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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1651915 times)
Gordonium
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April 13, 2013, 08:09:25 AM
 #22461

Having been a long time reader of this read/forum, probably too long/too much time spent and lurking on here for a while. Just wanted to say that many of you provide some brilliantly comedic moments as well as some insightful comments.

For what it is worth I am Long/Bullish. But aware of the potential for shit to hit the fan, having seen it grow from nearly the start.

Also, I just wanted to bring this back into peoples heads since we are looking at charts, or supposed to be, but this is looking awefully similar to the 30d charts of BTC




the 30d chart could also fit right in at the "first sell-off"

That is how I see it too.

Yeah. Its just that we already had the "media attention", the public investing, the enthusiasm and the Greed. I guess what you people are doing could even be called "denial" Wink

Anyway, I cashed out at 230 and 170 and will wait for the low double digits.

Are you serious? There hasn't even been many institutional investors year, we are just coming to that phase right now. Even that in a forum like this it might seem that Bitcoin is all over media, but truth is that most of the people, even the ones working in finance or it-sector haven't even heard about Bitcoin.
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Ares
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April 13, 2013, 08:09:44 AM
 #22462

Having been a long time reader of this read/forum, probably too long/too much time spent and lurking on here for a while. Just wanted to say that many of you provide some brilliantly comedic moments as well as some insightful comments.

For what it is worth I am Long/Bullish. But aware of the potential for shit to hit the fan, having seen it grow from nearly the start.

Also, I just wanted to bring this back into peoples heads since we are looking at charts, or supposed to be, but this is looking awefully similar to the 30d charts of BTC




the 30d chart could also fit right in at the "first sell-off"

That is how I see it too.

Yeah. Its just that we already had the "media attention", the public investing, the enthusiasm and the Greed. I guess what you people are doing could even be called "denial" Wink

Anyway, I cashed out at 230 and 170 and will wait for the low double digits.

We had SOME media attention, and LITTLE institutional investing. To be at the crash, those would have had to been exhausted as seen in the background of the graph. That most certainly has not even come close to happening, therefore is anything we are at the first sell-off.

Most likely: that graph can't be used to infer anything in regard to bitcoin

But go ahead and continue spouting FUD so that your sell doesn't end up biting you in the ass.
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April 13, 2013, 08:13:43 AM
 #22463

...


the 30d chart could also fit right in at the "first sell-off"

Personally I do also believe that we may be around the first sell off in a skewed kind of way. Most of the 'public' don't know about it at all, as some have said the institutions have started looking into it dipping their toes nothing more as of yet,  I do hope that maybe you are right however, simply looking at the two, almost aesthetically,  there are similarities, but also differences. However the one thing the said comparison doesn't show is what happens once the line passes the return to mean, it be rocketing like Mr. Jong-Un.
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April 13, 2013, 08:17:51 AM
 #22464



We had SOME media attention, and LITTLE institutional investing. To be at the crash, those would have had to been exhausted as seen in the background of the graph. That most certainly has not even come close to happening, therefore is anything we are at the first sell-off.

Most likely: that graph can't be used to infer anything in regard to bitcoin

But go ahead and continue spouting FUD so that your sell doesn't end up biting you in the ass.

Well, I dont think that what I post in this thread will make that much a difference. Also with all those bulls here I am clearly a minority.
I have lost money in two bigger bubbles before, and I have to tell you, there is really a lot of similarity. One of it is that people keep claiming that THIS is not comparable to anything we had before.
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April 13, 2013, 08:26:47 AM
 #22465



We had SOME media attention, and LITTLE institutional investing. To be at the crash, those would have had to been exhausted as seen in the background of the graph. That most certainly has not even come close to happening, therefore is anything we are at the first sell-off.

Most likely: that graph can't be used to infer anything in regard to bitcoin

But go ahead and continue spouting FUD so that your sell doesn't end up biting you in the ass.

Well, I dont think that what I post in this thread will make that much a difference. Also with all those bulls here I am clearly a minority.
I have lost money in two bigger bubbles before, and I have to tell you, there is really a lot of similarity. One of it is that people keep claiming that THIS is not comparable to anything we had before.

while it's absolutely true that's a common failing of stocks and tech in general, the whole "new paradigm" thing - bitcoin's tech and such really is unlike anything else out there, that's not a fallacy of the mind of investors.
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April 13, 2013, 08:28:03 AM
 #22466

That chart never gets old. It's the graphical equivalent of Godwin's Law :p

I tweet crypto nonsense: https://twitter.com/DunningKruger_
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April 13, 2013, 08:42:15 AM
 #22467

That chart never gets old. It's the graphical equivalent of Godwin's Law :p


Around here your not wrong actually, I did think this but I just thought it was getting pretty close to looking like its far right brethren for some folks than ever.
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April 13, 2013, 08:43:34 AM
 #22468

We already got mass " media attention" when we hit the very highs above 200. Expect not to get such attention until new highs is achieved if ever or when bitcoin sink to very low.
The CLAIM from biased Mtgox of massive signups doesn't mean more money pouring as a majority new investors are freaked out from that crash, that it can also go down heavily.As always some will see it as an opportunity at entering at a good price.   But NOW the optimism of guaranteed get-rich-quick has faded bears are more solid,early adopters, heads back on their shoulder, more keen on cashing out part of their stash at a reasonable price than dreaming of immense fortune at $1000 coin.
Institutional investors don't appreciate such volatility and hedge funds can't enter as its still not much liquid market enough.

I would say it will be stable for the few more days and the price direction afterwards will be a decisive trend setter ahead..

How Ripple Rips you: "The founders of Ripple Labs created 100 billion XRP at Ripple's inception. No more can be created according to the rules of the Ripple protocol. Of the 100 billion created, 20 billion XRP were retained by the creators, seeders, venture capital companies and other founders. The remaining 80 billion were given to Ripple Labs. Ripple Labs intends to distribute and sell 55 of that 80 billion XRP to users and strategic partners. Ripple Labs also had a giveaway of under 200 million XRP (0.002% of all XRP) via World Community Grid that was later discontinued.[29] Ripple Labs will retain the remaining 25 billion"
just1nmc
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April 13, 2013, 08:46:09 AM
 #22469

That chart never gets old. It's the graphical equivalent of Godwin's Law :p

Honest question about the chart, since I see it so much.

Is it supposed to actually follow that line? Or does it just list the different phases of a bubble and show a big increase and decrease?


Because in terms of scale I don't think anyone can claim it makes sense to bitcoin, unless this is the first sell off.

It just dropped from $260 to $60, much more dramatic than the bull trap on the chart. Also if 2011 was the first sell off, it's way too close to the 2013 peak, and it definitely didn't bring in the institutional investors..
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April 13, 2013, 08:47:04 AM
 #22470



while it's absolutely true that's a common failing of stocks and tech in general, the whole "new paradigm" thing - bitcoin's tech and such really is unlike anything else out there, that's not a fallacy of the mind of investors.

Yes, I belive that, too. I am invested in BC since 2011 because I believe in it. It just happend to grow too fast too much. This up and down is not good. Especially not if you are awaiting institutional investors. What you might get is highly professional speculators and they know their business pretty well.
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April 13, 2013, 09:00:02 AM
 #22471

That chart never gets old. It's the graphical equivalent of Godwin's Law :p

Honest question about the chart, since I see it so much.

Is it supposed to actually follow that line? Or does it just list the different phases of a bubble and show a big increase and decrease?

Because in terms of scale I don't think anyone can claim it makes sense to bitcoin, unless this is the first sell off.

It just dropped from $260 to $60, much more dramatic than the bull trap on the chart. Also if 2011 was the first sell off, it's way too close to the 2013 peak, and it definitely didn't bring in the institutional investors..


No, no, it's a general pattern. One which matches most bubbles to be honest.

But price charts are fractal, complex things. Zoom in, zoom out, squeeze the curve to fit and you could make it match almost any chart historically.

It's worth knowing about THAT chart in ANY field where mass psychology is involved  - that would be most things really I suppose.

So yeah there are 2 phases on that chart we could be at right now just don't ask me which.

It's what's beyond that chart and the little bumps and humps that can't be seen at that scale which interest me right now Smiley

I tweet crypto nonsense: https://twitter.com/DunningKruger_
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April 13, 2013, 09:00:43 AM
 #22472

Proudhon I have a few questions for you:

Do you think BTC is enough of a threat to the mainstream fractional usury currencies that the centralbanks would bankroll (pay) people to go on BTC forums and give consistently negative opinions about everything to do with BTC?

Do you believe the 266 to 55 crash was orchestrated by a handful of operators trying to crash BTC completely?

For the record, do you yourself own any BTC? Tens, hundreds or thousands?
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April 13, 2013, 09:06:46 AM
 #22473

looks like lots of coins have changed hands in the last phase of the dip...

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April 13, 2013, 09:09:17 AM
 #22474

Proudhon I have a few questions for you:

Do you think BTC is enough of a threat to the mainstream fractional usury currencies that the centralbanks would bankroll (pay) people to go on BTC forums and give consistently negative opinions about everything to do with BTC?

Do you believe the 266 to 55 crash was orchestrated by a handful of operators trying to crash BTC completely?

For the record, do you yourself own any BTC? Tens, hundreds or thousands?

No, it was a shakedown which got out of hand due to the serious lag issues at MtGox.
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April 13, 2013, 09:17:52 AM
 #22475



No, it was a shakedown which got out of hand due to the serious lag issues at MtGox.

I think that was only the trigger. Many people had sleepless nights waiting with their fingers on the sell button. Maybe the lags made the first sell and then the others paniced, but it could've been anything else. It was just about time.
I personally was expecting this so much, that a day before I opened accounts on several other exchanges, and sending BTC there, just to be sure that I will be able to sell.
Thats why I am suffering from that bitcoin24 closure now, too.
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April 13, 2013, 09:23:25 AM
 #22476

Having been a long time reader of this read/forum, probably too long/too much time spent and lurking on here for a while. Just wanted to say that many of you provide some brilliantly comedic moments as well as some insightful comments.

For what it is worth I am Long/Bullish. But aware of the potential for shit to hit the fan, having seen it grow from nearly the start.

Also, I just wanted to bring this back into peoples heads since we are looking at charts, or supposed to be, but this is looking awefully similar to the 30d charts of BTC

http://marketpredict.com/articles/images/bubble-lifecycle.gif



In this market cycle, Where are we now with bitcoins , ....according to you


_______ Have a nice day folks =:) _______
===I'm wondering why I was slaving away 9 to 5 , NOT knowing Bitcoins earlier ; Regards, CC===
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April 13, 2013, 09:28:07 AM
 #22477



No, it was a shakedown which got out of hand due to the serious lag issues at MtGox.

I think that was only the trigger. Many people had sleepless nights waiting with their fingers on the sell button. Maybe the lags made the first sell and then the others paniced, but it could've been anything else. It was just about time.
I personally was expecting this so much, that a day before I opened accounts on several other exchanges, and sending BTC there, just to be sure that I will be able to sell.
Thats why I am suffering from that bitcoin24 closure now, too.


I agree, but I can't help but feel it wouldn't of gone as low without the lag.

People were putting in market sells into over an hour of lag. If you wanted to sell you kind of had to, because calling what the price would be in an hour was pretty risky. Anyone that predicted too high of a price would be stuck with their coins.

There also wasn't much of a chance to buy and slow down the crash for the same reason. No one wanted to risk buying too high. My bid at $106 took 75 minutes to open, so crazy.
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April 13, 2013, 09:49:45 AM
 #22478

I agree, but I can't help but feel it wouldn't of gone as low without the lag.

People were putting in market sells into over an hour of lag. If you wanted to sell you kind of had to, because calling what the price would be in an hour was pretty risky. Anyone that predicted too high of a price would be stuck with their coins.

There also wasn't much of a chance to buy and slow down the crash for the same reason. No one wanted to risk buying too high. My bid at $106 took 75 minutes to open, so crazy.


Selling with such a lag would be crazy. I just held mine once the craziness started.

I thought it had 1 or 2 more days in it before a correction. I figured everyone would get jittery towards $300 and planned to sell at around 275-280.

I suspect someone else thought the same and dumped the lot before it got to my target.

I still have my BTC, if I had sold I would have probably bought back way before the bottom.

Hopefully this lag nonsense will now cease to be an issue so we can make live buys during moments of panic without missing them by attempting to guess the correct price. I'm not playing that game any more.
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April 13, 2013, 10:03:26 AM
 #22479

Pop, again.

So, how about a bet? I bet you 1k BTC we will see 200$ before single digits.

Oh, wait, you obviously are out of Bitcoin.
Oh, wait, you obviously are trolling anyway.

Ente

So, Proudhon, not even replying to this?
Haha loser!
I'm not surprised though.

Ente
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April 13, 2013, 10:06:18 AM
 #22480

Pop, again.

So, how about a bet? I bet you 1k BTC we will see 200$ before single digits.

Oh, wait, you obviously are out of Bitcoin.
Oh, wait, you obviously are trolling anyway.

Ente

I bet you a million dollars you don't have 1000 BTC.



..did I say I have 1000 BTC?
All right. how do you wish to proceed your 1M$ bet?
I prefer escrow in this case ;-)

Ente

How about you then, ElectricMucus?
Anything to say, or shall I just prove I have 1k BTC and earn you a scammer tag for not paying me 1M$?
..in the case you don't have those 1M bucks, lol

Ente
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