Critical Levels - EW analysis

[meh32123]

Keep the post up chessnut, I always like to read them, undoubtedly many others as well. The silent lurkers club

[Globb0]

Even if you don't vibrate  at a certain frequencies   

[eboard10]

Possible count on Bitfinex. Wave c could easily go lower as long as it stays above $389. It could also have just completed but would look better with another drop.

[btc4lifer]

Possible count on Bitfinex. Wave c could easily go lower as long as it stays above $389. It could also have just completed but would look better with another drop.

purfect

[jehst]

Analysis never ends.

[chessnut]

...tracking this

[phoenix1]

I am cautious about this count but it is a fair case for a halving bubble. There is a lot of opportunity for ambiguity here.

Hey chessnut, thnks for starting this thread up again  

I reposted the chart above as I wanted clarification on something ...

If this is a triangle as per your 1st chart of the 2, how would that fit with the chart I reposted? Would it not invalidate that count as triangles only happen in wave 4 or B right? And it seems waaaay too big to be a 4th wave of the possible wave i initial break up from multi-month triangle. So it would have to be 'something else' - do you have an alt count for that scenario?
More sideways and consolidation, still in B of (B)  ?? 

If it is A-B-C as per your 2nd chart, there is no invalidation of your cautious count, right?

[chessnut]

Hey chessnut, thnks for starting this thread up again  

I reposted the chart above as I wanted clarification on something ...

If this is a triangle as per your 1st chart of the 2, how would that fit with the chart I reposted? Would it not invalidate that count as triangles only happen in wave 4 or B right? And it seems waaaay too big to be a 4th wave of the possible wave i initial break up from multi-month triangle. So it would have to be 'something else' - do you have an alt count for that scenario?

If it is A-B-C as per your 2nd chart, there is no invalidation of your cautious count, right?

Thats right... its difficult to fit the local triangle into that count, but with the potential for ambiguity of the larger count I wouldn't rule it out, its better to swing with the punches and I think the larger count becomes weaker by the day. The Ending diagonal local count is probably the better count... imo

.. fyi, with good form you can have a triangle in y or x position of a complex correction and expect continuation and not termination.

[phoenix1]

Thanks Chess, yeh, ever since it started looking like a triangle, I've been thinking 'wtf is THAT doing there?' lol

Yeh, I was aware of triangles in copmlex corrections (to a degree!) - I guess that is wat we would be looking at if it plays out that way - we are still in a complex (B) correction since $500 and are yet to start (C) of B.
Or somethng totally different lol

FWIW, that triangle is only still a opition on chinese exchanges as I see it ...

[RyNinDaCleM]

That green ABC from today's second chart is how I see it. Until it invalidates (Below triangle apex for the rising bull support, and more importantly, the triangle E and wave 1 low), I see no reason to think anything different. I don't have the ending diagonal, but that isn't important here.


Red could be over sooner or later than green depending on the drop out count. I'm on my phone so...

[phoenix1]

Thanks Ryn .. that makes more sense to me as to how a triangle 'could' fit into the picture, unless it is nested 1-2's as you show. Does not really make much difference when looked at that way, except the start point of C
All good if we hold above the start of 1 as you say.

[Pab]

Support level is 440$ than 420$i think some traders took his profit,wait for China we will see what will happen
maybe it is step back before rise

[RyNinDaCleM]

This is to clarify on the triangle apex (just below $429, a little higher than my horizontal line I have there) and the wave-1 invalidation ($412). First of 3 significant supports have already been lost (lower triangle, rising support) and tested as resistance. No confirmation in either direction yet for that tested resistance.


Don't mind the gay pride arrow.. I made this chart in the 460's and it seems only red (and maybe green if it had a truncated 5th for the B) is left as plausible.

[phoenix1]

I'm gonna get me some special glasses with colour filters so I can see one option at a time 

[RyNinDaCleM]

I'm gonna get me some special glasses with colour filters so I can see one option at a time 

I didn't post it for the counts really since they aren't that important right now and doesn't include the red triangle from earlier. But here you go.

[chessnut]

its frustrating when the local counts dont play nicely with the big counts, but the bigger count seems to be well in tact now...

[oda.krell]

This is to clarify on the triangle apex (just below $429, a little higher than my horizontal line I have there) and the wave-1 invalidation ($412). First of 3 significant supports have already been lost (lower triangle, rising support) and tested as resistance. No confirmation in either direction yet for that tested resistance.


Don't mind the gay pride arrow.. I made this chart in the 460's and it seems only red (and maybe green if it had a truncated 5th for the B) is left as plausible.

Posted about a week ago, when price was still traipsing around at lower daily BB... Great call,Ry.

[chessnut]

Well done Ryan...

There is a telling little triangle at this point of the trend as we reach 3/4 of the minimm reasonable target, 4k yuan. be wary of over leveraged longs here.

[chessnut]

We have returned to the triangle of IV wave territory which I have been waiting for. This abc is probably the first wave of a triangle wave (IV)

minimum tgt 3800 for triangle, wave (V) tgt is 4k + regardless.

[chessnut]

We have returned to the triangle of IV wave territory which I have been waiting for. This abc is probably the first wave of a triangle wave (IV)

minimum tgt 3800 for triangle, wave (V) tgt is 4k + regardless.

Tracking the triangle.... I would expect around 3900, 3800 minimum, and then 62% retrace.