bitZino - Bitcoin Casino - Blackjack, Roulette, 3 Card Poker, Slots and more!

[dooglus]

Out of curiosity - what are the maximum bets for your games? Your OP claims 10 BTC as the maximum, but the bankroll required for you to operate with people betting that much has to be massive. Is 10 BTC really the max bet and do you think that's sustainable? Do you actually get much action that high? As I said, I'm more curious (or nosy -- take your pick) than anything.

I'm curious too but wouldn't have had the balls (or lack of tact -- take your pick) to ask. 

[FreeMoney]

Out of curiosity - what are the maximum bets for your games? Your OP claims 10 BTC as the maximum, but the bankroll required for you to operate with people betting that much has to be massive. Is 10 BTC really the max bet and do you think that's sustainable? Do you actually get much action that high? As I said, I'm more curious (or nosy -- take your pick) than anything.

You can have a lot higher max bet and lower risk of ruin if you are willing to reduce it as you lose.

Also the edge in blackjack can be massive if some players play poorly.

Or he might have a massive roll :-)

[libertaad]

Out of curiosity - what are the maximum bets for your games? Your OP claims 10 BTC as the maximum, but the bankroll required for you to operate with people betting that much has to be massive. Is 10 BTC really the max bet and do you think that's sustainable? Do you actually get much action that high? As I said, I'm more curious (or nosy -- take your pick) than anything.

I'm curious too but wouldn't have had the balls (or lack of tact -- take your pick) to ask.  

Heh, this is a definitely very interesting question, and I'm happy to talk about it Risk management is one of the more complicated aspects of running a casino, and I have certainly learned a lot about it since launching bitZino. Fortunately, we've got some smart minds with a background in risk management. Before launching any games we do extensive analysis of the game to ensure that our risk of ruin is infinitesimal. This process is fresh in my head because we've been doing extensive analysis of our soon-to-launch Roulette game (which poses unique challenges with its 35 to 1 bets (more on this below)).

This is a paramount process for any honest casino: if the casino's risk of ruin isn't effectively zero, then you as a player are not only playing against the house-edge, but you're also playing against the risk of the casino going broke.

The statistical math behind risk of ruin calculations is incredibly complicated. While we do utilize concepts such as binomial distributions to double-check certain assumptions, we primarily calculate our risk of ruin by running Monte Carlo simulations. A Monte Carlo simulation is effectively just simulating a random event enough times so that you have an idea of the probability of that event. If you do enough simulations you can get a very accurate estimation of the true odds. This reduces the need for incredibly  complicated math, while also providing us more testing of our actual code (since we run our Monte Carlo simulations against our actual code for the game in question).

So, what odds are we calculating when we do our Monte Carlo simulations? We're not just calculating the odds of the game - we already know that. We are calculating the odds that a player's balance gets above a certain point at any time while continually playing the game and betting the maximum.

So, for example, to set up a Monte Carlo simulation for our single-0 roulette game we create a new player, give them a balance of 0, and have then constantly place a bet of 1 on a single number (which pays 35 to 1). We have them do this 1.5 million times (which is enough for their balance to go irrevocably negative). All the while, we are tracking the maximum value that their balance gets to. We then repeat this entire process 100k times. We can then plot of histogram of the maximum balances of the player, which gives us the effective risk of ruin for various bankrolls:

Risk of Ruin for Single-0 Roulette (player betting 1 on single number)

Bankroll	Risk of Ruin
0	81.605%
1000	17.216%
2000	3.547%
3000	0.75%
4000	0.258%
5000	0.083%
6000	0.025%
7000	0.008%
8000	0.001%

This chart indicates that if a casino wants to have a less than 0.001% risk of ruin, they must have a bankroll of more than 8000x the maximum bet on a single number.

If you run the same simulation on roulette with the player betting on a 1 to 1 bet (ie, betting on red or on even), the bankroll requirement for the house is significantly lower. We find we only need 300x the maximum bet to keep our risk of ruin well below 0.001%.

I found it interesting how much of a difference a 35:1 bet versus a 1:1 bet affects the risk of ruin. If we used our risk of ruin estimation of the 1:1 bet to calculate the bankroll for our 35:1 bets (ie, if we only had 300x the bankroll of the maximum 35:1 bet), then our risk of ruin would be over 50%!

When we launch roulette, we will initially be conservative and will allow bets of up to 10 BTC on the outer bets, and up to 1 BTC on the inner bets.

You can have a lot higher max bet and lower risk of ruin if you are willing to reduce it as you lose.

Exactly! 0.001% is small, but it's not infinitesimal. In order to make our true risk of ruin truly infinitesimal, we have the ability to lower the maximum bet as necessary. We prefer not to rely on this mechanic though, which is why we shoot for a very low risk of ruin without it.

Also the edge in blackjack can be massive if some players play poorly.

While this is true, we don't rely on this at all when computing our bankroll requirements. Because at any point a player could come and start betting the maximum and playing perfect strategy.

As you can see - we have thought extensively about this problem

That was fun to write, but now it's time to get back to launching roulette!

[libertaad]

We have officially launched Roulette!





I'm really proud of the interface we developed for this game. We have been trying to break away from the common paradigm of simply simulating physical games on a screen. We think we can create much better user interfaces when we utilize all the features that a computer has to offer.

For example, we have been trying to not introduce the chip metaphor into any of our games - we think it's much easier to type a number than drag an drop various chips around the screen. This did pose as somewhat of a challenge for roulette, where chips play an integral part of both how you place your bets as well as how you visualize your bets. But in the end, we think we've created a much better digital representation of roulette than any we've played. Try it out, and let us know if you agree!

Also, like all of our games, roulette is Provably Fair. We utilize cryptography to make it computationally impossible for us to cheat you. You are guaranteed a fair game!

As always, I'm here on the forums, and very receptive to your feedback. If you have any comments at all, please don't hesitate to let me know!

[dooglus]

In order to make our true risk of ruin truly infinitesimal, we have the ability to lower the minimum bet as necessary.

I would suggest also adding the ability to lower the maximum bet. 

[libertaad]

In order to make our true risk of ruin truly infinitesimal, we have the ability to lower the minimum bet as necessary.

I would suggest also adding the ability to lower the maximum bet. 

Haha, shoot, I knew I was forgetting something btw,  I'm pretty sure you're the bet proof-reader I know

[556j]

For roulette, the "bet per click" is getting reset to 1 every time I spin.

[dooglus]

I'm really proud of the interface we developed for this game. We have been trying to break away from the common paradigm of simply simulating physical games on a screen. We think we can create much better user interfaces when we utilize all the features that a computer has to offer.

I agree.  That's a fantastic interface.  I like how you pare the games down to the bare essentials rather than trying to reproduce the physical games.

2 comments:

* I'm not sure about outlining winning bets in red.  Red's somehow a "losing" colour for me, and also suggests something about the red/black result.  I'd pick a colour that isn't red or black.  Perhaps a light (white, cyan, yellow?) colour.  I mean the red outline on the '36' below:



* When I click on the table it places a bet of '1'.  I'd like to be able to click again in the same spot to increment the bet.  So if I want to bet '3', I could just click 3 times.  Currently I have to click once then target the little '+1' button which isn't even always in the same position relative to where I clicked.  Sometimes it's above and sometimes it's below the mouse cursor.

When that's all I can come up with to complain about you know you've done something right!  

[dooglus]

For roulette, the "bet per click" is getting reset to 1 every time I spin.

I hadn't even noticed the 'bet per click'.  It gets reset to 1 for me too.  "per click" in the wording seems to suggest that each click will bet that amount, so if I click twice on a number it bets twice that amount (see my second comment in my previous post).

Also I'd like to see the 'x2 +1 -1 1/2' buttons next to the 'bet per click' box, just like there are for the bet sizing box for blackjack.

[dooglus]

When I click on a number to bet, there's a box I can type into to edit the bet size.  It doesn't have keyboard focus until I click on the box.  Could that be changed?  I want to be able to click 'red' then immediately type '27' rather than having to click the text entry box first.

[libertaad]

For roulette, the "bet per click" is getting reset to 1 every time I spin.

Ah yes, this is indeed a bug. We have a fix which we'll be pushing out shortly shortly. Thanks!

What's your username on bitZino? I'll comp you some BTC for helping to find this bug.

I agree.  That's a fantastic interface.  I like how you pare the games down to the bare essentials rather than trying to reproduce the physical games.

Thanks

* I'm not sure about outlining winning bets in red.  Red's somehow a "losing" colour for me, and also suggests something about the red/black result.  I'd pick a colour that isn't red or black.  Perhaps a light (white, cyan, yellow?) colour.  I mean the red outline on the '36' below:

Yeah, now that I think about it, I agree, red is associated with losing. I like your suggestion of white instead, it looks pretty good.

* When I click on the table it places a bet of '1'.  I'd like to be able to click again in the same spot to increment the bet.  So if I want to bet '3', I could just click 3 times.  Currently I have to click once then target the little '+1' button which isn't even always in the same position relative to where I clicked.  Sometimes it's above and sometimes it's below the mouse cursor.

This makes a lot of sense. I'll make this change. The only thing to consider is how to easily close the popup (since that's the current behavior of re-clicking). You can actually just click anywhere on the table to close it, but that's not necessarily obvious. I think I'll add a 'X' to the top right.

Also I'd like to see the 'x2 +1 -1 1/2' buttons next to the 'bet per click' box, just like there are for the bet sizing box for blackjack.

Yeah, this does actually make sense. We're going to have to re-think the popup box somewhat though - I don't want to make it too much bigger. We'll see what we can come up with.

I comped you a quarter BTC, Dooglus for being so helpful with the bug reports and suggestions. Keep it coming though!

Thanks for the feedback everyone, and keep it coming! I love launching new features to this forum, you guys are great!

[casascius]

Please spellcheck the OP, "featuring" should have an A in it.  In casino software, the details matter, and this is an easy fix.

[casascius]

Some more ideas for your Roulette UI after a little bit of playing:

1. the popup menu when you place a chip.  This should be gotten rid of for single clicks.  Lots of players like to just throw chips on number spots, and this popup menu gets in the way of just joy-clicking the table.  However, it would make sense for the popup menu to appear if a user has clicked an existing bet, so they can declare whether they are removing it or changing it.

Example behavior: on the spot "27": first click should place 1 chip there (or current setting of "Bet per click") and nothing more.  Second click should place a second chip there (balance permitting), as well as pop up the menu.  Each additional click on the same spot should increase the bet by 1xBetPerClick.

2. Allow bets to be dragged around on the table, including dragging a bet to "my chips" to remove it from the table.

3. make the wheel spin slower by default, but add an option so it can be sped up or the spinning "skipped" directly to the end result with a click.

4. when mousing over Repeat Last, show what bets are about to be Repeated using transparency.

5. Lengthen the fade time for losing bets - or put a delay in front of it.  They fade away too fast for you to go and see "what you did wrong" (rhetorically of course) or how "close" you were.

[libertaad]

Please spellcheck the OP, "featuring" should have an A in it.  In casino software, the details matter, and this is an easy fix.

Yikes! I agree - details definitely matter, and I don't want to send the wrong impression with such a silly spelling mistake.

It's fixed now Thanks!

[libertaad]

Some more ideas for your Roulette UI after a little bit of playing:

1. the popup menu when you place a chip.  This should be gotten rid of for single clicks.  Lots of players like to just throw chips on number spots, and this popup menu gets in the way of just joy-clicking the table.  However, it would make sense for the popup menu to appear if a user has clicked an existing bet, so they can declare whether they are removing it or changing it.

Example behavior: on the spot "27": first click should place 1 chip there (or current setting of "Bet per click") and nothing more.  Second click should place a second chip there (balance permitting), as well as pop up the menu.  Each additional click on the same spot should increase the bet by 1xBetPerClick.

I like this idea a lot. Overall this just seems like a much smoother flow. I'll implement this. Along with Dooglus's recommendations above, I think the overall flow for betting will be much better once we make these changes.

2. Allow bets to be dragged around on the table, including dragging a bet to "my chips" to remove it from the table.

This one may be tough. I think it could potentially get confusing for users too. I'll do some experimentation though and see if it's workable.

3. make the wheel spin slower by default, but add an option so it can be sped up or the spinning "skipped" directly to the end result with a click.

This makes sense.

This fits with a long-standing issue we've been meaning to address which is just providing general animation options for all of our games (ie, fast/slow/no animations).

4. when mousing over Repeat Last, show what bets are about to be Repeated using transparency.

I'll experiment with this. I suspect it could potentially be confusing/overwhelming (I generally don't like to have too much stuff happen on mouseover). You can also always click the "Repeat" button, and then click "Clear" to effectively see a preview.

5. Lengthen the fade time for losing bets - or put a delay in front of it.  They fade away too fast for you to go and see "what you did wrong" (rhetorically of course) or how "close" you were.

This makes sense. I'll do it.

Thanks for the detailed feedback! I added a quarter BTC to your account to show my appreciation

[libertaad]

When I click on a number to bet, there's a box I can type into to edit the bet size.  It doesn't have keyboard focus until I click on the box.  Could that be changed?  I want to be able to click 'red' then immediately type '27' rather than having to click the text entry box first.

I just realize I never really addressed this in my last post.

We had this behavior at first, but it was really bad on mobile devices, because it brought up the onscreen keyboard, which blocked half the screen. However, I agree that it would be nice on non-mobile devices to have this behavior. I'll see if I can get this to behave ideally on both.

[ErebusBat]

When I click on a number to bet, there's a box I can type into to edit the bet size.  It doesn't have keyboard focus until I click on the box.  Could that be changed?  I want to be able to click 'red' then immediately type '27' rather than having to click the text entry box first.

I just realize I never really addressed this in my last post.

We had this behavior at first, but it was really bad on mobile devices, because it brought up the onscreen keyboard, which blocked half the screen. However, I agree that it would be nice on non-mobile devices to have this behavior. I'll see if I can get this to behave ideally on both.

Also, and you may already do this, can you data tag the field so that only the numeric keys show on mobile devices?


EDIT:  Here is a link: http://stackoverflow.com/questions/6753600/iphone-development-how-to-display-a-numeric-keyboard

[casascius]

The video poker has a bug - if you press the Bet button while it is greyed out (because you're supposed to hit Draw), the game malfunctions with the following message: Out of Sync You have modified this table in another window Your previous action has not been taken. This table has been refreshed, and you can now continue playing.

A large number of video poker games have the bet/draw button be the same or in the same position, so it is natural to want to click the same position after choosing which cards to hold.

[libertaad]

Also, and you may already do this, can you data tag the field so that only the numeric keys show on mobile devices?


EDIT:  Here is a link: http://stackoverflow.com/questions/6753600/iphone-development-how-to-display-a-numeric-keyboard

That's a great idea. We don't do that yet, but we definitely should be! We'll add it shortly.

The video poker has a bug - if you press the Bet button while it is greyed out (because you're supposed to hit Draw), the game malfunctions with the following message: Out of Sync You have modified this table in another window Your previous action has not been taken. This table has been refreshed, and you can now continue playing.

A large number of video poker games have the bet/draw button be the same or in the same position, so it is natural to want to click the same position after choosing which cards to hold.

Yikes! That was a bug that got introduced when we launched roulette. Fortunately it was just a display bug. It's been fixed now!

We also pushed out some of the minor bug fixes and tweaks discussed earlier:
- Bet per click is now correctly remembered between hands.
- Reclicking on a bet will increment the bet, rather than dismissing the popup.
  -We decided to not do the change where we only show the popup on the second click - it turned out that this was somewhat of a confusing flow - it was non-obvious why the popup would show sometimes and not other times.
  -We also tweaked the behavior so that the bet is not incremented if the popup isn't already showing unless it's the first click. This allows you to click on a bet to make edits to it without having the bet be modified first.
- The input box gets focus automatically when the bet popup appears (only on non-mobile devices).
- The style of winning bets is changed to have a white drop shadow instead of a red shadow.

Still to do today is some animation timing tweaks, as well as experimentation with hover effects.

Thanks for all the feedback, and keep it coming!

[IveBeenBit]

I haven't played your roulette yet, but I just wanted to say thank you for the explanation of how you assess risk of ruin. I found it very interesting.