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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1649610 times)
Ichthyo
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March 22, 2013, 09:38:55 PM
 #15121

Just wow!

on Bitfinex, right now almost the entirely lending market is sucked empty. Traders have taken loans over 200k USD. Only some offers over 4000% APY are left.
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adamstgBit
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March 22, 2013, 09:40:55 PM
 #15122

Just wow!

on Bitfinex, right now almost the entirely lending market is sucked empty. Traders have taken loans over 200k USD. Only some offers over 4000% APY are left.

long squeeze ahead?

WikileaksDude
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March 22, 2013, 09:41:44 PM
 #15123

Just wow!

on Bitfinex, right now almost the entirely lending market is sucked empty. Traders have taken loans over 200k USD. Only some offers over 4000% APY are left.

long squeeze ahead?

i would say so...

mccorvic
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March 22, 2013, 09:54:16 PM
 #15124

What I found funny/interesting was earlier today the different exchanges were moving at relatively different speeds from one another but as soon as Gox took a hit they all instantly followed suit.

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Beta-coiner1
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March 22, 2013, 09:55:06 PM
 #15125

wait for it..... Wait for it!


fuck it, dont wait, buy buy buy  Grin
But..but you're suppose to be bearish! Wink

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Ichthyo
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March 22, 2013, 09:56:31 PM
 #15126

on Bitfinex, right now almost the entirely lending market is sucked empty. Traders have taken loans over 200k USD.

long squeeze ahead?

I'd guess rather a lot speculating on the flash reversal after the dip.
If you buy in at $69 it needs to drop to $55.2 before you get force liquidated (1:5 leverage).
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March 22, 2013, 09:56:56 PM
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Guessed it or caused it? Isnt this the same guy who posted the 10000BTC Mtgox screenie?
We might have a new manipulator. With enough coins and cash you can cause a few spikes and drops that you "predicted" a few hours earlier until people take you seriously, then use that credibility to cause movements with just words...
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March 22, 2013, 10:01:43 PM
 #15128

Let the spam buying begin! Calves, fill my cups with your tears! Blame gox lag for your inability to hold your coin! Stampede unto thee own walls of regret!

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rpietila
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March 22, 2013, 10:03:10 PM
 #15129

What I found funny/interesting was earlier today the different exchanges were moving at relatively different speeds from one another but as soon as Gox took a hit they all instantly followed suit.

An entity interested in selling, can easily transfer bitcoins to all exchanges in an hour and sell in concert. Due to the limitations of the banking system, it takes a week to do the same with fiat.

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March 22, 2013, 10:04:27 PM
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Guessed it or caused it? Isnt this the same guy who posted the 10000BTC Mtgox screenie?
We might have a new manipulator. With enough coins and cash you can cause a few spikes and drops that you "predicted" a few hours earlier until people take you seriously, then use that credibility to cause movements with just words...

I saw something interesting today.. The price was hoovering between 71.9 to 72.2 ish, there was quite a few bids right between 71 to 71.7ish, all upwards of 100 BTC. Then suddenly all of them were gone. I instinctively felt something was going to happen at that point, and then just a few moments later, a sellout cleaning it out down to 71, admittedely not with much volume going on, since all the bigger bids was removed. That was not coincidental, so it seems to me that someone tested the market to see if there was any reaction, then the price went back up, and then we had the major downfall.
Herodes
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March 22, 2013, 10:05:20 PM
 #15131

Guessed it or caused it? Isnt this the same guy who posted the 10000BTC Mtgox screenie?
We might have a new manipulator. With enough coins and cash you can cause a few spikes and drops that you "predicted" a few hours earlier until people take you seriously, then use that credibility to cause movements with just words...

HAha - awesome! And then, after he called bluff once, nobody would believe him anymore!
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March 22, 2013, 10:06:21 PM
 #15132

Let the spam buying begin! Calves, fill my cups with your tears! Blame gox lag for your inability to hold your coin! Stampede unto thee own walls of regret!

This is actually pretty correct.  We've all sold a bitcoin.     

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March 22, 2013, 10:08:06 PM
 #15133

The bitfinex lending US is only up a little.  It was 192k USD before the crash.

I think the lending ratio of USD to BTC is interesting.  200k USD to 200 BTC.  When converted to USD that is a 14:1.  
The ratio keeps going higher as most of the bears were force liquidated (previously it was around 1000 BTC).  The lowest I've seen the ratio was close to 1:1 and that didn't last long.


Don't day trade.
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March 22, 2013, 10:10:03 PM
 #15134

HAha - awesome! And then, after he called bluff once, nobody would believe him anymore!

Except that his bluff might well work, and more than once.
Even if/when it doesnt, plenty of people still take advice from "analysts" whos batting average doesnt exceed statistical randomness.
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March 22, 2013, 10:14:14 PM
 #15135

The bitfinex lending US is only up a little.  It was 192k USD before the crash.

I think the lending ratio of USD to BTC is interesting.  200k USD to 200 BTC.  When converted to USD that is a 14:1.  
The ratio keeps going higher as most of the bears were force liquidated (previously it was around 1000 BTC).  The lowest I've seen the ratio was close to 1:1 and that didn't last long.



So how does this bitfinex lending work?  If I read it correctly, you only make money as a lender if the person you have lent to profits?  If he looses, then you just get back the original sum?
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March 22, 2013, 10:20:17 PM
 #15136

Bitfinex: you lend money and get paid back whether or not the person makes profits.   If they are losing money, the system does a margin call before they go bankrupt - so the system is able to pay you back.

Where it gets very difficult is if MtGox lags out during the middle of a crash.

Don't day trade.
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March 22, 2013, 10:23:57 PM
 #15137

Bitfinex: you lend money and get paid back whether or not the person makes profits.   If they are losing money, the system does a margin call before they go bankrupt - so the system is able to pay you back.

Where it gets very difficult is if MtGox lags out during the middle of a crash.

but do you get lending interest if they get a margin call?
adamstgBit
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March 22, 2013, 10:31:34 PM
 #15138

Bitfinex: you lend money and get paid back whether or not the person makes profits.   If they are losing money, the system does a margin call before they go bankrupt - so the system is able to pay you back.

Where it gets very difficult is if MtGox lags out during the middle of a crash.

but do you get lending interest if they get a margin call?

i would think that, part of the calculation for weather or not to do a margin call, includes the interest they owe

so yes.

Ichthyo
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March 22, 2013, 10:58:05 PM
 #15139

Bitfinex: you lend money and get paid back whether or not the person makes profits.   If they are losing money, the system does a margin call before they go bankrupt - so the system is able to pay you back.

but do you get lending interest if they get a margin call?

Yes. The creator of Bitfinex has pointed this out several times. Once a position gets a margin call, the Bitfinex platform is taking the risk for getting that position actually liquidated. Of course, this means, that in case of an extreme situation, when the market price slips away catastrophically, the platform can go bankrupt. This is an essential risk of any Contract-for-Difference platform.  Thus, for a lender, this is the essential counterparty risk.

What the platform can do is to have some kind of insurance contract. And if I understand the latest announcement(*) from the Platform operator correct, he is currently negotiating with some investors exactly for this purpose. He is also about to get this thing properly incorporated. Right now it is labelled as "beta", but has taken on some momentum during this rally.


(*) see this message in the ProjectDevelopment section
thefiniteidea
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March 22, 2013, 11:30:57 PM
 #15140

in the event that any of you get drunk (adam) i have created a thread specifically for you (and me and him and her). i hope that many an inebriated bitcoiner will find themselves among friends here. it will be a village of comfort and openness. you may post as many mt gox wall pics as you fancy. or posts on squirrels or balloons. a wonderful pillow of sleep and love and bitcoin desires awaits. no man or woman will be turned away. children will be crafted here. lives shaped. family's rearranged for the better. women turn into females. a world of soberless thoughts and drunken misunderstandings.

a beautiful world.  Cry

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=156627.msg1660468#msg1660468

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