietila]

How can you not care about the graphics??

You know dude I am on a party where a bottle of champagne costs $2000 and the Imperial lounge sets you back $250k (if full = 4 people). My lounge is worth about $100k and I just do not care about graphics I hope you understand. I care about my kids and wish that is happening soon.

[volyova]

How can you not care about the graphics??

You know dude I am on a party where a bottle of champagne costs $2000 and the Imperial lounge sets you back $250k (if full = 4 people). My lounge is worth about $100k and I just do not care about graphics I hope you understand. I care about my kids and wish that is happening soon.

So you're very rich, and you like people to know that. Ok, good to know. Anything else?

[johnalan]

Thank you for that.  It is usefully informative.  It would be even (and much) better with scale alignment.

To me it seems folly to analyze XMR denominated in BTC, although I was myself subject to this folly until recently.  The fundamentals are much more easily recognized using gold or any major fiat currency - I tend to use USD - as numeraire.

XMRUSD is pretty stable at $20, so in my (1% of XMR holdings) trading position, at present, I buy below 19 and sell above 21.  

You might recall that I anticipated recent levels on this approximate time scale last summer, by using Fisher's quantity theory, as calibrated by Alphabay volume estimators.  I have not done any further analysis yet, so I can't presently make any principled quantitative predictions.  As time permits and data allows I may do so soon.  My intuition is that $25 will become strong support by June.  The upside asymmetry is growing rapidly due to exogenous risk factors, but support levels should continue to be determined by economic use in dark net markets during the near future.  As they grow, so will XMR's utility value.

Meanwhile, some qualitative logic guides me, none of it new, and all of it supported by the evidence of the past few months, since my previous prediction:

1. Masternode (dash, pivx, crown) anonymity is (1) honeypot technology, and (2) a scheme for bleeding the economy to death by rents.  No such system can form a stable economy.  Any price runs are bubbles.  While shorting is supremely risky, and requires a strong and steady hand, I find it emotionally gratifying and financially lucrative.  I actually had a masternode for a while, but soon repented and sold it because I could not stomach making gains by deceit and oppression.  (I have made charitable donations in excess of those gains as a sop to my bruised conscience.)

2. Transparent blockchains expose their users to extortion and robbery.  Consequently they involve unwarranted risk, and can not persist in their moneyness.

3. App coins are generally a deceitful way to fund an Enterprise.  "Turing completeness" is ludicrous snake oil and there is still no compelling use for "gas", after years of waiting.  It is all dot-com hopium smoke.

4. I have long predicted the beginnings of the demise of the debt-based fiat currency system to become perceptible in 2017q4.  I will soon be proven either correct or incorrect, in the sense of being early, but even if my point-estimate proves over-eager, the underlying demographic deflationary implosion, resource exhaustion, systematic energy bleed, and exponential inflationary debt- (and inevitable supply-) explosion will reach a climax when the Boomer retirement peak arrives around 2024.  USD lost most of its value since 1971 (when Nixon broke the tie to gold).  It will lose an even larger proportion, and likely in fact ALL of it's value in excess of hard reserves times some yet-unmeasurable confidence*utility multiplier, on the 2024 time scale.  Crypto and hard assets are the place to be, and money is only beginning to realize this.  Those ahead of this curve will enjoy the fruits of their foresight during the next 7-10 years - if they can stay alive that long.

By a process of elimination I recommend to my friends and family an allocation of 20% xmr, 30% precious metals and/or cultural artifacts, 20% agricultural real estate (Chile being the top of my list), 10% long equities, 10% East Asia/Pacific bonds, and 10% strategic shorts (sovereign bonds, financial equities esp.) for long term money.  

The BTC fork will imply substantial volatility, yes, but that will end soon enough.  Underlying global systemic instabilities, however, will persist, compound, indeed explode, with much greater impact, albeit on a longer time-scale.  I think speculation time is rapidly coming to a close.  It is time for young and old, rich and poor alike to batten down the hatches and shelter from the coming multi-generational storm.  Given the extreme dislocations of financial metrics from the norms of millennia past which now prevail, this one may be the single greatest world-historical financial event since the Industrial Revolution, or the Black Death. There will be winners and losers.

what is your long term (5year+) XMR target price?

[Dotto]

Fantastic Aminorex post.

[Nausicaa]

http://tinyimg.io/i/Z2l6riM.jpg

Thank you for that.  It is usefully informative.  It would be even (and much) better with scale alignment.

To me it seems folly to analyze XMR denominated in BTC, although I was myself subject to this folly until recently.  The fundamentals are much more easily recognized using gold or any major fiat currency - I tend to use USD - as numeraire.

XMRUSD is pretty stable at $20, so in my (1% of XMR holdings) trading position, at present, I buy below 19 and sell above 21.  

You might recall that I anticipated recent levels on this approximate time scale last summer, by using Fisher's quantity theory, as calibrated by Alphabay volume estimators.  I have not done any further analysis yet, so I can't presently make any principled quantitative predictions.  As time permits and data allows I may do so soon.  My intuition is that $25 will become strong support by June.  The upside asymmetry is growing rapidly due to exogenous risk factors, but support levels should continue to be determined by economic use in dark net markets during the near future.  As they grow, so will XMR's utility value.

Meanwhile, some qualitative logic guides me, none of it new, and all of it supported by the evidence of the past few months, since my previous prediction:

1. Masternode (dash, pivx, crown) anonymity is (1) honeypot technology, and (2) a scheme for bleeding the economy to death by rents.  No such system can form a stable economy.  Any price runs are bubbles.  While shorting is supremely risky, and requires a strong and steady hand, I find it emotionally gratifying and financially lucrative.  I actually had a masternode for a while, but soon repented and sold it because I could not stomach making gains by deceit and oppression.  (I have made charitable donations in excess of those gains as a sop to my bruised conscience.)

2. Transparent blockchains expose their users to extortion and robbery.  Consequently they involve unwarranted risk, and can not persist in their moneyness.

3. App coins are generally a deceitful way to fund an Enterprise.  "Turing completeness" is ludicrous snake oil and there is still no compelling use for "gas", after years of waiting.  It is all dot-com hopium smoke.

4. I have long predicted the beginnings of the demise of the debt-based fiat currency system to become perceptible in 2017q4.  I will soon be proven either correct or incorrect, in the sense of being early, but even if my point-estimate proves over-eager, the underlying demographic deflationary implosion, resource exhaustion, systematic energy bleed, and exponential inflationary debt- (and inevitable supply-) explosion will reach a climax when the Boomer retirement peak arrives around 2024.  USD lost most of its value since 1971 (when Nixon broke the tie to gold).  It will lose an even larger proportion, and likely in fact ALL of it's value in excess of hard reserves times some yet-unmeasurable confidence*utility multiplier, on the 2024 time scale.  Crypto and hard assets are the place to be, and money is only beginning to realize this.  Those ahead of this curve will enjoy the fruits of their foresight during the next 7-10 years - if they can stay alive that long.

By a process of elimination I recommend to my friends and family an allocation of 20% xmr, 30% precious metals and/or cultural artifacts, 20% agricultural real estate (Chile being the top of my list), 10% long equities, 10% East Asia/Pacific bonds, and 10% strategic shorts (sovereign bonds, financial equities esp.) for long term money.  

The BTC fork will imply substantial volatility, yes, but that will end soon enough.  Underlying global systemic instabilities, however, will persist, compound, indeed explode, with much greater impact, albeit on a longer time-scale.  I think speculation time is rapidly coming to a close.  It is time for young and old, rich and poor alike to batten down the hatches and shelter from the coming multi-generational storm.  Given the extreme dislocations of financial metrics from the norms of millennia past which now prevail, this one may be the single greatest world-historical financial event since the Industrial Revolution, or the Black Death. There will be winners and losers.

All the CRAP I've had to wade through to figure out a sane crypto allocation. And it was all worth it to read this post. Thank you, Sir!

[iCEBREAKER]

By a process of elimination I recommend to my friends and family an allocation of 20% xmr, 30% precious metals and/or cultural artifacts, 20% agricultural real estate (Chile being the top of my list), 10% long equities, 10% East Asia/Pacific bonds, and 10% strategic shorts (sovereign bonds, financial equities esp.) for long term money.  

The BTC fork will imply substantial volatility, yes, but that will end soon enough.  Underlying global systemic instabilities, however, will persist, compound, indeed explode, with much greater impact, albeit on a longer time-scale.  I think speculation time is rapidly coming to a close.  It is time for young and old, rich and poor alike to batten down the hatches and shelter from the coming multi-generational storm.  Given the extreme dislocations of financial metrics from the norms of millennia past which now prevail, this one may be the single greatest world-historical financial event since the Industrial Revolution, or the Black Death. There will be winners and losers.

Great post.  Do you mean direct ownership of (Chilean) farmland or are there ETFs you like for that?

My father is almost ready to retire and I want him to take a lump sum because I don't trust the solvency of his pension system any more than the Dallas PD's.

Considering this allocation for him:

20% gold bullion
20% silver bullion

16% safe jurisdiction PM miners
24% riskier jurisdiction/high dividend PM miners/royalty streamers
10% high dividend energy

5% Bitcoin
3% Monero
2% Litecoin

I guess you'd say 50% long equities is too much exposure to market counterparties/failures?

BTW, welcome back!  

[kurious]

Fantastic Aminorex post.

He does raise the tone, doesn't he.  I am still digesting it.  Looks like I am light on physical PMs and Chilean farmland.

Better get Googling!

[LennyCarl]

Fantastic Aminorex post.

He does raise the tone, doesn't he.  I am still digesting it.  Looks like I am light on physical PMs and Chilean farmland.

Better get Googling!

Please share what you learn!

[Billy Bunter]

Price of Chilean farmland has just jumped 20%.

[iCEBREAKER]

Price of Chilean farmland has just jumped 20%.

Chilean farmland shorts #AMINOREKT

[Hueristic]

Damn, I got 'Litecoin professional'  I hold zero LTC.  I was hoping for a more interesting one than that!  Had my fingers crossed for XMR fanboy

Funny I played LTC market for first time ever yesterday, bought @0.0041441 -sold @0.00715948 then again today shorted @0.00683250 wasn't sure which it was going to break so bailed @0.00676825, The volatility is ludicrous right now!

How can you not care about the graphics??

You know dude I am on a party where a bottle of champagne costs $2000 and the Imperial lounge sets you back $250k (if full = 4 people). My lounge is worth about $100k and I just do not care about graphics I hope you understand. I care about my kids and wish that is happening soon.

so you would rather buy 2k champagne than hire a 3d modeler and a 3d programmer to make your game playable, real nice job your doing there.

BTW what is the viewkey for the CK xmr funds?

[explorer]

Price of Chilean farmland has just jumped 20%.

Damn, always too late

[aminorex]

Great post.  Do you mean direct ownership of (Chilean) farmland or are there ETFs you like for that?

My father is almost ready to retire and I want him to take a lump sum because I don't trust the solvency of his pension system any more than the Dallas PD's.

Considering this allocation for him:

20% gold bullion
20% silver bullion

16% safe jurisdiction PM miners
24% riskier jurisdiction/high dividend PM miners/royalty streamers
10% high dividend energy

5% Bitcoin
3% Monero
2% Litecoin

I guess you'd say 50% long equities is too much exposure to market counterparties/failures?

BTW, welcome back!  

I like hard, productive assets over financial instruments, for long holding.  For most people farmland in South America or .au/.nz is piainful and inconvenient to own.  That's a significant part of the reason why it is relatively cheap.  It's probably not good for someone in retirement for whom liquidity is a paramount factor, unless they think to actually use it directly, or have ready arrangements for reliable rental income from it, in excess of what they could buy in an annuity.

I do think your proposed allocation is rather heavy in PM exposure.  I think streaming is probably better than miners, and the risk exposures are so correlated that I can't see much diversification benefit from holding significantly in both categories.  Physical metal is the systemic tail risk hedge.  Streamers are a levered inflation play with nice asymmetry, so I would trim the miners.

As for energy, that's a complex topic which I can't address right now.

In response to other questions: I don't hold significant amounts of cold reserve bitcoin, although I do have about 2% in a liquidity wallet at the moment.  My inclination is to trade it and use it rather than to hoard it.  People with less intense commitment to the peculiar merits of XMR than I should  definitely hold cold BTC as a significant part of long-term crypto.

[aminorex]

do you feel the BTC fork is inevitable or will this somehow get resolved?  And how will both possible outcomes affect the price of Monero in USD terms?

I am not privy to any privileged information pertaining to the likelihood of avoiding a fork.  From what public information I do know, it seems inevitable. 

You can think of it as a stock split or spinoff, in which case you should be bullish BTC, and expect outflows from alts due to other bulls, at least until the split has occurred and a stabilizing reversion begins; or, you can see it as precipitating a crisis of confidence among BTC holders, causing a rush into fiat, and significant inflows to alts.  As both views are plausibly supportable and I don't know the breakdown among crypto owners, I can't estimate how much or in what direction the market is misplacing it's estimation of scenario distributions.

As I can't front-run the market, I am not trading that turn.  Instead, I base my current positioning on considerations of volatility, which does seem very likely to rise substantially, and structural risk, which also seems to favor XMR over BTC.  My guess is that, as before, when BTC is in crisis, XMR will benefit more than most other alts.

[sui_generis]

Sorry, but putting 80% of your portfolio into precious metals/mining is a terrible idea. Maybe it makes sense as some sort of short term play if you feel that there's going to be a serious financial crisis, but even then, 80%?

Gold is going only one direction long term, down. Smart people do not bet against technology.

[Hueristic]

Sorry, but putting 80% of your portfolio into precious metals/mining is a terrible idea. Maybe it makes sense as some sort of short term play if you feel that there's going to be a serious financial crisis, but even then, 80%?

Gold is going only one direction long term, down. Smart people do not bet against technology.

I'm sorry, I'm not sure if I can take a Chronobank Proponent, Ark Champion and Shadowcash Investor seriously!!!

LOL, just shorted Dash right before the hammer fell @0.06272554.

[FOMOFish]

Looks like we have a short term reversal. Xmr is holding very well in the midst of the btc recovery. I expect ath 0.023 in the next month.

[KeyJockey]

So looks like Dark Coin aka Dash has now come back down for about 1/3 of the pump.

You guys think the DashMasters still have some ammo to play with in their game?

Is it gonna be a slow bleed back for the rest of the 2/3rds?

OR will we see a fast dump sometime soon?  

Slow bleed back.

The bigger shorters have been properly burned (their closing buys made the top between 100 and 120$) and they will not be going back in anytime soon. Therefore the price can slide slowly without 'passengers', and without wild swings as shorts won't come in and out.

Slow bleed, so far, looks like about right... it was at 1/3 when I wrote the above, and as of today about halfway now.

Wish I was brave enough to short this shit back the rest of the way but LOL what aminorex said about just feeling slimy dealing *at all* with any of this is right on point & principle too.

Better just sit back & watch the sideshow and hopefully just enjoy the inevitable XMR improvement rising.

[iCEBREAKER]

Sorry, but putting 80% of your portfolio into precious metals/mining is a terrible idea. Maybe it makes sense as some sort of short term play if you feel that there's going to be a serious financial crisis, but even then, 80%?

Gold is going only one direction long term, down. Smart people do not bet against technology.

Gold is going down against what, fiat?  I anticipate the US dollar going down from the current high faster than gold (especially as measured against Bitcoin and Monero).

Let's remember that the gold standard is a form of technology too, entailing remonetization of our favorite barbarous relic.

Technology is only a tool, subject to the whimsical uses and fickle notions of socioeconomic majorities.

EG:

The Russian central bank opened its first overseas office in Beijing on March 14, marking a step forward in forging a Beijing-Moscow alliance to bypass the US dollar in the global monetary system, and to phase-in a gold-backed standard of trade.

According to the South China Morning Post the new office was part of agreements made between the two neighbours "to seek stronger economic ties" since the West brought in sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis and the oil-price slump hit the Russian economy.

The new central bank office was opened at a time when Russia is preparing to issue its first federal loan bonds denominated in Chinese yuan. Officials from China’s central bank and financial regulatory commissions attended the ceremony at the Russian embassy in Beijing, which was set up in October 1959 in the heyday of Sino-Soviet relations. Financial regulators from the two countries agreed last May to issue home currency-denominated bonds in each other’s markets, a move that was widely viewed as intended to eventually test the global reserve status of the US dollar.

Speaking on future ties with Russia, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said in mid-March that Sino-Russian trade ties were affected by falling oil prices, but he added that he saw great potential in cooperation. Vladimir Shapovalov, a senior official at the Russian central bank, said the two central banks were drafting a memorandum of understanding to solve technical issues around China’s gold imports from Russia, and that details would be released soon.

[mastertrader777]

Hey guys,

Ready for some action?

Cheers,

MasterTrader777

NEM follower?  Quite a rare tag

I'm a rare kind of guy!