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Author Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation  (Read 3309524 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (2 posts by 1+ user deleted.)
Hueristic
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February 05, 2018, 09:51:00 PM
 #36481

Lol, they never rest. Smiley

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2850523.msg29681823#msg29681823

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
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February 05, 2018, 11:13:25 PM
Merited by phishead (1)
 #36482

By my calculations the Monero speculation thread is going to overtake the Monero ANN thread in page count in a month or two. Pretty sure this is the most bullish indicator in recent history, and likely indicates that the price per Monero will rise to match the total page count, so you can pretty much count on nearly $2k XMR by early April. Buy b42l8 and thank me later Smiley
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February 05, 2018, 11:44:50 PM
Merited by paratox (2), explorer (1), phishead (1)
 #36483

I think this crash was planned and orchestrated, many things came together and created this perfect storm:

- The mid January (Asian New Years) sell off.

- CMC removing Korea without announcement.

- Whales dumping and weak hands jumping in.

- The mainstream media (and even Cointelegraph and others) writing fake news FUD articles every other day (whenever it went up a little). So many fake news articles: Korea bans Crypto, India bans crypto, the list goes on.

- Tether FUD. What happened to innocent until proven guilty? People just assumed that they are scammers. The reserve banks of the world print unlimited money and pump it into the economy, stock market etc. But Tether is the BIG problem?

- The 100 richest Bitcoin adresses have increased and not decreased their holdings during the last four weeks.


Anyway, this correction / crash might also be a good thing, a lot of people came in for the wrong reasons, not caring about blockchain technology at all, expecting to get rich in a few month. This might be a needed cleanse and gve a fresh start. At least thats what I’m telling myself.
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February 06, 2018, 01:33:53 AM
 #36484

Is Monero still a good buy now because of the prices?
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February 06, 2018, 02:33:44 AM
Merited by fromholland (1)
 #36485

Is Monero still a good buy now because of the prices?

I don't understand when people ask this question. The lower the price the better the buy. It's twice as good of a buy as it was when it was twice the price.

Rep Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=381041
If one can not confer upon another a right which he does not himself first possess, by what means does the state derive the right to engage in behaviors from which the public is prohibited?
estenity
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February 06, 2018, 04:26:15 AM
 #36486

I think this crash was planned and orchestrated, many things came together and created this perfect storm:

- The mid January (Asian New Years) sell off.

- CMC removing Korea without announcement.

- Whales dumping and weak hands jumping in.

- The mainstream media (and even Cointelegraph and others) writing fake news FUD articles every other day (whenever it went up a little). So many fake news articles: Korea bans Crypto, India bans crypto, the list goes on.

- Tether FUD. What happened to innocent until proven guilty? People just assumed that they are scammers. The reserve banks of the world print unlimited money and pump it into the economy, stock market etc. But Tether is the BIG problem?

- The 100 richest Bitcoin adresses have increased and not decreased their holdings during the last four weeks.


Anyway, this correction / crash might also be a good thing, a lot of people came in for the wrong reasons, not caring about blockchain technology at all, expecting to get rich in a few month. This might be a needed cleanse and gve a fresh start. At least thats what I’m telling myself.

good to be a contrarian.
it helps during difficult moments.
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February 06, 2018, 04:27:47 AM
 #36487

I think this crash was planned and orchestrated, many things came together and created this perfect storm:

- The mid January (Asian New Years) sell off.

- CMC removing Korea without announcement.

- Whales dumping and weak hands jumping in.

- The mainstream media (and even Cointelegraph and others) writing fake news FUD articles every other day (whenever it went up a little). So many fake news articles: Korea bans Crypto, India bans crypto, the list goes on.

- Tether FUD. What happened to innocent until proven guilty? People just assumed that they are scammers. The reserve banks of the world print unlimited money and pump it into the economy, stock market etc. But Tether is the BIG problem?

- The 100 richest Bitcoin adresses have increased and not decreased their holdings during the last four weeks.


Anyway, this correction / crash might also be a good thing, a lot of people came in for the wrong reasons, not caring about blockchain technology at all, expecting to get rich in a few month. This might be a needed cleanse and gve a fresh start. At least thats what I’m telling myself.

good to be a contrarian.
it helps during difficult moments.

I do hope we see a bottom soon.  The charts keep on going down
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February 06, 2018, 04:28:05 AM
 #36488

Well what is the highest price do people think monero could become. Does anyone think it could possibly hit 5k or 10k or even more?
estenity
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February 06, 2018, 04:35:11 AM
 #36489

I think this crash was planned and orchestrated, many things came together and created this perfect storm:

- The mid January (Asian New Years) sell off.

- CMC removing Korea without announcement.

- Whales dumping and weak hands jumping in.

- The mainstream media (and even Cointelegraph and others) writing fake news FUD articles every other day (whenever it went up a little). So many fake news articles: Korea bans Crypto, India bans crypto, the list goes on.

- Tether FUD. What happened to innocent until proven guilty? People just assumed that they are scammers. The reserve banks of the world print unlimited money and pump it into the economy, stock market etc. But Tether is the BIG problem?

- The 100 richest Bitcoin adresses have increased and not decreased their holdings during the last four weeks.


Anyway, this correction / crash might also be a good thing, a lot of people came in for the wrong reasons, not caring about blockchain technology at all, expecting to get rich in a few month. This might be a needed cleanse and gve a fresh start. At least thats what I’m telling myself.

good to be a contrarian.
it helps during difficult moments.

I do hope we see a bottom soon.  The charts keep on going down

other simultaneities:
-financial crisis beginning in US
-political mess in the same country
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February 06, 2018, 04:41:48 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1)
 #36490

Well what is the highest price do people think monero could become. Does anyone think it could possibly hit 5k or 10k or even more?

So transaction fees were about 4 dollars or so when the price was 500. I suspect that around about a 4 dollar transaction fee is as much as the market will sustain. Bitcoin has managed to push higher but bitcoin is special. It is a powerful brand. So lets just say 4 dollars is about what someone is willing to pay in transaction fee for an altcoin and it was 4 dollars at 500 dollars. Bullet proofs will bring probably an 85% space savings. 80% on 2 output transactions but more space savings on transactions with more outputs so we need to increase it a bit above 80% to account for that. So with an 85% space savings and a 4 dollar transaction fee the price would be 6.6 times higher than 500. 500*6.6=3300.

So this is some super rough math but atleast it gives an idea of how to begin to approach this problem. Scalability is the limiting factor for cryptocurrencies right now and transaction fees are the measure of scalability (I know also centralization vs decentralization plays a role too but never the less). They are a reflection of the current progress in scaling technologies. The prices cant go higher until more and better scaling solutions are developed.

*edit*
Unless, as generalizethis points out, it starts getting valued as a tax haven type of reserve asset and not as a currency. Then people might be willing to deal with huge transaction fees. In which case the sky is the limit.

Rep Thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=381041
If one can not confer upon another a right which he does not himself first possess, by what means does the state derive the right to engage in behaviors from which the public is prohibited?
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February 06, 2018, 04:43:41 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1)
 #36491

Well what is the highest price do people think monero could become. Does anyone think it could possibly hit 5k or 10k or even more?

The market potential is in the trillions--based on the always expanding digital market for tax evasion and black markets.

Now will it capture all that market? Given its status as the best privacy coin, yes--when it comes to privacy, barring any significant price difference, people want to use the best tech as the human cost is dear to them. But that could change over time, so it would be foolish to presume that it will be the case for all time. So you buy and you watch the privacy market to see how Monero is progressing and any hedges you may want to make with interesting tech. One of the good things is that, at least as far as dark markets, privacy users are loyal--anyone who followed how long it took Monero to knock off a public blockchain can testify to that loyalty--AFAIK Bitcoin still has a lead on amount of tx on the dark market, though that's obviously shifting in Monero's favor as some of the  biggest markets add Monero.

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February 06, 2018, 05:54:00 AM
 #36492

Well what is the highest price do people think monero could become. Does anyone think it could possibly hit 5k or 10k or even more?

I wouldn't expect more than that this year.  My personal bull thoughts are 1500 worst case, 10K euphoria.  If there is a raging wild fire through cryptoland, then the bull may get grilled as steaks, and who knows how it plays out.  Still optimistic though currently down 50% for 2018.  There is a lot of 2018 remaining.  As for beyond that, highest price  I'd be pretty stunned to see it over 10 000 000, ever.  The $ comparison would fail before that happens, because nobody would be using $ for anything but paying taxes in the US, maybe not even that.
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February 06, 2018, 05:55:17 AM
 #36493

I think this crash was planned and orchestrated, many things came together and created this perfect storm:

- The mid January (Asian New Years) sell off.

- CMC removing Korea without announcement.

- Whales dumping and weak hands jumping in.

- The mainstream media (and even Cointelegraph and others) writing fake news FUD articles every other day (whenever it went up a little). So many fake news articles: Korea bans Crypto, India bans crypto, the list goes on.

- Tether FUD. What happened to innocent until proven guilty? People just assumed that they are scammers. The reserve banks of the world print unlimited money and pump it into the economy, stock market etc. But Tether is the BIG problem?

- The 100 richest Bitcoin adresses have increased and not decreased their holdings during the last four weeks.


Anyway, this correction / crash might also be a good thing, a lot of people came in for the wrong reasons, not caring about blockchain technology at all, expecting to get rich in a few month. This might be a needed cleanse and gve a fresh start. At least thats what I’m telling myself.

good to be a contrarian.
it helps during difficult moments.

I do hope we see a bottom soon.  The charts keep on going down

other simultaneities:
-financial crisis beginning in US  the world
-political mess in the same country world
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February 06, 2018, 05:57:54 AM
Last edit: February 06, 2018, 06:13:15 AM by explorer
Merited by johnalan (2)
 #36494

Well what is the highest price do people think monero could become. Does anyone think it could possibly hit 5k or 10k or even more?

So transaction fees were about 4 dollars or so when the price was 500.

That was just for lazy/ignorant/generous/impatient/urgent people.  It barely topped a dollar for anyone willing to push (literally) one or two buttons and risk (small risk) <4 minutes vs <2 to confirm. So I would multiply your findings by 4...

note:  I've been here since early 2014, and I did (guessing) more transactions in the last 6 months than the 3 prior years combined.  I paid a tick over a dollar once, and something like $60 once when I fucked up on margin and was desperate to cut every second possible from the confirmation time by guaranteeing the next block.
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February 06, 2018, 06:36:07 AM
 #36495

Monero was getting some momentum all signs were great...
Then entire crypto market drops 20%+
Gotta love crypto though in all seriousness its such a fickle market
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February 06, 2018, 07:08:01 AM
 #36496


Never say never, the market tends to overreact unpredictably at times.  I mean I sure don't want this to happen but I'm not gonna be denying that 'it will never happen' either.  Apathy and fear are the market's greatest enemies and that's what we are facing.

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       RLB       
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..PLAY NOW..
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February 06, 2018, 07:09:25 AM
 #36497


Never say never, the market tends to overreact unpredictably at times.  I mean I sure don't want this to happen but I'm not gonna be denying that 'it will never happen' either.  Apathy and fear are the market's greatest enemies and that's what we are facing.

Question is of xmr could recover from this ?
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February 06, 2018, 07:33:02 AM
 #36498



Question is of xmr could recover from this ?

It has every time so far, and it is growing better faster than ever.  Why wouldn't it?  Even centralized non-fungible coins recover routinely from big spikes and the subsequent drops.
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February 06, 2018, 08:48:16 AM
 #36499

Question is of xmr could recover from this ?

No. Moreno is likely headed back to its ICO price; and may remain at sub-$20 for a while —if it survives as a cryptocurrency.

Afraid cannot suggest any viable cryptocurrency as a stable investment during 2018-2020.

Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unwinding bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases 80%-90% in value; see here:
http://www.thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes/

Applying the same metrics to the cryptocurrency bubble, it would suggest Bitcoin at sub $1000 by Christmas 2018 or Easter 2019.
From late 2019 to early 2020, the second generation of cryptocurrencies ought to emerge as viable long-term investments; however this time, with stable growth, purpose fit technology, robust secure exchange platforms and real adoption —not parabolic exuberance.

Paradoxically, a volatile and rapid appreciation of a currency, is a failed currency. By definition, currencies are supposed to be recognized, accepted and stable mediums of exchange —not just another speculative boom-bust asset class.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.0
 
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February 06, 2018, 08:52:47 AM
 #36500

Question is of xmr could recover from this ?

No. Moreno is likely headed back to its ICO price; and may remain at sub-$20 for a while —if it survives as a cryptocurrency.

Afraid cannot suggest any viable cryptocurrency as a stable investment during 2018-2020.

Historically, when any asset bubble bursts, the unwinding bear market typically lasts 2 years on average (from peak price to ultimate low); and usually erases 80%-90% in value; see here:
http://www.thebubblebubble.com/historic-crashes/

Applying the same metrics to the cryptocurrency bubble, it would suggest Bitcoin at sub $1000 by Christmas 2018 or Easter 2019.
From late 2019 to early 2020, the second generation of cryptocurrencies ought to emerge as viable long-term investments; however this time, with stable growth, purpose fit technology, robust secure exchange platforms and real adoption —not parabolic exuberance.

Paradoxically, a volatile and rapid appreciation of a currency, is a failed currency. By definition, currencies are supposed to be recognized, accepted and stable mediums of exchange —not just another speculative boom-bust asset class.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2711461.0
 

Sub 20, don’t make me laugh. Could we consider this trolling ? That would mean we go up soon Wink
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