Critical Levels - EW analysis

[Tzupy]

Considering that the drop came from the 480$ level, even if this is just a dead cat bounce, it could have reached 380$ or a bit higher.

[otto93]

Considering that the drop came from the 480$ level, even if this is just a dead cat bounce, it could have reached 380$ or a bit higher.

Bitstamp's current high is 395.6

[chessnut]

we are on our way to 450+, and there are two likely ways we will get there.

A.


Impulsive a of IV or impulse i of greater cycle V (!)

B.


a severe correction at this stage is not wholly bullish but should be bought into, and sold at 450. It does imply that we will be retesting lows in a slow and painful manner in the coming months.

Hold tight onto your bitcoins.

[chessnut]

Remember that if we correct sharply here we should not try pick the bottom, rather wait for confirmation or a 270 retest.

[chessnut]

Thanks a lot for sharing! Do you also use other tools like oscillators etc in your analysis?
Sure enough, that big mofo wall made the technical picture a little bit confused when it was there... but I agree on the bigger scale it doesn't matter
could we also be tracing out a bigger b wave right now before a final push higher? After such a massive move down I just can't believe we cannot even go above 350...!

I have to give you credit for this count, you received your C wave, although it changes the bigger picture here.

[chessnut]

[prophetx]

very nice thread chessnut thanks for starting it

[chessnut]

very nice thread chessnut thanks for starting it

Thanks, I hope you find it useful in the coming weeks.

[windjc]

Good charts. I think we just started B of correction. Do not think we crash here. My C target is 420+

13.3k shorts is bullish as heck.

[chessnut]

Good charts. I think we just started B of correction. Do not think we crash here. My C target is 420+

13.3k shorts is bullish as heck.

420 is not unreasonable, but for the moment I think that's looking too far ahead. Lets look for a wave B, deep retrace, 0.618, cerca 300. let the beast turn and buy. Targets will be clear at the end of C if it is an impulse (IV could be a triangle - in which case we just topped, unlikely)

[chessnut]

The initial point of this post was to identify levels of confirmation of wave C termination. Today I am fairly confident on the smaller scale that wave C is not complete. Here is the current preferred count.

[windjc]

Good charts. I think we just started B of correction. Do not think we crash here. My C target is 420+

13.3k shorts is bullish as heck.

420 is not unreasonable, but for the moment I think that's looking too far ahead. Lets look for a wave B, deep retrace, 0.618, cerca 300. let the beast turn and buy. Targets will be clear at the end of C if it is an impulse (IV could be a triangle - in which case we just topped, unlikely)

.618 retrace on stamp is about 321. It would take 78%er to get us to 300. Personally I think that is a bit deep if we compare it to retraces on rallys off of other big drops - ie previous LL at 339.  

I think a 50-61 fib retrace is more likely, especially with all the shorts out there that have already "sold" their coins.

But at this point it is all speculation.

[chessnut]

This is a short term forecast.

[chessnut]

C wave forecast remains in tact. target cerca 330.

[zby]

C wave forecast remains in tact. target cerca 330.

How about a triangle?

[SilentJohn]

Great thread! Thank you for sharing your expertise!

[chessnut]

How about a triangle?

A triangle would be a VERY shallow correction. we 90% expect greater than 0.382 correction, and in corrective waves deep corrections are most common. 0.618 would take us to 320ish, I am expecting at least 335.

[chessnut]

Great thread! Thank you for sharing your expertise!

thanks, have a great day trading.

[chessnut]

I am not confident that this c wave will play out as expected as we have broken the local down trend - looking for a better signal.

[chessnut]

We have not made a significant retracement of wave A, and I expect one. This is one option that caters for a wave B.



I would wait for a strong confirmation before shorting this one, something that might not come. We are still looking towards buy targets of 330.

If we break through 390 in an impulsive fashion, then I will try provide an entry point for the impulsive wave to cerca 450. This is NOT a long term hold position.