ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[empoweoqwj]

Already priced in that ridiculously low shareprice. That's why prices go up.

0.3 BTC/share @ $1000 USD/BTC, with 400,000 shares:

0.3 * $1000 * 400,000 = $120M

Obviously this company is undervalued  

At 2-20ph people have calculated that this would allow AM to reach 10% of the network hashrate or 1btc/share.

I know you are being sarcastic but $120m is still a low evaluation considering that last years profits were twice that.

Nobody is questioning last year's performance, it was great. The question is how it will do in the future. Gen2 utterly failed. While I have great hope for Gen3, we have to factor in that it could just as easily fail as well. We won't know if it succeeds or fails for months, and in the meantime, wall we have to look forward to is dismal dividends and no provable progress. And of course we are all trusting some Chinese guy who won't even reveal his real name. So, yeah, there are some major risk factors.

Gen2 didn't "utterly fail" - they chose not to go ahead with that technology because the advantages weren't great enough. It was a strategic decision. If you really believe the chances of Gen3 failing are the same as (non-existent) Gen2 then you should sell, sell, sell.

Nobody moans about FC "not giving his real name" when the dividends are piling in do they 

[User705]

Who here honestly believes that FC real name isn't known to dozens if not hundreds of people?  Small/regular shareholders don't but it's not like he could disappear one day without his name and everything else about him almost instantly revealed.

[chriswilmer]

Am I the only one who is concerned about 10 ph being not nearly enough? I think it will probably be fine until Aug. 2014... but that's not a long time from now. What comes next?

[empoweoqwj]

Am I the only one who is concerned about 10 ph being not nearly enough? I think it will probably be fine until Aug. 2014... but that's not a long time from now. What comes next?

He said 2-20 ph was the initial deployment, that's all.

[Voodah]

Am I the only one who is concerned about 10 ph being not nearly enough? I think it will probably be fine until Aug. 2014... but that's not a long time from now. What comes next?

He said 2-20 ph was the initial deployment, that's all.

I see an assembly line, stretching as far as the eye can see. Building liquid cooled hashing containers, to be deployed as difficulty increase rides up the parabolic curve.    
I have foretold it. Make it so  

Then you would be dreaming.

He just said focus would shift more and more to chip making and distribution. That is another way to say they do not want to bothered about the non-intelectual property stuff that anyone can do.

That's the whole point of immersion cooling. The contents can be easily upgraded. Miners will have to absorb the cost of the casing and cooling hardware, which will presumably allow them to use it for more than one gen.

AM can focus on it's unique talent, making chips. 3rd parties will pop up to provide cards that use the chips, casings and coolings.

EDIT: think Intel like...

[Vycid]

Am I the only one who is concerned about 10 ph being not nearly enough? I think it will probably be fine until Aug. 2014... but that's not a long time from now. What comes next?

He said 2-20 ph was the initial deployment, that's all.

I see an assembly line, stretching as far as the eye can see. Building liquid cooled hashing containers, to be deployed as difficulty increase rides up the parabolic curve.    
I have foretold it. Make it so  

Then you would be dreaming.

He just said focus would shift more and more to chip making and distribution. That is another way to say they do not want to bothered about the non-intelectual property stuff that anyone can do.

That's the whole point of immersion cooling. The contents can be easily upgraded. Miners will have to absorb the cost of the casing and cooling hardware, which will presumably allow them to use it for more than one gen.

AM can focus on it's unique talent, making chips. 3rd parties will pop up to provide cards that use the chips, casings and coolings.

EDIT: think Intel like...

This is a terrible idea, since it will take zero effort for Intel to start doing everything they're doing, except better.

AM's value proposition is maximized as a vertically-integrated mining hardware manufacturer.

[Jutarul]

This is a terrible idea, since it will take zero effort for Intel to start doing everything they're doing, except better.

AM's value proposition is maximized as a vertically-integrated mining hardware manufacturer.

The strategy is likely to be twofold. Chips for wholesale and devices for direct sales/franchise/deployment.

You're correct. The value proposition of AM is that they are more or less fully integrated (infrastructure wise) from design to turning it on.

[hak8or]

Here is what I am thinking. Since they have been dabbling in immersion cooling, which allows for high density units, it does not make sense for them to ditch that and instead just sell chips. I think they will do sell mining hardware in the form of units that just need power, and then have an inlet and an outlet for fluid. These units would be like shipping containers, when you buy them it shows up at your facility, you connect the pipes and pumps and power, and use your own radiators, and you have a multi terahash miner.

[empoweoqwj]

Am I the only one who is concerned about 10 ph being not nearly enough? I think it will probably be fine until Aug. 2014... but that's not a long time from now. What comes next?

He said 2-20 ph was the initial deployment, that's all.

I see an assembly line, stretching as far as the eye can see. Building liquid cooled hashing containers, to be deployed as difficulty increase rides up the parabolic curve.    
I have foretold it. Make it so  

Then you would be dreaming.

He just said focus would shift more and more to chip making and distribution. That is another way to say they do not want to bothered about the non-intelectual property stuff that anyone can do.

That's the whole point of immersion cooling. The contents can be easily upgraded. Miners will have to absorb the cost of the casing and cooling hardware, which will presumably allow them to use it for more than one gen.

AM can focus on it's unique talent, making chips. 3rd parties will pop up to provide cards that use the chips, casings and coolings.

EDIT: think Intel like...

This is a terrible idea, since it will take zero effort for Intel to start doing everything they're doing, except better.

AM's value proposition is maximized as a vertically-integrated mining hardware manufacturer.

Intel have got better things to do with their time than make bitcoin mining hardware.

[empoweoqwj]

Here is what I am thinking. Since they have been dabbling in immersion cooling, which allows for high density units, it does not make sense for them to ditch that and instead just sell chips. I think they will do sell mining hardware in the form of units that just need power, and then have an inlet and an outlet for fluid. These units would be like shipping containers, when you buy them it shows up at your facility, you connect the pipes and pumps and power, and use your own radiators, and you have a multi terahash miner.

I don't remember saying they are ditching immersion cooling. I'm sure it is a core component in their future plans.

[Vycid]

Am I the only one who is concerned about 10 ph being not nearly enough? I think it will probably be fine until Aug. 2014... but that's not a long time from now. What comes next?

He said 2-20 ph was the initial deployment, that's all.

I see an assembly line, stretching as far as the eye can see. Building liquid cooled hashing containers, to be deployed as difficulty increase rides up the parabolic curve.    
I have foretold it. Make it so  

Then you would be dreaming.

He just said focus would shift more and more to chip making and distribution. That is another way to say they do not want to bothered about the non-intelectual property stuff that anyone can do.

That's the whole point of immersion cooling. The contents can be easily upgraded. Miners will have to absorb the cost of the casing and cooling hardware, which will presumably allow them to use it for more than one gen.

AM can focus on it's unique talent, making chips. 3rd parties will pop up to provide cards that use the chips, casings and coolings.

EDIT: think Intel like...

This is a terrible idea, since it will take zero effort for Intel to start doing everything they're doing, except better.

AM's value proposition is maximized as a vertically-integrated mining hardware manufacturer.

Intel have got better things to do with their time than make bitcoin mining hardware.

This is becoming a billion-dollar-a-year industry. I assure you the major chip houses are taking interest.

Also, Intel has begun to do custom silicon recently, following AMD's lead.

[Voodah]

- How will Gen 3 be divided between mining, franchising and hardware sales?
  It depends on the users of our chips. It is a safe bet that we will be moving more to pure chip distribution. But if the edge of low cost on whole devices and deploying still exists in 2014 on our side, we will do more mining/franchising/hardware sales ourselves.

He said it himself. Notice even the word "pure".

I don't know why are you guys so keen on dismissing that.

I'm not saying it will be in this next deployment, but it will happen.

AM value proposition might be good as a vertically-integrated mining hardware manufacturer today, but when planning for the future and looking at the company numbers, things may be different.

[Vycid]

- How will Gen 3 be divided between mining, franchising and hardware sales?
  It depends on the users of our chips. It is a safe bet that we will be moving more to pure chip distribution. But if the edge of low cost on whole devices and deploying still exists in 2014 on our side, we will do more mining/franchising/hardware sales ourselves.

He said it himself. Notice even the word "pure".

I don't know why are you guys so keen on dismissing that.

I'm not saying it will be in this next deployment, but it will happen.

AM value proposition might be good as a vertically-integrated mining hardware manufacturer today, but when planning for the future and looking at the company numbers, things may be different.

So what are you implying, that FC is expecting and planning for a future in which AM can better design and more cheaply manufacture Bitcoin ASICs than a major player like Intel, AMD, NVIDIA or Marvell? Even the smaller players like Cypress are likely to outperform in terms of both chip efficiency and cost per wafer (and are likely to jump in sooner).

Bitcoin mining is within spitting distance of becoming a serious market for the big players.

I would suggest that it is actually in ASICMiner's interest that Bitcoin does not grow beyond it's current market cap for many years.

[jimmothy]

- How will Gen 3 be divided between mining, franchising and hardware sales?
  It depends on the users of our chips. It is a safe bet that we will be moving more to pure chip distribution. But if the edge of low cost on whole devices and deploying still exists in 2014 on our side, we will do more mining/franchising/hardware sales ourselves.

He said it himself. Notice even the word "pure".

I don't know why are you guys so keen on dismissing that.

I'm not saying it will be in this next deployment, but it will happen.

AM value proposition might be good as a vertically-integrated mining hardware manufacturer today, but when planning for the future and looking at the company numbers, things may be different.

So what are you implying, that FC is expecting and planning for a future in which AM can better design and more cheaply manufacture Bitcoin ASICs than a major player like Intel, AMD, NVIDIA or Marvell? Even the smaller players like Cypress are likely to outperform in terms of both chip efficiency and cost per wafer (and are likely to jump in sooner).

Bitcoin mining is within spitting distance of becoming a serious market for the big players.

I would suggest that it is actually in ASICMiner's interest that Bitcoin does not grow beyond it's current market cap for many years.

What makes you think that a "major player" can just jump in to this untested industry that has been around for only a year. And even if they did it is not like they have a huge advantage over the cost efficiency china can provide. Many mobile cpus from china are extremely cheap and powerful.

If intel decided to put as much resources as they put in to cpu development in to creating an asic then surely they could create the best device around I have no doubt about that. But it is complete speculation to assume that any of the major players will jump in to the asic arms war so early and by the time they do, asicminer will already have a firm grip on the market.

Whatever the case I believe FC knows what he is doing and will decide the most profitable route when the time comes. I am just hoping that they come out with a cube v2 using next gen chips so I can buy one.

I have no doubt that dividends from now until the time AM is overrun by intel will be more than 0.3btc.

[Voodah]

- How will Gen 3 be divided between mining, franchising and hardware sales?
  It depends on the users of our chips. It is a safe bet that we will be moving more to pure chip distribution. But if the edge of low cost on whole devices and deploying still exists in 2014 on our side, we will do more mining/franchising/hardware sales ourselves.

He said it himself. Notice even the word "pure".

I don't know why are you guys so keen on dismissing that.

I'm not saying it will be in this next deployment, but it will happen.

AM value proposition might be good as a vertically-integrated mining hardware manufacturer today, but when planning for the future and looking at the company numbers, things may be different.

So what are you implying, that FC is expecting and planning for a future in which AM can better design and more cheaply manufacture Bitcoin ASICs than a major player like Intel, AMD, NVIDIA or Marvell? Even the smaller players like Cypress are likely to outperform in terms of both chip efficiency and cost per wafer (and are likely to jump in sooner).

Bitcoin mining is within spitting distance of becoming a serious market for the big players.

I would suggest that it is actually in ASICMiner's interest that Bitcoin does not grow beyond it's current market cap for many years.

You clearly misunderstand how a company like Intel works.

They have roadmaps that go as far as 25 years into the future and even more. They do not just watch BTC price grow, get curious, flip a switch and BOOM, they're shitting ASICs. It doesn't work that way. They are also a publicly traded company, not a one-man "I make all the decisions" show.

Besides, there is the fact that they are already making chips for >75% of the world's population. Why would they switch to what is, in comparison, a minuscule market such as Bitcoin?

Yes, it may not be minuscule in the future, but for Intel that would mean changing their whole game plan on a big if, and furthermore, they would have to change it years in advance to be successful.

AM knows this. By not taking the a quick bold risk (even if the CEO wanted; being a public company, they probably couldn't) and hopping onto the ASIC business Intel and AMD, have given Friedcat not only the early advantage, but also the assurance, that he has 5-10 years clearance to make sure he makes good use of that advantage.

If you're reasoning were true, Nvidia wouldn't exist today, or any other chip maker as far as it matters.

EDIT: Also, I remember reading somewhere sometime ago about Intel publicly dismissing getting into ASIC, but I cannot find evidence so don't quote me on that, may just be FUD.

EDIT2: After rereading, I realized this is in fact how all big tech companies fall. They get too big to the point where bureaucracy prevents them from adapting as fast as they need.

[101111]

EDIT2: After rereading, I realized this is in fact how all big tech companies fall. They get too big to the point where bureaucracy prevents them from adapting as fast as they need.

google intel skunkworks and report back

[Vycid]

- How will Gen 3 be divided between mining, franchising and hardware sales?
  It depends on the users of our chips. It is a safe bet that we will be moving more to pure chip distribution. But if the edge of low cost on whole devices and deploying still exists in 2014 on our side, we will do more mining/franchising/hardware sales ourselves.

He said it himself. Notice even the word "pure".

I don't know why are you guys so keen on dismissing that.

I'm not saying it will be in this next deployment, but it will happen.

AM value proposition might be good as a vertically-integrated mining hardware manufacturer today, but when planning for the future and looking at the company numbers, things may be different.

So what are you implying, that FC is expecting and planning for a future in which AM can better design and more cheaply manufacture Bitcoin ASICs than a major player like Intel, AMD, NVIDIA or Marvell? Even the smaller players like Cypress are likely to outperform in terms of both chip efficiency and cost per wafer (and are likely to jump in sooner).

Bitcoin mining is within spitting distance of becoming a serious market for the big players.

I would suggest that it is actually in ASICMiner's interest that Bitcoin does not grow beyond it's current market cap for many years.

You clearly misunderstand how a company like Intel works.

They have roadmaps that go as far as 25 years into the future and even more. They do not just watch BTC price grow, get curious, flip a switch and BOOM, they're shitting ASICs. It doesn't work that way. They are also a publicly traded company, not a one-man "I make all the decisions" show.

Besides, there is the fact that they are already making chips for >75% of the world's population. Why would they switch to what is, in comparison, a minuscule market such as Bitcoin?

Yes, it may not be minuscule in the future, but for Intel that would mean changing their whole game plan on a big if, and furthermore, they would have to change it years in advance to be successful.

AM knows this. By not taking the a quick bold risk (even if the CEO wanted; being a public company, they probably couldn't) and hopping onto the ASIC business Intel and AMD, have given Friedcat not only the early advantage, but also the assurance, that he has 5-10 years clearance to make sure he makes good use of that advantage.

If you're reasoning were true, Nvidia wouldn't exist today, or any other chip maker as far as it matters.

EDIT: Also, I remember reading somewhere sometime ago about Intel publicly dismissing getting into ASIC, but I cannot find evidence so don't quote me on that, may just be FUD.

EDIT2: After rereading, I realized this is in fact how all big tech companies fall. They get too big to the point where bureaucracy prevents them from adapting as fast as they need.

sigh

I work in this industry. The roadmaps you are talking about refer to their core businesses (logic for Intel), but that doesn't mean they don't do anything else. There are also industry-wide roadmaps for process nodes, technology inflections and wafer size transitions.

A company like Intel would do the market study, and if they liked how it looked they'd just set up a small experimental BU, which would crank out a design in a couple months and shit out a few million chips. If they failed to find sustaining sales volume they'd write it off and the loss would be minuscule, pretty much just a few months wages for a dozen engineers and a little bit of fab time at a prior-generation node.

Size also doesn't stop a company like Cypress, who will more aggressively go after small markets. Also, TJ Rogers probably loves Bitcoin, so that helps.

FC's team is competent, but I don't think they compare to the engineers at any of these companies - or the rapid access to cheap volume manufacturing at modern nodes. That's the reality.

[Voodah]

That's the reality.

Only it's not. If it were so, we'd have Intel miners on every house.

Do you have one?

[Vycid]

That's the reality.

Only it's not. If it were so, we'd have Intel miners on every house.

Do you have one?

3 months ago the Bitcoin mining revenue wasn't a billion dollars a year. So no.

You're misunderstanding, also - it wouldn't be an Intel miner. It'd be an Intel ASIC - the actual miner (PCB, cooling solution, PSU, etc) would be assembled by other companies (or enterprising individuals), and those entities would be Intel's customers.

[Whtwabbit]

That's the reality.

Only it's not. If it were so, we'd have Intel miners on every house.

Do you have one?

3 months ago the Bitcoin mining revenue wasn't a billion dollars a year. So no.

You're misunderstanding, also - it wouldn't be an Intel miner. It'd be an Intel ASIC - the actual miner (PCB, cooling solution, PSU, etc) would be assembled by other companies (or enterprising individuals), and those entities would be Intel's customers.

Intel sounds like a great investment