NEW:


Trendline update, including analysis in my latest post.

Calculate today's trendline price HERE




R source: http://pastebin.com/peG2wg5p.
[chart courtesy to tonico/minimalB]

This thread is an attempt to generate an exchange rate graph that goes all the way back to January, 2009. The datapoints are monthly averages or typical prices as follows:

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014
Jan	.005	.005	.39	6.11	16.31	818
Feb	.005	.005	.90	5.06	25.93	659
Mar	.005	.005	.85	4.88	58.14	594
Apr	.005	.005	1.50	4.98	115.09	461
May	.005	.005	6.38	5.06	112.81	486
Jun	.005	.008	18.55	6.03	108.39
Jul	.005	.060	14.10	8.04	83.80
Aug	.005	.065	9.75	10.88	105.80
Sep	.005	.062	5.76	11.46	124.33
Oct	.005	.106	3.30	11.58	156.50
Nov	.005	.27	2.60	11.51	517.00
Dec	.005	.24	3.51	13.33	799.00

1/2009-5/2010 Attempt to find data of actual OTC trades. The trades found, happened between 0.0010-0.0054. We do not currently know exactly if there was a trend to either direction during this time, or if trades were isolated. Assumed flat 0.005 for the purposes of this analysis but will change if appropriate.
6/2010 Transition to Mt.Gox.
7/2010-5/2013 Mt.Gox weekly volume weighted average prices' average per month.
6/2013- BitStamp's weekly volume weighted average prices' average per month. At approximately mid-May, 2013, Mt.Gox started losing market share to Bitstamp and it's price started to diverge. Therefore the crossover in prices is already in the beginning of June, although Mt.Gox had a larger volume until October.

This information is useful e.g. in bitcoin portfolio management. If the price rises high over the trendline, you should be careful in purchases and even consider fishing the top and selling some coins if you do active management.

Conversely in situations where the price is already behind the trendline, you should be aggressive to invest all you can, since major drops are improbable and the risk of large moves to the upside is more pronounced.

In this model, the average growth rate is:
per hour: 0.029%
per day: 0.69%
per week: 5.0%
per month: 23%
per year: 1140% (12.4x)

To anyone, if we could get a graph over actual prices, and then an extension of the regression line past where we are today into say, 2014, I'd greatly appreciate that

Luckily 2/3 is a gross overestimate..

Still, selling anything without actual use for the proceeds is generally stupid. I bought 5000oz of silver but I already regret the deal because I would much rather have 1000+ additional BTC using today's exchange rate.

The silver is merchandise (Maple Leaf 1oz coins), anyone interested? (100oz minimum, EU dlwy, cheapest in EU)

Thanks for the numbers. Is always great to do summary sometimes.

I still think at some point this growing ratio will drop to lower numbers, I think it can't sostain after big investors join the boat in 1-2 years.

I like to spend them whenever I have time for a conversation about bitcoin, but then it is pretty easy for me to get more as I don't pay much for shipping. 

In my understanding, number of bitcoin users now is only 350,000, less than a million at least.

When it reaches 100 million, we are still in early adopter phase in global scale.

It is very important to realize that all growth has its limits, and the limit for bitcoin growth is that it replaces all other liquid wealth. That would lead the purchasing power to be in several million$ range. A more conservative scenario, that of replacing gold, would put the price at $300k/BTC.

Good brainwash - $300k is now "conservative" as Chamath estimated $0.5-$1M... 

Meh, it's a little disheartening to hear people think that way. They're clearly thinking along the lines of "That means my 50 BTC will be $50,000! No. Way!". But all that's saying to me is how overvalued $50,000 is to them, not how crazily Bitcoin is appreciating. Reminds me of being a kid visiting Italy, 1,000,000 lira was the equivalent of about $50. I've always understood since being that young that a million of anything makes you ask the question, "yeah, but a million of what, exactly?".

still is*