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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1648960 times)
nagnagnag2
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April 13, 2013, 10:06:41 AM
 #22481

Mtgox has permits in Japan to run this fucking lagshow.

Can someone tell me if they are allowed to have their exchange open during this DDOS, according to the permits?

 
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April 13, 2013, 10:09:53 AM
 #22482

Mtgox has permits in Japan to run this fucking lagshow.

Can someone tell me if they are allowed to have their exchange open during this DDOS, according to the permits?

 

Wow. MtGox has permits? Smiley

labestiol
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April 13, 2013, 10:23:09 AM
 #22483

looks like lots of coins have changed hands in the last phase of the dip...


Indeed. Yesterday saw the 24h all time high for bitcoin volume on MtGox with 550k BTC, beating the previous one at 400k BTC during the bottom at 2$.
 

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April 13, 2013, 11:04:23 AM
 #22484

I've been out in the real world since yesterday. Whats up? I can't log into gox, is that for everyone?

more or less retired.
just1nmc
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April 13, 2013, 11:06:34 AM
 #22485

I've been out in the real world since yesterday. Whats up? I can't log into gox, is that for everyone?

Works fine for me
just1nmc
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April 13, 2013, 11:09:54 AM
 #22486

Still holding above $100.

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April 13, 2013, 11:10:34 AM
 #22487

...



In this market cycle, Where are we now with bitcoins , ....according to you



Well IMO we are either at beartrap or despair, but as others have said this graph can be really applied to many things and its relevance to BTC has to be questioned. The main problem being we haven't been through all of the background phases of the chart i.e investments, public etc. Which if you go by my guess' means that we are at beartrap, but the pattern of the line looks awfully similar to what we have witnessed meaning we could be at despair. Who the fuck knows where we are jumping from 90-100, but if you take either of those predictions then at least the only way is up eh.
MikeH
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April 13, 2013, 11:10:38 AM
 #22488

I tought that I would be smart if I placed a sell order for 1 BTC at 117.9.

Well, as it turned out, the sell order was at 1.0 BTC for the volume of 117.9   Embarrassed

So all my coins were sold....  Shocked

these would have sold at market value right?  mtgox has normal exchange rules regarding min sell and max buy price?
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April 13, 2013, 12:22:59 PM
 #22489

... I just wanted to bring this back into peoples heads since we are looking at charts, or supposed to be, but this is looking awefully similar to the 30d charts of BTC




OK,  with this image being so prevalent I'm guessing I'm not the first to break it down a bit to see if there is anything of value in comparative terms to be gained from it but I'll have a crack at it anyway...

What would one expect the volume to look like on the rapid drop?  Assuming the 'mean' (I'll get to that) represents a stock value reflective of the underlying asset value/expected return then should one not expect the total of the sales for the duration of the total drop to be somewhere in the region of the total purchases from take-off (plus the amount that takes it under the 'mean')?  Even if it is nowhere near that I would still expect to see immense amounts of volume from those with 'fear' and 'capitulation' getting out with no intention to return.  In other words if this was what was going on with Bitcoin one should expect to see the biggest volume of sales coincide with the biggest drops in price.

But what if most of the people and most of the substantial holdings from the various stages of the build-up just step out of the market altogether for the drop - or sell speculatively a small proportion of one's holding upon seeing what's happening with the intention of buying back in - and maybe even bringing even more money to the table towards the bottom?  Again, where would one expect the main volume to be seen then?

Oh wait...

looks like lots of coins have changed hands in the last phase of the dip...


Indeed. Yesterday saw the 24h all time high for bitcoin volume on MtGox with 550k BTC, beating the previous one at 400k BTC during the bottom at 2$.
 

As labestiol points out the biggest volume here is as it hits the bottom.  Let's zoom in a bit...

We should be wary of reading too much into this apart from anything else because the lag, MtGox going off-line and activity around that.

However, it looks to me like it didn't take much to trigger the initial drop and the volume came in with buying pressure when it was first thought it had bottomed and was about to start going back up.  Likewise I think, (though not so obvious*) with subsequent drops.  In virtually all cases (other than immediately after MtGox came back on line) the big buying has been on the bottom or on the rise.

This suggests to me a vast amount never got near the market because:
  • It's held not by speculators in the first place but by those more interested in the bigger picture;
  • It's held by speculators who would not touch a fast-moving market run on a broken trading engine with a barge pole;**
  • Their bid orders were pulled off the order book as soon as it became obvious this was no mere blip in order to wait until the price got low enough to buy back in.

I would venture to suggest (accepting the iffy accuracy of the picture due to MtGox) that the market was moved immensely by a small number of people and not a large amount of coin.

In which case why is it not climbing today as rapidly as it fell?  Simply I would venture to suggest because there's no need for it to.  There's no rush.  Bitcoin isn't going anywhere in a hurry.  There are still some who believe bitcoin has a value related to its use and who believe that to be lower than what it is.  And they - along with the nervous who got bitten over the last few days - are reluctant to jump in too soon.  But Bitcoin's use isn't dependent on it having a value of a particular size.

And this gets me onto the last point.  That first illustration is to do with stocks.  The 'mean' is not a mathematical mean.  It suggests there is an underlying value backed up by the company's assets, customers, trade and dividends.  Bitcoin has none of the above.  Those who say it has 'no intrinsic value' are to a surprising degree correct so it could have no value in principle.  However in order to be of use it has to have 'some' value in terms of fiat for people sending money abroad or spending it with service providers to be able to swap in and out of fiat.  But for those purposes as I said it doesn't matter how big or small that 'value' is.

The 'mean' in the illustration represents a steady line upwards but unless the vertical axis is on a logarithmic scale this can't represent the adoption of bitcoin either - not by numbers of users, numbers of merchants, number of transactions or of anything.

So I would venture to suggest 'bring[ing] this back into peoples heads' is not helpful seeing as it has as far as I can see nothing useful to add to the discussion other than responses illustrating the multitude of reasons why it is so useless when comparing to usd/btc charts.


*Why I think it is not so obvious is that people were trying to get back in at every sign it may be bottoming out. 

** I'm still struggling to get the mentality of those whose reaction to seeing a broken trading was to panic and try and sell on it.  If they really don't understand Bitcoin well enough to see nothing was going to happen to it and that the the only option they could see was to trading blind on a market that happend some time ago then as harsh as it sounds maybe it's not such a bad thing they lost their shirts and went.

If you have a machine on 24/7 why not have a full Bitcoin client running on it to support the network?
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April 13, 2013, 12:23:38 PM
 #22490





Well IMO we are either at beartrap or despair, but as others have said this graph can be really applied to many things and its relevance to BTC has to be questioned. The main problem being we haven't been through all of the background phases of the chart i.e investments, public etc. Which if you go by my guess' means that we are at beartrap, but the pattern of the line looks awfully similar to what we have witnessed meaning we could be at despair. Who the fuck knows where we are jumping from 90-100, but if you take either of those predictions then at least the only way is up eh.

Bulltrap totally out of question?
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April 13, 2013, 12:31:16 PM
 #22491

...



In this market cycle, Where are we now with bitcoins , ....according to you



Well IMO we are either at beartrap or despair, but as others have said this graph can be really applied to many things and its relevance to BTC has to be questioned. The main problem being we haven't been through all of the background phases of the chart i.e investments, public etc. Which if you go by my guess' means that we are at beartrap, but the pattern of the line looks awfully similar to what we have witnessed meaning we could be at despair. Who the fuck knows where we are jumping from 90-100, but if you take either of those predictions then at least the only way is up eh.

You will see this same chart over and over again on different scales. In a way we could very well be at both. It is just the perspective.

Looking at these charts trying to predict the future is wasted energy. You could as well open a fortune cookie to see what the price is going to do.

You should look at the long term and mid-term fundamentals and these are both looking great. The last couple of weeks millions of people heard about Bitcoin for the first time, thousands of them opening trading accounts. According to the MtGox figures there are 19000 people a day opening new accounts bringing in millions of fiat. Sure they are spooked by the events of the last days, but when the price climbs they'll rush to get in again.
 
In the long term we see tremendous efforts by investors and companies creating a better Bitcoin infrastructure. We all know the potential this technology has and it good to see people are working hard trying to realize this. Bitcoins were priced well above $200 some days ago, they should be priced over $2000, so IMHO I wouldn't waste a second and buy now, as sellers are practically giving them away for free.

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April 13, 2013, 12:33:01 PM
 #22492

What if we are still in the bubble? We had some crashes before the last one, wich recovered very fast, but some saw mt.gox lag stopping everything. What if this last crash is like them, just bigger because mt.gox lagged much more and was unavailable for like a day or more? This would mean that crash will recover soon. Price is already increasing.
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April 13, 2013, 12:39:52 PM
 #22493

What if we are still in the bubble? We had some crashes before the last one, wich recovered very fast, but some saw mt.gox lag stopping everything. What if this last crash is like them, just bigger because mt.gox lagged much more and was unavailable for like a day or more? This would mean that crash will recover soon. Price is already increasing.

You mean that the bubble froze mid-burst like this (I never tire of looking at that photo)?



If so then what do you think are the reasons its bursting did not continue or is not continuing to accelerate (let alone show signs of recovery) right now?

If you believe it was a bursting bubble then is the assumption it 'should' have burst back to zero? to single figures? to where?  And on what basis do you believe this lower figure is a more 'valid' or 'correct' evaluation than the price currently traded?

If you have a machine on 24/7 why not have a full Bitcoin client running on it to support the network?
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April 13, 2013, 12:41:44 PM
 #22494

What if we are still in the bubble? We had some crashes before the last one, wich recovered very fast, but some saw mt.gox lag stopping everything. What if this last crash is like them, just bigger because mt.gox lagged much more and was unavailable for like a day or more? This would mean that crash will recover soon. Price is already increasing.

I suspect we will continue for a short time on the previous exponential trend getting back on track at around $180/$190.

It went parabolic before on around April 7th this will probably happen all over again in the next couple of weeks.
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April 13, 2013, 01:03:17 PM
 #22495

My reason is that this crash was like the crashes of the previous weeks, only bigger cause of mtgox epic lag and being closed for a day. Were (and are)we in a bubble? Dunno, you only know if it is a bubble after it pop. But the price is already increasing, just like the previous crashes. If this was a bubble pop then price should drop, not increase
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April 13, 2013, 01:22:14 PM
 #22496



So I would venture to suggest 'bring[ing] this back into peoples heads' is not helpful seeing as it has as far as I can see nothing useful to add to the discussion other than responses illustrating the multitude of reasons why it is so useless when comparing to usd/btc charts.


I have to say that you, judging your response, seem to have at this point a better understanding/ability to critique said charts. I agree with most of that you have to say with regard to the usefulness of the said chart,  as I mentioned in one of the prior posts I was simply judging it from a quasi-aesthetic stance. Seeing similar patterns etc. I have to say if everyone put as much thought into stuff they post onto here as you did then this would be infinitely more educating than it is at times.

...

Looking at these charts trying to predict the future is wasted energy. You could as well open a fortune cookie to see what the price is going to do.


I couldnt agree with you more, but as humans we are trained to see patterns in (all) things. This is the speculation thread though so if we are gonna be using fortune cookies anywhere then no better place than here. But to reiterate you are right it is somewhat useless, which also lead to me not directly giving a definitive answer in relation to the 'where are we now on there' question.
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April 13, 2013, 01:23:31 PM
 #22497

What if we are still in the bubble? We had some crashes before the last one, wich recovered very fast, but some saw mt.gox lag stopping everything. What if this last crash is like them, just bigger because mt.gox lagged much more and was unavailable for like a day or more? This would mean that crash will recover soon. Price is already increasing.

It will be a series of endless bubbles, forever. Welcome to the profit-rollercoster. Buy low, sell high, panic, profit, rinse, wash, repeat.

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April 13, 2013, 01:24:06 PM
 #22498

Am I the only one here worried about
btc24 being "momentarily not available"
for the past 16 hours

retirement fund : 1NBM5DM317RfWsHXKUfPUDtba2scavpPoB
GreekGeek
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April 13, 2013, 01:35:10 PM
 #22499

Am I the only one here worried about
btc24 being "momentarily not available"
for the past 16 hours

I heard they got shut down. Aml violations and no permits. I have no source.


what about my coins?

retirement fund : 1NBM5DM317RfWsHXKUfPUDtba2scavpPoB
just1nmc
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April 13, 2013, 01:36:48 PM
 #22500

Am I the only one here worried about
btc24 being "momentarily not available"
for the past 16 hours

I heard they got shut down. Aml violations and no permits. I have no source.


what about my coins?

It's all right on their homepage...
https://bitcoin-24.com
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