ASICMINER: Entering the Future of ASIC Mining by Inventing It

[Chris_Sabian]

Thanks for the update.  Good to here the news

[Melbustus]

b ) Submitted Questions:
1) What is the order of magnitude of 3rd generation chips ASICMiner anticipates to sell (total / first batch / first 3 months)?
re 1) Order of magnitude: Depending on fab capacity. Total target is 10k to 40k wafers, relying on competitors, Bitcoin price, and other factors. A wafer is rated at 40 TH/s.

Did I read that right? 10,000 - 40,000 wafers, at 40TH/s each, = 400 PH/s - 1600 PH/s total target gen3 capacity?

[jimmothy]

1ph immersion cooled datacenter sounds nice.

[asdfghj]

400 - 1600 PH * 0.49 - 0.9 $/Gh
= $200M - $800M
= 250k - 1M BTC

= .625 - 2.5 BTC/share

(Bitcoin value of sales drops as value of bitcoin increases.)

[jimmothy]

b ) Submitted Questions:
1) What is the order of magnitude of 3rd generation chips ASICMiner anticipates to sell (total / first batch / first 3 months)?
re 1) Order of magnitude: Depending on fab capacity. Total target is 10k to 40k wafers, relying on competitors, Bitcoin price, and other factors. A wafer is rated at 40 TH/s.

Did I read that right? 10,000 - 40,000 wafers, at 40TH/s each, = 400 PH/s - 1600 PH/s total target gen3 capacity?

That number can't be right. Last estimate was 2-20ph.

[Jutarul]

b ) Submitted Questions:
1) What is the order of magnitude of 3rd generation chips ASICMiner anticipates to sell (total / first batch / first 3 months)?
re 1) Order of magnitude: Depending on fab capacity. Total target is 10k to 40k wafers, relying on competitors, Bitcoin price, and other factors. A wafer is rated at 40 TH/s.

Did I read that right? 10,000 - 40,000 wafers, at 40TH/s each, = 400 PH/s - 1600 PH/s total target gen3 capacity?

That number can't be right. Last estimate was 2-20ph.

Your estimate refers to the first batch. What is quoted is the expected overall production from gen3, which depends on the factors stated above. Obviously if bitcoin price collapses to $50, it doesn't make sense to produce lots of wavers and warehouse them.

[hdbuck]

b ) Submitted Questions:
1) What is the order of magnitude of 3rd generation chips ASICMiner anticipates to sell (total / first batch / first 3 months)?
re 1) Order of magnitude: Depending on fab capacity. Total target is 10k to 40k wafers, relying on competitors, Bitcoin price, and other factors. A wafer is rated at 40 TH/s.

Did I read that right? 10,000 - 40,000 wafers, at 40TH/s each, = 400 PH/s - 1600 PH/s total target gen3 capacity?

That number can't be right. Last estimate was 2-20ph.

Your estimate refers to the first batch. What is quoted is the expected overall production from gen3, which depends on the factors stated above. Obviously if bitcoin price collapses to $50, it doesn't make sense to produce lots of wavers and warehouse them.

400-1600PH/s overall target... A M A Z I N G  

edit: @jutarul thx for keeping us in the loop

[eastpk]

If tape out is expected mid-February, does that push production at all?

Thank you for the update.

[GenTarkin]

thats not really amazing news at all.... 1600PH?!?!
You realize, he just put the rest of all us miners out of fucking business. Yall should be outraged...not jumping up n down with joy!

[hdbuck]

thats not really amazing news at all.... 1600PH?!?!
You realize, he just put the rest of all us miners out of fucking business. Yall should be outraged...not jumping up n down with joy!

thats why i sold all my mining gear and bought AMshares

[jimmothy]

thats not really amazing news at all.... 1600PH?!?!
You realize, he just put the rest of all us miners out of fucking business. Yall should be outraged...not jumping up n down with joy!

thats why i sold all my mining gear and bought AMshares

1600ph would equate to 4th/share. Not bad

[Mabsark]

b ) Submitted Questions:
1) What is the order of magnitude of 3rd generation chips ASICMiner anticipates to sell (total / first batch / first 3 months)?
re 1) Order of magnitude: Depending on fab capacity. Total target is 10k to 40k wafers, relying on competitors, Bitcoin price, and other factors. A wafer is rated at 40 TH/s.

Did I read that right? 10,000 - 40,000 wafers, at 40TH/s each, = 400 PH/s - 1600 PH/s total target gen3 capacity?

That number can't be right. Last estimate was 2-20ph.

Your estimate refers to the first batch. What is quoted is the expected overall production from gen3, which depends on the factors stated above. Obviously if bitcoin price collapses to $50, it doesn't make sense to produce lots of wavers and warehouse them.

If that's the overall expected production for gen3, then an obvious question arises. When is gen4 expected? This year? Next year? Never?

If it's this year, then those numbers seem highly suspect. If the answer is never, then those numbers are meaningless. I'd say gen4 won't be out for a year or two going by those numbers, which would see the chips become pretty weak again compared to the competition. Aren't AM supposed to be working on gen4 already though? In which case, surely it won't take a year or two to be released and therefore AM won't be putting out anywhere near 1600 Ph/s.

Basically, those numbers are completely meaningless without knowing the lifetime of gen3.

[Melbustus]

thats not really amazing news at all.... 1600PH?!?!
You realize, he just put the rest of all us miners out of fucking business. Yall should be outraged...not jumping up n down with joy!

No offense, but it's been obvious for quite some time that mining was going to become an industrial-scale domain.

[jimmothy]

thats not really amazing news at all.... 1600PH?!?!
You realize, he just put the rest of all us miners out of fucking business. Yall should be outraged...not jumping up n down with joy!

No offense, but it's been obvious for quite some time that mining was going to become an industrial-scale domain.

Don't forget that many of these chips will be sold to miners.

I'm hoping they release a next gen cube and usb miners.

[freedomno1]

Still a pretty nice outlook AM does remain competitive if not all the year its does improve itself during cycles
Thanks Jutarul mid February isn't that far away gives it I guess 2 weeks in real AM time not BFL time 

[KeyserSozeMC]

What's the price per share?

Thanks

[dmcdad]

If that's the overall expected production for gen3, then an obvious question arises. When is gen4 expected? This year? Next year? Never?

If it's this year, then those numbers seem highly suspect. If the answer is never, then those numbers are meaningless. I'd say gen4 won't be out for a year or two going by those numbers, which would see the chips become pretty weak again compared to the competition. Aren't AM supposed to be working on gen4 already though? In which case, surely it won't take a year or two to be released and therefore AM won't be putting out anywhere near 1600 Ph/s.

Basically, those numbers are completely meaningless without knowing the lifetime of gen3.

No one knows how long gen3 will last, which is one of the reasons for the wide spread of quotes Ph/s. My guess is it will still be a viable (sellable) chip for 9 months to 2.5 years.

As to gen4, that was pretty clearly answered in Jutarul's update:

4) What is the currently anticipated long-term strategy for ASICMiner after the 3rd generation?
re 4) Long-term strategy is to follow the step of Moore's Law, while squeeze all possible efficiency out of each stage of chip design and production.

[empoweoqwj]

What's the price per share?

Thanks

https://www.havelockinvestments.com/order.php?symbol=AM1

[empoweoqwj]

Let's hope the value of BTC doesn't completely tank in the next 6 months and ruin the Gen3 party. If Gox implodes, which it appears to be doing as we speak, there will be a lot of negative sentiment in bitcoinland for a while to come. Of course, Gox is pants and deserves what it gets, but lots of people have their money / BTC tied up in Gox and no way of getting it out.

[Mabsark]

If that's the overall expected production for gen3, then an obvious question arises. When is gen4 expected? This year? Next year? Never?

If it's this year, then those numbers seem highly suspect. If the answer is never, then those numbers are meaningless. I'd say gen4 won't be out for a year or two going by those numbers, which would see the chips become pretty weak again compared to the competition. Aren't AM supposed to be working on gen4 already though? In which case, surely it won't take a year or two to be released and therefore AM won't be putting out anywhere near 1600 Ph/s.

Basically, those numbers are completely meaningless without knowing the lifetime of gen3.

No one knows how long gen3 will last, which is one of the reasons for the wide spread of quotes Ph/s. My guess is it will still be a viable (sellable) chip for 9 months to 2.5 years.

In order to be viable 2.5 years from now, AM would basically have to give the chip away. 14nm will be readily available by then and most manufacturers will have produced far more efficient chips. 2.5 years is far too long a life for gen 3.

As to gen4, that was pretty clearly answered in Jutarul's update:

4) What is the currently anticipated long-term strategy for ASICMiner after the 3rd generation?
re 4) Long-term strategy is to follow the step of Moore's Law, while squeeze all possible efficiency out of each stage of chip design and production.

If you think that's clear, then tell me when gen 4 chips will be released, based on that information. All that that paragraph say is that AM will try to double the number of transistors every 2 years while making the chip more efficient.

Let's say that gen 4 will be out in 2 years from now and 1600 Ph/s of gen 3 chips were produced. That would mean AM would have to produce about 2.2 Ph/s every day. With wafers at 40 Th/s, AM would need to package 55 wafers per day, producing 171,875 chips per day.

That sound pretty damn implausible to me.

If 400 Ph/s of gen 3 chips were produced in that 2 year period, 14 wafers per day would need to be packaged producing 43,750 chips.

These numbers are clearly ridiculous and they're over a two year time period. As far as I'm aware, it's not even possible to produce and package 1 wafer per day. If that's correct, then it would take AM decades to produce that many chips.