organofcorti
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Poor impulse control.
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June 02, 2013, 09:20:42 PM |
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If income is limited by device lifetime or user patience, (say ~ four years) then with increasing difficulty an ROI may never be reached.
just thinking out loud here... when ASICS increase the network hash rate enough, GPUs will stop earning enough money to recoup electricity costs. when that happens, GPUs will start dropping off the network in droves, causing difficulty to either drop, or grow more slowly. i wonder what's the total hashing power of all the GPUs on the network right now? AM as a mining company doesn't seem to want a bigger % of the network than they already have, so you can ignore their effect on the hash rate and just focus on everybody else. Total hashing power of GPUs is about 20 ~ 30 Thps. Difficulty won't drop much when they leave. |
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eleuthria
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Merit: 1007
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June 02, 2013, 09:31:49 PM |
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Total hashing power of GPUs is about 20 ~ 30 Thps. Difficulty won't drop much when they leave.
To add to this: It took months for difficulty to drop after the 2011 crash. Difficulty actually kept on climbing for a while. There were significant chunks of time where most miners were mining at a loss. Many miners do not re-evaluate their profitability as often as you think, and they frequently forget indirect costs [air conditioning is a hidden cost that really screws up most miner projections when looking at larger farms]. You can expect that the rate GPU users turn off will be so staggered out due to bad math/persistence/hopes&dreams that it won't even be noticed due to the ASIC power coming online simultaneously. |
RIP BTC Guild, April 2011 - June 2015
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sveetsnelda
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June 02, 2013, 10:15:13 PM |
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Excellent point.
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14u2rp4AqFtN5jkwK944nn741FnfF714m7
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Maciek
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June 02, 2013, 10:31:18 PM |
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I am ASICMINER shareholder.
I registered
https://www.facebook.com/ASICMINER
So no one will do it faster. I will provide full access to Friedcat & team - of course 
Is anyone interested to help me run this FanPage on Facebook?blogsatoshi (at) gmail (dot) com / I need some pictures - for example those Friedcat for president etc. Some news and someone who is English Native Speaker  - just like Satoshi! //btw Who is the owner of asicminer.com ? |
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Maciek
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June 02, 2013, 10:36:38 PM |
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Goes hunting for those pics xd
+1 Please like the page and contact me via email - blogsatoshi at gmail com. I will give you the ability to post on the Facebook as admin there.  |
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freedomno1
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Learning the troll avoidance button :)
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June 02, 2013, 10:43:48 PM |
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Goes hunting for those pics xd
+1 Please like the page and contact me via email - blogsatoshi at gmail com. I will give you the ability to post on the Facebook as admin there. Contacted over mail with same link as thread and url source links in this thread mailed ASICMINER on facebook and liked the page Now off to find some news |
Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
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binaryFate
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Still wild and free
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June 02, 2013, 11:26:06 PM |
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OMG. So no official website AND a facebook fan page now |
Monero's privacy and therefore fungibility are MUCH stronger than Bitcoin's. This makes Monero a better candidate to deserve the term "digital cash".
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freedomno1
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Learning the troll avoidance button :)
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June 02, 2013, 11:29:11 PM
Last edit: June 03, 2013, 09:22:42 PM by freedomno1 |
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OMG. So no official website AND a facebook fan page now Well people were asking for one for a while now Sorry if it looks new it is ha-ha glad I can help out a bit with something If you guys want to add something mail me hunted for some ASIC pics he-he if you got some more sexy ones please pass them on, also making a fan-based album and it's got a few pics would be happy to add to that collection Off to find KFC Pic (It was found) And resists urge to upload this as a troll vid for dividend time http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfrWchX5rAUhttps://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=99497.4900 Played with the fanpage for a bit added some stuff in the About and a few images from around sourced everything from bitcointalk Added a bunch of chart url's etc If I missed something just call Macieck or everyone else And finishes with a vid for now http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76EcAinKPDoNot too sure what else to put on a facebook page so will take suggestions |
Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
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oaxaca
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June 03, 2013, 12:26:08 AM |
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Isn't that Josh from BFL in the white warmup jacket in the center of the picture looking like he wants to grab that woman's purse? |
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freedomno1
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Learning the troll avoidance button :)
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June 03, 2013, 12:30:28 AM |
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Isn't that Josh from BFL in the white warmup jacket in the center of the picture looking like he wants to grab that woman's purse? Actually it might be need to find SmiGueL and confirm that |
Believing in Bitcoins and it's ability to change the world
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conv3rsion
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June 03, 2013, 01:59:14 AM |
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Total hashing power of GPUs is about 20 ~ 30 Thps. Difficulty won't drop much when they leave.
To add to this: It took months for difficulty to drop after the 2011 crash. Difficulty actually kept on climbing for a while. There were significant chunks of time where most miners were mining at a loss. Many miners do not re-evaluate their profitability as often as you think, and they frequently forget indirect costs [air conditioning is a hidden cost that really screws up most miner projections when looking at larger farms]. You can expect that the rate GPU users turn off will be so staggered out due to bad math/persistence/hopes&dreams that it won't even be noticed due to the ASIC power coming online simultaneously. To your point, look at the idiots currently mining litecoin, despite the fact that it is currently 15% less profitable then mining bitcoin (or 20% less profitable then merge mining sha256 coins). Even if they really believed longterm in litecoins, the right thing to do is to then would be to mine bitcoins and then to trade for litecoins. And we know that they could be mining bitcoins since every single litecoin mining device can also mine bitcoins (but obviously not the reverse). Numbers from dustcoin.com TLDR; A lot of miners are morons who don't know what they are doing. |
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canth
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June 03, 2013, 02:04:14 AM |
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Total hashing power of GPUs is about 20 ~ 30 Thps. Difficulty won't drop much when they leave.
To add to this: It took months for difficulty to drop after the 2011 crash. Difficulty actually kept on climbing for a while. There were significant chunks of time where most miners were mining at a loss. Many miners do not re-evaluate their profitability as often as you think, and they frequently forget indirect costs [air conditioning is a hidden cost that really screws up most miner projections when looking at larger farms]. You can expect that the rate GPU users turn off will be so staggered out due to bad math/persistence/hopes&dreams that it won't even be noticed due to the ASIC power coming online simultaneously. To your point, look at the idiots currently mining litecoin, despite the fact that it is currently 15% less profitable then mining bitcoin (or 20% less profitable then merge mining sha256 coins). Even if they really believed longterm in litecoins, the right thing to do is to then would be to mine bitcoins and then to trade for litecoins. And we know that they could be mining bitcoins since every single litecoin mining device can also mine bitcoins (but obviously not the reverse). Numbers from dustcoin.com TLDR; A lot of miners are morons who don't know what they are doing. I don't disagree. I've done the math and I'm still running my GPUs on BTC mining. Sure at some point I'll have to stop, but it's profitable now so I'm not going to do that prematurely. |
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BlackLilac Grant
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June 03, 2013, 02:43:30 AM |
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Hashrate is still ~21 TH/s... didn't it go up to around 28 a day or two ago, or did I dream that??
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stripykitteh
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CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!
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June 03, 2013, 02:54:00 AM |
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Hashrate is still ~21 TH/s... didn't it go up to around 28 a day or two ago, or did I dream that??
Not dreaming, you can see it on http://www.asicminercharts.com. I do not know if it was a test run deploying new kit. I've noticed in the past when the hash rate goes up to a new high it tends to come down again before retracing up again. It looks like it's climbing now. |
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organofcorti
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Poor impulse control.
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June 03, 2013, 03:06:41 AM |
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Hashrate is still ~21 TH/s... didn't it go up to around 28 a day or two ago, or did I dream that??
Not dreaming, you can see it on http://www.asicminercharts.com. I do not know if it was a test run deploying new kit. I've noticed in the past when the hash rate goes up to a new high it tends to come down again before retracing up again. It looks like it's climbing now. Variance. I'll try to get time to post a chart which should provide a better indication of hashrate than a daily average. |
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ionstorm
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June 03, 2013, 03:22:06 AM |
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I hope people realize in 2 months the difficulty will be up to 100,000,000 and the asics they ordered months ago that arrive will make less than 50 a day. I believe as reality sets in people will rush to buy asicminer shares because soon it will be extremely unprofitable to mine alone. I'm considering cancelling preorders and buying asicminer shares exclusively.
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ionstorm
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June 03, 2013, 03:26:21 AM |
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Also I was wondering what asicminers new plans are now that there is even more of an influx of chips from bfl, Avalon, and bit fury that will hit the Blockchain in less than 90 days. Will their planned 200th be enough? Has anyone worked out the new numbers in sustaining 30+ percent?
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stripykitteh
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June 03, 2013, 03:43:15 AM |
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Also I was wondering what asicminers new plans are now that there is even more of an influx of chips from bfl, Avalon, and bit fury that will hit the Blockchain in less than 90 days. Will their planned 200th be enough? Has anyone worked out the new numbers in sustaining 30+ percent?
Very roughly, to come: Bitfury ~200TH coming (100 for the mine, 100 for finished products). September is extremely optimistic for it all to be online. Say ~100TH. Avalon finished products ~60TH (say 1/2 of batch 2 still undelivered and all of batch 3) Avalon chips ~760,000 * .282GH = 214TH, but I think perhaps only 25% will be on by September, say ~60TH BFL + KnC + others: hard to say, I don't think it will be much though. Perhaps 10TH all up. I estimate 230TH of non-AM coming on in 90 days, with a high variance. It could be less, it's unlikely to be vastly more. AM would need to put on 3/7 * 230TH = ~100TH to maintain 30% share of the network, or achieve the same through sales. Crystal-balling out further another ~200TH non-AM might be out by Christmas. Hopefully gen-2 rocks up by then. |
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