Okay I read the article:
* It starts with a whole section about the US IRS. There are more countries in the world than the US who tax it differently. So it's off to a poor start.
* It get's better, but only by only focusing on the next quarter (3 months). Therefore this article is a totally different animal than the trend line: the article is short term, the trend line is long term
* The section about miners is purely speculative and doesn't use any data. Do miners sell more coins then before? I don't know and neither does the author (he merely speculates)
* The author agrees the reasons the price is depressed now (more merchants) is bullish long term
* The same applies for the buying going on off exchange. The thing with a constant supply and rising demand is that int he end the supply runs out.
* The price range in the end is completely pulled from his ass. Tbh I would predict the exact same price range as him for one simple reason: the future is most likely to be same as the present. I once saw a study which concluded that if you predict the weather for tomorrow to be the same as today all year long you outperform all weather forecasts worldwide. The same applies here.
Thanks for the article though. An interesting read none-the-less.
It was just an example that I was recently impressed with. Merril Lynch and Goldman Sachs have written more elaborate analysis. I just want to express that linear regression is neither a fundamental or a technical really, it's just a statistic. Actual trendlines are the way to go if you want to show a trend, in my view, because they can be invalidated. Hell, moving averages work well too, and you can use two different moving averages for their crossovers. |
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Bearish divergence: Price does higher high, indicator does lower high Hidden bearish divergence: Indicator does higher high, price does lower high This isn't really a bearish divergence if the slope is just less negative. Plus, you drew it from different points in time for price vs. indicator. Anyway, I checked it out on bitcoincharts, and there, the daily MACD actually does show a hidden bearish divergence, very strictly speaking (the slope is almost flat). Didn't catch that before, so thanks for that.  |
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These are all valid critiques on the model. However, there isn't anything better. It's not like a stock which has assets and generate a positive free cash flow. Valuing commodities that are not used only in industry is inherently hard (not that valuing industrial commodities is easy but at least you have estimates of demand to go on). How would you value gold? Where is that price heading long term? Well we use long term charts (yes longer than Bitcoin) to show it matches inflation of fiat currencies (although one can only truly use charts after Nixon completely killed the dollar by ending the gold standard). So Blitz (and others): do you have any better ideas? If so, I'm all ears  Yes. Technical analysis, sentiment analysis and, to a certain extent, fundamental analysis all work with Bitcoin. Here is a good one, with real fundamentals: https://medium.com/p/ba5f3fcce103 * Written by the CEO of gyft, who brings many of the same arguments I have been making here over the months (such as increased merchants like Overstock depressing prices and historical heights of never to be seen again miners' margins which are inevitably slowly bleeding). *FUD warning, of course (Facts U Dislike). |
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Time to post this again, yes? We have seen the ups and downs and have realized it all works out in the end.  This is the great delusion that markets bestow upon people, that a trend is invulnerable and "it all works out in the end" almost sounds like religious faith. I know that nothing I can say could possibly make you think otherwise, but still, please consider how you would react if Bitcoin slid 80% or 90% from here during the next 6 months. Even if the probability is small, are you ready for it? Because this has happened before, and it happened in this very asset (even if you tell me that times are "different" now – well, to compensate, the price is higher to begin with!). I remember that time well. At the time, there was a long-term log support trendline, too, that was being drawn by everyone in this forum. It was violently BROKEN:  And guess what? That break ended up being the best time to buy. But few bought, for few had money to spare, and many of those who did have given up on Bitcoin. I will tell you that all along this decline, there was plenty of good news as well. I believe Bitpay was created amidst the bear market for example. All I want to say is that eventually, all trends break. Prepare yourself for the improbable, because it is devastating to lose almost all of your wealth. Do not let your mind be compromised by Bitcoin cultists. Let this be a lesson from a former Bitcoin cultist who has made a fortune off Bitcoin by turning himself into a Bitcoin pragmaticist. |
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Where is the best place to get an accurate view of the Chinese exchnages order books?
Don't forget that any "accurate view" would still be prone to manipulation on the exchange operators' behalf. |
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Sorry, forgot where I was posting. Yes, there is absolutely no problem with this; it's not at all indicative of possible disintegrity on behalf of your broker. Never mind.  |
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It's highly concerning that apparently Bitstamp is showing willingness to manipulate the market given the role they play., because we don't know if there is any real foul play behind the scenes. MtGox once did the same with a similar statement in a press release. I deemed them somewhat more professional than MtGox, but perhaps I was wrong. At least MtGox have stated that they would disallow their employees from insider trading, but I have not heard anything like that from Bitstamp. |
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Interesting. I would have thought they'd not allow net selling. This way, it's a true market now.
Starting April 1st. Yes, but I thought it was supposed to be "limited" in some way. I wonder whether they are selling on exchanges or rather OTC. |
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Interesting. I would have thought they'd not allow net selling. This way, it's a true market now.
In how far is redemption at all "limited" then?
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Boy, how delusional do you have to be to think that Bitcoin will be worth 1.54 million USD per in 3 years. I mean, that's almost reptilia "300k by 2013 Christmas" level of delusion.
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This seriously puzzles me. Why should those who think, say, 300 is a likely target go and "stick to alt coins"? Wouldn't you rather they start buying at 300, to prevent price falling even further?
Man, you got to diversify your portfolio. Come buy some Potcoins, Ponzicoins, Blightcoins, Dogcoins, Cripples and other scamcoins. They will surely not wither much harder like the piece of shit crop they are if Bitcoin collapses. |
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It always feels like I read every one of ShroomKit's posts sometime before.
Sheep, idiots, panic-selling, ignore list.
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Retreat to $400 and hold the line, people. $401 if you want to make sure you get all your coins back. Sell any bounce and build that fucking wall. It's going to be a battle and we need every man we can get. If it breaches, the next stop is $266 and the next ATH will be delayed by months.
This is not team sports. This is not war. This is every man for himself, and it is beautiful. |
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alte MtGox Konten mit Guthaben
Hätte das hier gern erläutert, hab es noch nie gehört. Was war da? |
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Just keep dumping you sheep. It will magically make everything better.
Just keep being a sheep and cry over sheep instead of taking your life in hand and protect yourself from sheep. What I have learned from this forum, is that the whales who are gradually dumping during the bear market, with waiting for support to rise so they could dump another wave, are the sheep. The ones who have drug references as nicknames, and who are constantly wiring in new money to buy more "cheap coins", "because this has to be the bottom", are the scholars of this community who should be listened. There are a lot of "very special" people in the world |
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Just keep dumping you sheep. It will magically make everything better.
Just keep being a sheep and cry over sheep instead of taking your life in hand and protect yourself from sheep. |
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I do wonder, have any Chinese exchanges "coincidentally" increased their fees in the past days?
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buy now b4 it crashes down to 0?
<- depressed.
How many business days until 180? |
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