Bitcoin Forum

Hold on to your pants guys...its gonna get crazy.   

Secretly, I hoped the pigs were right and we would bubble up again, but every day it looks more and more like this bubble is going to pop all the way...take profits while you can guys, it may be your last chance.


http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=360&i=&c=1&s=2012-05-07&e=2013-05-02&Prev=&Next=&t=C&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&
1yr chart, closing price



OP Update (july 5, 2013):

Welp, it looks like we can officially label this a bear market.

Here is where we are today:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=C&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0& (live updating)

Looks like we may be testing $50 again real soon. Expect plenty of volatility along the way.





Update Nov 8

Looks like we are bubbling up again...

My fiat is ready...

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=158739.msg1996777#msg1996777

Public holiday selloff? Nothing to see... yet.

Green. Red... Green... Red... green... red...

I swear this shit always happens the day before I get my BTC, ha ha. It's all about staying close to the exchanges.

We may have hit the bottom, at anyrate we might see another rally or dead cat bounce. After that I have no clue.

2 month, daily closing price:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=Daily&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=C&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&


Im probably a little early in calling this, but I think we may have seen the top of the bubble and the top of the bounce. I originally thought we'd hit around 200 before the bubble finished popping, but that seems very optimistic, if not unrealistic, at this point...if we close in double digits (which seems possible), I think the bull run is officially over.  :-\

 The price is going down because of where it closed? If you're going to FUD troll to get your buys filled at least be smart about it.

Welcome to the ignore list.

Uhh...no? Thats not even close to what I said. In fact, I never gave a reason for the price going down, though if I had to guess a reason, I'd say its going down due to a loss of investor confidence.



But, but...now I wont get to read your poorly thought out knee-jerk reactions to my comments and threads!! I'm heartbroken....  ::)

I do believe we are headed to a downward trend, but people will have plenty of time to sell... I am constantly buying/selling with each swing, making 2-5% each time... This won't be a fast crash down so take your time if you decide to sell :)

Generally, I am doing this as well...but the market today has the potential to catch people with their pants down so be careful.  As for me, I am staying out until the market settles down a bit. I think we are going down in the short and mid term, but yes, there will be plenty of opportunities to profit along the way (if you don't mind catching falling knives.)  

I hope that everyone's at least taken a small profit in dollars at this point. It makes the long, slow side much less painful.

DUMP DUMP DUMP. Who dump the first, dump the best.

Exactly, I've been telling people to lock in profits for a while now, but the bitcoin echo chamber (like lebing above) shouts me down every single time.  In fact, a large portion of the speculation subforum laughed when I suggested it in the $200's; "Never sell! Buy and hold forever!! The price can only go up, uP, UP!!!!".

Yes I wish I had sold more at $200+ (I only sold 50 coins at $200), but I am definitely NOT selling now.

People have to be more patient. It seems like most bitcoin investors have ADD (pigs).

It's like 2011 all over again.  :D

I honestly think it is.

The lower lows and lower highs we have been seeing over the last week do not look good, IMO. The market is creeping down.

Everybody should have made profit in both bitcoins and dollars. If you do things right, you end up with more dollars than you started with and also more bitcoins.

I just hope it won't take another 2 years to recover.

I would appreciate a new record before the end of the year.

Same, I usually lean bullish, but I try to be reasonable, never really a bear or bull, but I feel we are headed down before eventually heading up in Bitcoin's Wave 5. I would love to scoop up more coins at the bottom and enjoy that ride up, I just hope it doesn't take forever like it did last time.

"Should have" are the operative words here...but I think a lot of people bought into the hype, and I worry about all those people that leveraged debt to buy in somewhere in the two hundreds (I did try to warn some of those people here that it was a very bad idea...but once again, I was shouted down).  

+1

I think people are going to get burned harder on this pop than they did a few years ago, though (which could mean a long recovery period). 

I always wonder what motivates people to create threads like this.
The price is moving and boom there goes a thread which 1) states the obvious and 2) delivers a bold prediction of what will happen.
These threads tend to dramatize a bit or even try to amplify the whole thing instead of observing.

Anyway, i think it's funny how a price movement triggers the analyst in many people. And the commentator. ;)

Cheers

I have just put my bids in for $70 and $55. I do not expect the price to go down that far, so I purchased a couple at $111. I think we might be back at $130 within the next 48hours but ... this is Bitcoins and Japan Holidays are next week, so who knows.

Time for me to log off Bitcoins for today.

Solution: Shutdown computer, set it on fire, throw smartphone into the silicon bonfire u just made, check price after 1 year, btc= 1000usd , magic!  :P

Sad but true.  :-[

Wait, are you supposed to make a backup of your wallet before this, or does the price go up only if you destroy all the bitcoins you own?

Everyone see this?

This is the attitude that is going to get a lot of people burned. Hard.

(I'm not trying to pick on you specifically, Gigacoin...)

Why so humble, little Bull?  ;D According to the great Supernode Advisor we will hit 100000usd by the end of this year.
No discussion, that is a proven fact. Just because it is, basically. You gotta have trust man.
So, I'd suggest you start spending the money right away, as this prediction cannot fail. It just can't. Gotta have faith, son.

LOL

I don't want to insult a Sensei, but it already looks like the market is recovering. I know this is only in the short term but do you think we are really headed towards inevitable downtrend? I mean, just going by what I've seen in my short time here, what goes up must come down and what goes down will come up. Isn't it more likely we continue to see this unstable flip flop throughout the year?

Man, you better listen to the Supernode! Every single BTC will be worth 100000 $ by the end of this year.
Great things to come ;)

Just kidding, I think you're right. This forum definitely got some skilled brainwashers on board ;)

If he manages to gather enough people believing him, it will be true xD
But so are those that say it will hit $0, because people will leave the sinking ship (although they are dismissing the uses BTC has).

Ohh heyy, you're back :)

Maybe a bit late? The selling seems to have run out of steam now.

Going long "blind" works under the assumptions that the fundamentals of bitcoin don't change.
This is a strong assumption, given the circumstance that bitcoin operates in a highly disruptive and innovative field.

While the price of bitcoin may be irrelevant for long term adoption, the technological and social indicators are not.
Right now they look good though - very good.

It's certainly possible, but in my opinion, we are heading down for the visible future (with crazy volitility along the way).



This is the way I see it:

   Despite all of the hype, there was never any justification for the price being this high in the first place. By the time we hit triple digits, the price was being driven almost purely by speculation.

   I think 33 was the real start of the speculative bubble. Once we passed that psychological barrier and didnt crash into singles (which quite a few of us believed would happen), the money started piling in from those in the community, who now feared missing the boat.

   As the price rose, media attention began to grow; this attracted new investors, which in turn attracted more media attention, and the snowball grew. Now we had people entering the market simply to make a quick buck...people who didnt know or care much about bitcoin, but were simply looking to get rich quickly.  By this time, hype was at an all time high and the market was hitting an unsustainable amount of growth.  People actually started leveraging debt to buy btc (never a good sign).

  That's when the panic selling started.  People started pulling out once they feared their investment would be lost. Just like the rise, however, the price fell too fast and we saw the bounce up to 160 (which was expected).  

Since we have hit that mark, we have seen steady downward pressure. If you notice, after each of these moves downward lately, we have not been bouncing back as high (Lower lows and lower highs). To me this says we may be seeing the beginning of the same type of slow steady slide down we saw in 2011.
  

it can't be exactly like 2011, because everyone knows exactly what happened in 2011.

that being said, it's also completely different, as i have argued many times this month.

I wouldn't rule out such possibility...

No, but 2011 is certainly a decent road map on how this thing is going to play out.

Maybe - it certainly seems that way. But what most people outside of bitcoin community herd in 2011 was that bitcoin was hacked or the biggest bitcoin exchange was hacked. Considering that this was only one year or so after bitcoin came to be, most people would have written bitcoin off their mind and consider it to be too risky and unfeasable.

Now in 2013, I think bitcoin has gained a lot of credibility and therefore interest. Many people have seen its potential. Many events can dramatically change the field for the better.

So while 2011 made people write it off. 2013 made people take real interest in it. For those reasons, I don't think we'll see 37 or even 50. 70-80 maybe.

That said, unless one of these events does dramatically change the field, i.e. another cyprus, purchasable with credit/debit card instantly (so some mainstream forex exchange adopts it), incorporated into the system of money movers, then we might go even lower than 37.

The only thing I want is that is that the price doesn't tank as far that the exchanges contemplate running with my trading capital....

Me neither, I just try to keep my perspective.

Mr. Supernode seems to be engaged in gathering as much BTC as possible, basically to reduce the amount of circulating Coins.
At least that's what I read between the lines.

If he and his partners manage to achieve their goals it COULD be possible that BTC price will rise extremely.
This plan will only work out if the demand for BTC rises significantly. I think that is part of his plan,
to raise demand for BTC and through "selling" it to his customers as just another commodity.
Maybe some big investors join the party..nobody knows for sure if this will happen.

Of course it is very appealing to think that way. Who does not want to be rich?  ;)
People are very open for these scenarios and sometimes our decisions are guided not by rational thought but by wishful thinking.
I'd love to see BTC hit 100000 $ but I refuse to follow this extremely confident speculation at the moment.
A lot of things have to happen before we can expect this scenario, and a lot of things must not happen.
We'll see if this prediction withstands the test of time - I have doubts.

That doesn't mean I think BTC will crash, either. BTC Price at the end of the year is not predictable from my point of view.

QFT we could be sitting here at MTGox or BTC-E with our pretty numbers on the screen and there is absolutely no guarantee they will be solvent / able to pay out who the hell knows how much champagne they are all chugging back there in the server room these days!

i really disagree:

I don't know, the bubbles look fairly similar to me on the charts (I do see the pattern you are talking about, though) ...maybe it will go differently this time, but I personally don't think so. 

2011
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=2-hour&c=1&s=2011-06-01&e=2011-06-19&Prev=&Next=&t=C&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

2013
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=2-hour&c=1&s=2013-04-01&e=2013-05-02&Prev=&Next=&t=C&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

looks like all markets are down today, not just bitcoin.

MY BODY IS READY  :P

So would that be the resurrected cat that is now going to die again bounce?
 :P

I got no clue. But I've seen some shit in my lifetime. I don't really know. Nothing to do but watch this storm and think of the best next move.

I don't think there is any correlation, though.  S&P hit its all time high yesterday while BTC has been trending down for over a week.

down for the week, but still up for the year.   ;D

I don't know.
I'm pretty happy with LTC doubling in price.

Yeah, but for how long?

Looks like it's down ~10% today

http://i41.tinypic.com/33kszf6.png

understand the fundamentals - graphs provide no insight.

See, people keeps saying that, but no one really qualifies what they mean.

Here's what I see:

BTC payment services getting hacked (bitinstant), BTC wallet services being hacked, Lag on the exchanges grinding trading to a halt and killing liquidity, an overinflated price driven by media hype and people looking to get rich quick, an overinflated blockchain that may or may not contain child porn (or links to child porn), an economy driven primarily by drugs and grey market goods, etc, etc

....and thats just the tip of the iceburg.




Frankly, the fundamentals look like shit.

Wauw, that means wonders do exist, please elaborate.

yep.  this is why your proudhon packed up and left. only ever saw the negative and never the positive. email accts. get hacked too, guess we should abandon email everywhere and go back to snail-mail.

You can get upset if you like, but it doesn't change the fact that the only justification for a price rise from $20 to $260 in less than 4 months is speculation driven by media hype (not fundamentals).  This has nothing to do with negativity and everything to do with trading realistically and without emotion.

Those mega red candles on the recent graph are massive and I am cautiously optimistic that if the market can absorb such huge volumes without causing a massive slide then we won't see a repeat of bubble 1.0. The big money came in from 50-100. So maybe lower we must go, as orderbook weight is shifting to the sell side.

http://blockchained.com/depth_mtgox_15d.png

There there...

Fundamentals look great... it's just the price that's disconnected.  ;)

It doesn't look so bad if you zoom out a bit:
http://blockchained.com/depth_mtgox.png

Rubbish. It's only Silk Road's extended downtime leading to panic sells.

what planet are you on? LTC was 4.07 yesterday, now its 3.75/USD.   

Yawn, this will all be forgotten in 2 years....just operate at different time scales that's all

That's my way of thinking too and waiting to buy. But I'm worried by alternative crytopcurrencies. They are zapping money from the BTC price.

back to 60$ 70$ ;)

I think there will be a good bounce at least once or twice off $70 on the way down

isn't that point though it unwinds the early adopter BTC in more hands, makes it more like a currency....also competition is good...may the best coin win, and it force you to hold some of each

Fifty was the absolute bottom: proudhon said so. ;D (Though he seems to have become cautiously bullish since that trough was hit upon, a bullish proudhon makes me very uneasy - j/k.)

Rationally, I think the market would be oversold dropping below $40 but rational doesn't mean anything in markets, for they remain irrational...

The long-term bull's still on if bitcoin doesn't fail though, methinks. Medium term I'm also still bullish. Short term depends on how many "weak hands" are still floating around, I guess. If the recent volatilities have "shaken the tree" enough, only a serious lack of new buying interest should tip things down much. But what if "weak hands" are still lurking and suddenly decide to panic/jump ship (again)?

As for the last day or two's drop, since it seems all markets have headed this general direction, I'd just (for now) write it off as a bank-holiday selloff. Or rather, a dollar bull trap. ;D

I think it will take some time for the Bitcoin economy to catch up to the price. Something around 1000-2000 daily transactions per 1$ in price seems to be the long-term average.

Yes, a good deal of the price is driven by speculation. Then again, gold is probably similarly massively overvalued if you only consider its industrial and ornamental uses and don't view it as money...

If it does play out the same way, then a period of slow decline to about $80 is likely, followed by minimal movement for a while.

There's a large wall at $80 and a huge wall at $70 - these are my targets over the coming weekend.

I find all this talk of 'weak hands' very misleading.

If someone bought some BTC at $140-150 they are not 'weak' for selling when it's obviously crashing out from underneath them even if they sell at a loss.

Only a stubborn fool would hold onto a bad investment when it's obviously crashing / collpasing in value and you can buy more back cheaper if you sell and potentially make much greater profits in the long run.

Knowing when to sell at a loss is very important thing to know. The key is to decide whether it's just a large fluctuation or a much rarer collapse.

We are witnessing a collapse in the value of Bitcoin right now.

All is not necessarily lost by selling lower than you bought for.

For example : If you purchased 100 BTC at $150 and sell them at $115 you initially spent $15,000 and end up with $11,500, a loss on that trade of $3,500.

If the price goes down to $80 you will end up with 143.75 Bitcoin (instead of only 100) assuming you buy back in at $80.

Then you only have to sell at $104 to break even and you have more Bitcoin so as the price rises in the future you will make much more profit than had you been 'strong' and held onto your initial Bitcoin like some kind of idiot while the value crashed through the floor. By the time the price rises back to your initial purchase price you will have much more profit by doing this.

So my message is : If it's tanking - dump it all and buy back cheaper. There is an element of risk but in m experience I've found it to be worthwhile.

During the last crash I held onto my Bitcoin for a bit too long and I finally sold all of them (approximately 580 of them) at about $105-110

I then bought back 1000 Bitcoin when the price was around $60 so my decision to sell and buy back cheaper proved to be a good one. I had never had more than 600 BTC prior to this so that was a massive increase in my holding.

All these guys who have thousands of Bitcoin who sell during a large movement like this aren't stupid - they're selling for a reason and they know what they are doing.

The reason is they know they will be able to buy it back cheaper.

Except, you never know when the price will change direction, and how far it will go. What if, in your example, you purchased 100 BTC at $150 and sell them at $115, and then the price rises back to $200? Now you have no btc and $3500 less than you started with.

People also have to remember the $400,000 in new money have to come into Bitcoin every day to maintain the current price.
I think this steady inflation is one the reasons why a slow decline in price after a price peak seems to be typical for Bitcoin.

Presumably one would buy somewhere along the way....

I chose the same targets on the downside. My ask at $129 went unfilled.

Slovenia seems to be next for the big haircut. Let Cyprus 2.0 happen and bulls are back in business.

Good thinking, at this point I think it's worth mentioning that the banks it Japan have closed for the day and due to Bank holidays on Friday and Monday they won't reopen until Tuesday.

So there's no new money (USD) arriving at MtGox until next Tuesday at the earliest.

Doesn't bode well for Bitstamp once this bear-phase is through...

This point is very valid, but the market can price in this extra supply easily enough. The high inflation combined with sheer lack of buyers almost certainly played the central rôle in the 2011 post-bubble decline.

Rather than ask oneself "where is the additional $400k/day value coming from?" one can just assume that there is BTC15-20m already out there (even though it's not and possibly never really will be due to lost 'coins).

I also think the still-significant risk of BTC crashing to zero is heavily priced into the current market.

There is, however, a reason I don't daytrade, and especially not the BTC-fiat crosses. I have turned some profit arbitraging LTC/BTC when the exchange rate rolled up and down fairly predictably like a yo-yo: volatility you can believe in. ;D

Selling in order to buy back cheaper isn't stupid, I agree. It's only stupid to think making the initial ask is a risk-free strategy. It is not: it is a wager that the price will fall. Needless to say, short selling is an even bigger wager that the price will fall...

Those who are truly confidently bearish on bitcoin (or any commodity/stock) will short sell as hard as possible, given the slightest opportunity. Right?

Looks like double digits today!

Down, down, down....

Confidence shatters. It's a long slide down folks.

Indeed. We've got a long way down.

The risk of crashing to zero for pure market reasons is zero. Of course there can always be a fat finger....

Not necessarily. I am bearish on bitcoin right now, but I don't see a point in adding more risk to an already extremely risky investment/speculative tool through margin trading.

This. We will probably bubble up again eventually (after a period of stability at the bottom), but it's all downside for the forseeable future.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=180882.msg1888636#msg1888636

History doesn't repeat itself. It only rhymes. Your prediction is self defeating if everyone believes it.

Yeah and let's not forget Bitfloor shutting down.

Indeed... but not everyone believes it.

See this forum and reddit posts "Wiring money to Gox now...  Oh cheap coins... etc".

There might be a bounce up to $120-125, but I sold out the last of the little I had at 105.

Did cost me about 20% of my meager holdings, but I think FIAT is the safest atm. Have put in buy orders at 80-90 though, because I think it might linger in the $100 area before heading further down.

That's the kind of thinking which got us in the economic mess in the first place. You have to learn that there are players out there which prey on that strategy. It's called a stop-loss. While this tactics may make sense in an isolated case, it's a mechanism for them to scare you into giving up your BTC. It's similar to how the banks profit from engineered market crashes.

please let me make this clear:
PEOPLE! Stop playing the games you're not good at. If you're not a trading expert, invest only the money you have set aside for hedging with bitcoin and use PRICE-INDEPENDENT CRITERIA to determine whether to sell or buy (like paying utility bills or having spare USD liquidity). Otherwise you set yourself up for a game in which you have inherently the weaker hand.

What economy?

The one which includes "Bitcoin Supernodes"?

bitfloor was a small time operation destined to fail.  the Good you fail to see is Tradehill.com coming back up and other exchanges like btc-e and virwox still going strong.

We cannot all be as leet as you.

I feel pretty confident that BTC prices will continue to fall. I really don't know the rate though. Anything tripple digits feel unsecure ATM.
If you want to buy BTC at 105 at this point in time, please do so. But I see 85 as much more probable than 115 and don't want to be stranded with X BTC when I can have X*1.5 or more BTC in a few days.

This bubble is a hype, and we all know it. The prices are about 70% psychological. with a few whales that control the prices. I don't wanna be there when the prices hit 115 or 120 and the whales suddenly get something else to play with, and drop most of or all their inventory.

While those are all nice reasons to buy bitcoin, none of those reasons justify the price rise from sub 20 to 260 in less than 4 months.....None of those things are new, and all of those reasons come with a catch:



Exchanges being hacked, Exchanges stealing money, Wallet services getting hacked, Your wallet getting Hacked or deleted, Misplaced, stolen, or forgotten private key


Unless you use escrow (which involves trusting a third party) the buyer risks a no delivery of goods and/or services with no recourse. Check out the scammer accusation subforum.


This is definitely one of BTCs strong suits, its ability to be psuedoanonymous. Its anonymity is unwieldy in practice, though. You can never use exchanges, FTF meetings can identify you, etc...I suppose you could do dead drops or something though. You could just as easily buy a prepaid credit card with cash (or just use cash) for anonymous purchases.


You also have to download a bloated blockchain (which takes forever, hogs space on your computer, and may contain child porn) or trust a third party wallet source


As far as I can tell, the miners and devolpers are the government. When the blockchain forked a month or two ago, the developers and miners (or at least a mojority of them) decided which fork would be the valid one, and the choice was to comply or be left behind. The developers also have the power to change the protocol as they see fit, giving them the ultimate power over bitcoin. As an end user, I have no power over any of that.

  

DUMP DUMP DUMP
I like to buy cheap bitcoins. (single number preferred)

+1 !

I wanted to post something similar a few days ago. Those catches seem to be ignored too much by too many. Another one is that transactions are not instant. Sometimes they take far too long to be practical for daily use.
I myself invested in 2011 in BC and made some good money on the way. But I never used it to pay anything with it! I prefer using paypal or similar.
There I know that if something goes wrong, there is some way out of it. In BC there just isnt. And it turned out that this fact attracted many scammers so that nobody trusts anyone anymore.

I'm sorry but this is the very essence of what caused the bubble, fundamentals tell you nothing without price and likewise the price tells you nothing without knowledge of the fundamentals.

What a buyer needs to estimate as well as he/she can is the ratio of  what you get (the value) to what you pay (the price). Value is defined by fundamentals transformed by a complicated function into cash flow and then discounted for risk and risk free return sacrificed, price is the guess of the participants as to tomorrows price and is what must be sacrificed today for the return in the future.

One without the other is useless without the context the other brings.

Security is generally increasing, Rome wasn't built in a day. Just see how long it's taken for something like MS Windows to become reasonably secure. Sites will improve their game with increased competition, and better tools/software for personal wallet management is inevitable as the user base grows.



No chargebacks is an inherent feature of bitcoin. It doesn't really increase risk though, it just MOVES risk from the receiver to the sender. The flip side is that it's much safer to GET money with bitcoin. In any case I  suspect escrow services will become standardized with time.



Full blockchain download isn't required for everyday use, use eg. MultiBit. In any case this is a software/optimization issue, as there are many suggestions for how to improve performance even for full clients.



Devs have no chance in hell of pushing through changes unless a large majority of users agree. Unless everybody is conspiring against you in particular, you can trust the majority to have the same interests as you - to protect their own money.

Possibly. But I don't want to be holding the wrong coin at the wrong time.

The bear TRAP market is on ...
1. double bear trap $90-$50 (more than milion btc lost)
2. $140-$90 is the next trap

That's easy to shout when the price bounces from oversold conditions. Come back in a week, then do it.

Escrow isn't 100% safe either. If the other party tries to screw you, you don't know for sure the escrow will rule for you. PayPal disputes are generally ruled in the buyer's favor. And sometimes that's how it works when "tie goes to buyer" or when the seller can't provide sufficient evidence that a virtual item was delivered.

Do not worry, I'll be here few years. :-)

You better be.

I hate to see a Bear Market... You guys get Trapped ALL THE FUCKING TIME While some Millionaire is on a Island sipping margaritas collecting the easiest money ever. Hell Im in my home office collecting some easy money.

It seems other commodities have been sold off a bit lately too. Holiday blues? Short-term demand for USD has clearly risen.

We could view it as a bull trap for the dollar. ;D

3. and soon you will realize $230-$140  biggest one.

Sounds like you bought at $140-$230 earlier this month.
Did you?

In november 2012 (but I'm trading with small amount .. not daytrade)

I always smile on the inside when people claim to have bought in before their registration date. ripetila is that you?  :)

Do what you want. No I'm not ripetila.

Well, I did? Not long before, but still. Seems the most natural order of doing things really.

Actually I am referring to the real economy. Stop-loss and other mechanisms are ways to deprive people of their money without legal recourse, because the blame can be shifted onto the market. So big players have a huge incentive for market manipulations.

You could say that it's their own fault (stop-loss sellers) for falling for those tricks, but that's attacking the innocent.

Notice that since the bubble top,  each time the price "recovers" it settles at a lower price than the last "recovery" (before crashing down again).  The only ones who are getting trapped are the pigs that are "holding forever" and the bulls trying to catch a falling knife. Bears (for the most part) are either shorting the market, or staying out altogether because they've already locked in profits or are past their risk vs reward comfort zone.

When did you lock in profits ? (what is your "reward comfort zone" ?)

Yes, but again, none of that justifies the meteoric price rise that we saw over the last 4 months.

You got your animals mixed up. I'm surprised a 1 year chart wasn't able to accurately predict the future trades in the Bitcoin market. Who woulda thunk it.

Bears you are welcome to buy back in at a higher price point, no one will look down on you.

Which time? I trade constantly. Last time I sold was at $115, and I'll probably jump back in when we see doubles again (which will be very soon in my estimation). I don't consider myself a bear, but I am bearish on current market conditions.  

Which part are you having trouble understanding: "risk vs reward" or "comfort zone"?

Window of opportunity is closing fast.

No. No, I didn't. Am I going to have to go over these terms again?




Definition of 'Pig'
An investor who is often seen as greedy, having forgotten his or her original investment strategy to focus on securing unrealistic future gains. After experiencing a gain, these investors often have very high expectations about the future prospects of the investment and, therefore, do not sell their position to realize the gain.

Definition of 'Bull'
An investor who thinks the market, a specific security or an industry will rise. Investors who takes a bull approach will purchase securities under the assumption that they can be sold later at a higher price.

Definition of 'Bear'
An investor who believes that a particular security or market is headed downward. Bears attempt to profit from a decline in prices. Bears are generally pessimistic about the state of a given market.

Definition of 'Sheep'
An investor who lacks a focused trading strategy and trades on emotion and the suggestions of others, including friends, family and financial gurus. This type of investor often makes rash investments without first determining whether these decisions are financially viable. The behavior of sheep contrasts with that of bulls and bears, who have focused views about the market.

Definition of 'Lemming'
The act of an investor following the crowd into an investment, without doing research themselves; this usually results in losses. These investors are emotional and easily swayed by the current ongoings of how well or bad the market is doing. This term is considered a "herd" mentality that can increase the chance of losing invested funds, because investors either leave the market too early or get into it too late, when prices are already too high to make a profit.

Definition of 'Ostrich'
A slang term given to investors or other market participants who ignore important pieces of information or situations, which have the ability to impact them or the market in which they operate. The reasons behind type of action can include risk aversion and bias.


http://www.investopedia.com/tags/stock_market_terminology/definition/


you're welcome.




What in the hell are you talking about? Who is predicting off of the 1 year chart?  I was showing a snapshot of the market.

I swear, some of you just read what you want to see, instead of whats actually being said.

We are still trading at around $10 under than the previous major support at $120....that's not exactly a hopeful sign.

I think bearing in mind the current fundamentals a price of 70-80 USD would be fair value, this is based on the level of public interest though google trends. Whilst allot of new money has flown in over the last few months innovation has not kept up with the exponential price growth. It may fall further than this but would then in my opinion be undervalued.

The problem it seems to me is that bitcoins potential return was far more attractive than setting up a bitcoin based business. Why invest in infrastructure with such a high rate of return available to those who buy and hold, its more liquid as well. This correction and stabilization will be very good for bitcoin.

Not exactly. By my count, we are now in correction #5, post-bubble. (Note that what qualifies as a "correction" is up to interpretation, to a degree. I marked in a circle another inbetween high point, followed by a minor decline, that I didn't consider a correction of its own though, because the price drop afterwards wasn't very pronounced).

Correction 1 to 3 were indeed progressively worse. Then correction #4 came, and things looked better for a moment (bottom above two previous bottoms, top above previous top). Admittedly, that all changed with #5, where we can't even be sure yet that we've reached the bottom.

Still, the point I'm getting at is, the statement that after each correction, and recovery, the price settled at a lower point, is not correct. (Although I do agree that with #5 in, the corrections do indeed start looking like they point "downwards").




https://i.imgur.com/QYuQeRM.png

You are right, I misspoke. I was actually referring to the decline since the latest bear market hit (the fall from $160).  

But you are correct, there were corrections on the way down in the crash and on the subsequent bounce, but they don't really affect the current bear market (though they were important while the crash and bounce played out).

Personally, I think corrections #1 to #3 still matter. They form a nice downward triad, with #2 being lower than #1, and #3 being lower than #2, in all relevant aspect (high, low, middle point).

#4 however started higher, and didn't drop as deep as the previous. #5 is obviously below #4, but still not a new absolute low. I'm very much anticipating #6: if it stays below #5, then I finally agree and admit we're in a for a medium-to-long term bear market. If #6 lands somewhat higher though, I will take it as evidence that the gradual downward slide in the form of 3 successive corrections is broken, and we might stabilize.

I think we will definitely see it go lower, barring some insanely good news.  There is still a lot of downward pressure, and news like  CoinLab suing MtGox for 70 million (http://gawker.com/massive-bitcoin-business-partnership-devolves-into-75-487857656?rev=1367540238) isn't helping matters.

This is definitely a bearapocalypse,lol.Might be worth selling I think.It might be best to do so now before most US users wake up I think.

"Bearpocalypse Now"  Good one!

While I'm here, I'll call the bottom as in the $40's within a month (absent an external calamity.)

I claim no insight, knowledge, interest, or skill in such things as price picking though.  And I'm certain not putting my money where my mouth is!

I think if we break down through 90, then all hell will break loose and we could see another freefall (which will get worse when the american market wakes up)..... 100 seems to be holding on the top side for now, too.

Doesn't look good, guys.


http://i39.tinypic.com/6zbz44.png





As of right now, it'll take around 12.5k BTC to buy us under $90.

 

Thread title changed.  ;)

Does this end with ~vess going up the river to Tokyo and hacking ~magicaltux with a machete?

Think there might be a last desperate climb for three digits

Maybe. I think the 100 ceiling will hold for now, though. If not, it could be the set up for an epic bull trap.

My gut feeling is that we are going to have to test $50 again. For me, that is only point of resistance that has really shown genuine strength under heavy selling pressure. But who knows what might happen this time...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lWJXDG2i0A

Bitcoins like beanie baby and tulips are no longer collectible.  How idiots ever thought something virtual was collectible is beyond me.  Should of stuck to WOW, Second Life, and Diablo 3.

How much are those Magic the Gathering Trading Cards going for these days guys?

All fun and games aside the speculators are moving on the price is returning to a reasonable value based on adoption and usage of this virtual currency.  The bubble bursts.  DUR HUR DUR.  Please don't start collecting Bitcoin again and let it grow and become tangible.  If you have a real ATM and have passed regulation awesome, install one near my home please, I'll use it.  Until then thanks for all the profits guys.  I'm going to travel Europe for 2 years and not work starting this summer.

If we swing to the high 90s with enough speed, might grab resistance from panic buyers that sold around that region (whom I suspect make up the majority of the volume that brought us to break the 80 wall). Hopefully will result in a price swing to the 105-110 area and right into my limit orders :)

I would consider myself to be a manbearpig in terms of my spirit animal for trading.

It's true, after the crash the value of those commodities dropped dramatically, but what about after the crash? Today tulips are a multi-million dollar industry, along with beanie babies...

Same with the dot com bubble, companies such as Qualcomm are multi-billion dollar industry leaders after crashing from high 80s to under 20. QC today is trading @ $63, with many indicators that it still has room to move up.

Just take a step back along with a deep breath and look at the big picture.

Yeah tulips in beanie babies are a million dollar industry today sold in volume not based on $10,000 an item.  The tulip crash was 100s of years ago and Beanie babies 20 years.  I never said that I don't believe long term in BTC.  I said this was all speculation, a bubble, I was accused of being an idiot, a moron, and spreading FUD to get cheapER coins.  Well I have cheap coins but it wasn't forum post that did it LMAO.

I haven't got the remotest clue how to "realize a gain" i.e. to un-invest. Other than spending on consumption.

lol...good one

Bitcoin is not even born yet. These are just birth pains. We'll see another bubble. And possibly yet another.

Magic cards are, actually, still quite valuable.  They've held value longer than beanie babies, that is for sure.  I am actually surprised that there's not a bitcoins for magic cards marketplace out there, considering MTgox's origins.

Sell your BTC for USD/EUR/whatever for a higher price than you bought them. Congratulations, you have just realized your gains and locked in a profit!

When BTC holds a higher value than what you paid, but you hold onto BTC, what you have is unrealized gains....those are worth exactly zero. Profits aren't made until your BTC is sold.

I'm not going to cash out all my coins into USD until 2014 at least.  2013 seems like an unlucky to cash out !

I think bitcoin is actually a more valid currency, and less manipulated, than most 'real' currencies being traded today.

Sure if you are looking at day by day, week by week, sure, good time to sell. See ya man !  Fine and fair point to leave.  

I'm hanging in there. Couldn't care too much anywhere between $50 - $150 next few months. I never sell at a loss.

Currently I am invested in Fiat. So when Fiat rises compared to Bitcoin, I should realize my gains and sell Fiat? Is that what you mean?

Then it would be about time I realized my gains.

to the bottom of the sea

Till you can pay your bills in BTC it will always the thing you sell to "realize your gains"
"Selling fiat for BTC" is just a play of words with no practical meaning.

I've done all 3 for at least 1-2 years each phase! Anyone else that crazy? hahaha

Oh well, I'm pretty sure this crash is MtGox's fault http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2ku1A5Ox8U

Sure why not, you are welcome to make what ever stupid decision you like.

anyone buying yet?  ;)

$100 ceiling holding and $90 fell today (taking us all the way to $79)?  Hell no, its still looking really bad out there.

Don't do that...

I like my chart better.

http://i43.tinypic.com/a2dkch.png

hey look, the Bitcoin ATM was on the news!  http://youtu.be/ZqEdBCKFPAo

Quote: "Today $1.00 is worth about 100 bitcoins"  :D

see how quickly they have impacted the market!  ;D

They even got me beat by expectations.

So is China leading the charge into the bull trap?

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=939.611111164093&m=btcnCNY&SubmitButton=Draw&r=2&i=15-min&c=1&s=2013-05-03&e=2013-05-05&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=20&a2=&m2=50&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=1&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

I don't know, it could be china and the BTC ATM providing a bit of good news (which lifts investor confidence), or it be the bear market letting off a little steam before the sell off continues.  

Either way, I think this suckers rally is going to catch people with their pants down.

I cannot see the ATM thing being much of a factor frankly.  The technology and originality is ho-hum and the real issues are the same as any other major player...regulation.  To top it off, the people involved seem like barely-post-pubescent shysters.

I'm not really convinced that we are even in a bear market vs. just being run-of-the-mill volatility in Bitcoin-land coupled (or associated) with rampant manipulation.  Could see this as a down-blip in the run-up from the 2011 bear bottom to who knows where.  Or it is possible that this is the start of a bear which will end when almost everyone has given up hope.  Like last time.

Evolve, how low do you think it will go? Do you think it'll test $80 again this week?

Its only.going up.. Ignore the downtrends they.are not relevant in the long run

Its anybody's guess, really.

I think the most likely scenario is we test $120 on the top end, fail to break through, the continue the drift back down. If this is the case, I think we will go below $80. Depending on how this current rally plays out, I think we could see $50 in the next 2 or 3 weeks.

 

I think $50 is the big test, and I think that number will come up quicker than people realize.

You do realize that I was waiting to go below $50 3 weeks ago?  >:(

You are not alone. I am puzzled that not more people see the downside here. A brutal crash followed by a steady climb would have been a much better signal from the market than all this mucking about.  ;)

After it keeps going up the bears should take a hiatus from here

When the price goes back down, are the bulls going to do the same?

Didn't think so.

Down to $50, then up to $600.  No reason to sell if you believe in long term viability.

if it goes below fifty i'll take a weeks vacation.   ;D

Ill do the same if it goes above 160.

My guess is both of you wont be on vacation anytime soon..


160 to 50 haha huge spread

its the bearpocalypse!

But you can triple your bitcoins that way! :P

I should have gotten 'bearpocalypse' trademarked,lol.Still,I was able to get at near the bottom for some more btc.

lol that's why there will be NO VACATIONS.

No sleep guys lol

It was a genuine 'lol' when I read it.  And nice work on hitting the bottom if hindsight indicates that that is indeed the case.  I had to double-down more times than I could count to achieve the nicety back in the late 2011 timeframe.  Seem in retrospect like it might have been one of my better moves.

Hibernation?

Nope, still trading steadily  below the old support $120.  The new top of $160 (from immediately after the crash to $50) hasn't been tested, and it doesn't look like it will be soon.

Still definitely a bear market.

I'm sorry. But to fit the current situation to this definition is more than a stretch. I feel no pessimism (let alone widespread) about falling prices, mostly hope (to be able get cheaper coins).

In what way? Prices are falling, and market sentiment is definitely down (even if you personally arent pessimistic) compare post in this forum to a month ago.

http://i41.tinypic.com/35aup8p.png

Prices are falling?

https://i.imgur.com/Hk3a5xTl.png (https://i.imgur.com/Hk3a5xT.png)

Sentiment bearish?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=69029.0 (68% bullish, 32% bearish for april)

We are in May if you did not notice lol

Outside of the short-term rally over the past few days? Yes.

The longterm trend you exhibited suggests a further downward correction. Could you explain-- when did we break out of the current downtrend?


Bitcointalk may be one of the few indicators we have, but it is a terrible one. Also terrible, but another measure of sentiment:
https://i.imgur.com/e3z4vIM.jpg

Yes, the highs have been getting lower and lower.  Your line shows a possible long term trend, mine shows what is happening right now in the short to mid term.



Yes, and a silly forum poll doesn't change that.  Again, look back at threads from a month ago and compare them to now.  The hype machine is definitely more quiet now; No more threads about people taking out loans to buy BTC, no more $10,000 bitcoin threads, no more shouting down every bearish comment, no more bull celebration threads.  Sentiment is definitely much lower.

That is the current 6 month chart from bitcoinity. Notice how the chart extends past april 30? Yeah.

You really are the worst poster on this forum.

Lower highs, but also higher lows. When the two cross, who knows what is gonna happen.

My comment was not directed towards you lol

My mistake.

I did, but I couldn't find a more recent poll and you "falling prices" have started April 10th.

Is this all you got? ;-)

For now. But I think we are much more likely to retest 50 than we are 160 or (even more unlikely) 266.

The graph shows a nice consolidation pattern. Within the last month we've seen tops and bottoms, each time with less variation from the mean. It's fair to say that the market/price is becoming more predictable again, thus lowering the risk aversion.

However, running the risk of outrage for bringing a technical topic into a speculation thread, what one should also consider is the growth of the mining industry. With the ASICs coming to the market, the production cost of BTC is rising at about 10% per 2 weeks. The current ROI is months. If one analyzes the 2011 bubble, one sees why this is important:
1) the production cost of BTC provides support for a minimum price per BTC
2) investments in mining equipment will increase until the ROI is years (in terms of BTC earnings)

1) caused miners in 2011 to enter the speculation market once the price dropped to critical levels. Most miners are investors who use their technical expertise to make profit from the arbitrage between the production and selling of BTC. However, when the arbitrage window vanishes they can use materialized profits (e.g. fiat) to keep the operation running (burning previous earnings) and adopt a long position in BTC, effectively depleting supply of new BTC and maybe even buy BTC off the market near to or at production costs.

2) gives you an indication of the timeline the mining industry is operating on. It's not days or months - it's years. Thus to discourage miners considerably one would have to keep BTC price BELOW production costs for months!

Miners and speculators operate based on a different mantra. Speculators buy low and sell high and are price driven. Miners produce low and sell higher and are production cost driven. Also they have very different time preferences for their activities.

Based on my analysis the BTC price is still hovering significantly over the production cost. However, the gap is closing fast. A 5x-10x increase in production cost for BTC until the end of this year is likely. Some of this increase will eat into the gap and some will materialize as an increase in BTC price.

Not at all, it is definitely something that has to be considered when we are looking at price.  Mining cost vs production is something I would consider in fundamental analysis.

trends depend on timeframe.

I'm sorry, I don't see a downtrend on the one-month chart.


About sentiment: yes, it's got a lot less bullish, the hype has settled down. That doesn't imply the sentiment is now "increasingly pessimistic" as the definition of bear market demands.

I'm not convinced.

I just made a comment based on your sentiment argument lol...thats all buddy haha

The fact that the highs are dropping shows the increasing pessimism. The highs aren't going up because people don't believe that they can sell them for as high of a price as they could last month.  In other words, the price that people think they can sell bitcoins for is going down, so people will only buy back in at a lower price.

https://i.imgur.com/ac3wF5J.jpg

How so?

ah, sorry. thought you were evolve when answering. my bad.

https://i.imgur.com/2NWOLLLl.png (https://i.imgur.com/2NWOLLL.png)

and:

+1

Don't worry, this thing will still be going down in another month, IMO.  The bear market may not be confrimed yet, but it will be.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

What about lower lows

https://i.imgur.com/2NWOLLLl.png (https://i.imgur.com/2NWOLLL.png)

Not necessary. A simple 20% drop in the dow over 2 months is enough to be considered a bear market.


Definition of 'Bear Market'
A market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows. Although figures can vary, for many, a downturn of 20\% or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500), over at least a two-month period, is considered an entry into a bear market.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp



That said, I believe we will be testing 80 and 50 again in the short to mid term.

Where is the "widespread pessimism"?  Other than this thread and your posts I'm not seeing much.

Read the thread. This has already been gone over.

Then we have finally reached an understanding I can live with ;).

Let's see again in a month or two.

Agreed.

Can you two get a room and hash out your bull bear differences? lol  :P

Yes, you pointed to the ultra-bullish times and said now there are is less bull talk. Not convincing.

2nd post on this page


The market itself reflects investor pessimism.

that's what we're doing, you dirty little voyeur, you!

Well' I enjoyed reading this last discussion.

We certainly had a correction, but a bear market does require lower lows as the market becomes increasingly pessimistic. I don't think, after the jump from 50, anyone realistically expects the price to reach 50 again. Even 70 has tremendous support and the last time we could not get past 97.

So, although previously I thought this might go the 2011 way, considering the above, I think we just had a very much needed correction and are now consolidating for the next deflationary move.

Testing 50 again is much more likely than 150 or 266 IMO. Trading over 120 for a sigificant amount of time would be surprising at this point.

There's no widespread pessimism among traders. Everyone short is looking for the best entry point. They want to buy back. No one is screaming "PONZI!!" like in 2011. And there are now $20M sitting in Gox's order book, which is very close to ATH.

Sure, delusional greed faded away. No more "I have to buy more now or I'm missing the train", no more people stampeding to get their money to the exchange. But even if a bear market might be expected, is nowhere to be seen.

No? Its optimism driving the price down?

no its greed  ;)

No, thats what got us up to 266. We are reaping the consequences of that greed now.

no fear got us up to 266

i know its confusing, but its true.

nice one adam. It's true to a large extent.

I disagree, but we should know for sure within the next couple of days if this is true.

We are having a very needed correction - but that's very different from a bear market. Growth we had in the last few weeks before the crash was pure speculative mania, and it was unsustainable.

Yeah, highs keep getting lower - that's expected. But bottoms keep getting higher too. We're reaching a tipping point, we will see if we enter a bear market or not, but you take it from granted and ATM it's not so clear in my book. It may well be consolidation after a correction.

A lot of money poured into Gox, and look at their order book: the money is not running away for now. And mainstream media is still very positive about Bitcoin, which is another huge difference compared to 2011.

I completely agree. Just read the wall observer. All the bears are just bulls disguised as bears. Everybody wants back in, not a single rant about how the Bitcoin ponzi destroyed their savings. I don't see all the doom and gloom Evolve sees.

Once you do, it'll be too late.  

Just remember, people said all of this in 2011 too.



I'll be the first to admit that a consolidation back into a bull market is possible, I just don't think its probable.

So you are shorting at plus500 or similar service? Or just hoping to buy back lower?

Trying to understand if you really put your money where your mouth is ;)

I am out of the market completely right now.  I'll think about buying back in when the dust settles.

For now, I am happy with the profits I made from this bubble.

Ok, so hoping to buy back lower. Kinda of a bull disguised as a bear you too... But very well disguised, I have to say.

Anyhow: if you'd be so sure we are going down you'd be shorting.

- $36 is bear market. If bears manage to get the price under $40 (and keep it under $68 till end of year) then this will depression.

Nope. I dont trade BTC with leverage. Market swings are to large, unpredictable, and can leave you with a margin call even within a known trend.

No, no, no, no.

"Bull" and "bear" dont describe some overriding market philosophy, just an outlook on the current market.

I really dont know why that's so hard for you people to understand.



From another thread that goes into this a bit:

BTC is a bitch, tremendously risky and unpredictable... But still it has too much potential to loose the opportunity to buy.

On the contrary, shorting BTC is simply crazy - even if in a bear market like the 2011 would be very profitable. But who's willing to take that risk now?

Not even evolve.

Bullish signals everywhere, flashing around, staring at you :D

Good luck, I learned my lesson about leverage from Bitcoinica ...  :D

Oh boy, you're in for a world of pain son. Shorting a stable if not slightly bull market. Well Good luck with that haha

This is not a bull market.

It is a bear one. Go for it buddy. I have $6000 in waiting to buy BTC at 95

You're obviously a bull. If you really thought we're in a bear market you would not buy at 95, that's just a small correction from where we are now.

That's not necessarily true.

You can still buy, sell, and profit even if you think the market is going down. Buying in doesn't necessarily make you bullish on the overall market.

You might be be waiting a long time, but maybe not too. Difficult to say right now, but if you do a search, you'll find plenty still waiting for the <$10 buy-in from the 2011 bubble. Opportunistic bears hoping to buy in cheap.

What you should have done, is bought in at $60, on the post-crash, but didn't and now feel bad. I'd love to get in at 90 again, but the market really has no care about my desires.

To be fair: he didn't say he's sure. He said he thinks it's more probable this will turn into a bear market but didn't rule out the possibility this is just a correction. If he isn't sure, it's not sensible for him to short.

For me, a bull wants to have acquired as many bitcoins as possible in the end. A bear wants to hold his profits in fiat in the end.

Ok, but in investment terms, "bear" and "bull" have specific meanings:





Maybe there is a better way to quantify those two groups (fiat vs btc)? What about people who want both? What "end"?

The end that is never reached: the very long run.

I agree my definition is probably not a very usable one, we should use the traditional "investment world" definitions. However my distinction is still sensible and there certainly are members to both groups on this forum.

The triple tops @115 and breakout with large volume @110 yesterday should trigger a bearish reversal, we will see a low 100ish within this week

Still going strong sir!

https://i.imgur.com/sUWMBgT.png (http://imgur.com/sUWMBgT)

to enter a bear market we need a lower low. Depending on timeframe there are 2 potential lows to break:

• the $80 low on 5/3 (red)
• the $50 low on 4/16 (yellow)

if we don't make a new low below $80, it's not a bear market but a correction (by investopedia definitions quoted further above). We could then enter a bull market or at least further consolodation pattern (green). Of course there's different options for "green", I just outlined roughly one of them. A break of the $170 top would clearly mean we're in a bull market again (both higher highs and higher lows would've been reached then)

I don't think we have to wait more than a month to see this resolved.

Investopedia's definition of bear market says nothing about lower lows. If the price is significantly below 266 in another month (as it is now), it will "officially" be a bear market.


However, I do think we will have to break through 50 before the bubble is "popped", and breakout above 150 would definitely signal a trend reversal.

oh, I'm sorry, I mixed up the definitions of "bear market" and "downtrend".

However I'm not sure a 80% drop (from $266 to $50) within one week followed by a 440% rise (from $50 to $220) over a period of 7 weeks - which in sum gives a "downturn of 20% within 2 months" - would constitute the estblishment of a bearmarket.

9 days ago you said it was about to get "crazy" and "this bubble is going to pop all the way". And 9 days later, it hasn't gone down.

When you're that dramatic, have charts, and you end up being wrong, you should probably take a break from forecasting BTC. At least stop making threads and bumping your old (wrong) predictions. Maybe stick to posting in the other 300 TA threads until you're back on your feet and you're confident enough to be starting threads with the "next big crazy move" that likely won't happen.

I have to say that I enjoy evolve's bearishness. It's well reasoned and he definitely has a cool sense of drama.

Man, look at the topic title: The Bear Market is on....Red candles still haunt my dreams

Every time I read it, it makes my day ;)

Holy shit, man it's only been 9 days. What do you expect to happen in a week and a half (besides the continued slide downward)? Money doesn't just disappear from the market. The last bubble popped over a period of months ( with insane volatility along the way), and I expect this one will play out in a similar way.

If what I say bothers you that much, click ignore and move on (I promise it won't hurt my feelings).

When you predict the end of the world, tell people to sell their investments, have a pretty chart with lines, that pretty much means you're trying to buy back in. Even if you weren't, turns out you were wrong and should probably stay quiet until God tells you where BTC is going again.

Hopefully no one listened because they probably lost money. Everytime a day trader sells his BTC, he runs to the forum and shits FUD until he can buy back in. We get it, you want the market to drop so you can get back into BTC. Act like a normal adult and save the drama. We don't need a new thread, we don't need chicken little charts, and stop telling people to buy or sell.

Ranting is for the wall tracker thread, it's easier if we keep all the histrionics there.

Well, it's pretyu clear to me that Evolve is waiting to buy back. He is out, and now he is looking to go back in at the best spot.

I think it's clear from his very first posts after April, 10th. ;)

I didn't realize that

Hold on to your pants guys...its gonna get crazy.  

Meant, hold onto your pants for weeks and weeks (maybe months), the market might drop (or it might not) and it might burst all the way down (or it might not).

And as for your money disappearing bullshit, we went from $266 to $105 in less then a day. That must have been magically money that had the ability to disappear, but this new money disappears much more slowly. So you don't know where BTC is going, and you don't know what happened to BTC in the past. You're 0 for 2.

It never recovered to 220, the bounce from 50 hit up to just above 160 on the 24th and hasn't been close since. The consistently lower highs would certainly constitute a downturn, the exact percentage will be known in a month.

 ;D

Your ADHD is your own problem, not mine. The market doesnt move on your time, it moves on its own time...if you cant handle that, go invest in bonds or CD's or something more predictable.


No, you jackass. People sold their BTC, but not everyone just yanked their money out of the market. Some stayed in fiat to see how low it would go, some bought back in at 50 hoping for a recovery (hence the bounce). While those who got burned really hard probably exited the market completely, plenty of people stayed in, which is why the bubble hasn't popped all the way yet (and why the bulls consolidation to recovery theory is still a small possibility).  When and If the market fails to recover, people will lose confidence that it will recover, and the price slides lower; but this doesn't happen overnight. We saw the same exact thing in 2011.

There's quite a lot of fiat sitting in Gox's order book, very close to ATH (which was something like $23M). Do you know if it's possible to find somewhere a bid sum graph for 2011? Blockchained data starts in Jan 2012.

http://www.blockchained.com/depth_mtgox_15d.png

http://www.blockchained.com/depth_mtgox.png

Seems that instead of buying in market orders as we went up, people got wise to the volatility and just started adding bids as there was a good chance they would be filled. Everyday that passes with this stability it seems that the likelihood of the general market strategy at present decreases.

the $220 was calculated by me to result in a total 20% downturn. (266 * 0.8). The 7 weeks have been calculated by me to make it a total of 2 month for that downturn.

I was trying to construct a hypothetical case where theres a 20% drop in 2 months (so it fits the bear market definition) yet clearly it's not a bear market because it has been rising by 340% for 7 weeks. That bear market definition of a 20% drop within 2 month clearly doesn't work for markets that go up and down 20% on some days. That was my point.

Why did I make that point? So I could reference this post should the hypothetical situation occur and you indeed say: "look, bear market confirmed: 20% down in 2 months".

Ok, I see where you are going with this now.

Not that I know of. 

OH A NEW THRE... oh wait, just renamed.  Again.
...
Oh Evolve, you so clevar!!1!

It would be interesting to see how fast the money was taken out from Gox's order book, compared to today - don't you think so?

Actual figure seems pretty healthy.

A lot of the wall could be fake, we've seen many fake walls come and go. That's the caution you need to take with these unregulated markets, an individual could easily place a fake bluff on either side to manipulate price movement, remove the bluff then take action once price has shifted.

So much butthurt around here...  :o

Tidbit-- just because some of you are entirely too emotional over short-term price movements, that doesn't mean that those of us who speculate in the speculation forum are trying to drive prices. Some of us also aren't so fucking stupid to think we could affect the market this way. Also, this thread doesn't qualify as FUD. See trolls like fourkey and jaroslaw for reference.

But seriously, dude? 9 days into a prediction of further downslide (with many references to 2011 ITT), and you cry like a bitch shouting strawmans like this? People like you are so much worse than the FUD trolls. If something is FUD, then analyze it as such and drop some knowledge on the forum. Don't bitch and create strawmans because you can't develop a superior argument.

Sorry for the derail. But fucking fuck, man.

+1

You could probably put one together if you can find historical data from Gox's raw feed.  Ironstove has a point, but I think cancelled orders show in the raw feed.

I'm quite sure short-term fake walls exist. We've all seen them in action. But a lot of people seem to have this idea that a large portion of the total mtgox order book are "fake" as well, put in there only to give a skewed impression of the market.

Problem is, all orders in the book are funded (or should be, in principle), meaning that whoever wants to manipulate the market long-term in such a way better has a few million USD lying around that he doesn't mind sitting in the mtgox order book, week after week. Gaining no interest whatsoever, when they could be put to use in other markets. And taken care of by a company that has a more than spotty history of reliability. Yeah. No way that could possibly be a bad idea to do.

yes but not in 5 years.

Perhaps. A lot can happen in five years, particularly with BTC. I personally think we will still be experiencing a boom and bust economy 5 years from now; whether the bubbles will get bigger each time, or dwindle down until interest is lost, is still a mystery.

Okay! *grabs pants*


I'm more of a vanilla guy but this sounds too good to pass up. Crazy Mode ON!


Free financial advice?! You're a gentleman and a scholar good sir!

Oh wait, 10 days later and the market is up. Well those nuggets of wisdom sure didn't pan out.

Great call Coinstradomus. For the communities sake (emotional and financial), maybe we can get a bounty going to stop you from sharing your BTC forecasting. I'm not sure if we can afford any more of your "help" navigating this crazy world we call Bitcoin.

Oh come on. Listening to his forecasts and especially acting on them is voluntary.

In addition: listening to anyones forecast and acting on them is reckless. Do your own due diligence.

The market is up?  The one struggling to trade over 120?  This is "up"?  Really? Really?  

The price was higher 5 days ago, but you go ahead and keep up that righteous indignation, sport.

Either contribute something of value to the thread or get the fuck out.

Fitty's shitposting aside, The breakout up is a short term bullish sign. Is this the bull theory coming to fruition?

Maybe. I'm not convinced, yet.  

Either way, looks like the consolidation might be over, guys....time to see some price movement. Place your bets.

Let the bulls have their days, it won't last long though.

Depending on the time frame the market is up.

Some noobs whether bull or bear are too ZOOMED in on their 1 minute chart to see the bigger picture.

It's like forecasting the weather while looking at 1 ant.

ie. The only way to forecast the weather accurately ;)

The art is to pick the right ant.

haha it's like LUCK now...

Go look at the lows from 6 months to 3 months to 1 month etc.  they have consistently increased up until today.  We are just getting back to where should be right now go look at a logarithmic chart. we are right where we are supposed to be right now.  As for the 2011 crash people weren't hurt unless they sold and if they held until today they still be up 400 % even if they bought in at the top of the 2011 bubble.  A 400 % return in two years is amazing

Yes, it is. However this thread is about price in the short to mid term (weeks and months) for the most part. Where the price will be in the long term is anyone's guess.

Best thread title ever. Let's not confuse rigor, for emotional porn though :D

Welp, no real breakout yesterday....more indecision today? Will the slide down continue?


Looking back from the day before I started the thread until now: (6 hour chart)

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=10&i=2-hour&c=1&s=2013-04-30&e=2013-05-12&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

Yesterdays "rally" had trouble breaking through 120. No significant movement down either....and just like that, we are back where we started.

At how many % do you consider it a breakout?
I believed that if you break through the resistance with volume, it was a breakout.  ???

Yes, that was a breakout.

By "real" breakout, I meant something big enough to move us out of the larger consolidation pattern.  

Didn't happen, I agree. 125 needs to be broken for new uptrend.

That's a kind of mealy-mouthed response. Stay intelectually honest, or you're no better than rpietila when he's high on power silver polish.

Anyway.

The fact that we didn't break 125 yesterday shows that any hypothesized uptrend is far from certain. I admit that much.

But the fact that we're not even getting close to a new lower low, or even anywhere near 100, firmly puts the ball in the court of the "the bubble is not yet over" evangelists to explain how they believe the correction will play out from here.

tl;dr The original correction down trend is simply broken now. The original (mid january) growth trend is not confirmed, but still plausible.

very well said. This is exactly the situation. Old downtrend is off the table. New one is not in sight. New uptrend also not established, but seems a lot easier to achieve than a new downtrend. [/img]

https://i.imgur.com/GdlnBdVl.png (https://i.imgur.com/GdlnBdV.png)

$125 and $80 are the levels to watch. When one of these is broken, a new up-/downtrend is established

https://i.imgur.com/P7pDTne.png

I see somewhat of a bearish wedge from the bottom at 79 (although resistance is not rising). That flatline in the middle was the DDOS right? Otherwise I think we may have seen movement closer to 125. The previous support we saw at 120-125 is now resistance. Slight break in volume trend on that "breakout" but not far outside general downtrend. Not much strength to this short-term rise.

Y u no log charts?  :'(

good point, I'll check it out next time.

what's the reasoning for log-charts again? Because then you're "looking at relative changes"?

I agree with this.  Though, I would call it a continuation of the downtrend or a new uptrend.

I also think that the longer we stay at these levels, the less likely we are to break out into a new uptrend, because investors will continue to lose faith that the market will recover.  The fact that the recent good news/hype  (Gyft, China, ATM, etc) didn't really push the price near our previous levels tells me the hype machine is dead for now. I think it will take will take some amazing news to push us back upwards past 125.

Exactly.

What do you think is the latency between actual good news -- news that truly makes a difference -- and an increase in price?

I think the latency has two components:
1) an immediate increase when fence-sitters that already have funds on the exchanges make buys
2) a second wave a few days later when additional USD hits the exchanges.

After the Gyft announcement Friday, there was a spike to $122 just hours later, and another $200k buy a little later.  I think this is an indication that the Gyft announcement is being seen as big news, and as such, there could be a second wave of USD hitting the exchanges on Monday or Tuesday. 

I don't think this means that it's about to turn into a bull market, just that I don't see the price dropping.  I think we'll stay in the $110-$125 zone for a while longer.  I can't imaging the price staying below $100 for very long -- too many people consider these to be "cheap" coins -- but going over $125 in the next week would require a whale with many millions.  I certainly wouldn't bet money against the latter happening.  There are more people with millions of spare USD than there are bitcoiners with tens of thousands of coins. :)

Zero. The market will internalize all news way before they take effect or even before you hear the news and have the opportunity to act on it. The best news indicator is the ticker itself, if it's up it must be China hype time, if it's down is mtgox lawsuit time.

Ok, who is doing this then? Some people with visions selling/buying before the news is out?
Even if I'm the only one reacting on a news, I already render your argument invalid.

It doesn't matter who's the precise agent that conveys the information into the market. It could be someone who was lucky to refresh the news page in the moment it was posted. Or maybe he knows the reporter. Or maybe he simply used his deductive powers.

It's irrelevant because it's like winning the lottery. You won't be him; reacting to good or bad news is a beginner's mistake, by the time you learn about it it's too late to act. I'm not saying you should not use information: maybe you have a unique predictive formula that uses the EBITDA and tells you if the stock is any good. So news about the EBIDTA of a company is useful to you. "Apple EBIDTA way above expectations" is useless, the stock price is already up.

This is true for real-world markets, but Bitcoin lives in alternative universe :D

That statement, in it's unabashed generality, is plain retarded. According to your hypothesis, stock markets fell preemptively before 9/11 because "maybe they knew the reporter". Or "maybe they simply used their deductive power".

Since there is no way to price a bitcoin and the price is entirely emotional, when they hear the news people are speculating about "what effect would this news have on the emotions of the other players ?". It's still en efficient market, albeit it has no connection whatsoever to reality. Well, emotions are real, I guess.


That's a complete strawman and has little to do with what I actually said. It's not that hard to understand: when you see towers collapsing on TV it's too late to call your broker. Of course someone made that "lucky" order that cleared the bid side and closed the day without a huge loss. It's irrelevant because 99.99% of time it won't be you. Everybody else, including you, had a huge loss on 9/11 and panic selling on the news would have exacerbated that loss.

Doesn't make much sense to me either. The market is created by people buying or selling. News can influence this behaviour of course, though I believe mainly speculators will "react" to freshly surfaced information.

"Ordinary" BTC users (the guys who bring fresh money for the traders) buy BTC to use it or sell BTC because they've got no use it for it. They will do so when they need to - or want to. Which may be months after let's say Amazon enabled BTC as a payment option.

Fair enough.

It's probably hairsplitting, but I don't subscribe to that view because the old downtrend (upper line marked "1 (broken)" in my pic) was broken. So the trend-channel was invalidated. So technically -- I could argue if I was nitpicking -- it'd indeed be new downtrend (that would have to be established by hitting a new low) and we're currently not in one, in fact we're not trending at all.

We're smurfing along, at least on the timescale I'm looking at things.

but then a straigt line is actually a exponential curve... isn't that a problem?

you forget 2 more effects:

0) even before the news hits, some insiders are buying/selling
3) if news is really big and/or far-reaching, fresh newbs are activated. latency about 6 weeks.

EDIT: after reading discussion above: I think you're all correct.

The latency from good news to related price action is 0 (or even negative, my item "0.)" ).

However most of the time there will be more action also related to the news with positive latency (items "1.)", "2.)", "3.)")

Good point, but I'd say the latency for n00bs is 1-6 weeks.  Some n00bs are faster than others.

In my book, relevant recent news:
* CFTC "looking at bitcoin", legitimizing bitcoin in many eyes - 5/8
* Gates calls Bitcoin a "tour de force" - 5/8 (remember, there are 12,000 Microsoft millionaires that have followed him)
* $5M investment in Coinbase "biggest investment yet in Bitcoin" - 5/9
* Gyft opening up 50,000 retail locations to on-demand bitcoin spending: 5/10

disclosure: I went long over the weekend, so please point out any selective blindness you may see in my possibly post-hoc rationale. :)

Nice post. It looks like we are at a critical juncture , we're either going up or down. I think we could see a big movement downwards in the next week, as people realise price is not going up. With the price holding so stable recently, a large downwards movement is overdue.

No, because the slope of the line is proportional to the growth rate.  It shows change in growth rate much better than looking at the linear scale chart and just seeing it shoot to the moon and not much other detail.

Either up or down!? That's a pretty impressive analysis.

The bulls are running out of time to set the trend.  If they don't do it in the next few days you can expect a bear raid.

Yes, I have been following that line of thought as well. In my opinion, there is (so far) more evidence in favor of comparing the current correction to the 2012 bubble than to the 2011 bubble. The single most important factor: the SHARP decline immediately after the peak, in both the 2013 and 2012 bubble vs. the slower, more "reluctant" decline of the 2011 bubble.

Yet, the permabears keep on mentioning the 2011 bubble only, because it conveniently allows them to remain vague on the question of how exactly they think the current correction will play out.

"It will take at least 3 months for us to go back to normal!", they say, "And we will go down veeerrry verrry much!", they add. So much for short-term precision, and falsifiability.

(Disclaimer: I exclude SlipperySlope from the sarcastic description above. He is more and more including *falsifying* conditions to his posts, which I greatly appreciate)

What are you talking about?

This thread has been sixteen pages of reasons why the price is unsustainable,  why we got here, where we are going from here, the conditions it would take to get us there, and what could turn us around.

The bear argument has been anything but vague.

You may not agree with the analysis, you might not like the analysis, but don't pretend the analysis has no basis or validity.   


Such as?




"Reluctant"? No sharp decline after the peak? Are we looking at the same charts?!?!  The slow slide down happened after a hard crash from the peak and a correction leading to an apparent consolidation period (sound familiar?). 

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=&i=6-hour&c=1&s=2011-05-13&e=2011-07-14&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&
(2011)

Using the evening news to try to time the market is a fool's game, but there is such a thing as slow adjustment. Information is not always incorporated into a market price immediately. Moreover bitcoin is a small market with numerous obstacles to trade (exchanges closing, DDOS, moving money in and out of gox takes ages for many people, etc).

Hey evolve.

Noticed how I mentioned SlipperySlope as being an exception to the imprecise, thoughtless, irrational permabear evangelist crowd?

Yeah, you understood that one correctly. The implication was that you are one of them.

On to your attempts at refutation:

re: sharp decline

Let's look at the numbers:

2011 bubble. Peak: June 8th, 32 USD. Lowest point after 10 days: June 12th, 10 USD.

Correction: minus 69%

2013 bubble. Peak 263. Lowest point after 10 days: April 16th, 50 USD.

Correction: minus 81%.

I'm sure you will tell me that's hardly different, right?

Like I said, the intellectually lazy approach you chose will always find similarities and ignore differences in order to prove your point.

re: vagueness & falsifiability

Your 16 pages "reasons why the price is unsustainable" are worth exactly as much as the amount you got paid to produce them. Others here (the permabull crowd, obviously) have produced similar "reasons" for why we will reach 300k USD by the end of the day. I ignore both of those pseudo arguments.

The only thing that counts are a) your model and its predictions, b) your estimations of how certain you are those predictions will come true and c) the circumstances under which you consider your model refuted or confirmed.

Doesn't have to be all numbers, this is not a peer-reviewed publication after all. Go take a look at the post history of SlipperSlope, you might learn something: he has been writing both about points that confirm his predictions as well as those that contradict it. In your post history, I see almost nothing like that (a few days ago the mealy mouthed admission that maybe we have a short-term uptrend, but not *really* as you were quick to add).

This is not about the question whether the correction is over. I don't know that (and neither do you). This is about you not providing a single new estimate of a new correction downtrend now that the old one has been thoroughly broken. This is about you equating the 2011 bubble and the 2013 bubble because they somehow "look alike". Your commentary is worthless until you start acknowledging those predictions that you made that were wrong, and adjusting your theory accordingly. And you haven't done anything like that yet as far as I have seen.

(by the way, no need to tell me to do the same... I'm far from being in a particularly bullish mood. I just prefer to describe the market as objective as possible, rather than looking at it through bull or bear-shaped glasses)

Alright, I'll bite.

I've been posting along those lines for a few times in the Wall Observer thread, so here's the barebone argument only:

Based on my order book calculations (bid and ask totals, recent changes, and order book price composition), as well as money flow and momentum indicators of the past 2 weeks, and the fact that since the beginning of May no data points for any of the hypothesized downtrends exist anymore (while the mid-January uptrend is still possible, even if unlikely), I conclude the following:

a) We are still in a consolidation phase. Movement in the coming week will be slow (barring world-changing news of course).

b) Whether the correction is finished or not is too difficult to determine, and I would suggest not to waste time on trying to do so. Predicting the price movement of the coming week(s) is difficult enough, and sufficient knowledge for most speculators to act upon.

c) I see a short-to-medium uptrend as the slightly more likely scenario than a further downward movement, for the reasons outlined above (money entering the order book), and the fact that according to the growth trend that brought us into the 100+ range, we're still *slightly* over target (the mid-January trend has us at around 100 now, so we're 17 above target right now), which means sideways trading for now works in favor of this trend.

As for my own falsifying conditions:

A sharp price decline below 100 within the coming week or two will invalidate my points made above. Falling to a new low will obviously be extremely strong evidence that the correction continues with full strength. I am not entirely ruling out that over the course of the coming week money will leave the market and prices might decline, and a sub-100 scenario could unfold, but I fully expect signs for this drop to manifest in the order book and money flow indicators first.

Really enjoyed your analysis - I came to more or less your same conclusions observing the market, including the falsifying conditions.

Nevertheless I have to say that evolve raised some valid points too. It's true he has his very own sense of bearish drama that some bulls may dislike, but I have to admit that I personally enjoy it :D

I stopped reading there. Interpretation and opinion should never be called a fact.

Yeah, I expected nothing less than that as a response from you. True intelligence always shines through :)

Nice. That means you read a bit more than 50% of my post.

On a related note: What happened? You used to write always entertaining, usually insightful, occasionally bearish posts. Now they're always bearish, and about the rest... I don't know. Get back to the old shape, I suggest.

If by "soapbox" you mean me wanting to come here to call you out on your sloppy methodology, then yes, that's exactly what I want.

hey guys, quit bickering and sell some bitcoins... the price is rising

People are getting bored of waiting for bitcoin's price to go up. Soon, they'll give up and just dump them, meaning cheap coins for us all :D

Guys stop fighting. It really looks pathetic.

"No you suck, no you suck, no you suck..."

You both suck okay?  :P

Now back to this bear analysis...lol  ::) ::) ::)

this thread has degraded substantially.

on a more constructive (kind of) note:

We have invalidated pretty much all trends / triangles we can draw and are smurfing along beyond the apex of the grand correction triangle.

What does this mean? Which TA constructs can be used now?

I feel lost.

You're right. I have removed my posts that contributed to the derail.




Low volume and sideways trading means the market is unsure.

All we can do now is wait until the price breaks out of this trading range. When the price breaks in one direction or another, I it could go all the way to the next major support. That said, we could see more false starts that fall quickly back into consolidation along the way. For now, you cant really do much until a pattern makes itself evident.  :-\

Watch the charts (or set price alerts) and be prepared to make a move at any point.

I am of the belief that you do nothing until it is obvious that you have a buy or sell signal. Obvious meaning seriously over sold or over bought.

Coiling - each and every time we go horizontal for awhile, at some point we go up.

---> Date Registered:   July 11, 2012, 02:38:04 AM

That explains a lot.  ;)

Not every time - remember July 2011?

Anyhow, i see many differences between today and 2011. Sure, no more parabolic growth, so a lot of the "get rich quick" wannabe speculators might have lost interest. Others are waiting for cheaper coins, but I believe the majority of investors know that Bitcoin is healthier than ever - this did not happen in 2011.

I'm ready (and hoping) for cheaper coins, but IMHO $50 was the bottom for this year - so no slow and deep bubble collapse. Mid term we are going up.

Both bears and bulls are right since we are in a range market :(

Looks like we finally got a little bit of movement again. No test of old lows so far, but the day isn't over yet.

Thoughts?

We are going down.

The market didn't know where to go, but now there's an obvious direction.

price to go down to 70ish!

The bull case still has some ground to stand on, but they need to hold it here.  Daily RSI bouncing below 50 may make that difficult.

Don't be so sure, the bitcoin market likes traps.

Next support @97.5

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=60&i=12-hour&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=S&b=D&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&

This was just a single/group sell off... Fueled by lag and insanity...  Already it is recovering.  The last few days have had a consistent moving support  up (though a resistance at 120, which probably spurred the sell off).

If I were to guess its the same people that boosted the price to 122 a few days back, they missed their 122 opportunity, saw it was bouncing off the 120 resistance and decided to cash out.  And as usual, everyone got gox'ed but at least it was only a min or so lag.

Now could this action cause a trend down, sure...  but it is too short of a timeframe to tell considering the last few days have been pretty "slow" to begin with.

Last chance to get out while in the triple digits.  :P

I don't know, I have trouble believing that this was some sort of coordinated selloff.  I think a small downward move triggered a panic sell, and the Dwolla/Homeland Security news probably didn't help matters, either.  The market is on edge right now, and I think small moves can get over exaggerated because of the uncertainty.


For now it still looks like there is heavy downward pressure to me. I dont know that we are recovering just yet.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=940&m=mtgoxUSD&SubmitButton=Draw&r=2&i=5-min&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&t=C&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&v=1&cv=0&ps=0&l=0&p=0&
(2 day / 5 min, closing price *live chart*)

I guess the Dwolla situation is the type of FUD that could scare some overinvested folks. "First governamental action against Bitcoin" could be a headline soon (really don't know it, let's see how this unfolds).

EDIT: By the way, didn't the crash started as soon as the first users reported about Dwolla's email?

Just about the same time yes.

Mystery solved, then....it's a panic sell from bad news. 

That is pretty fast reaction time, 50% of the drop occurred in less then 15min, given the steady rise the last few days...  Even it was a reaction to the news, only a few dropped big stacks of coin and the lag took over for the other 50%.

I still think it is too early to tell, a 10% drop isn't insane, but granted the news of the Dwolla/mtGox is getting worse... just saw that article that quoted this is probably the US saying enough is enough, if that IS the case then we are all doomed! :)

EDIT: I will add the volume looks to be returned(ing they are too small to tell lol) to normal.

10 seconds to login to mtgox

5 second to set price

1 second to press sell button

16 seconds so yeah it can be fast.

We're probably entering a decline that will last for days if not weeks.

As much of a bull that I am...i tend to agree with this.

Take some profit guys. Just saying. Or be patient.

At last common sense from smoothie  ;)

Pfssh I've got common sense even when I'm a super ultra bull lol.

What I post on this forum isn't necessarily what I am doing in person lol.

Dont be fooled so easily.

But take some profit.  :P

Smoothie has like 12 accounts!

As it started, I was driving and I went all ape shit!

I'm not so sure this will last several days, I think the market may be overreacting to the dwolla news. When things are cleared up and it turns out it isn't as bad as it seems then price will shoot back up fast I think. Or perhaps it's really that bad after all, but my gut tells me that it is an overreaction and people assume the worst due to lack of information.

This coming form a guy who created his account on April 23, 2013.

LOL yeah i have 12 accounts and I create them every 2 years lol

Is it just me, or does any else see a dragon in that chart?

Now I see it.  :o

If this is the end of the old order, wouldn't we want to buy all the bitcoins?

Thoughts: there's plenty of support at 100, 90, 80. If 80 falls we're in a serious downtrend and will likely test 50 again.

I doubt it, though. Europeans are waking up currenlty and might drive the price down to $100. Maybe even $90. I'd be genuinely surprised if we break below $90. We might even bottom above $100, but I wouldn't bet too much on it.

On the upside I don't feel any considerable rally coming and $125 doesn't look like it's going down any time soon.

Trading range $80 ($90) <-> $125 ($115) could yield good profits if nerves hold.

No coins rushed to the exchange after the Dwolla news. Fiat rushed out ($4M instantly vanished from the order book), but BTC did not rush in (almost no change in the ask sum) - which makes sense, if you use Dwolla there's no point in exchanging your un-seizable currency for seizable fiat.

I guess these were just speculators who rapidly reacted to these news to sell high and buy low - I personally did that as soon as I read those news. I made a market sell at $116ish and I bought back shortly after at $109ish. I guess many traders did exactly the same thing.

Let's see how this situation unfolds.

http://www.blockchained.com/depth_mtgox_15d.png

Uggh. As much as I dont want to, I am going to have to buy back into the market temporarily to move my funds from Mt.Gox.  Looks like the jig is up for US customers there.  The big question then becomes which exchange gets targeted next...I dont think DHS is going to stop with Gox.

Any suggestions on where I should go? I'm thinking about Bitstamp since I have used them in the past to flip XRP, but I'm still not certain about them.

I am using btce once you disable the trollbox it's quite bearable. But you would get quite a haircut if you were to do this right now.

What's the rush ? Unless you need to withdraw immediately I'd just leave it in MtGox or do a wire from MtGox to the US.

The order book on bitstamp is pretty thin looking.

My concern is that wire transfers wont be possible much longer either. Honestly, I wouldnt be surprised of Mt.Gox's domain gets seized (killing any chance of getting my money back).

Thats my concern about bitstamp as well.

What about CampBX - that's meant to be all properly registered in the US from what I've read. I have no idea on their order book depth though.

I have an account on BTC-E, but rarely use it (I think I have a few alt coins there), but they have always struck me as a bit shady too.

I'll look into them...

I seriously doubt any domain seizures will occur as the US bank account seizure has nothing to do with mtgox.com or bitcoin.  From the feds' point of view, money was sent from Dwolla account A to Mark Karpales' Wells Fargo account; then from Mark's Wells Fargo account to Dwolla account B.  Case closed: Mark's Wells Fargo account is operating as a money transmitting business, entire enclosed within US borders, and can be seized for lack of a license.  Why he didn't sign up for a license is beyond me.

I used to think like that too, but they are in Russia which still is pretty much as far from US influence as it can get imo.
Next, I don't view them as any more shady than others. The dilettante image actually strikes me as positive in a way, no pretending and no bullshit.

DHS is specifically targeting MtGox, though.  Right now they are doing it through the most convenient means, through shutting down bank accounts. I highly doubt they are going to stop there, though.

IMO, If they cant take down the exchange through seizing accounts, they will do it in court. This is also going to set a precedent on how they handle the other exchanges dealing in the US as well.

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2013/05/feds-reveal-the-search-warrant-that-seized-mt-gox-account/

Even if Gox went bankrupt as a result of seizures, you'd still likely be able to apply for remission... and get paid out a small percentage of what you were owed.....years later.  ;)


Doesn't matter. If the feds take the position that Gox is violating US laws, seizure of their domains is entirely plausible. It is too early to say what will happen.


Indeed, we can't speculate that this ends here. It is very plausible that this is the tip of the iceberg.

Looks like my prediction was correct: The price overshot, then oscilated back and forth finding the market price of a bitcoin. Now we are at the market price of a bitcoin until further news. Resume business as normal.

evolve,

I'm with you. Mostly out of laziness, I had all my trading funds on Mt Gox. That's just too much risk.  The recent events left me a bit rushed, so I temporarily pulled things to a local wallet.  After spending a few days, I decided to throw a little into CampBX. Their splash screen sent me the message "We get security, and we're gonna play by the rules in the USA".  I also read between the lines that they have a strong management team behind them.  A smart elevator pitch on entry to their site.  A marketing campaign to compel viral growth.  My first impression, they're at least giving off the appearance of professionality.  I guess time will tell.

Yeah, it's clear quite an important amount of coins left Gox.

I'm watching this closely, there will be a lot of money to be made when the market reacts to any news like this. Especially on the short side.

So how is everyone feeling about the current price move?

This feels like a déjà vu.

It should. I've been waiting for a significant move in either direction to bump the thread....I certainly didn't think it would take this long though. The long slow slide has been longer and slower than I originally thought.



How many true believers do we have left? Anyone still thinking we are going to $10,000 this year?

I'm still a true believer. Never thought $10,000 this year was possible. I actually voted "never" in the respective poll (suggesting the USD would cease to exist before that).

Let's remain realistic: yes, the bears were/are right and I was too bullish / in denial when the bubble popped. It really looks like a long slow slide down like in 2011.

However: the fundamental situation is not like it was in 2011. Back then it was all doom and gloom and a large portion of the community and even more so the rest of the world truly believed bitcoin was dead. There was talk of dead cat bounces and blood was running in the streets of these forums. This is not the situation we see now and I don't believe it's going to come to that.

Let's look at some numbers: The 2011 pop yielded a "correction" (lol) of ~94%. Same thing applied to 2013 would result in a price of $16.5 / BTC. Currently we're at 70% off from the $266 high.

Again, realistically speaking: If you think we'll see blood on the streets of this forum again exactly like in 2011, selling now and buying at roughly the bottom ($16.5) would quadruple ones bitcoin holdings. He who thinks bitcoin is doomed to fail this time should be all out by now. In my mind, a realistic bottom is going to be put in at $30, $50 or $80.

The ones shooting for a bottom too low will be left holding the fiat bag.

the price probed the current level 3 times within the last 2 months and bumped back up. If anything this indicates that people are unwilling to sell below the current level.

Network difficulty is shooting up dramatically now. Once production cost and market price for BTC become similar (+- 20%) it changes the dynamics. Many miners are speculators who invest in mining equipment in order to acquire bitcoins at a lower price point. However, if mining becomes unprofitable, those people will just buy from the market and likely start another rally. Likely to start around september - or earlier if price keeps falling.

+100, but let's face that the absence of gloom and doom compared to 2011 is a double faced coin. Despair and capitulation are unavoidable, and this time the decline will be slower (and thus more painful) because there are more bulls in denial.

Agreed on the three bottoms, but $80 is a tad too optimistic, I'd bet on $50 or $30ish

+1 from me too Molecular. Rampion, why is despair and capitulation unavoidable in this correction?

Because its not a correction, it's a bubble deflating, and before BTC can start a new growth trend it needs to be undervalued and oversold.

$80 will def not be the bottom. $70 might be the bottom for July/August though. I think 60s under current market conditions will just trigger huge monster buys.

Next mini rally will begin when it gets sold off hard into low 80s. If that doesn't trigger bullish momentum then 70s and downhill until BTC gets mainstream hype again.

Exact same thing can happen now. The doom and gloom only developed once we were WELL into the bear market and nearing $2. The point is that sentiment is lagging and you can see the same thing happening and Wired and Forbes spinning something nice, only this time with regulation/convertability/altcoin fears instead of hacks and whatnot.

How is USD a bag? USD is opportunity. If Bitcoin doesn't offer you a good deal, you can always go elsewhere. Things have been collapsing against the dollar.

So we have a USD in deflation :D

How do you know that this will not just be a correction but that this will be a bubble deflating?

I'm asking as I'm not sure. I would agree that chances are higher for the price to go down over the next half year.

However, I also think there is a smaller but real chance that it won't and we trend higher the coming half year.

You seem very certain this won't happen. I'm wondering what makes you so certain?

You sound so sure of this, almost as if you're speaking about cold hard facts. Except you don't. Undervalued and oversold are subject to interpretation, there is no specific value you can pinpoint when this will be the case. The new growth trend could start from today, or next week. Or never. You don't know, I don't know. And that's a real fact. Too many bulls in denial? That's just your opinion and your point of view.

But deflation is economy killing evil, and must be avoided at all costs! Warm up the printing presses, we have to print faster!

I think because of the magnitude of the previous bubble.  Big-ass bubbles like that require a big-ass deflation.  Nonetheless, personally, the majority of my "BTC allocated money" is still in BTC instead of fiat, just because I mainly want to play the long-term game, and don't want to be the guy who misses the train and keeps hoping for a decent drop.  The market can always prove you wrong.  Still, it's nice to have some fiat available and hope for some "really cheap coins".

Everything points to a bubble deflating and not to a correction. The "correction" case is still remotely possible, but it gets weaker and weaker each day that passes.

I'm not 100% sure about the market, nobody can be. But I know that statistically there are much more chances for the price to go down mid term, than to go up. This is how the post-bubble plays out 99% of the times (and the 1% that didn't it was because it was not a bubble in the first instance), and for those arguing that the run-up from $20ish to $266 was not a bubble I have a lot of counter-arguments (primarily based in common sense and logic) about how we indeed witnessed a speculative mania phase that led to a spectacular bubble.

Now, BTC is following a consistent downwards trend since April, 10th, full of bull traps and sucker rallies, but a consistent downwards trend nevertheless. I just see the trend and I do not fight it.

This.

This and this only. Your own feelings have nothing to do with it.

Stolen from another thread:

https://i.minus.com/jb2fcHCgEJspoT.jpg

smart man.

I fully agree, am doing the same. Buy and hold would have earned me around 500% with bitcoin this year, I am around 1000% by simply selling as it goes up and buying as it goes down.

What signals do you use to decide when a trend is about to change?

I am not using signals. I have a fixed allocation to bitcoins, say 20% of my portfolio, if bitcoins go up this 20% becomes say 25% of my portfolio and I sell 5% so it's back to 20%, and when it goes down it drops to say 18% of my portfolio, I buy btc as to bring it back up to 20% of my portfolio.

I explain more about my strategy in this thread:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=186617.msg1933492#msg1933492

Ah, that makes a lot of sense. I'm still getting a feel for a lot of this. I feel like I've gotten through the panic buy/sell phase, having lost a bit in the process of selling low and buying high a few times, and now the trends and changes are starting to feel a bit more normal/obvious. Your strategy sounds a lot less risky, and still quite lucrative.

Great to hear it's useful for you. I also lost lots of money buying the high and selling the low. It took me 10 years to get some decent results, and I'm still learning.

Be careful catching those falling knives, guys.  It's really easy to get caught on the wrong side of the trade in this market.

I did.  Many times from mid 2011 to the bottom.  I was slashed up pretty good.  It theorized that all that grabbing would eventually have me buying at the bottom so I kept some power dry throughout and even had one last batch queued up but never deployed.  I always gave some odds that it would be one of the better financial moves of my lifetime and so far that looks on track to be the case.  At this point I'm just waiting for the next 'bubble' to start to genuinely capitalize though I did make myself whole fiat-wise at about 10x.  I've engineered things pretty well to never need to 'panic', but being netted to zero give extra psychological comfort to wait however many years it takes to find a good selling point, or even stand by in a complete failure of Bitcoin if that should occur.

I'm buying, as a professional day trader I can see a HnS pattern that is bottoming and I see higher prices from here

Also, remember that we have a long-term potential with this disruptive technology that is about to change the world as we know it

I don't see a reverse head and shoulders really, but maybe you're right

Good luck with that. Up, Up, Up !  ::)

Me too.  I got shredded this year...I did alright on the way down in 2011, but got too cocky this year. I am still ahead, but just barely.

Sad to hear, particularly tragic when you wrongly stray from your initial view (I remember your "red candles still haunt my dreams" and have felt exactly the same for a long time).

as someone who bought in < $10/coin initially but currently mine my coins, I welcome this.  I also have no plans on cashing out anytime soon so the exchange rate is meaningless to me for a very long time.

I'm sorry :(

I am also taking a hit now. Losing 30% of a large investment in just 5 days, pfew. Been loading up on the way down, no rebound whatsoever :/

Double checking whether my strategy is the right one ...

It happens... I only have a token amount "invested" anyways, and risk is what makes trading fun (and its still cheapeer than vegas, lol  ;)  ).

yeah, I know the feeling.

I only consider myself a 'trader' because I've shifted to the frequency domain.  In the time domain I would have to claim to have lost a huge amount of money (by my standards) by virtue of not cashing out a bunch during the big run-up.  I mean, the difference between buying and not selling is minimal.

In the frequency domain (buying low, selling high) I'm sitting pretty, but when one converts back to the time domain, one finds that years have passed.  Boring.  But I'd rather be bored than broke, and I always planned on spending many years with Bitcoin...if it lasts that long that is.

I'm just hoping that CampBX won't be on the fritz when the price bottoms out, cause I want to nab some cheap coins...

Well I bought 500 btc in at $15 around November last year  saw them shoot up to $220 within a few months where I sold. All I have to say it was the best investment I ever made, once in a lifetime but what a roller coaster it was but I got to say I am as happy as a pig in shit now thinking how lucky I have been

Missed potential profit doesn't really count as a loss, so I wouldn't worry about it too much.

how stupid do you feel right now?

This is incorrect. There was no 'potential' profit, there was actual profit that was lost afterwards. Yes, that is a loss. Just like it was a gain before.