Wall Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker

[Mushoz]

Winter is coming...

Heh, your single digit prediction might just come true

[proudhon]

Heh, your single digit prediction might just come true

I think there's a really good chance of it.  It all depends on what happens in the next few weeks, I think.  And, really, it turns on whether there's a strong move up.  If there isn't soon, then I think the weight of this weekly crossover will depress the price for several months.  The wild card is the reward change, but I'm of the opinion that if anything it will negatively affect price.

[humanitee]

Heh, your single digit prediction might just come true

I think there's a really good chance of it.  It all depends on what happens in the next few weeks, I think.  And, really, it turns on whether there's a strong move up.  If there isn't soon, then I think the weight of this weekly crossover will depress the price for several months.  The wild card is the reward change, but I'm of the opinion that if anything it will negatively affect price.

QFT.

[fcmatt]

Heh, your single digit prediction might just come true

I think there's a really good chance of it.  It all depends on what happens in the next few weeks, I think.  And, really, it turns on whether there's a strong move up.  If there isn't soon, then I think the weight of this weekly crossover will depress the price for several months.  The wild card is the reward change, but I'm of the opinion that if anything it will negatively affect price.

QFT.

Especially when all these new asic miners, who now get half of what people are used to, want a ROI of their hardware.
They spent millions of dollars.. and do we really think they are all going to horde btc? Nope. They want their USD back
ASAP. Then maybe they will horde btc again.

If I spent 5K on asic hardware.. i know I would want my USD back. At that point it is not a hobby but a business.

[proudhon]

Heh, your single digit prediction might just come true

I think there's a really good chance of it.  It all depends on what happens in the next few weeks, I think.  And, really, it turns on whether there's a strong move up.  If there isn't soon, then I think the weight of this weekly crossover will depress the price for several months.  The wild card is the reward change, but I'm of the opinion that if anything it will negatively affect price.

QFT.

Especially when all these new asic miners, who now get half of what people are used to, want a ROI of their hardware.
They spent millions of dollars.. and do we really think they are all going to horde btc? Nope. They want their USD back
ASAP. Then maybe they will horde btc again.

If I spent 5K on asic hardware.. i know I would want my USD back. At that point it is not a hobby but a business.

This is a large part of why I think the price is going to go down in response to the block reward change.  I think it's even possible it turns into a pretty serious 2011-style crash.  As ASIC miners sell and compete with each other to sell in order to recoup their costs, other people will sell their bitcoins in order to sell before more miners sell, and so on.  Maybe things won't turn out that way.  In any event, soon enough we'll know.

[adamstgBit]

Heh, your single digit prediction might just come true

I think there's a really good chance of it.  It all depends on what happens in the next few weeks, I think.  And, really, it turns on whether there's a strong move up.  If there isn't soon, then I think the weight of this weekly crossover will depress the price for several months.  The wild card is the reward change, but I'm of the opinion that if anything it will negatively affect price.

QFT.

Especially when all these new asic miners, who now get half of what people are used to, want a ROI of their hardware.
They spent millions of dollars.. and do we really think they are all going to horde btc? Nope. They want their USD back
ASAP. Then maybe they will horde btc again.

If I spent 5K on asic hardware.. i know I would want my USD back. At that point it is not a hobby but a business.

agreed,
the other wild card is how ASCI miners will react to the price slowly going down for several months.


if i spent 5K on hardware, I'd sell when i think the price is high Buy when the price is low, and get 5%-10% more USD out of my mined bitcoins

...

if i spent 5mill on hardware, I'd mine all the bitcoins and buy the rest 

[jasinlee]

I think the order will go something like this

1. ASICs arrive, panic mining ensues
2. Market is flooded with btc that are freshly mined and prices drop
3. Difficulty spikes massively, supply begins to dip severely and prices go up.
4. The other people who ordered start getting orders and then lots of people are mining on ASICs and now difficulty jumps dramatically but so does supply and whatever price the btc were at when this phase hits will equalize the cost for a week or so until prices go nuts again on next difficulty change.

[Ente]

I think the order will go something like this

1. ASICs arrive, panic mining ensues
2. Market is flooded with btc that are freshly mined and prices drop
3. Difficulty spikes massively, supply begins to dip severely and prices go up.
4. The other people who ordered start getting orders and then lots of people are mining on ASICs and now difficulty jumps dramatically but so does supply and whatever price the btc were at when this phase hits will equalize the cost for a week or so until prices go nuts again on next difficulty change.

panic, flood, massively, dramatically, nuts?
Yes, that pretty much sums up whats going on with Bitcoin! :-)

Ente

[adamstgBit]

8$ / BTC
in 3 months

The Plunge!!!

[fcmatt]

I know a lot of people think freshly mined btc, in the current amounts now and after the halving, is
not enough to drive down prices compared to what is out there and being traded now.

I tend to disagree. It wont be a plunge but a steady downward pressure for the few months after
ASICS arrive. 500 BTC here, 500 BTC there.. and soon you are talking tens of thousands of BTC
being sold... It adds up over time.

Combine that with the possible chance of many GPU miners selling their hardware and deciding
they no longer have an interest in bitcoin.. and just slowly fade away. They will no longer really
want to be involved and thus stop day trading, buying bitcoins for whatever reason, etc... I might
very well be in this camp if I decide buying new ASIC hardware is just not worth it when the ROI can
be a year+.

[OgNasty]

When everyone thinks the price will fall, it usually rises.  I like all the bearish sentiment around here these days.  With the block reward getting cut, ASIC deliveries being delayed, & the always bullish New Year's Eve date approaching, I think we could see a bubble form in the next 2 months...  

[Energizer]

You wish BTC price drops down? Why? probably you are one of those who've sold all their bitcoins ~ 12$. There is one major fact that you would argue about, that most bitcoiners wants BTC price to drop down for one and only one reason: "buy back at lower price". For that I expect BTC price to keep swinging in the range of 10 to 13 for the coming month. But I am really wondering what will happen when the block reward drops to 25 BTC. Are we currently witnessing the last down wave before the 25BTC block reward?

[myself]

the reward have nothing do to with price, if you follow that logic people who did buy at  15.40 should also buy at 30.80 and now who buy at 11.10 should also buy at 22.20 since is the same price from a reward point of view and if you don't believe and bet your life on the statement that half reward should double the price but you will say that half reward per block will only increase the price then bingo you are speculating and you just just joined the speculator club   

[Kupsi]

the reward have nothing do to with price...

lol 

[Aseras]

Heh, your single digit prediction might just come true

I think there's a really good chance of it.  It all depends on what happens in the next few weeks, I think.  And, really, it turns on whether there's a strong move up.  If there isn't soon, then I think the weight of this weekly crossover will depress the price for several months.  The wild card is the reward change, but I'm of the opinion that if anything it will negatively affect price.

QFT.

Especially when all these new asic miners, who now get half of what people are used to, want a ROI of their hardware.
They spent millions of dollars.. and do we really think they are all going to horde btc? Nope. They want their USD back
ASAP. Then maybe they will horde btc again.

If I spent 5K on asic hardware.. i know I would want my USD back. At that point it is not a hobby but a business.

the asics were bought with hoarded bitcoins. I bought my asics with coins I mined 2 years ago before the first boom. I still have plenty left and I plan to sit on them, if I sold them 2 years ago i could've bought a pizza, now I can buy a house.  Most people are aware of that, so unless something bad happens that causes everyone to drop their positions and stop hoarding, the market is going to be tight.

[Junko]

[byronbb]

Mad at myself because I saw this coming but didn't make a move.

[Junko]

[jasinlee]

[bzzard]