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1061  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 20, 2021, 11:04:11 AM
bit of a fat finger or somthing on bitstamp. I missed seeing it live but chart looks interesting.
1062  Economy / Speculation / Re: Microstrategy keep buying bitcoin. How if they become the biggest BTC HODLer? on: March 19, 2021, 12:25:10 AM
The biggest question is at what price will Microstrategy and Tesla dump their bitcoins    Wink

Dump? into what exactly? USD?

In case no one has been following the whole point of their purchases was to get out of USD. Why would they hold USD in their tresuaries, that particular shitcoin is being devalued at a rate that exceeds most other shitcoins out there.

And being that companies can get USD for essentially free these days via debt that is backed by the FED, why they bother selling any assets for USD.
1063  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2021, 08:31:07 AM
I have offically joined the ranks of retired WO gentleman. Working just seems kinda pointless.

I don't have any immediate plans to sell a big chunck of my stash - I'll just dip into it as needed.

Go Bitcoin go!


I think this might be becoming a thing... my last day is April 2nd..  officially retiring early.  Sold a smallish chunk to diversify so that if we have an 80% crash, I can ride it out without selling the dip... but yeah.. mostly the same plan.   good feelings Smiley

Definitely good to see people freeing themselves from slavery via BTC.

I can retire myself, but my employer is currently going through a large round of layoffs, so I'll be getting redundancy later on this year. Free money is free money, so I can wait.

It's nice to get 6-12 mo of free money.
I haven't decided yet.

I'm pretty damn lucky that's for sure.
1064  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 18, 2021, 05:26:54 AM
I have offically joined the ranks of retired WO gentleman. Working just seems kinda pointless.

I don't have any immediate plans to sell a big chunck of my stash - I'll just dip into it as needed.

Go Bitcoin go!


I think this might be becoming a thing... my last day is April 2nd..  officially retiring early.  Sold a smallish chunk to diversify so that if we have an 80% crash, I can ride it out without selling the dip... but yeah.. mostly the same plan.   good feelings Smiley

Definitely good to see people freeing themselves from slavery via BTC.

I can retire myself, but my employer is currently going through a large round of layoffs, so I'll be getting redundancy later on this year. Free money is free money, so I can wait.
1065  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 17, 2021, 09:43:43 AM
Things are happening, even if the price doesn't reflect it at the moment.

Quote
CEO of NYDIG, "In the next week, you'll see gamechanging milestones for #bitcoin
 adoption in the financial landscape"
Eyes

https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1371923894043561987

Quote
Visa CEO Claims Cryptocurrencies Could Become "Extremely Mainstream"

https://u.today/visa-ceo-claims-cryptocurrencies-could-become-extremely-mainstream
1066  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 16, 2021, 12:43:17 PM
Interesting analysis over on Willy Woos twitter regarding the supposed 19k bitcoin transfer to Gemini.

https://twitter.com/woonomic

Apparently CryptoQuant sent out a tweet saying that a large inflow to Gemini had just occured, and it means that a whale is about to dump. Minutes later the market dumped. However, there was no evidence to say that this was a whale about to dump and due to the liquidity of the exchange it would make zero sense for a whale to do so. But that didn't stop CryptoQuant from effectively manipulating the market. Pretty unprofessional. The coins are no suspected of belonging to BlockFi.

Anyway, more cheap coins for the true beleivers so all good.

Not only that, but CQ did this at least twice - now and before the previous dump. May be this is the new FUDster trying to manipulate the market with his charts and tweets? Or advertising his website? Let's hope the 3rd time nobody will fall for such FUD. I wouldn't pay for such BS and don't trust both CQ and Glassnode. Anyway, only weak hands can dump because of such FUD, which is good. In a bull market 20-30% corrections are recovered in 1-2 weeks, 10% in several days. The window of cheap coins below 60K is going to close anytime soon. Let's see now how the stimulus checks will impact the market. It is funny that my wild guess of 10% going to buy bitcoins is confirmed by a survey claiming that 10% will go mostly to Bitcoin and less to stocks:


CQ has been a bit sus to me for a little while. All the f2pool dumping FUD was coming from them as well, the numbers just didn't add up. To be fair to Glassnode they are indeed trying to do things right, and this little episode has shown that they were.

Yeah, all a moot point in the end the stimulus money will flow and soon enough we'll be over 70k.
1067  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 16, 2021, 12:14:53 PM
Interesting analysis over on Willy Woos twitter regarding the supposed 19k bitcoin transfer to Gemini.

https://twitter.com/woonomic

Apparently CryptoQuant sent out a tweet saying that a large inflow to Gemini had just occured, and it means that a whale is about to dump. Minutes later the market dumped. However, there was no evidence to say that this was a whale about to dump and due to the liquidity of the exchange it would make zero sense for a whale to do so. But that didn't stop CryptoQuant from effectively manipulating the market. Pretty unprofessional. The coins are no suspected of belonging to BlockFi.

Anyway, more cheap coins for the true beleivers so all good.

The fact that we dumped 8k on rumors/fear of a dump and now its taking so long to recover some of the losses, makes me nervous.



The market is not mature yet, we are still 90% a retail market and retail are generally dumb as dogshit and make shitty emotional decisions. This is also a market that allows these idiots to trade with 100x levearge, that magnifies things. Nothing to worry about, the strong hands will prevail.

Also the India FUD didn't help either.
1068  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 16, 2021, 11:50:58 AM
Interesting analysis over on Willy Woos twitter regarding the supposed 19k bitcoin transfer to Gemini.

https://twitter.com/woonomic

Apparently CryptoQuant sent out a tweet saying that a large inflow to Gemini had just occured, and it means that a whale is about to dump. Minutes later the market dumped. However, there was no evidence to say that this was a whale about to dump and due to the liquidity of the exchange it would make zero sense for a whale to do so. But that didn't stop CryptoQuant from effectively manipulating the market. Pretty unprofessional. The coins are no suspected of belonging to BlockFi.

Anyway, more cheap coins for the true beleivers so all good.
1069  Economy / Speculation / Re: Bitcoin back to $ 10,000? on: March 16, 2021, 06:06:38 AM
for now $ 10k will not be easy to achieve !, yes even though i know about the very high volatility in cryptocurrencies it makes people think that $ 10k will be reached again, but for me $ 10k is a very cheap price at the moment, keep in mind that demand is getting more and more, then what happens?
Maybe it will be the other way around if Grayscale and Microstrategy choose to step back from this space and secure their profit so far. This strategy will probably be the thing that bitcoin holder fear the most in the long term even though the market will recover once support come. Do you know how whales play in the market?

But fortunately there are currently no signs of such a strategy emerging. At least it can still be estimated that price will rise again. Scarcity, circulation, adoption and trust have made bitcoin the most desirable asset among small, medium and high level investor.

If I've understood correctly Grayscale can not sell their coins. And anyone who has listened to Michael Saylor for the past several months, knows that he isn't selling either.
1070  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 15, 2021, 12:36:26 PM
Quote
Markets selling off due to bogus data saying $1b of BTC flowing into Gemini.

It's the 2nd time it's happened in the last 30 days.

Chart: leverage positions getting liquidated as traders sell off. Red dots showing the timing of the fake inflows. (28k and 18k BTC respectively)

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1371418824499630081
1071  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 15, 2021, 10:03:09 AM
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-india-cryptocurrency-ban-idUSKBN2B60QP

Latest round of FUD; India looking to ban crypto which we've known for some time now... People dump for the stupidest reasons. If India wants to shut themselves out of a revolution, that's their bad luck

So a year of weekly India bans Bitcoin to look forward to then.
1072  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 15, 2021, 09:28:36 AM
Some very aggressive dumping going on here

Just in time for all those stimulus checks to be sent to exchanges.
1073  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 15, 2021, 09:24:42 AM
Dump
1074  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 14, 2021, 05:26:02 AM
-multisnips-
Biodom, it's not the first time you use the word 'bearish' to define JJG's ladder system. Why would you characterize it so?

I just do not want to criticize too much, to each their own.

you would be able to borrow against btc stack, which M. Saylor keeps bringing up, but not many on WO are listening. Such loans are typically used by high net worth individuals (HNWI) against VTI, VOO, SPY, and other whole or broad market ETFs.


Thank you. You got me thinking, especially about the loan thingy. I'd be glad to know more about that. Any pointers will be welcome.

Fidelity:
https://www.investopedia.com/fidelity-will-accept-bitcoin-collateral-for-cash-loans-5091879
Basic rate is high, 4.5%, but i am sure this will go down.
I would be shocked if Coinbase would not do the same soon after the IPO.
Personally, i would never go above 20% LTV, maybe just 10% (in case of our typical 80% drawdown).
The advantage-NO cap gains tax. In fact, maybe deductible interest (or not, hard to say)

Borrowing Against securities (better rates right now):
https://www.schwab.com/pledged-asset-line
Libor is 0.11%, so the best rate is 1.86%.
Say, you've got, hypothetically, $10 mil of VOO.
You borrow $ 3mil. Your interest (to pay) is 3000000X0.0186=$55800 yearly
However, $10mil in VOO generates $152000 yearly in dividends. End result-you borrowed $3 mil to do whatever, it effectively cost you nothing (well, a decreased divvy).
Yes, you would have to pay the principal at some point, but you can use divvy remainder to do that plus VOO goes up roughly 10% a year, so the loan basically pays for itself (if stock market performs).
That's why rich can have a cake and eat it too, lol

More:
https://www.wellsfargoadvisors.com/why-wells-fargo/products-services/lending/securities-based.htm
Yes, best rates are for those with lots of assets.

Ret accounts are NOT eligible, though.

Mind you, I have done nothing of the sorts so far, but I am studying the question (after Saylor's remarks).

This is exactly the kind of stuff I'm currently thinking through. Selling is the last thing I want to do now (still considering offloading a couple for a home though, wife would like the security, I might cave).

Imagine this scenario for a moment, you get a loan of 4.5% on some of your BTC, you take that cash buy BTC on spot and sell some 6 monthly futures contracts on those BTC for an annualised gain of >20%.

That's 15% profit right there, to be used as cashflow, without selling any BTC.

Honestly, why bother selling any BTC (except maybe home or emergency) while we now have the ability to to do this kind of stuff.

Also, can you post the link for the Saylor vid?
1075  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 14, 2021, 01:53:48 AM
Is there anything better than waking up in the morning, going to the toilet to take a good shit, switch on the smartphone and watch that green candle grow to break an old ATH in real time?!  Grin
....

At my age I'm grateful to simply shit without difficulty in the morning. Nevermind also playing with my fondle slab in the process.

Speaking of taking a shit....Who came up with that "taking a shit" term anyway?  It seems to have quite the opposite meaning.
To be clear...
When one visits the lavatory to do one's business, one does not "take" a shit(or piss) .... rather, one deposits (or sprays) #one. (or  #2 as the case maybe)
Even the UK  term  "having" a shit still doesn't quite cut it either.
Technically speaking "having" a shit means you  did indeed "take" a shit at some point in the past.

Indeed... I've had a few, which is why I digress....

GO BITCOIN


Whatever it is, just make sure you wash your hands.
1076  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 06, 2021, 08:34:21 AM

This was on hacker news several days ago. Some real interesting comments, most think it is not him.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26231674

There's also this on hacker news when Len died.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2723959

One quote from the second link is interesting though I thought

Quote from: pablos08
   

I met Len in 1999, he was a kid. A cocky kid who thought he knew everything and I wasn't impressed. I think we were arguing about K of N keysplitting. Rodney Thayer said "Yeah, he's like we were at that age." Rodney was gracious and patient, accepting and loving towards Len and I felt obliged to follow his lead. This is a highly improbable description of Rodney, but it was the truth. I became friends with Len and we were coconspirator cypherpunks at a time when that was a wild frontier. We were reimagining our world, riddled with cryptosystems that would mathematically enforce the freedoms that we treasured. Anonymous remailers to preserve speech without fear of retribution; onion routers to ensure nobody could censor the internet; digital cash to enable a radically free economy. We have schemes to decentralize & distribute everything. We imagine complex and esoteric threats to problems we might someday have - we architect futuristic protocols to insulate against those threats. All this is a highly academic geek utopia exercise. I tend to keep it that way, but Len wanted to get his hands dirty. There were times when Len got visits from various Federal agencies over remailer abuse. At first Len would get scared and I'd get him out of the house which he assumed was bugged, and drive around for a while. Especially in those early years, Len was trying to impress us. We invited him to join The Shmoo Group, where I'm a fringe radical, and Len became the lunatic fringe. I'm sure we helped temper his apocalyptic tendencies and at times he even bordered on diplomatic. But it isn't in our nature to acknowledge prowess directly. You only know a hacker respects you if he's willing to waste his time shooting holes in your ideas. I have thousands of messages to and from Len spanning the last decade, and I doubt a single one of them offers any direct praise.

Len got his hands dirty. He committed himself to building the stuff we imagined. I play it safe and remain blameless, but I get to stay balanced because courageous guys like Len fulfill the extremes.

Len, you are, in fact, an inspiration to those of us who inspired you. You made something great of your life. You left a lot behind for us. Thanks for letting me be a part of it all.

Cypherpunks write code.
1077  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2021, 09:46:59 AM
And again under 50k ... Why I am not suprised ...

If this is f2pool dumping coins like you think, these dumps, that are getting no traction from elsewhere yet, will just be depleting their coins at a fast rate.

I am personally enjoying it. Especially knowing that within a few weeks we will be at all time highs again.
1078  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2021, 06:11:39 AM
Good Morning WOvians ... So we had a huge dump from our friend the fuck2pool again this night to get the price down under 50k ... luckly we closed yesterday over 50k. We had a nice breakout to the upper side of the bull-flag ... and it seems to be goingupwarts until a bigger dump cam up. My suggestion is again a couple of thousands corns were dumped from fuck2pool ...

Where do you get the data for f2pool?

Also, don't be too worried, the market will eat up all their coins. In addition, I think they are a chinese pool right? this means if they say they have a million coins they actually have no more than 100k. The chinese are so full of shit, they big note themselves at every moment. It's for 'face' everything is about face for these tossers.

CryptosRus makes several videos about this. They aree the only once how has and bitcoin outflow since december. And maybe it'S because they have mining farms in regions, where they forbidd mining in the future. Nobody knows, why they doing it, but they doing it. Nevertheless the number of coins they are moving ... Add several thousend to the market and the price is suffering. The same, add fiat money to the market and the price will go up.

Cryptoquant is one source. You can see the daily outflow for free. The hourly outflow you have to pay for it.

https://cryptoquant.com/overview/full/227?window=day

To be clear. We can trade millions of coins between us, there is not much price movement. You have to put in fresh (fiat) money, than the price goes up or you put "fresh" coins to the market and the price is going down.
In the long run they will loose and their coins will be eaten up. But they can cause movement around some key points and invalid outbreak on patterns for example or put us under a psychological barrier ... So don'T underestmated the force of 8400 addtional coins on the market... Yesterday, for example.

You are right, if we have a massive buyer market, then they coins will be eaten up very fast!

Thanks for the link.

Yeah, long term is the way. I'm not going to deny that the short term movements from these sort of things don't suck, but long term its upward with f2pool sliding into irrelevancy.
1079  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 04, 2021, 05:29:45 AM
Good Morning WOvians ... So we had a huge dump from our friend the fuck2pool again this night to get the price down under 50k ... luckly we closed yesterday over 50k. We had a nice breakout to the upper side of the bull-flag ... and it seems to be goingupwarts until a bigger dump cam up. My suggestion is again a couple of thousands corns were dumped from fuck2pool ...

Where do you get the data for f2pool?

Also, don't be too worried, the market will eat up all their coins. In addition, I think they are a chinese pool right? this means if they say they have a million coins they actually have no more than 100k. The chinese are so full of shit, they big note themselves at every moment. It's for 'face' everything is about face for these tossers.
1080  Economy / Speculation / Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion on: March 01, 2021, 10:04:43 AM
My calculations show that the correction from 58 400 to 43 000 is 26.3%. This doesn't even qualify for a significant 30%+ correction! And the claim that this is the end of the bull cycle is too premature and quite bearish. The support down to 40K looks pretty solid compared to the sell pressure, if we look at the depth charts of the main exchanges (even Bitstamp). So most probably we are going sideways for some time before resuming the bull run. My bullish expectations are 150-168K at the end of June and 333K-400K at the end of the year. The worst I can imagine for this year is half of the latter prices, i.e. 84K in June and 168K at the end of the year. However, we are on the track for the first scenario, and these 2 little corrections only improve the chances for that. #provenbymathandscience
I hope you are wrong dude, I pray to god that bitcoin goes back to 10 thousand and can buy more.

You had your chance for years, it's still not too late to get on board at these prices. In fact, it's never too late to get on board. Bitcoin is here to protect you from government corruption, and to prevent your labor being devalued by the elites. Even at 1 million Bitcoin is still a good buy.
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