dvdrewritable
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February 07, 2014, 02:52:20 PM Last edit: February 08, 2014, 02:05:42 PM by dvdrewritable |
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I don't think anyone should be surprised to see extremely low (or no) divs until Gen3 rolls out.
The thing I worry about most is if FC is still 100% committed to AM or if he has developed a competing side-business that is unencumbered by external shareholders.
I know FC denied involvement. But the competitor similarities in hardware (Bitmain) and in mining behavior (Discus Fish) remain striking. So I feel we've only been told part of the story.
I've been thinking about this too, but what keeps from panicking too much is the amount of AsicMiner shares owned by Bitfountain. I think that screwing us keyboard shareholders would be one thing, but screwing the Bitfountain ones would be much more messier. Who is Bitfountain, actually? ![Huh](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/huh.gif) And, if you worry that Discus Fish is FC's side business, why not worry that Discus Fish might actually be Bitfountain's side business? a FC 'side business' -- '比特泉科技有限公司' 'Discus fish' is not
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MPOE-PR
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February 07, 2014, 06:42:04 PM |
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The only people who think switching over to decentralized exchanges is a bad idea are people who are heavily invested in centralized exchanges.
Think about all the hassle and headaches that have been caused by centralized exchanges:
glbse btct.co bitfunder
- ddos attacks
- relatively high fees for trading, withdrawing money
- long delays on withdraws
- exchanges asking for driver's license scans and other identifying information
- government intervention
The market will move towards decentralized exchanges, it is inevitable.
You're not talking about centralized exchanges, you're talking about idiocy pretending that a website theme and a lot of pretense will change nonsense into something real. Shockingly, that doesn't work. It won't work regardless of whatever new context you try to fit it in.
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DaFockBro
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February 07, 2014, 08:40:38 PM |
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The only people who think switching over to decentralized exchanges is a bad idea are people who are heavily invested in centralized exchanges.
Think about all the hassle and headaches that have been caused by centralized exchanges:
glbse btct.co bitfunder
- ddos attacks
- relatively high fees for trading, withdrawing money
- long delays on withdraws
- exchanges asking for driver's license scans and other identifying information
- government intervention
The market will move towards decentralized exchanges, it is inevitable.
You're not talking about centralized exchanges, you're talking about idiocy pretending that a website theme and a lot of pretense will change nonsense into something real. Shockingly, that doesn't work. It won't work regardless of whatever new context you try to fit it in. Your response to my post does not make sense. These were/are centralized bitcoin security exchanges: glbse btct.co bitfunder I was talking about centralized exchanges.
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jimmothy
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February 07, 2014, 10:16:05 PM |
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The only people who think switching over to decentralized exchanges is a bad idea are people who are heavily invested in centralized exchanges.
Think about all the hassle and headaches that have been caused by centralized exchanges:
glbse btct.co bitfunder
- ddos attacks
- relatively high fees for trading, withdrawing money
- long delays on withdraws
- exchanges asking for driver's license scans and other identifying information
- government intervention
The market will move towards decentralized exchanges, it is inevitable.
You're not talking about centralized exchanges, you're talking about idiocy pretending that a website theme and a lot of pretense will change nonsense into something real. Shockingly, that doesn't work. It won't work regardless of whatever new context you try to fit it in. Your response to my post does not make sense. These were/are centralized bitcoin security exchanges: glbse btct.co bitfunder I was talking about centralized exchanges. To translate mpoe pr's post: "Any centralized exchange besides mpex is a pretend play exchange because they don't have 30btc registration fees and an options trading bot. Stop using useful stock trading services like Havelock and give us your money because we are smarter than you." - mpoe pr Anyone with an IQ above 13 could see that decentralized exchanges would essentially make the only feature mpex offers (secure trading) obsolete. This ist assuming there are even still people who think mpex has a solid system for trading.
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glendall
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PredX - AI-Powered Prediction Market
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February 08, 2014, 12:15:05 AM |
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IT's been shown time after time that centralized exchanges are the biggest weakness in the world of bitcoin, and the most easily shut down by the governments or scam.
They are the weak link in the bitcoin infrastructure. It is almost a shame that bitcoin is P2P technology shackled to centralized exchanges.
How many exchanges have gone under, been shutdown, or been scams? Or hacked? Gox just locked up withdrawals. I lost money to Ukyo/ Bitfunder who gambled users deposits away.
I WAY rather trust software of a decentralized exchange than some exchange in Belarus that may at any day close.
Decentralized exchanges / colored coins are the only way to go. I think they are inevitable. But the good news for folks who don't care for them: centralized exchanges will still exist. So if you choose to go the more risky route of using a centralized exchange over a decentralized one, you will have that option.
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MPOE-PR
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February 08, 2014, 05:30:45 PM |
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Your response to my post does not make sense.
These were/are centralized bitcoin security exchanges: glbse btct.co bitfunder
I was talking about centralized exchanges.
It doesn't make sense to you because you've decided that three horribly managed play-pretend operations were actual exchanges. They weren't. The government has nothing to do with it. The problem isn't centralization. The problem is idiots, and that problem will follow you anywhere so long as you've got idiots involved. There's ample proof in my anthology link, if somehow your independent experience has failed to reveal to you this very basic fact of life.
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ZephramC
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February 08, 2014, 08:35:31 PM |
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To translate mpoe pr's post:
"Any centralized exchange besides mpex is a pretend play exchange because they don't have 30btc registration fees and an options trading bot. Stop using useful stock trading services like Havelock and give us your money because we are smarter than you." - mpoe pr
Anyone with an IQ above 13 could see that decentralized exchanges would essentially make the only feature mpex offers (secure trading) obsolete. This ist assuming there are even still people who think mpex has a solid system for trading.
I am almost sure that it is possible to find at least one person with IQ 15 who would not see (nor understand) this.
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Sledge
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February 08, 2014, 08:48:37 PM |
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The problem isn't centralization. The problem is idiots, and that problem will follow you anywhere so long as you've got idiots involved. There's ample proof in my anthology link, if somehow your independent experience has failed to reveal to you this very basic fact of life.
I think of all the smart asses on the Internet that I have see in the past few years, and you are the one with the biggest ego and superiority complex. Everyone is an idiot to you. Congratulations. In a way, I can't blame you, when there are people handing you 30 BTC just to register on your exchange.
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Lohoris
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February 08, 2014, 10:04:24 PM |
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when there are people handing you 30 BTC just to register on your exchange.
Are there? I strongly doubt anyone registered there during the last one or two years.
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supert
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February 08, 2014, 10:27:05 PM |
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The problem isn't centralization. The problem is idiots Same problem. Trust.
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Jutarul
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February 08, 2014, 10:35:26 PM |
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This is to inform that friedcat met with the board yesterday and provided some updates.
General Update ==========
The engineering team is working on increasing overall power and cost efficiency, which includes all aspects of keeping the miners running sustainably. Some of the cost efficiency aspects cover questions of insourcing vs. outsourcing which are being looked at. In highly integrated locations like China, outsourcing seems to be beneficial. If that trend continues, AM may be best served by choosing a "lean" operation.
The recent policy changes in China are less of a concern, because the operation is very mobile and can re-establish itself elsewhere quickly. The tape-out deadline has moved into the mid of Feb. The new deadline for an extensive report to the board as been moved to the end of this month. Expect an updated release of the balance sheet to the public at the same time.
Friedcat also indicated to release an updated product report after tape-out, which contains more technical details. The initial batch will be "relatively" small, but the chip production capacity can be described as "competitive", which should bring AM back on the scene quickly. Any bottleneck will likely not be the silicon, which means that partnerships become more important.
Specific Updates ===========
a ) Share transfer processing: Some of the share transfer requests were not processed for an extended time. Apparently the process is automized, but some emails get filtered into the Spam folder, so friedcat wasn't aware of the issue. If share transfer requests for any reason do not get processed, please inform one of the known board members to escalate the issue. It was recommended to code a submission website to remove the diversity in request submission.
b ) Submitted Questions: 1) What is the order of magnitude of 3rd generation chips ASICMiner anticipates to sell (total / first batch / first 3 months)? re 1) Order of magnitude: Depending on fab capacity. Total target is 10k to 40k wafers, relying on competitors, Bitcoin price, and other factors. A wafer is rated at 40 TH/s.
2) In the new chips announcement, friedcat stated that the chip prices will be based in USD. A rising BTC price would thus mean lower dividends - since less BTC to pay the dividends can be bought from the incoming payments. What happens when the BTC price - for example - doubles, will the price of the chips be adjusted accordingly? re 2) The price might be adjusted, but if possible it's better to enlarge the order size without making significantly price adjustments.
3) A continuation of mining would be an excellent hedge against a rising price of BTC if done by a company with access to chips at almost zero cost - like ASICMiner. How probable is a continuation of mining done directly by ASICMiner (or franchisees) and how will this be decided? re 3) Hedging against rising price of BTC is better implemented as buying Bitcoins as company assets and then pay them as dividends or reserve them.
4) What is the currently anticipated long-term strategy for ASICMiner after the 3rd generation? re 4) Long-term strategy is to follow the step of Moore's Law, while squeeze all possible efficiency out of each stage of chip design and production.
5) What is the status and capacity of the immersion-cooling data center, and will it house some of the 3rd generation hardware used for mining? re 5) Capacity is at least 1P. And yes it will be used.
Further Comment ============
Please note that some information is subject to change, as this is a very agile business. Please be careful when speculating on company valuation. Also expect a saturation of the hardware market if BTC price starts declining or stagnating. This means that hardware companies will likely accumulate a large stock of unprocessed silicon, which provides opportunities for ventures which offer quick turnaround times between receiving silicon and putting devices online.
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Chris_Sabian
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February 08, 2014, 10:44:18 PM Last edit: February 08, 2014, 11:06:27 PM by Chris_Sabian |
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Thanks for the update. Good to here the news
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Melbustus
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February 08, 2014, 10:54:26 PM |
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b ) Submitted Questions: 1) What is the order of magnitude of 3rd generation chips ASICMiner anticipates to sell (total / first batch / first 3 months)? re 1) Order of magnitude: Depending on fab capacity. Total target is 10k to 40k wafers, relying on competitors, Bitcoin price, and other factors. A wafer is rated at 40 TH/s.
Did I read that right? 10,000 - 40,000 wafers, at 40TH/s each, = 400 PH/s - 1600 PH/s total target gen3 capacity?
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Bitcoin is the first monetary system to credibly offer perfect information to all economic participants.
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jimmothy
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February 08, 2014, 11:14:49 PM |
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1ph immersion cooled datacenter sounds nice.
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asdfghj
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February 08, 2014, 11:16:44 PM |
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400 - 1600 PH * 0.49 - 0.9 $/Gh = $200M - $800M = 250k - 1M BTC
= .625 - 2.5 BTC/share
(Bitcoin value of sales drops as value of bitcoin increases.)
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jimmothy
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February 08, 2014, 11:25:04 PM |
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b ) Submitted Questions: 1) What is the order of magnitude of 3rd generation chips ASICMiner anticipates to sell (total / first batch / first 3 months)? re 1) Order of magnitude: Depending on fab capacity. Total target is 10k to 40k wafers, relying on competitors, Bitcoin price, and other factors. A wafer is rated at 40 TH/s.
Did I read that right? 10,000 - 40,000 wafers, at 40TH/s each, = 400 PH/s - 1600 PH/s total target gen3 capacity? That number can't be right. Last estimate was 2-20ph.
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Jutarul
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February 08, 2014, 11:46:43 PM |
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b ) Submitted Questions: 1) What is the order of magnitude of 3rd generation chips ASICMiner anticipates to sell (total / first batch / first 3 months)? re 1) Order of magnitude: Depending on fab capacity. Total target is 10k to 40k wafers, relying on competitors, Bitcoin price, and other factors. A wafer is rated at 40 TH/s.
Did I read that right? 10,000 - 40,000 wafers, at 40TH/s each, = 400 PH/s - 1600 PH/s total target gen3 capacity? That number can't be right. Last estimate was 2-20ph. Your estimate refers to the first batch. What is quoted is the expected overall production from gen3, which depends on the factors stated above. Obviously if bitcoin price collapses to $50, it doesn't make sense to produce lots of wavers and warehouse them.
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hdbuck
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February 08, 2014, 11:53:19 PM |
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b ) Submitted Questions: 1) What is the order of magnitude of 3rd generation chips ASICMiner anticipates to sell (total / first batch / first 3 months)? re 1) Order of magnitude: Depending on fab capacity. Total target is 10k to 40k wafers, relying on competitors, Bitcoin price, and other factors. A wafer is rated at 40 TH/s.
Did I read that right? 10,000 - 40,000 wafers, at 40TH/s each, = 400 PH/s - 1600 PH/s total target gen3 capacity? That number can't be right. Last estimate was 2-20ph. Your estimate refers to the first batch. What is quoted is the expected overall production from gen3, which depends on the factors stated above. Obviously if bitcoin price collapses to $50, it doesn't make sense to produce lots of wavers and warehouse them. 400-1600PH/s overall target... A M A Z I N G ![Shocked](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/shocked.gif) edit: @jutarul thx for keeping us in the loop ![Smiley](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/smiley.gif)
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eastpk
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February 08, 2014, 11:59:44 PM |
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If tape out is expected mid-February, does that push production at all?
Thank you for the update.
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GenTarkin
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February 09, 2014, 12:36:55 AM |
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thats not really amazing news at all.... 1600PH?!?! You realize, he just put the rest of all us miners out of fucking business. Yall should be outraged...not jumping up n down with joy!
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