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Author Topic: Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker  (Read 1652602 times)
robocoin
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October 07, 2012, 02:26:38 AM
 #3201

ok in the hundreds of Tongue
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October 07, 2012, 02:26:51 AM
 #3202

In before the price falls below $10.  Cool

The people who own 1000s of bitcoin are soon going to realize they have a dead investment until next spring/summer. The block reward halving in reality will mean miners are GOING to sell more btc to cover costs for new asics and slight amount of elect cost because price is not going to rise to match the halving. Before you could horde quite a few coins due to stuff being paid off but now they have sunk costs to recover, a falling btc price as we go into winter, and less reward in btc.

I will be thrilled to get more then 10 usd per btc come dec.

Maybe. But what makes no sense is buying more mining hardware when the price goes down. You will get allomost nothing from a 4.5GHs thingy when the difficulty is in the millions, it will be like one fucking amd5870 today. Last year, hmmm.

that is the main reason i have not bought a single asic yet. too many unknown variables to make a good decision.
i did a preorder of a avalon though but have not paid. i am waiting to see if btc price crashes down to something decent before
paying the 114 btc i owe on it. it is looking like i will just not get it and wait until spring to see if the numbers add up to make it
viable like gpu was last year.

people are counting on being an early adopter in this asic race. it is the only way to make a killing.
otherwise you are right. come summer these asic jallys will be the equivalent of a 5830-50. Nothing to be
thrilled about owning except low cost in elect. you will need 7+ of them to make a .5 btc per day.
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October 07, 2012, 02:27:26 AM
 #3203

I'm going to laugh at you guys when it's 17 in January.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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October 07, 2012, 02:33:24 AM
 #3204

I'm going to laugh at you guys when it's 17 in January.

the thing is this:

we all know the block reward is halving. the whole market knows this. it is not far off.
one can debate that it is/was priced in. hitting 15 was quite the achievement that lasted
about 14 whole minutes.

there are plenty of btc in the market right this second to cover demand now and in jan.

the reward halving is going to be a non event except for miners who will be sad.

winter has been a really poor time to hold btc compared to summer. it seems quite seasonal
to me as interest dies off for a while. 17 by next summer? that i might bet on.
lebing
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October 07, 2012, 02:41:14 AM
 #3205

I'm going to laugh at you guys when it's 17 in January.

the thing is this:

we all know the block reward is halving. the whole market knows this. it is not far off.
one can debate that it is/was priced in. hitting 15 was quite the achievement that lasted
about 14 whole minutes.

there are plenty of btc in the market right this second to cover demand now and in jan.

the reward halving is going to be a non event except for miners who will be sad.

winter has been a really poor time to hold btc compared to summer. it seems quite seasonal
to me as interest dies off for a while. 17 by next summer? that i might bet on.

If you believe that mining really has any nominal effect on the price, then yes you would believe that. However, check out the numbers and you'll see it doesn't. It's a fraction compared to those speculating on the economy/ investing early in preparation for astronomical numbers following (incremental) mainstream acceptance. If the price was based on mining, it would be far more linear than it is now.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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October 07, 2012, 02:49:39 AM
 #3206

I'm going to laugh at you guys when it's 17 in January.

the thing is this:

we all know the block reward is halving. the whole market knows this. it is not far off.
one can debate that it is/was priced in. hitting 15 was quite the achievement that lasted
about 14 whole minutes.

there are plenty of btc in the market right this second to cover demand now and in jan.

the reward halving is going to be a non event except for miners who will be sad.

winter has been a really poor time to hold btc compared to summer. it seems quite seasonal
to me as interest dies off for a while. 17 by next summer? that i might bet on.

If you believe that mining really has any nominal effect on the price, then yes you would believe that. However, check out the numbers and you'll see it doesn't. It's a fraction compared to those speculating on the economy/ investing early in preparation for astronomical numbers following (incremental) mainstream acceptance. If the price was based on mining, it would be far more linear than it is now.

so speculation is somehow supposed to get us to 17 come jan?
i do think that mining puts a downward pressure on the price on a daily basis. many miners sell all the time. i do.
those btc add up over a week/month time frame.

the bitcoin economy, so far, seems to be a whole lot of goofy ideas, outright fraud, with a tiny percentage of workable ideas.
so by jan seems optimistic to hit 17. it will take more time then that.

but i am not a true believer like many here. i see bitcoin as a cash cow to milk until those teets dry up.

my point is this: i think many large btc holders will realize the safe bet in the short term will be usd/whatever. why let
your money be a dead investment for the next few months with a good risk to lose quite a bit of it?
lebing
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October 07, 2012, 02:56:08 AM
 #3207

I'm going to laugh at you guys when it's 17 in January.

the thing is this:

we all know the block reward is halving. the whole market knows this. it is not far off.
one can debate that it is/was priced in. hitting 15 was quite the achievement that lasted
about 14 whole minutes.

there are plenty of btc in the market right this second to cover demand now and in jan.

the reward halving is going to be a non event except for miners who will be sad.

winter has been a really poor time to hold btc compared to summer. it seems quite seasonal
to me as interest dies off for a while. 17 by next summer? that i might bet on.

If you believe that mining really has any nominal effect on the price, then yes you would believe that. However, check out the numbers and you'll see it doesn't. It's a fraction compared to those speculating on the economy/ investing early in preparation for astronomical numbers following (incremental) mainstream acceptance. If the price was based on mining, it would be far more linear than it is now.

so speculation is somehow supposed to get us to 17 come jan?
i do think that mining puts a downward pressure on the price on a daily basis. many miners sell all the time. i do.
those btc add up over a week/month time frame.

the bitcoin economy, so far, seems to be a whole lot of goofy ideas, outright fraud, with a tiny percentage of workable ideas.
so by jan seems optimistic to hit 17. it will take more time then that.

but i am not a true believer like many here. i see bitcoin as a cash cow to milk until those teets dry up.

my point is this: i think many large btc holders will realize the safe bet in the short term will be usd/whatever. why let
your money be a dead investment for the next few months with a good risk to lose quite a bit of it?

Dead investment? I've made like 80% in 4 months just hoarding (squirrel ftw!).

Not sure how to say this without sounding insulting - but if you pay attention to the larger macroeconomics on the worldscene right now you would not think that USD/whatever is anything close to safe.

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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October 07, 2012, 03:00:51 AM
 #3208

I'm going to laugh at you guys when it's 17 in January.

the thing is this:

we all know the block reward is halving. the whole market knows this. it is not far off.
one can debate that it is/was priced in. hitting 15 was quite the achievement that lasted
about 14 whole minutes.

there are plenty of btc in the market right this second to cover demand now and in jan.

the reward halving is going to be a non event except for miners who will be sad.

winter has been a really poor time to hold btc compared to summer. it seems quite seasonal
to me as interest dies off for a while. 17 by next summer? that i might bet on.

If you believe that mining really has any nominal effect on the price, then yes you would believe that. However, check out the numbers and you'll see it doesn't. It's a fraction compared to those speculating on the economy/ investing early in preparation for astronomical numbers following (incremental) mainstream acceptance. If the price was based on mining, it would be far more linear than it is now.

so speculation is somehow supposed to get us to 17 come jan?
i do think that mining puts a downward pressure on the price on a daily basis. many miners sell all the time. i do.
those btc add up over a week/month time frame.

the bitcoin economy, so far, seems to be a whole lot of goofy ideas, outright fraud, with a tiny percentage of workable ideas.
so by jan seems optimistic to hit 17. it will take more time then that.

but i am not a true believer like many here. i see bitcoin as a cash cow to milk until those teets dry up.

my point is this: i think many large btc holders will realize the safe bet in the short term will be usd/whatever. why let
your money be a dead investment for the next few months with a good risk to lose quite a bit of it?

Dead investment? I've made like 80% in 4 months just hoarding (squirrel ftw!).

Not sure how to say this without sounding insulting - but if you pay attention to the larger macroeconomics on the worldscene right now you would not think that USD/whatever is anything close to safe.

i do pay attention to the world scene and only a squirrel who lost his nut would put serious money into bitcoin when there are other
options available that can hedge against a crazy world going bonkers. People race to the dollar when shit hits the fan for very good reasons. This will not change in our lifetimes.

Past performance does not equate to future performance. Everyone knows that. You road the summer ride up just like what happened
last year. Lets see who rides it down this winter?

good luck to you! i will gladly sell for anything above 10 right now.
lebing
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October 07, 2012, 03:03:48 AM
 #3209

I'm going to laugh at you guys when it's 17 in January.

the thing is this:

we all know the block reward is halving. the whole market knows this. it is not far off.
one can debate that it is/was priced in. hitting 15 was quite the achievement that lasted
about 14 whole minutes.

there are plenty of btc in the market right this second to cover demand now and in jan.

the reward halving is going to be a non event except for miners who will be sad.

winter has been a really poor time to hold btc compared to summer. it seems quite seasonal
to me as interest dies off for a while. 17 by next summer? that i might bet on.

If you believe that mining really has any nominal effect on the price, then yes you would believe that. However, check out the numbers and you'll see it doesn't. It's a fraction compared to those speculating on the economy/ investing early in preparation for astronomical numbers following (incremental) mainstream acceptance. If the price was based on mining, it would be far more linear than it is now.

so speculation is somehow supposed to get us to 17 come jan?
i do think that mining puts a downward pressure on the price on a daily basis. many miners sell all the time. i do.
those btc add up over a week/month time frame.

the bitcoin economy, so far, seems to be a whole lot of goofy ideas, outright fraud, with a tiny percentage of workable ideas.
so by jan seems optimistic to hit 17. it will take more time then that.

but i am not a true believer like many here. i see bitcoin as a cash cow to milk until those teets dry up.

my point is this: i think many large btc holders will realize the safe bet in the short term will be usd/whatever. why let
your money be a dead investment for the next few months with a good risk to lose quite a bit of it?

Dead investment? I've made like 80% in 4 months just hoarding (squirrel ftw!).

Not sure how to say this without sounding insulting - but if you pay attention to the larger macroeconomics on the worldscene right now you would not think that USD/whatever is anything close to safe.

i do pay attention to the world scene and only a squirrel who lost his nut would put serious money into bitcoin when there are other
options available that can hedge against a crazy world going bonkers. People race to the dollar when shit hits the fan for very good reasons. This will not change in our lifetimes.

Past performance does not equate to future performance. Everyone knows that. You road the summer ride up just like what happened
last year. Lets see who rides it down this winter?

good luck to you! i will gladly sell for anything above 10 right now.

We can agree to disagree then I suppose (and good luck to you as well!)

But answer me this, why does the season have anything to with the price?

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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October 07, 2012, 03:08:43 AM
 #3210

I'm going to laugh at you guys when it's 17 in January.

the thing is this:

we all know the block reward is halving. the whole market knows this. it is not far off.
one can debate that it is/was priced in. hitting 15 was quite the achievement that lasted
about 14 whole minutes.

there are plenty of btc in the market right this second to cover demand now and in jan.

the reward halving is going to be a non event except for miners who will be sad.

winter has been a really poor time to hold btc compared to summer. it seems quite seasonal
to me as interest dies off for a while. 17 by next summer? that i might bet on.

If you believe that mining really has any nominal effect on the price, then yes you would believe that. However, check out the numbers and you'll see it doesn't. It's a fraction compared to those speculating on the economy/ investing early in preparation for astronomical numbers following (incremental) mainstream acceptance. If the price was based on mining, it would be far more linear than it is now.

so speculation is somehow supposed to get us to 17 come jan?
i do think that mining puts a downward pressure on the price on a daily basis. many miners sell all the time. i do.
those btc add up over a week/month time frame.

the bitcoin economy, so far, seems to be a whole lot of goofy ideas, outright fraud, with a tiny percentage of workable ideas.
so by jan seems optimistic to hit 17. it will take more time then that.

but i am not a true believer like many here. i see bitcoin as a cash cow to milk until those teets dry up.

my point is this: i think many large btc holders will realize the safe bet in the short term will be usd/whatever. why let
your money be a dead investment for the next few months with a good risk to lose quite a bit of it?

Dead investment? I've made like 80% in 4 months just hoarding (squirrel ftw!).

Not sure how to say this without sounding insulting - but if you pay attention to the larger macroeconomics on the worldscene right now you would not think that USD/whatever is anything close to safe.

i do pay attention to the world scene and only a squirrel who lost his nut would put serious money into bitcoin when there are other
options available that can hedge against a crazy world going bonkers. People race to the dollar when shit hits the fan for very good reasons. This will not change in our lifetimes.

Past performance does not equate to future performance. Everyone knows that. You road the summer ride up just like what happened
last year. Lets see who rides it down this winter?

good luck to you! i will gladly sell for anything above 10 right now.

We can agree to disagree then I suppose (and good luck to you as well!)

But answer me this, why does the season have anything to with the price?

Schools are out in the summer, so college kids have more time to browse the web.
Yuhfhrh
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October 07, 2012, 03:10:01 AM
 #3211

Oh crap $11.89
fcmatt
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October 07, 2012, 03:10:34 AM
 #3212

I'm going to laugh at you guys when it's 17 in January.

the thing is this:

we all know the block reward is halving. the whole market knows this. it is not far off.
one can debate that it is/was priced in. hitting 15 was quite the achievement that lasted
about 14 whole minutes.

there are plenty of btc in the market right this second to cover demand now and in jan.

the reward halving is going to be a non event except for miners who will be sad.

winter has been a really poor time to hold btc compared to summer. it seems quite seasonal
to me as interest dies off for a while. 17 by next summer? that i might bet on.

If you believe that mining really has any nominal effect on the price, then yes you would believe that. However, check out the numbers and you'll see it doesn't. It's a fraction compared to those speculating on the economy/ investing early in preparation for astronomical numbers following (incremental) mainstream acceptance. If the price was based on mining, it would be far more linear than it is now.

so speculation is somehow supposed to get us to 17 come jan?
i do think that mining puts a downward pressure on the price on a daily basis. many miners sell all the time. i do.
those btc add up over a week/month time frame.

the bitcoin economy, so far, seems to be a whole lot of goofy ideas, outright fraud, with a tiny percentage of workable ideas.
so by jan seems optimistic to hit 17. it will take more time then that.

but i am not a true believer like many here. i see bitcoin as a cash cow to milk until those teets dry up.

my point is this: i think many large btc holders will realize the safe bet in the short term will be usd/whatever. why let
your money be a dead investment for the next few months with a good risk to lose quite a bit of it?

Dead investment? I've made like 80% in 4 months just hoarding (squirrel ftw!).

Not sure how to say this without sounding insulting - but if you pay attention to the larger macroeconomics on the worldscene right now you would not think that USD/whatever is anything close to safe.

i do pay attention to the world scene and only a squirrel who lost his nut would put serious money into bitcoin when there are other
options available that can hedge against a crazy world going bonkers. People race to the dollar when shit hits the fan for very good reasons. This will not change in our lifetimes.

Past performance does not equate to future performance. Everyone knows that. You road the summer ride up just like what happened
last year. Lets see who rides it down this winter?

good luck to you! i will gladly sell for anything above 10 right now.

We can agree to disagree then I suppose (and good luck to you as well!)

But answer me this, why does the season have anything to with the price?

I feel that a lot of bitcoin users are younger, go back to school/college, have seasonal demands on their free cash,  lose interest during major holidays like thanksgiving, christmas, and new years, and otherwise get involved with things that have nothing to do with bitcoin. Just look at the stats on this forum. Things are already slowing down and it will get slower.  

The big diff this time will be asics. It should keep this forum popping from the mining perspective.

I am basing most of this on what happened last winter. I expect it to happen again.

More a hunch then anything.
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October 07, 2012, 03:12:28 AM
 #3213


Dive! Dive! Dive!

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October 07, 2012, 03:14:41 AM
 #3214

at least is old a few up there

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October 07, 2012, 03:18:58 AM
 #3215

Simply safer to be in anything but btc right now. Risk reward ratio is poor. Too much risk.
All this SEC talk is just icing on the cake now. That investment in satoshi dice looks quite dicey ;-)
If you had 2500 btc tied up in it would you feel good right now?
notme
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October 07, 2012, 03:21:09 AM
 #3216

Simply safer to be in anything but btc right now. Risk reward ratio is poor. Too much risk.
All this SEC talk is just icing on the cake now. That investment in satoshi dice looks quite dicey ;-)
If you had 2500 btc tied up in it would you feel good right now?

That sucks, but don't blame bitcoin for your investment losses.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
lebing
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October 07, 2012, 03:22:58 AM
 #3217


But answer me this, why does the season have anything to with the price?

Schools are out in the summer, so college kids have more time to browse the web.

Right - because college students are the ones funding the last few million needed to move the price from 5 to 15.  Roll Eyes

Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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October 07, 2012, 03:23:40 AM
 #3218


But answer me this, why does the season have anything to with the price?

Schools are out in the summer, so college kids have more time to browse the web.

Right - because college students are the ones funding the last few million needed to move the price from 5 to 15.  Roll Eyes

Also, one man's winter is another man's summer.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
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October 07, 2012, 03:28:19 AM
 #3219


But answer me this, why does the season have anything to with the price?

Schools are out in the summer, so college kids have more time to browse the web.

Right - because college students are the ones funding the last few million needed to move the price from 5 to 15.  Roll Eyes

They aren't major players, but they do have an effect.
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October 07, 2012, 03:29:53 AM
 #3220

Simply safer to be in anything but btc right now. Risk reward ratio is poor. Too much risk.
All this SEC talk is just icing on the cake now. That investment in satoshi dice looks quite dicey ;-)
If you had 2500 btc tied up in it would you feel good right now?

That sucks, but don't blame bitcoin for your investment losses.

i did not make any such investment. i was thinking how i would feel if i had 25K USD tied up in
a gambling website that i bought shares of on a website ran by a Romanian who also hosts porno
on the same domain name!

heh. with gblse just going poof.. i would want out, pronto.
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