Tzupy
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October 09, 2014, 10:01:09 AM |
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Considering that the drop came from the 480$ level, even if this is just a dead cat bounce, it could have reached 380$ or a bit higher.
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Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
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otto93
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Live, Hope, Win
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October 09, 2014, 03:05:36 PM |
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Considering that the drop came from the 480$ level, even if this is just a dead cat bounce, it could have reached 380$ or a bit higher.
Bitstamp's current high is 395.6
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chessnut (OP)
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October 09, 2014, 07:23:56 PM |
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we are on our way to 450+, and there are two likely ways we will get there. A. Impulsive a of IV or impulse i of greater cycle V (!) B. a severe correction at this stage is not wholly bullish but should be bought into, and sold at 450. It does imply that we will be retesting lows in a slow and painful manner in the coming months. Hold tight onto your bitcoins.
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chessnut (OP)
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October 09, 2014, 09:18:15 PM |
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Remember that if we correct sharply here we should not try pick the bottom, rather wait for confirmation or a 270 retest.
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chessnut (OP)
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October 09, 2014, 11:02:14 PM |
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Thanks a lot for sharing! Do you also use other tools like oscillators etc in your analysis? Sure enough, that big mofo wall made the technical picture a little bit confused when it was there... but I agree on the bigger scale it doesn't matter could we also be tracing out a bigger b wave right now before a final push higher? After such a massive move down I just can't believe we cannot even go above 350...! I have to give you credit for this count, you received your C wave, although it changes the bigger picture here.
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chessnut (OP)
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October 09, 2014, 11:02:46 PM |
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prophetx
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he who has the gold makes the rules
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October 09, 2014, 11:14:47 PM |
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very nice thread chessnut thanks for starting it
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chessnut (OP)
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October 09, 2014, 11:22:06 PM |
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very nice thread chessnut thanks for starting it
Thanks, I hope you find it useful in the coming weeks.
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windjc
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October 09, 2014, 11:30:49 PM |
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Good charts. I think we just started B of correction. Do not think we crash here. My C target is 420+ 13.3k shorts is bullish as heck.
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chessnut (OP)
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October 09, 2014, 11:56:58 PM |
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Good charts. I think we just started B of correction. Do not think we crash here. My C target is 420+
13.3k shorts is bullish as heck.
420 is not unreasonable, but for the moment I think that's looking too far ahead. Lets look for a wave B, deep retrace, 0.618, cerca 300. let the beast turn and buy. Targets will be clear at the end of C if it is an impulse (IV could be a triangle - in which case we just topped, unlikely)
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chessnut (OP)
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October 10, 2014, 12:33:10 AM |
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The initial point of this post was to identify levels of confirmation of wave C termination. Today I am fairly confident on the smaller scale that wave C is not complete. Here is the current preferred count.
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windjc
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October 10, 2014, 01:29:48 AM |
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Good charts. I think we just started B of correction. Do not think we crash here. My C target is 420+
13.3k shorts is bullish as heck.
420 is not unreasonable, but for the moment I think that's looking too far ahead. Lets look for a wave B, deep retrace, 0.618, cerca 300. let the beast turn and buy. Targets will be clear at the end of C if it is an impulse (IV could be a triangle - in which case we just topped, unlikely) .618 retrace on stamp is about 321. It would take 78%er to get us to 300. Personally I think that is a bit deep if we compare it to retraces on rallys off of other big drops - ie previous LL at 339. I think a 50-61 fib retrace is more likely, especially with all the shorts out there that have already "sold" their coins. But at this point it is all speculation.
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chessnut (OP)
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October 10, 2014, 03:56:38 AM |
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This is a short term forecast.
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chessnut (OP)
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October 10, 2014, 10:16:27 AM Last edit: October 10, 2014, 10:33:46 AM by chessnut |
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C wave forecast remains in tact. target cerca 330.
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zby
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October 10, 2014, 11:20:55 AM |
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C wave forecast remains in tact. target cerca 330. How about a triangle?
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SilentJohn
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October 10, 2014, 11:58:05 AM |
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Great thread! Thank you for sharing your expertise!
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chessnut (OP)
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October 10, 2014, 12:11:49 PM |
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How about a triangle?
A triangle would be a VERY shallow correction. we 90% expect greater than 0.382 correction, and in corrective waves deep corrections are most common. 0.618 would take us to 320ish, I am expecting at least 335.
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chessnut (OP)
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October 10, 2014, 12:13:21 PM |
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Great thread! Thank you for sharing your expertise!
thanks, have a great day trading.
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chessnut (OP)
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October 10, 2014, 08:32:58 PM |
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I am not confident that this c wave will play out as expected as we have broken the local down trend - looking for a better signal.
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chessnut (OP)
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October 11, 2014, 02:18:45 AM |
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We have not made a significant retracement of wave A, and I expect one. This is one option that caters for a wave B. I would wait for a strong confirmation before shorting this one, something that might not come. We are still looking towards buy targets of 330. If we break through 390 in an impulsive fashion, then I will try provide an entry point for the impulsive wave to cerca 450. This is NOT a long term hold position.
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