Critical Levels - EW analysis

[Tzupy]

...

Don't try to fit the rules into your interpretation.  Try to fit your interpretation to the rules.

The "rules" are valid when the assumptions they are built on are valid, and sometimes they are not.
In particular, the "rules" are valid when a certain evolution of the demand is present. But if we already topped, the "crazy" scenario is invalid anyway.
So I have a new favorite scenario, with only local points marked. If the bulls fail to breakout within the next days, something like this becomes probable.

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[LFC_Bitcoin]

I think there is no good reason why it shouldnt go as low as $670 or 4500 yuan.

That's good to read chessnut, I value your input & opinion here. You are a good source who has no agenda. Too many bull shit EW/chart analysts who have bearish agendas trying to trick people.

[chessnut]

I think there is no good reason why it shouldnt go as low as $670 or 4500 yuan.

That's good to read chessnut, I value your input & opinion here. You are a good source who has no agenda. Too many bull shit EW/chart analysts who have bearish agendas trying to trick people.

yw

a plausible situation within a local corrction...

[Tzupy]

^^^^^
If 4900 CNY support will be broken, could happen tomorrow, I would expect a local bottom a bit lower, like 4500 to 4600 CNY.

[chessnut]

I think there is no good reason why it shouldnt go as low as $670 or 4500 yuan.

That's good to read chessnut, I value your input & opinion here. You are a good source who has no agenda. Too many bull shit EW/chart analysts who have bearish agendas trying to trick people.

yw

a plausible situation within a local corrction...

look like this was correct, if so wave v would be fit to touch the channel within wave iv territory.

[meh32123]

Great call chessnut!

[Tzupy]

^^^^^
If 4900 CNY support will be broken, could happen tomorrow, I would expect a local bottom a bit lower, like 4500 to 4600 CNY.

I think 4550 CNY was a local bottom. Closed half my short this morning, to be safe, now I will again miss an optimal trade because BFX is down.

PS. the Chinese are bearisher than I expected!

PS2. Managed to close the other half of my short at an average 651$, now trying to catch a falling knife around 605$ if someone panicks further!

[sandiman]

Again, great call!

[chessnut]

Again, great call!

Great call chessnut!

Thanks 

This is a critical level^tm - be cautious about doing anything on leverage. better to wait for the dust to settle then we buy in a bit higher maybe.

[podyx]

So did we break the support?

[chessnut]

So did we break the support?

We broke wave iv territory and the channel but not w1. It could imply the whole move being an abc... we need a lot more PA to say.

[Tzupy]

I compared the correction with the one of 4th - 5th November 2015. The current one was 19%, from the top to presumably this local bottom.
Back then, it was 18%, followed by a 62% retracement, before the next plunge. So if this retraces to 4800 CNY, and then crashes again...

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

680 on Bitstamp has been a tipping point. Price needs to get back above 680 soon or we could be in for a larger correction. Also note that ether was strong while bitcoin had the decline. Important points to consider.

[chessnut]

680 on Bitstamp has been a tipping point. Price needs to get back above 680 soon or we could be in for a larger correction. Also note that ether was strong while bitcoin had the decline. Important points to consider.

Is that based on EW?

based on he triangle and he form of the fall this should be the local count meaning the bottom is near. this would be bottoming in the territory of a correction which makes me think the larger impulse could be the second chart. slightly difficul to fit i of (iii) but this makes better sense within the context of our original primary wave.






breaking the channel, or about 3800-3700 is very bearish.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

See https://btctrading.wordpress.com/2016/06/12/long-term-update-static-resistance/ for $680 explanation.

I have found Fibonacci analysis very useful in bitcoin price prediction. Here is a weekly OKCoin chart with Fibonacci levels drawn from the two most prominent lows to the recent high. Since the 23.6% level has been broken I think it is a good bet that support would be found at 38.2% at 3560 to 3686. A 38.2% retracement would not invalidate a bull market.

[Miz4r]

See https://btctrading.wordpress.com/2016/06/12/long-term-update-static-resistance/ for $680 explanation.

I have found Fibonacci analysis very useful in bitcoin price prediction. Here is a weekly OKCoin chart with Fibonacci levels drawn from the two most prominent lows to the recent high. Since the 23.6% level has been broken I think it is a good bet that support would be found at 38.2% at 3560 to 3686. A 38.2% retracement would not invalidate a bull market.

I'm looking at the Fibonacci levels drawn from the consolidation levels around 2900 CNY or $435 USD to the top at 5185 CNY. A 50 or 61.8% retracement would be fine for a correction and to stay in the bull market, which corresponds to $610 and $570 or 4000 and 3750 CNY. At both points the market could find support, but my bet is on 4000 CNY right now which we just touched. At this point the 4h and 1h charts look quite oversold so we're in for a decent bounce in my opinion, probably to at least $700. We'll see.

[sidhujag]

went below both of your predictions... next level of support now... angle of descent looks dangerous

[Tzupy]

I compared the correction with the one of 4th - 5th November 2015. The current one was 19%, from the top to presumably this local bottom.
Back then, it was 18%, followed by a 62% retracement, before the next plunge. So if this retraces to 4800 CNY, and then crashes again...

In the meantime the correction rose to almost 30%. I find this supportive of the "crazy" scenario (or a variant of it) that was scoffed at by fellow EWers.

[chessnut]

680 on Bitstamp has been a tipping point. Price needs to get back above 680 soon or we could be in for a larger correction. Also note that ether was strong while bitcoin had the decline. Important points to consider.

Is that based on EW?

based on he triangle and he form of the fall this should be the local count meaning the bottom is near. this would be bottoming in the territory of a correction which makes me think the larger impulse could be the second chart. slightly difficul to fit i of (iii) but this makes better sense within the context of our original primary wave.






breaking the channel, or about 3800-3700 is very bearish.

We broke the impulse channel for a brief moment on the scale of things causing a hypothetical fourth wave throw over. It bottomed cleanly within the fourth wave and wicked above the channel. A fifth wave is still fitting in the larger context and we are still in the dark about its potential as far as I can see. it could fail under $750 or it could blow out.

[Fakhoury]

680 on Bitstamp has been a tipping point. Price needs to get back above 680 soon or we could be in for a larger correction. Also note that ether was strong while bitcoin had the decline. Important points to consider.

Is that based on EW?

based on he triangle and he form of the fall this should be the local count meaning the bottom is near. this would be bottoming in the territory of a correction which makes me think the larger impulse could be the second chart. slightly difficul to fit i of (iii) but this makes better sense within the context of our original primary wave.






breaking the channel, or about 3800-3700 is very bearish.

We broke the impulse channel for a brief moment on the scale of things causing a hypothetical fourth wave throw over. It bottomed cleanly within the fourth wave and wicked above the channel. A fifth wave is still fitting in the larger context and we are still in the dark about its potential as far as I can see. it could fail under $750 or it could blow out.

it could fail under $750 or it could blow out.

Thank you for the awesome updates brother.

Chessnut, when will the above quote be visible for you ?