[XMR] Monero Speculation

[explorer]

If everyone posted an apology for every speculation not realized, this speculation thread would be twice as long.

I will apologize for this post when I see close to 100% speculation accuracy here.

[1714034121]

1714034121

[noobtrader]

Dear Icetroller,
this is Monero Speculation Thread not BTC speculation thread, please stop being OT in this Thread.    

thank you

As much as I disagree with the big blocker philosophy... Aminorex has NOTHING to apologize for to anyone.  That is some of the most ridiculous shit posted here.  On the contrary, I am ashamed this thread has turned all Aspergers on him for stating his opinion.

Calm the hell down, IMHO.

I am the calm one here.  You can tell because I'm referring to objective numbers provided by a 3rd party and because I'm not spewing Chicken Little gloom-and-doom FUD about how Bitcoin is going to die (and/or is already dead).

Aminorex's opinions predictions about s2x's fate and The Evil Blockstream Core Conspiracy were/are flat-out wrong.  He needs to be called out for and own those mistakes.  You don't need to leap into the fray in a chivalrous attempt to white knight for him.  He's a big boy and fully capable of engaging me without you trying to set the acceptable parameters of our discourse.

[iCEBREAKER]

If everyone posted an apology for every speculation not realized, this speculation thread would be twice as long.

I will apologize for this post when I see close to 100% speculation accuracy here.

You're right that apologizing for "every" incorrect bit of speculation is not warranted, and that is indeed a quite a humorous suggestion.

But you are dishonestly retreating into generalizations as a way to avoid the particular very-high profile and thus especially egregious 'Bitcoin is dead/dying' FUD being spread by Aminorex.

I'm not asking for an apology as some sort of groveling for forgiveness within a moralistic overlay; I simply have high expectations for our most respected posters, which entails they own up to their most massive counterfactual mistakes and perhaps explain to their flocks how/why they managed to get it so wrong.

[cAPSLOCK]

As much as I disagree with the big blocker philosophy... Aminorex has NOTHING to apologize for to anyone.  That is some of the most ridiculous shit posted here.  On the contrary, I am ashamed this thread has turned all Aspergers on him for stating his opinion.

Calm the hell down, IMHO.

I am the calm one here.  You can tell because I'm referring to objective numbers provided by a 3rd party and because I'm not spewing Chicken Little gloom-and-doom FUD about how Bitcoin is going to die (and/or is already dead).

Aminorex's opinions predictions about s2x's fate and The Evil Blockstream Core Conspiracy were/are flat-out wrong.  He needs to be called out for and own those mistakes.  You don't need to leap into the fray in a chivalrous attempt to white knight for him.  He's a big boy and fully capable of engaging me without you trying to set the acceptable parameters of our discourse.

You did not ask him to apologize, which was my main beef. 

The two of you want to go mano a mano on Big blocks/blockstream/core/Monero/etc then I will go pop some corn...  Or get some nice chicharones since I am low carb.  I am fairly firmly on the core side of this fence.   I would enjoy good arguments made on each side.  And how they relate to Monero's value makes it all the better.

[the_viper]

The one thing that doesn't add up to me is that darkcoin is significantly higher than Monero still.  Comparing Monero to bit coin days.  There wasn't a precursor to bitcoin that tried to do the same thing in an inferior way that had a higher market cap.

[explorer]

The one thing that doesn't add up to me is that darkcoin is significantly higher than Monero still.  Comparing Monero to bit coin days.  There wasn't a precursor to bitcoin that tried to do the same thing in an inferior way that had a higher market cap.

When one entity owns (premine) vast amounts of the coin, and there is no trade volume and no transactions, they can set the price wherever they want.  It really is irrelevant.

[johnalan]

Maybe crypto is like PMs where gold is still king after thousands of years.

Bitcoin is more like aluminum than gold.  In order to transfer value it takes much longer and costs vastly more than any other crypto of comparable monetary function.

It remains to be seen whether a settlements network can be salvaged from the ashes of the house Satoshi built and the core team burned down.  I would not invest in bitcoin now, simply because it is not useful now, and I have no confidence in the salvage crew.

Bitcoin should and I hope, will survive.  Its robustness (anti-fragility) is legend and so it is and will be for some time the standard bearer for all crypto.  

A blind, arthritic and demented standard bearer does not seem like a good thing to me. Lack of utility, if it persists, will surely bleed its value inexorably down. I hope I am proven wrong because the wake of a sinking titan can capsize numerous lesser vessels. Even a sound one will be tossed brutally in those swells.

Monero has a lead for being perceived as honest and unflashy.  And it has a use-case.   As long as the use case is required it will be hard for other coins to take over its place.  Optional privacy may be added to other coins, but Monero's privacy by default is the only way, so it has a good chance of being one of the 'few' to make it.

Not only does it have a use case, but it is actually fit for purpose.  At least one of ten ICOs has a plausible, or even a legitimate and viable use case and hence a niche. But far fewer are actually fit for that use, and all have much narrower niches than monero, save perhaps transparent liquidity and possibly even contracts.  What is the likely successor to BTC for liquidity?  Well, LTC transfers per unit of market cap are vastly higher than BitcoinCash, so it is looking remarkably and surprisingly useful, in addition to it's tenure.

I don't think ETH is a robust contracts platform.  All the larceny is sufficient to discredit ETH.  Usability is still at the squat toilet level.  But...It could be a long while before a 10x better platform emerges - and that is usually what it takes to displace an incumbent, a 10x ROI.

Very interesting thoughts, as always.

I expect we should see Monero break 1K by July.

[tokeweed]

Announcement - Proof-of-Work tweak and a note on key reuse

https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

I'm curious.  It was mentioned that there will come a time that Monero won't be doing the bi annual hard forks in the future as the coin becomes big enough that any hard fork could get risky.  Does that mean ASIC's could come anyway?

[Billy Bunter]

Announcement - Proof-of-Work tweak and a note on key reuse

https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

I'm curious.  It was mentioned that there will come a time that Monero won't be doing the bi annual hard forks in the future as the coin becomes big enough that any hard fork could get risky.  Does that mean ASIC's could come anyway?

I guess nobody really knows how this will play out in the long term. Maybe tweaking the POW algo is not such a big deal for a hard fork. But, more likely, this notice serves more as a deterrent and a threat rather than a promise. If ASIC manufacturers can be persuaded that Monero might change its POW algo at any given time then they may not bother developing one targeted at Monero.

Opinions on MoneroV and the RingCT issue?

[Febo]

Announcement - Proof-of-Work tweak and a note on key reuse

https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

I'm curious.  It was mentioned that there will come a time that Monero won't be doing the bi annual hard forks in the future as the coin becomes big enough that any hard fork could get risky.  Does that mean ASIC's could come anyway?

I guess nobody really knows how this will play out in the long term. Maybe tweaking the POW algo is not such a big deal for a hard fork. But, more likely, this notice serves more as a deterrent and a threat rather than a promise. If ASIC manufacturers can be persuaded that Monero might change its POW algo at any given time then they may not bother developing one targeted at Monero.

Yes, I see that post on getmonero as a statement to the ASIC manufacturers. That Monero is and always will be ASIC resistant. With recent fast growth of Monero mining hash power were some speculations that someone build an ASIC miner. This change totally denies that speculation.  And to make a change every 6 months is not needed. I read it someone said it would be enough to do it every 2 years.

[Billy Bunter]

Announcement - Proof-of-Work tweak and a note on key reuse

https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

I'm curious.  It was mentioned that there will come a time that Monero won't be doing the bi annual hard forks in the future as the coin becomes big enough that any hard fork could get risky.  Does that mean ASIC's could come anyway?

I guess nobody really knows how this will play out in the long term. Maybe tweaking the POW algo is not such a big deal for a hard fork. But, more likely, this notice serves more as a deterrent and a threat rather than a promise. If ASIC manufacturers can be persuaded that Monero might change its POW algo at any given time then they may not bother developing one targeted at Monero.

Yes, I see that post on getmonero as a statement to the ASIC manufacturers. That Monero is and always will be ASIC resistant. With recent fast growth of Monero mining hash power were some speculations that someone build an ASIC miner. This change totally denies that speculation.  And to make a change every 6 months is not needed. I read it someone said it would be enough to do it every 2 years.

Good point.

[aminorex]

Bitcoin is more like aluminum than gold.  In order to transfer value it takes much longer and costs vastly more than any other crypto of comparable monetary function.

sooooo... xmr tx fee is cheaper than bitcoin now ?

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/transactionfees-btc-xmr.html#3m

 

EDIT : 
BTC av tx fee  3.4 usd 
xmr av tx fee  6.5 usd 

There you go.  My experience is now obsolete again.

[aminorex]

'Bitcoin is dead/dying' FUD being spread by Aminorex.

...they own up to their most massive counterfactual mistakes and perhaps explain to their flocks how/why they managed to get it so wrong.

Yeah, the fee crisis is over, for now at least, and whether it will repeat I am not now competent to speculate.  I should learn to keep my mouth shut when I am not following current events.  I was quite wrong about s2x, because core was able to act while I was expecting even more stagnation. That error, again, is attributable to neglecting the current available information about the internal dynamics of core. I was also quite wrong about Bitcoin Cash, which has far exceeded my expectations.  I don't even know enough to say why.

Once you know something well, you can make more reasonable projections than before, but if you don't stay up-to-date on the most important factors, in a dynamic environment, that potential degrades rapidly.  My takeaway is to remember to check whether my info is still pertinent rather than repeating old conclusions without updating.  I have done it before, so shame on me for not learning from it then.  It is easy to get cocky and sloppy after a few wins, and a hard reality check is good for the soul, focusses the mind.  So thanks for pointing it out.

Frankly I am not paying enough attention to classic crypto lately for anyone to hang on my words about it.  I try to get the big picture, but my detail attention is currently consumed by lawyers and web plumbing for a CEF.  C'est la guerre.

[Hueristic]

Announcement - Proof-of-Work tweak and a note on key reuse

https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

thanks

I'd rather be able to use as intended when I bought them in December 

That would be optimal but ever since butterfly labs I have never even thought of buying before a product is out and working.

'Bitcoin is dead/dying' FUD being spread by Aminorex.

...they own up to their most massive counterfactual mistakes and perhaps explain to their flocks how/why they managed to get it so wrong.

Yeah, the fee crisis is over, for now at least, and whether it will repeat I am not now competent to speculate.  I should learn to keep my mouth shut when I am not following current events.  I was quite wrong about s2x, because core was able to act while I was expecting even more stagnation. That error, again, is attributable to neglecting the current available information about the internal dynamics of core. I was also quite wrong about Bitcoin Cash, which has far exceeded my expectations.  I don't even know enough to say why.

Once you know something well, you can make more reasonable projections than before, but if you don't stay up-to-date on the most important factors, in a dynamic environment, that potential degrades rapidly.  My takeaway is to remember to check whether my info is still pertinent rather than repeating old conclusions without updating.  I have done it before, so shame on me for not learning from it then.  It is easy to get cocky and sloppy after a few wins, and a hard reality check is good for the soul, focusses the mind.  So thanks for pointing it out.

Frankly I am not paying enough attention to classic crypto lately for anyone to hang on my words about it.  I try to get the big picture, but my detail attention is currently consumed by lawyers and web plumbing for a CEF.  C'est la guerre.

Well said.

[johnalan]

'Bitcoin is dead/dying' FUD being spread by Aminorex.

...they own up to their most massive counterfactual mistakes and perhaps explain to their flocks how/why they managed to get it so wrong.

Yeah, the fee crisis is over, for now at least, and whether it will repeat I am not now competent to speculate.  I should learn to keep my mouth shut when I am not following current events.  I was quite wrong about s2x, because core was able to act while I was expecting even more stagnation. That error, again, is attributable to neglecting the current available information about the internal dynamics of core. I was also quite wrong about Bitcoin Cash, which has far exceeded my expectations.  I don't even know enough to say why.

Once you know something well, you can make more reasonable projections than before, but if you don't stay up-to-date on the most important factors, in a dynamic environment, that potential degrades rapidly.  My takeaway is to remember to check whether my info is still pertinent rather than repeating old conclusions without updating.  I have done it before, so shame on me for not learning from it then.  It is easy to get cocky and sloppy after a few wins, and a hard reality check is good for the soul, focusses the mind.  So thanks for pointing it out.

Frankly I am not paying enough attention to classic crypto lately for anyone to hang on my words about it.  I try to get the big picture, but my detail attention is currently consumed by lawyers and web plumbing for a CEF.  C'est la guerre.

Surely not going bearish on XMR?

[rdp]

Announcement - Proof-of-Work tweak and a note on key reuse

https://getmonero.org/2018/02/11/PoW-change-and-key-reuse.html

Will this protocol change affects botnets mining? And if it affects that, does it means hashing power will dive at least for some time around fork period?

Will there be a chance of a chain split because these "70% unknown" hash power comes from botnets and that they might not just switch the software version promptly, leaving and old "ghost" chain burning power and taking some unaware souls?

[3x2]

Any news when Monero mobile wallet will be released, currently it is very difficult to send XMR payment on the go.

[ProofOfLambo]

I am not sure that cashing would be wrong today by the look of the market of bitcoin and the alternatives . Not taking into account that is purely a simple opinion with sights on the market. .

[Shnikes101]

Any news when Monero mobile wallet will be released, currently it is very difficult to send XMR payment on the go.

https://monerujo.io/ - is great for android. Especially with its xmr.to btc payments ability

I believe there's one for ios called Cake? I have no experience with it though

[rinus]

Just to be clear, with this hard fork and all, there is no problem with the Monero anonymity ? Because this is what makes Monero so special, anonymity... is this a reason to sell, this coming hard fork? I guess not, I don’t want to sell! But I am Having trouble understanding the whole coming situation