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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1692358 times)
randomguy7
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March 23, 2013, 12:34:08 AM
 #15141

This is going to be one hell of a weekend dip.  Good luck everyone.  Sorry to anyone who bought over $10.

I know this is a few pages ago but: loool Grin

Does the "proudhon-says-here-we're-topping-thread" still get updated?
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mccorvic
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March 23, 2013, 12:37:20 AM
 #15142

This is going to be one hell of a weekend dip.  Good luck everyone.  Sorry to anyone who bought over $10.

I know this is a few pages ago but: loool Grin

Does the "proudhon-says-here-we're-topping-thread" still get updated?

I just ran this through my proudhon decoder ring.  Here's the translation: "The rally continues Monday. Can anyone spare a bitcoin?"

Offering Video/Audio Editing Services since 2011 - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77932.0
adamstgBit
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March 23, 2013, 12:40:31 AM
 #15143

This is going to be one hell of a weekend dip.  Good luck everyone.  Sorry to anyone who bought over $10.

I know this is a few pages ago but: loool Grin

Does the "proudhon-says-here-we're-topping-thread" still get updated?
i'm pretty sure proudhon just says random bearishness for lolz these days


in other news, bitcoin will be going down under 20$ very soon, everyone send all your money to mtgox (or the likes) and pray to wtv god you believe in.  Wink

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March 23, 2013, 12:49:10 AM
 #15144

Bitfinex: you lend money and get paid back whether or not the person makes profits.   If they are losing money, the system does a margin call before they go bankrupt - so the system is able to pay you back.

but do you get lending interest if they get a margin call?

Yes. The creator of Bitfinex has pointed this out several times. Once a position gets a margin call, the Bitfinex platform is taking the risk for getting that position actually liquidated. Of course, this means, that in case of an extreme situation, when the market price slips away catastrophically, the platform can go bankrupt. This is an essential risk of any Contract-for-Difference platform.  Thus, for a lender, this is the essential counterparty risk.

What the platform can do is to have some kind of insurance contract. And if I understand the latest announcement(*) from the Platform operator correct, he is currently negotiating with some investors exactly for this purpose. He is also about to get this thing properly incorporated. Right now it is labelled as "beta", but has taken on some momentum during this rally.


(*) see this message in the ProjectDevelopment section

Thanks man, good information.  Seems like an interesting platform, but proper insurance is a very desirable thing in a market as volatile as bitcoin (especially with gox lagging out at criticial times and all).
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March 23, 2013, 12:53:37 AM
 #15145

Bitfinex: you lend money and get paid back whether or not the person makes profits.   If they are losing money, the system does a margin call before they go bankrupt - so the system is able to pay you back.

but do you get lending interest if they get a margin call?

Yes. The creator of Bitfinex has pointed this out several times. Once a position gets a margin call, the Bitfinex platform is taking the risk for getting that position actually liquidated. Of course, this means, that in case of an extreme situation, when the market price slips away catastrophically, the platform can go bankrupt. This is an essential risk of any Contract-for-Difference platform.  Thus, for a lender, this is the essential counterparty risk.

What the platform can do is to have some kind of insurance contract. And if I understand the latest announcement(*) from the Platform operator correct, he is currently negotiating with some investors exactly for this purpose. He is also about to get this thing properly incorporated. Right now it is labelled as "beta", but has taken on some momentum during this rally.


(*) see this message in the ProjectDevelopment section

Thanks man, good information.  Seems like an interesting platform, but proper insurance is a very desirable thing in a market as volatile as bitcoin (especially with gox lagging out at criticial times and all).

"soon"... virtex will offer shorting, and you will be able to lend your bitcoins (with interest) on havelockinvestments.com

not sure how it will all work, but defiantly something to look forward too.  Smiley

randomguy7
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March 23, 2013, 12:58:26 AM
 #15146

He probably went all in a long time ago, like when we went back up to USD 3 from USD 2 in 2011 (if my memory doesn't fail me).

Also he's my favorite/most-reliable rally indicator, I would go all in if I wasn't already Grin

But as a serious note, I think a little correction might be in the cards, maybe whiping away last few days gains. I'm not going to bet on it though, the few extra bucks aren't worth the risk.
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March 23, 2013, 01:01:36 AM
 #15147

If I am not mistaken the price seems pretty settled between 68-72 right now after the bump to 74.9.I suspect we'll be hitting 80 by next week.

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March 23, 2013, 01:03:28 AM
 #15148

He probably went all in a long time ago, like when we went back up to USD 3 from USD 2 in 2011 (if my memory doesn't fail me).

Also he's my favorite/most-reliable rally indicator, I would go all in if I wasn't already Grin

But as a serious note, I think a little correction might be in the cards, maybe whiping away last few days gains. I'm not going to bet on it though, the few extra bucks aren't worth the risk.

$80 by/on Tuesday seems very likely to me.  
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March 23, 2013, 01:07:32 AM
 #15149


Guessed it or caused it? Isnt this the same guy who posted the 10000BTC Mtgox screenie?
We might have a new manipulator. With enough coins and cash you can cause a few spikes and drops that you "predicted" a few hours earlier until people take you seriously, then use that credibility to cause movements with just words...

Or get screwed by the market and lose all your money while no one cares about you any longer.

Seriously, if he got only 10000BTC and wanted to play with the market I would call him a dumbass.

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adamstgBit
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March 23, 2013, 04:44:54 AM
 #15150

I believe we have a little bit of a situation here going on with the price... looks like another major drop is about to take place.... Undecided

this could very well be the start of a short live down trend.

the news has been beyond extraordinarily good, so if a down trend does appear this will be one hell of an opportunity   

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March 23, 2013, 04:58:44 AM
 #15151

The recent price action is very bearish. We might be testing $62 or $63 soon. I hope not.
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March 23, 2013, 05:02:51 AM
 #15152

The recent price action is very bearish. We might be testing $62 or $63 soon. I hope not.
A climb to $75 and then a pretty typical correction is 'very bearish?'
tripper22
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March 23, 2013, 05:05:51 AM
 #15153

The recent price action is very bearish. We might be testing $62 or $63 soon. I hope not.
A climb to $75 and then a pretty typical correction is 'very bearish?'

Notice the "recent price action" part? Grin Long term it's still looking goooood.
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March 23, 2013, 05:26:11 AM
 #15154

The recent price action is very bearish. We might be testing $62 or $63 soon. I hope not.
A climb to $75 and then a pretty typical correction is 'very bearish?'

Some people seem to think that after the market has run a marathon it can't take a breather before starting off again.
Must be the same people who moonlight at Foxconn managing the assembly-line workers....

lebing
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March 23, 2013, 07:02:22 AM
 #15155

The recent price action is very bearish. We might be testing $62 or $63 soon. I hope not.
A climb to $75 and then a pretty typical correction is 'very bearish?'

Some people seem to think that after the market has run a marathon it can't take a breather before starting off again.
Must be the same people who moonlight at Foxconn managing the assembly-line workers....

It is a bit strange from the current trend though. For the last few months, when it takes a breather, it goes sideways, not down.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
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oakpacific
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March 23, 2013, 07:13:52 AM
 #15156

The recent price action is very bearish. We might be testing $62 or $63 soon. I hope not.
A climb to $75 and then a pretty typical correction is 'very bearish?'

Some people seem to think that after the market has run a marathon it can't take a breather before starting off again.
Must be the same people who moonlight at Foxconn managing the assembly-line workers....

It is a bit strange from the current trend though. For the last few months, when it takes a breather, it goes sideways, not down.

The run was unprecedented, so the bid side is quite thin, as no one would have thought they could buy at those price points, otherwise the down volume is pretty lame.

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Bowjob
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March 23, 2013, 07:22:11 AM
 #15157

Down to 65. Ouch

It seemed like a good idea at the time.
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March 23, 2013, 07:23:10 AM
 #15158

The recent price action is very bearish. We might be testing $62 or $63 soon. I hope not.
A climb to $75 and then a pretty typical correction is 'very bearish?'

Some people seem to think that after the market has run a marathon it can't take a breather before starting off again.
Must be the same people who moonlight at Foxconn managing the assembly-line workers....

It is a bit strange from the current trend though. For the last few months, when it takes a breather, it goes sideways, not down.

The run was unprecedented, so the bid side is quite thin, as no one would have thought they could buy at those price points, otherwise the down volume is pretty lame.

What I am thinking it will certainly dip to $60 but even $50 seems pretty slim chance, it would require both:
- a seller willing to sell 10-20kBTC at once, for a price less than what he would have gotten when selling to strength
- all incoming funds to the exchanges stalled for 2 days (like they do on weekends  Wink )

The first requirement is met if we are talking about a sacrificial seller, a manipulator, or a panicker. There are not too many of any of those left in 10k+ category. The second one happens every week, and should be corrected by the market. As long as the rise only happens on weekdays, we can safely conclude that bitcoin rises due to fresh buying.




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March 23, 2013, 07:23:30 AM
 #15159

There is no 'down' for Bitcoin until $1,000, besides breach of the protocol. Buy and hold.

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tripper22
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March 23, 2013, 07:28:45 AM
 #15160

If it breaks down through $63 look for support at around $57. If it breaks below that we will be looking at strong support at around $47. It's a long way down to $47 though.
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