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Author Topic: ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It  (Read 3901586 times)
twbt
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November 25, 2013, 03:19:32 AM
 #15461

That's what I was thinking. It's currently a big arbitrage opportunity. I'm extremely sad I'm not holding shares right now because that's free money.

Really? I don't see how. The auction price is below the exchange price (0.29 v 0.37) but there's no telling where it will end up in a week.

When Seb lowered his starting bid to 0.29 it sucked the market down from ~0.45 to ~0.37. Holding shares at the moment seems like a bad situation. You've got little prospect of any price jump while the auction is running, unless bidders are interested in paying more than where the exchange price was at the start of the auction.

But you are as bright as a button so tell me where I've gone wrong.

Seb is selling 1240 1320 shares at an auction start price of .29 .4 each (as of the first auction, now it's .29). I think that's something like 0.75% of publicly traded shares 10% of Havelock? There are only 13381 AM1 shares on Havelock, for comparison.

The Havelock volume in the last month was 6970 shares. If total monthly volume is 6970 and 1240 1320 shares are suddenly offered at 25% below market, the price is going to go down globally - possibly even more than 25%. We'll see how much demand there is.

So if you're holding shares on Havelock, it seems like a simple matter to sell your shares and bid on Seb's auction. Your alternative is holding those shares as the Havelock price drops.

Anyone who acted quickly to sell their Havelock shares and bid in the auction will almost certainly increase their net shares, courtesy of Seb's slippage.

It's funny seeing you counting the wrong numbers to the right result, Vycid. Cheesy

I'd appreciate it if you'd correct any incorrect numbers or assumptions.

Tried to.

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November 25, 2013, 03:31:13 AM
Last edit: November 25, 2013, 03:56:35 AM by User705
 #15462

That's what I was thinking. It's currently a big arbitrage opportunity. I'm extremely sad I'm not holding shares right now because that's free money.

Really? I don't see how. The auction price is below the exchange price (0.29 v 0.37) but there's no telling where it will end up in a week.

When Seb lowered his starting bid to 0.29 it sucked the market down from ~0.45 to ~0.37. Holding shares at the moment seems like a bad situation. You've got little prospect of any price jump while the auction is running, unless bidders are interested in paying more than where the exchange price was at the start of the auction.

But you are as bright as a button so tell me where I've gone wrong.

Seb is selling 1240 shares at an auction start price of .29 each. I think that's something like 0.75% of publicly traded shares? There are only 13381 AM1 shares on Havelock, for comparison.

The Havelock volume in the last month was 6970 shares. If total monthly volume is 6970 and 1240 shares are suddenly offered at 25% below market, the price is going to go down globally - possibly even more than 25%. We'll see how much demand there is.

So if you're holding shares on Havelock, it seems like a simple matter to sell your shares and bid on Seb's auction. Your alternative is holding those shares as the Havelock price drops.

Anyone who acted quickly to sell their Havelock shares and bid in the auction will almost certainly increase their net shares, courtesy of Seb's slippage.
Lots of assumptions there.  You assume you can win the auction at a lower price than you sell on havelock and then assume the deal closes even if you do win.  

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November 25, 2013, 03:33:29 AM
 #15463

That's what I was thinking. It's currently a big arbitrage opportunity. I'm extremely sad I'm not holding shares right now because that's free money.

Really? I don't see how. The auction price is below the exchange price (0.29 v 0.37) but there's no telling where it will end up in a week.

When Seb lowered his starting bid to 0.29 it sucked the market down from ~0.45 to ~0.37. Holding shares at the moment seems like a bad situation. You've got little prospect of any price jump while the auction is running, unless bidders are interested in paying more than where the exchange price was at the start of the auction.

But you are as bright as a button so tell me where I've gone wrong.

Seb is selling 1240 1320 shares at an auction start price of .29 .4 each (as of the first auction, now it's .29). I think that's something like 0.75% of publicly traded shares 10% of Havelock? There are only 13381 AM1 shares on Havelock, for comparison.

The Havelock volume in the last month was 6970 shares. If total monthly volume is 6970 and 1240 1320 shares are suddenly offered at 25% below market, the price is going to go down globally - possibly even more than 25%. We'll see how much demand there is.

So if you're holding shares on Havelock, it seems like a simple matter to sell your shares and bid on Seb's auction. Your alternative is holding those shares as the Havelock price drops.

Anyone who acted quickly to sell their Havelock shares and bid in the auction will almost certainly increase their net shares, courtesy of Seb's slippage.

It's funny seeing you counting the wrong numbers to the right result, Vycid. Cheesy

I'd appreciate it if you'd correct any incorrect numbers or assumptions.

Tried to.

 Cheesy the auction is indeed for 1320, oops.

Net public shares are in the neighborhood of 164,000, with a total of 400,000 including those held by BitFountain, so 0.75% was correct.

Lots of assumptions there.  You assume you can win the auction at a lower price then you sell on havelock and then assume the deal closes even if you do win.  

Slippage is not really an assumption, and I think Seb is considered trustworthy. It seems to me like the clear best course of action, maybe it's not that clear to others.

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November 25, 2013, 03:41:58 AM
 #15464

That's what I was thinking. It's currently a big arbitrage opportunity. I'm extremely sad I'm not holding shares right now because that's free money.

Really? I don't see how. The auction price is below the exchange price (0.29 v 0.37) but there's no telling where it will end up in a week.

When Seb lowered his starting bid to 0.29 it sucked the market down from ~0.45 to ~0.37. Holding shares at the moment seems like a bad situation. You've got little prospect of any price jump while the auction is running, unless bidders are interested in paying more than where the exchange price was at the start of the auction.

But you are as bright as a button so tell me where I've gone wrong.

Seb is selling 1240 shares at an auction start price of .29 each. I think that's something like 0.75% of publicly traded shares? There are only 13381 AM1 shares on Havelock, for comparison.

The Havelock volume in the last month was 6970 shares. If total monthly volume is 6970 and 1240 shares are suddenly offered at 25% below market, the price is going to go down globally - possibly even more than 25%. We'll see how much demand there is.

So if you're holding shares on Havelock, it seems like a simple matter to sell your shares and bid on Seb's auction. Your alternative is holding those shares as the Havelock price drops.

Anyone who acted quickly to sell their Havelock shares and bid in the auction will almost certainly increase their net shares, courtesy of Seb's slippage.
Lots of assumptions there.  You assume you can win the auction at a lower price then you sell on havelock and then assume the deal closes even if you do win. 

How about think in this way: what will happen in a very small market when the supply suddenly increases by 1320 shares? Do you think the demand will increase as much in just a week? I think there's a very obvious answer. In my opinion, those who haven't withdrawn their bids definitely haven't seen that auction yet.
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November 25, 2013, 03:47:13 AM
 #15465

Net public shares are actually something like 164,000, with a total of 400,000 including those held by BitFountain, so that was correct.

1320 is about 10% of the 13381 shares currently traded at Havelock. So I would agree: Seb's auction will have a significant impact on the share prise there. Maybe it will drop > 25%.

How about think in this way: what will happen in a very small market when the supply suddenly increases by 1320 shares? Do you think the demand will increase as much in just a week? I think there's a very obvious answer. In my opinion, those who haven't withdrawn their bids definitely haven't seen that auction yet.

+1.

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November 25, 2013, 03:54:55 AM
 #15466

Anyone who acted quickly to sell their Havelock shares and bid in the auction will almost certainly increase their net shares, courtesy of Seb's slippage.

Thanks for the explanation. So the arb'ing opportunity hinges/hinged on:

  • reacting quickly to the news of the lowered price point
  • believing it's worth holding shares in this price range
  • seeing the auction fail to reach the exchange price when you sold (I believe it was around 0.45)

I see the price on Havelock is now down to 0.335. To me it's getting harder to believe that Seb's auction isn't affecting the market price, but I don't have a dog in the fight. Sure, it might subsequently go back to 30% APR or whatever *after* the auction, but during? The volume is too large.

If the 30% APR rule holds in the long run where does the share price go in February when the difficulty is 3-4 billion and AM is still on 130nm tech? That might be the time to buy.

 
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November 25, 2013, 03:58:20 AM
 #15467

Anyone who acted quickly to sell their Havelock shares and bid in the auction will almost certainly increase their net shares, courtesy of Seb's slippage.

Thanks for the explanation. So the arb'ing opportunity hinges/hinged on:

  • reacting quickly to the news of the lowered price point
  • believing it's worth holding shares in this price range
  • seeing the auction fail to reach the exchange price when you sold (I believe it was around 0.45)

I see the price on Havelock is now down to 0.335. To me it's getting harder to believe that Seb's auction isn't affecting the market price, but I don't have a dog in the fight. Sure, it might subsequently go back to 30% APR or whatever *after* the auction, but during? The volume is too large.

If the 30% APR rule holds in the long run where does the share price go in February when the difficulty is 3-4 billion and AM is still on 130nm tech? That might be the time to buy.

I don't know why everyone is so focused on sebs auction as whatever effect it has on the market it will not last long. He is basically just giving out money by selling them all in one batch.

I do agree that the best time to buy will be right before some good news on gen3 which will probably be a while.
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November 25, 2013, 08:10:39 AM
 #15468


I don't know why everyone is so focused on sebs auction as whatever effect it has on the market it will not last long. He is basically just giving out money by selling them all in one batch.

I do agree that the best time to buy will be right before some good news on gen3 which will probably be a while.

Giving out money, or raking in a quick $300k? If you need cash fast, wanna buy a house, whatever, why not? if he believes as you do that they can be snatched up for 1/2 price in a couple months, why not? If you don't want to access or disperse your main stash, or board seat,  selling a few spare shares for cash seems like a good plan Grin

I don't know his situation but I wonder who "needs" 300K US$ quickly and for what.

He could always auction a few and come back later, or try selling them in Havelock if that's possible (maybe agree to a % deal with them).

I believe 99% of the scenarios where this makes sense, are those where he believes the price will continue sinking, and fast.

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November 25, 2013, 08:19:38 AM
 #15469


I don't know why everyone is so focused on sebs auction as whatever effect it has on the market it will not last long. He is basically just giving out money by selling them all in one batch.

I do agree that the best time to buy will be right before some good news on gen3 which will probably be a while.

Giving out money, or raking in a quick $300k? If you need cash fast, wanna buy a house, whatever, why not? if he believes as you do that they can be snatched up for 1/2 price in a couple months, why not? If you don't want to access or disperse your main stash, or board seat,  selling a few spare shares for cash seems like a good plan Grin

I don't know his situation but I wonder who "needs" 300K US$ quickly and for what.

He could always auction a few and come back later, or try selling them in Havelock if that's possible (maybe agree to a % deal with them).

I believe 99% of the scenarios where this makes sense, are those where he believes the price will continue sinking, and fast.
I think Sebastian answered in his auction thread. He's in hurry to invest in a new project but he failed in getting BTC out of Weexchange, so selling AM in a large batch is his choice.  But yes I believe he has been frustrated by the condition of AM (we can see from Seb's previous posts) and this is definitely one of the major reasons.

Moreover, the price of AM will certainly continue sinking, unless there're some surprise from friedcat.
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November 25, 2013, 08:32:02 AM
 #15470


I don't know why everyone is so focused on sebs auction as whatever effect it has on the market it will not last long. He is basically just giving out money by selling them all in one batch.

I do agree that the best time to buy will be right before some good news on gen3 which will probably be a while.

Giving out money, or raking in a quick $300k? If you need cash fast, wanna buy a house, whatever, why not? if he believes as you do that they can be snatched up for 1/2 price in a couple months, why not? If you don't want to access or disperse your main stash, or board seat,  selling a few spare shares for cash seems like a good plan Grin

I don't know his situation but I wonder who "needs" 300K US$ quickly and for what.

He could always auction a few and come back later, or try selling them in Havelock if that's possible (maybe agree to a % deal with them).

I believe 99% of the scenarios where this makes sense, are those where he believes the price will continue sinking, and fast.
I think Sebastian answered in his auction thread. He's in hurry to invest in a new project but he failed in getting BTC out of Weexchange, so selling AM in a large batch is his choice.  But yes I believe he has been frustrated by the condition of AM (we can see from Seb's previous posts) and this is definitely one of the major reasons.

Moreover, the price of AM will certainly continue sinking, unless there're some surprise from friedcat.

It is possible that more gen1 chips are deployed from now until gen3.
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November 25, 2013, 08:40:06 AM
 #15471

Yes, it is possible but never mentioned by friedcat. I think he is worrying about the sales of Gen1 in 2014, but it seems the gen1 will still be profitable for a couple of months thanks to the current high BTC value. It is a difficult decision, considering the risk the BTC price drops a lot after a huge order of gen1 chips are made.
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November 25, 2013, 10:08:41 AM
 #15472

Hi,
anyone received their last div on bitfunder?
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November 25, 2013, 10:12:51 AM
 #15473

Yes. Divs have been prompt at BF lately, I have found. Weex however ...
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November 25, 2013, 10:14:37 AM
 #15474

Hi,
anyone received their last div on bitfunder?
No, I suppose no one. There are lot of problems with Ukyo/BF/WeEx.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=342122.msg3664826#msg3664826

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337523.msg3621482#msg3621482
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November 25, 2013, 10:30:07 AM
 #15475

oops, sorry no I just double checked, last div paid was 2013-11-14 00:22:45
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November 25, 2013, 11:18:05 AM
 #15476

I'd appreciate it if you'd correct any incorrect numbers or assumptions.

Your theory is flawed, because you assume that the final price per share from Sebastian will be 0.29. Currently 888 shares are already gone. A price well below "market rate" (Havelock price) usually attracts buyers very, very fast.


Anyway, I'd like to ask once again:

Was gen 2 "officially" droped or is the interview by the Chinese girl the only source for this?

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November 25, 2013, 01:24:12 PM
 #15477

I'd appreciate it if you'd correct any incorrect numbers or assumptions.

Your theory is flawed, because you assume that the final price per share from Sebastian will be 0.29. Currently 888 shares are already gone. A price well below "market rate" (Havelock price) usually attracts buyers very, very fast.


Anyway, I'd like to ask once again:

Was gen 2 "officially" droped or is the interview by the Chinese girl the only source for this?

Officially "droped"
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November 25, 2013, 03:03:37 PM
 #15478

I'd appreciate it if you'd correct any incorrect numbers or assumptions.

Your theory is flawed, because you assume that the final price per share from Sebastian will be 0.29. Currently 888 shares are already gone. A price well below "market rate" (Havelock price) usually attracts buyers very, very fast.


Anyway, I'd like to ask once again:

Was gen 2 "officially" droped or is the interview by the Chinese girl the only source for this?

If you don't know this thread, bookmark it:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=220837

Franktank is doing a great job centralizing official information and summarizing the news every quarters.

I'd advise any new investor in AM to read up every posts from friedcat since at least September, it's the only way to distinguish real info from reasonable speculation/crazy speculation/totally wrong stuff.

Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. 
This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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November 25, 2013, 03:35:01 PM
 #15479

If you don't know this thread, bookmark it:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=220837

Franktank is doing a great job centralizing official information and summarizing the news every quarters.

I'd advise any new investor in AM to read up every posts from friedcat since at least September, it's the only way to distinguish real info from reasonable speculation/crazy speculation/totally wrong stuff.

Yes, thanks, I know that thread. Great job by Franktank. And still I'm looking for the missing piece between:

Hardware Update
• Already shipped devices(Gen1, already shipped) were limited by quantity of the power chip supply we pre-ordered before two months.
• We made an order of another brand of power chips which are about two weeks late. In October this will provide another 500TH/s (Gen1).
• If any deal of ordering Gen1 chips from outside buyers via us is reached, additional orders will be made.
• The size of the Gen2 order will be decided as appropriate, according to the network difficulty when it is time to finalize the order size.

8. Financial Report
The next official ASICMINER Financial Report is scheduled to be released on October 20s. We had been in the process of accumulating reserves for a two-year-based small lab (all salaries) and a full mask cost for 40nm for one month. Additional income may be reserved for other chip advancements.

Next Gen Chips
The projected time of taping out of Gen3 is January 20. Power consumption target estimation is <0.2W per G on low power mode and <0.2$ per G on wafer cost. Please notice that the timeline is of course subject to change/adjust, and the estimation on power and cost is also based on software tool/simulation results.

Gen 2 was mentioned on Sep 24, it's unclear which generation the 40 nm belongs to and on Nov 22 gen 3 was announced. I don't see anything that explicitly says that there is no gen 2.

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November 25, 2013, 04:07:01 PM
 #15480

I think the future of ASICMINER now is really not in their own hands anymore, but depends on the competitors. We now have a vague timeline for Gen 3 chips (how "Gen 3" they are is up for debate); they will probably ship in March or April (providing Friedcat keeps to his promises). This is a huge amount of time in the Bitcoin world... if any competitors were to release a comparable product that actually shipped and was reliable, 1 to 2 months before ASICMINER gets finished, Friedcat is done for. I really have no idea why he sat on his ass after 'winning' Gen 1, but there you go. I'm not even sure who buys miners anymore when the difficulty is jumping so fast, if we could just go back to owning 10-15% of the network and getting good dividends every week, I would be more than happy. Focus on making good hardware and mining instead of packaging all this stuff, shipping it out, customer support, etc.
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