Critical Levels - EW analysis

[RyNinDaCleM]

I agree Rynin not counting for the new bubble yet. however being in logarithmic airspace I think we are still in the woods for targets for V.

Not sure what you mean... Are you referring to your triangle as IV and V up out of that triangle? If so, that is exactly what I have there. If you mean the potential for a V up to ath's where 1200 was a III and 152 from August was IV, then I agree that it's possible, but it still remains fairly low on my expectation for the time being.

So, what's your real/legit target, big dog? Is it a bear disaster or something else that you can spell out?

If you mean downside should my outlook come to fruition? It's not clear how low it could go yet. Not until I am confident the top of (B) is in. If upwards of $1000, then somewhere around the January 2015 low, and double digits would be very unlikely. It can fail to make lower lows as well, but I won't make that call until the (C) is well underway. Usually 61.8-100% of the (A). This is too early to make this kind of target.

If the top is already in (which I doubt yet) then it can still get double digits, since 100% of the (A) would be well below $100. A minimum of $166 would be expected if the top is in.

[chessnut]

If the largest picture is a combination then the guideline is that "combinations tend not to slant against the trend" meaning that we should test the highs before testing the lows. this would be true if the larger picture was a flat as well. This is why I think that testing $1000 is not improbable if this is a wave V in progress.

[chessnut]

It appears that this triangle has turned to become a B wave of an ABC which is a most interesting twist. Targets of wave C could be 3000 yuan or so.

[btcmerich]

so you think according to your  chart , we will hit 449 USD?   sure is possible if we continue losing value. But the loss has been 1%-2% this is nothing.  According to your chart C  can also be around 5200 yen ( 770 USD )

Again we will see during this coming days how much and how fast BTC loses value and if that leads to more buys. If not leading to buys then we  will  be on a downward spiral

[podyx]

I hope that you are wrong this time

Would you say that triangle is invalidated if we were to go above 670 again?

[RyNinDaCleM]

I hope that you are wrong this time

Would you say that triangle is invalidated if we were to go above 670 again?

My chart is still valid above 4068.92 okcoin and 610.10 bfx. His is still valid below 4598.59 okc and 689.96 bfx

[Tzupy]

I hope that you are wrong this time

Would you say that triangle is invalidated if we were to go above 670 again?

My chart is still valid above 4068.92 okcoin and 610.10 bfx. His is still valid below 4598.59 okc and 689.96 bfx

Great... you made my trading plan public... panic buy if 690$ resistance breaks, because it goes upto 800$ and later 1200$,
or panic short if 610$ support breaks, because it drops to 480$.

[RyNinDaCleM]

I hope that you are wrong this time

Would you say that triangle is invalidated if we were to go above 670 again?

My chart is still valid above 4068.92 okcoin and 610.10 bfx. His is still valid below 4598.59 okc and 689.96 bfx

Great... you made my trading plan public... panic buy if 690$ resistance breaks, because it goes upto 800$ and later 1200$,
or panic short if 610$ support breaks, because it drops to 480$.

I'm sorry 

[sandiman]

Adding to EW analysis, some chart patterns that goes with it (I have to take break of Glenn Neely book, damn it this guys has half the talent of Robert in explaining waves  ).

The triangle that we formed since the  dump to 3500 CNY was broken upward two weeks ago (drawing it from last top before dump). Nonetheless, looks like bulls lacked strengh and we broke the triangle's apex (where both segment join). That signify break out invalidation, thus now odds are we'll have to reach triangle target downward (be aware that btc market like shake outs, but all indicator, importantly volume's one, are clearly shouting for south).

EDIT: starting triangle chapter, a little quote:

"As an Impulse sequence, three of the corrective patterns go with the corrective trend and two against the corrective trend".

 

[RyNinDaCleM]

"As an Impulse sequence, three of the corrective patterns go with the corrective trend and two against the corrective trend".

 

That makes no fucking sense!
It actually sounds more like an ending diagonal by "impulse sequence" and all "corrective patterns"

[sandiman]

"As an Impulse sequence, three of the corrective patterns go with the corrective trend and two against the corrective trend".

 

That makes no fucking sense!
It actually sounds more like an ending diagonal by "impulse sequence" and all "corrective patterns"

Following quote with image :

http://imgur.com/yhybCC9

I feel this Glenn Neely is over complicating things (had to skip a whole chapter on mono wave and retracement "rules" as he calls them, and I am already introduced to waves), tell my what you think about this statement  maybe I should just go back to robert's books

[Shiroslullaby]

Quick question for you guys about the books mentioned-
are any of these appropriate for a beginner, or is there some other resource I should start with?

Im interested in learning about markets, trading, and reading these waves, but I don't have much more than a basic understanding of how the graphs work.
Any info is greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance!

[RyNinDaCleM]

"As an Impulse sequence, three of the corrective patterns go with the corrective trend and two against the corrective trend".

 

That makes no fucking sense!
It actually sounds more like an ending diagonal by "impulse sequence" and all "corrective patterns"

Following quote with image :

http://imgur.com/yhybCC9

I feel this Glenn Neely is over complicating things (had to skip a whole chapter on mono wave and retracement "rules" as he calls them, and I am already introduced to waves), tell my what you think about this statement  maybe I should just go back to robert's books

Ok, context is nice here! "As in an" meaning "the same as with impulse..." three waves move with the trend and two against. Not that there are impulsive characteristics in the three that move with the trend, or that the whole structure is impulsive in nature.
Thanks for clarifying that.

[sandiman]

"As an Impulse sequence, three of the corrective patterns go with the corrective trend and two against the corrective trend".

 

That makes no fucking sense!
It actually sounds more like an ending diagonal by "impulse sequence" and all "corrective patterns"

Following quote with image :

http://imgur.com/yhybCC9

I feel this Glenn Neely is over complicating things (had to skip a whole chapter on mono wave and retracement "rules" as he calls them, and I am already introduced to waves), tell my what you think about this statement  maybe I should just go back to robert's books

Ok, context is nice here! "As in an" meaning "the same as with impulse..." three waves move with the trend and two against. Not that there are impulsive characteristics in the three that move with the trend, or that the whole structure is impulsive in nature.
Thanks for clarifying that.

Ah didn't understood what you mean now it's clear. Would you rather agree with that statement about triangle ?

Quick question for you guys about the books mentioned-
are any of these appropriate for a beginner, or is there some other resource I should start with?

Im interested in learning about markets, trading, and reading these waves, but I don't have much more than a basic understanding of how the graphs work.
Any info is greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance!

http://www.elliottwave.com/Video/Classic-Elliott-Wave-Educational-Series

this is probably the best to start with, you'll just need to be really motivated as it's not as easy as it seems 

[chessnut]

Triangle revised, same story but SHARP since its an eg type.

[AM4Bitcoin]

Nice call chessnut.

[quake313]

Wow, that was a damn good prediction 

[itod]

Keep these predictions going chessnut, amazing accuracy.

[sandiman]

How did you choose the lower boundary of your triangle ? is this just a quick drawing ??

https://www.tradingview.com/x/C58W1MxP/ 

cheers in advance 

[chessnut]

Nice call chessnut.

Wow, that was a damn good prediction  

Keep these predictions going chessnut, amazing accuracy.

Thanks.  

If you made big profits from my analysis you're welcome to put a tiny bit in here 1Hyit1R9hd1WS58CtNdAUqhM7BknKx5i1N

How did you choose the lower boundary of your triangle ? is this just a quick drawing ??

https://www.tradingview.com/x/C58W1MxP/  

cheers in advance  

where points b and d coincide... this is known as a barrier triangle. the earlier triangle I posted wasn't exactly right, its seldom perfect. just use your eyes and dont rely on exactitude.