Critical Levels - EW analysis

[chessnut]

Now wave iv seems complete, we can estimate a more accurate level for wave v. a bit lower than before, lets say 2040-2030.

We will have a reaction from this point. very possibly it will be the bottom, but there is just one chance that this is not over yet. see the highlighted circle. I think that is wave f-g of the extended trianlge. It could be wave i-ii. this means what we are seeing here is wave (v) of iii,

wave (iv) would top within wave ((iv)) so this is a breakout set up. At this point I suggest going long on a breakout through 2090 is a good strategy, or you could try cautiously to pick the bottom of wave (iii) if you are an active trader. you will need to place your stop under 2018 and accept it is a fairly risky trade.

[chessnut]

Looking at the 1m charts (yes, I know...) it seems as though wave v is done. Now the test..... 2090. if we break 2090 then buy the breakout, stoploss local lows. if we see weakness in that area, expect a drop to test lows and buy a weak fall there. no more shorting! close your shorts!

[_ajv_]

Looking at the 1m charts (yes, I know...) it seems as though wave v is done. Now the test..... 2090. if we break 2090 then buy the breakout, stoploss local lows. if we see weakness in that area, expect a drop to test lows and buy a weak fall there. no more shorting! close your shorts!

Is the end point of wave v same as the end point of wave b in the older post (below)? Or is that count valid anymore? To me it seems quite spot on! But then again, I may be missing something.

The dominant B wave forecast is playing out well, here is an updated chart of the larger wave C wave we have been tracking.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/98c0zxJF/

[chessnut]

Looking at the 1m charts (yes, I know...) it seems as though wave v is done. Now the test..... 2090. if we break 2090 then buy the breakout, stoploss local lows. if we see weakness in that area, expect a drop to test lows and buy a weak fall there. no more shorting! close your shorts!

Is the end point of wave v same as the end point of wave b in the older post (below)? Or is that count valid anymore? To me it seems quite spot on! But then again, I may be missing something.

The dominant B wave forecast is playing out well, here is an updated chart of the larger wave C wave we have been tracking.

Nope that scribble was a bit shallower than this wave b, by about 100 yuan. but looks about right. It is still a valid count. 

[Arv1e]

Looking at the 1m charts (yes, I know...) it seems as though wave v is done. Now the test..... 2090. if we break 2090 then buy the breakout, stoploss local lows. if we see weakness in that area, expect a drop to test lows and buy a weak fall there. no more shorting! close your shorts!

Is the end point of wave v same as the end point of wave b in the older post (below)? Or is that count valid anymore? To me it seems quite spot on! But then again, I may be missing something.

The dominant B wave forecast is playing out well, here is an updated chart of the larger wave C wave we have been tracking.

Hi, I am interested in your thread and taking it on board. To be honest it doesnt help that its in Yen as opposed to dollars as I am guessing most people on here relate to dollars therefore they have to do some mental conversion.

Once we get past that then I am struggling to get a grasp on your views/opinions.

It would be a lot easier for a simpleton like me if you were to add a footnote for dummies along the lines of

Well, we are in a bit of a no mans land today.. from a $440 position it may go up or down... Should it drop below $325 its a good buy as the graph extrapolation suggests it will rebound. On the other hand it may rise but it really need to break $370 to suggest we are enterring into a bull market..


That would be simple and really help me but, as its your post then i fully understand if you cant be arsed


Ta

[chessnut]

Hi, I am interested in your thread and taking it on board. To be honest it doesnt help that its in Yen as opposed to dollars as I am guessing most people on here relate to dollars therefore they have to do some mental conversion.

Once we get past that then I am struggling to get a grasp on your views/opinions.

It would be a lot easier for a simpleton like me if you were to add a footnote for dummies along the lines of

Well, we are in a bit of a no mans land today.. from a $440 position it may go up or down... Should it drop below $325 its a good buy as the graph extrapolation suggests it will rebound. On the other hand it may rise but it really need to break $370 to suggest we are enterring into a bull market..

That would be simple and really help me but, as its your post then i fully understand if you cant be arsed

Ta

The chines market and charts are more liquid. they make for far superior analysis. This is why I will nearly always chart the yuan, sorry. I will try give USD values for bitstamp and bfx when it is important but otherwise you need to look at the charts yourself and see the critical levels as they appear on the chinese charts.

[RyNinDaCleM]

Hi, I am interested in your thread and taking it on board. To be honest it doesnt help that its in Yen as opposed to dollars as I am guessing most people on here relate to dollars therefore they have to do some mental conversion.

Once we get past that then I am struggling to get a grasp on your views/opinions.

It would be a lot easier for a simpleton like me if you were to add a footnote for dummies along the lines of

Well, we are in a bit of a no mans land today.. from a $440 position it may go up or down... Should it drop below $325 its a good buy as the graph extrapolation suggests it will rebound. On the other hand it may rise but it really need to break $370 to suggest we are enterring into a bull market..

That would be simple and really help me but, as its your post then i fully understand if you cant be arsed

Ta

The chines market and charts are more liquid. they make for far superior analysis. This is why I will nearly always chart the yuan, sorry. I will try give USD values for bitstamp and bfx when it is important but otherwise you need to look at the charts yourself and see the critical levels as they appear on the chinese charts.

EW can not be trusted on BFX charts. Due to leveraged trading, traders are able to trade a higher volume than they otherwise could elsewhere. This allows the chart to be painted with amplified movements that invalidate otherwise good counts. Not that this is always the case, but it's far too easy to have this happen.

[chessnut]

Hi, I am interested in your thread and taking it on board. To be honest it doesnt help that its in Yen as opposed to dollars as I am guessing most people on here relate to dollars therefore they have to do some mental conversion.

Once we get past that then I am struggling to get a grasp on your views/opinions.

It would be a lot easier for a simpleton like me if you were to add a footnote for dummies along the lines of

Well, we are in a bit of a no mans land today.. from a $440 position it may go up or down... Should it drop below $325 its a good buy as the graph extrapolation suggests it will rebound. On the other hand it may rise but it really need to break $370 to suggest we are enterring into a bull market..

That would be simple and really help me but, as its your post then i fully understand if you cant be arsed

Ta

The chines market and charts are more liquid. they make for far superior analysis. This is why I will nearly always chart the yuan, sorry. I will try give USD values for bitstamp and bfx when it is important but otherwise you need to look at the charts yourself and see the critical levels as they appear on the chinese charts.

EW can not be trusted on BFX charts. Due to leveraged trading, traders are able to trade a higher volume than they otherwise could elsewhere. This allows the chart to be painted with amplified movements that invalidate otherwise good counts. Not that this is always the case, but it's far too easy to have this happen.

Thanks Ryan,
and this is why I have to specify different levels for trading on BFX. I dont like having to do this for the smaller counts. there is a good reason why I left BFX for OKcoin.

[Arv1e]

Hi, I am interested in your thread and taking it on board. To be honest it doesnt help that its in Yen as opposed to dollars as I am guessing most people on here relate to dollars therefore they have to do some mental conversion.

Once we get past that then I am struggling to get a grasp on your views/opinions.

It would be a lot easier for a simpleton like me if you were to add a footnote for dummies along the lines of

Well, we are in a bit of a no mans land today.. from a $440 position it may go up or down... Should it drop below $325 its a good buy as the graph extrapolation suggests it will rebound. On the other hand it may rise but it really need to break $370 to suggest we are enterring into a bull market..

That would be simple and really help me but, as its your post then i fully understand if you cant be arsed

Ta

The chines market and charts are more liquid. they make for far superior analysis. This is why I will nearly always chart the yuan, sorry. I will try give USD values for bitstamp and bfx when it is important but otherwise you need to look at the charts yourself and see the critical levels as they appear on the chinese charts.

EW can not be trusted on BFX charts. Due to leveraged trading, traders are able to trade a higher volume than they otherwise could elsewhere. This allows the chart to be painted with amplified movements that invalidate otherwise good counts. Not that this is always the case, but it's far too easy to have this happen.

Thanks Ryan,
and this is why I have to specify different levels for trading on BFX. I dont like having to do this for the smaller counts. there is a good reason why I left BFX for OKcoin.

That makes total sense and thanks for your explanation. I can easily tap on the Huobi button on bitcoinwisdom.

The advice for dummies would still be useful. I have about 120 BTC which break even around $370. I am in as a long investment, as opposed to trading however I am more than happy to read and learn along the way and may try and increase my holding on the swings and roundabouts.

I did have a sell order at $420 a couple of weeks back with the aim to buy back in around $380 but it never quite got there.

[sidhujag]

in hindsight to your first few posts you seem to be getting it wrong every time... I would keep trying but I think EW analysis is flawed unless you add in other external factors.

You need to look closer and read more carefully. I have been having much success.

ok i promise to look again

I looked as promise... seems counts are good but timing is off... great job with the counts.. seems to pay to follow the larger counts because they seem to be following.. and the lower tf counts can act as good areas of interest to long. I will continue to follow quietly. BTW you have motivated me to open my own thread to track price.. I feel my way through without many indicators just experience and some Candlestick, S/R and trendlines with some intuition. Seems to work well... I will start it soon we can track each others performances over time.

[chessnut]

in hindsight to your first few posts you seem to be getting it wrong every time... I would keep trying but I think EW analysis is flawed unless you add in other external factors.

You need to look closer and read more carefully. I have been having much success.

ok i promise to look again

I looked as promise... seems counts are good but timing is off... great job with the counts.. seems to pay to follow the larger counts because they seem to be following.. and the lower tf counts can act as good areas of interest to long. I will continue to follow quietly.

thanks mate, hope you find it helpful in times to come.

[Remember remember the 5th of November]

I am not trolling, but so far what I've understood about EW is that it takes insane amount of work, and in the end it's never right. Ever....

So I ask you this, why still use it? MACD+RSI and some chart patterns seem to work infinitely better than this.

[chessnut]

Now wave iv seems complete, we can estimate a more accurate level for wave v. a bit lower than before, lets say 2040-2030.

We will have a reaction from this point. very possibly it will be the bottom, but there is just one chance that this is not over yet. see the highlighted circle. I think that is wave f-g of the extended trianlge. It could be wave i-ii. this means what we are seeing here is wave (v) of iii,

wave (iv) would top within wave ((iv)) so this is a breakout set up. At this point I suggest going long on a breakout through 2090 is a good strategy, or you could try cautiously to pick the bottom of wave (iii) if you are an active trader. you will need to place your stop under 2018 and accept it is a fairly risky trade.

The ambiguity raised here about wave i-ii is relevant now that we appear to be scratching out new lows. The count is behaving naturally so I expect this price action to be capped to 0.618 of hypothetical wave (iii)  which is a powerful number 2000. we realistically shouldnot get close to this but we should plan our trade accordingly. If you buy here you should feel comfortable with price action up to that point remembering that this is a long term position.

[lebing]

I am not trolling, but so far what I've understood about EW is that it takes insane amount of work, and in the end it's never right. Ever....

So I ask you this, why still use it? MACD+RSI and some chart patterns seem to work infinitely better than this.

thats actually not true.  chessnut has been fairly successful with it here in this thread on a ridiculously low time frames (imo) which is pretty hard to do. Rynindaclem has another thread where he was pretty spot on and lucif (now masterluc) has been masterfully calling tops for years. it shouldnt be used alone IMO, but waves are very solid TA

[chessnut]

I am not trolling, but so far what I've understood about EW is that it takes insane amount of work, and in the end it's never right. Ever....

So I ask you this, why still use it? MACD+RSI and some chart patterns seem to work infinitely better than this.

Elliot wave is closely tied to irrational behaviour of the crowd. it is no secret that sentiment is the best historical edge a trader can have in predicting price action. Macd or rsi are not linked to sentiment or irrational behaviour. using our understanding of fibonacci ratios and how they must occur in all complex systems we can describe in detail likely pathways that the market may take from any given point, this helps us seamlessly adapt to and understand changes in the market. Unlike the macd or rsi elliot wave is a leading indicator, not a lagging indicator. this is critical in a system where buying low and selling high is a key philosophy.

I must disagree that macd and, rsi or any arbitrary pattern work better than EW analysis. I know first hand that it is a very rewarding area of study.

[notme]

Triangles are terminal moves, it is a rule that has never failed me.

Well then you are clearly new to Bitcoin.  In past ramps up, there has been triangle after triangle all breaking to the upside for months without terminating the trend.  Maybe that has changed now that the market is much larger, but I'd be careful having such certainty about any pattern.

the demands of ew triangles are different to those simple wedges you are referring to. I am not new to bitcoin.

Then can you please enlighten me as to what the difference is between a wedge and an "ew triangle"?

[chessnut]

Triangles are terminal moves, it is a rule that has never failed me.

Well then you are clearly new to Bitcoin.  In past ramps up, there has been triangle after triangle all breaking to the upside for months without terminating the trend.  Maybe that has changed now that the market is much larger, but I'd be careful having such certainty about any pattern.

the demands of ew triangles are different to those simple wedges you are referring to. I am not new to bitcoin.

Then can you please enlighten me as to what the difference is between a wedge and an "ew triangle"?

an ew triangle is a five wave structure, not a three wave structure (like a simple wedge) that must be composed of non impulsive abc's. at least two of the up or down waves within an EW triangle are of the proportion 1/0.618.

[eboard10]

chessnut, do you think we have completed wave B or is there still the potential for one more leg down?

I was expecting the price to fall to at least $330. If we take your yellow i and ii as valid then we should be expecting one last drop.

[chessnut]

chessnut, do you think we have completed wave B or is there still the potential for one more leg down?

I was expecting the price to fall to at least $330. If we take your yellow i and ii as valid then we should be expecting one last drop.

The yellow i-ii is only a precaution because the stronger count is an a-b-c-d-e-f-g triangle. I say this because the hypothetical wave i does not fit nicely into impulsive guidelines. The harder evidence will be when we pass 2090, until then we should be prepared for the last little wave capped by 2000, but I think its also fair to believe we have bottomed. The counts on the western exchanges support that we have bottomed, hypothetical wave i-ii in yellow do not fit in there.

[chessnut]

With a stop loss at 2045, this breakout trade will be the one of the most robust, high confidence and best risk/reward trades I could offer to you as an EW analyst.

This is a medium term hold position, we are targeting cerca 3000yuan, $470

Im posting this in a hurry, price is climbing like nuts.... Please dont panick. it is better to buy on a dip than to chase the price, even if you have to buy in higher. You should still be able to pick up some bitcoin below 2100.