No more double digits for July.
what'd you mean by dollar extraction, was this in regards to bitcoin or the macroeconomy? both? Bitcoin. It's happening, although at a slow pace. The trick to having a nice impulsive move is to stricke quick, hard and repeatedly while the BTC supply is low on the books so that it doesn't recover and we can have a positive feedback loop for a while. That's why I find it's looking good for an epic bull trap. |
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No more double digits for July.
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Conditions are looking good for a sizable bull trap from here. Let's see if the bulls' wallets are as big as their mouths.  |
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They've been doing their best to contribute to a FUD environment and stunt Bitcoin's growth by scaring off investors for a while now. Not that I'm surprised given the deflating bubble.
It gives them time to get their software and processes in order. If MtGox's decline continues at this rate, they won't be needing that anymore. |
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They've been doing their best to contribute to a FUD environment and stunt Bitcoin's growth by scaring off investors for a while now. Not that I'm surprised given the deflating bubble. This guy said it best: First everyone ran for Gox and now all people want to get out again. Always everyone at the same time. No patience, but want to make 1000% profit.
All the money was uploaded from January to mid-April and it will take at least several month to download it again. There is no Dwolla, no OKPAY, no more Liberty Reserve.
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How does it count if mtgoxUSD simply become devalued? MtGox's price differential to all other exchanges has risen to about 10%. You should probably be looking at Bitstamp's prices.
It's pretty clear to me that there is nothing ahead but tears. No large investors wants to set foot into this uncertainty with the withdrawal issues. And even though it is delaying the fall, it will be that much harder once the market place is intact again ie people can get their dirty fiat.
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The spread between MtGox and Bitstamp is going crazy again. Even though they have about the same volume as of recent, their prices differ by over 8% right now.
▲ mtgoxUSD 93.7900
▲ bitstampUSD 86.5400
▲ btceUSD 84.5380
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Naturally they are lagging indicators, no question there. They only confirm what the charts say, that we are in a deflating bubble. Just different ways of looking at the same thing.
Regarding "you shouldn't be so certain in your predictions, you're setting yourself up for a big fall". If you had 100% certainty and perfect timing, obviously you would go short on maximum leverage. I don't have 100% confidence, and I don't have perfect timing. Therefore, I don't short, and particularly not on high leverage (well, aside from not trusting Bitfinex). No falls to be had, merely heights to be missed.
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There was no fear, uncertainty or doubt; sentiment has been neutral ever since the $50 panic. This is also evidenced in the low volumes. The entire market is on hold until what every sane person knows will happen: the kick-off for capitulation.
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Burst bubbles slowly deflate. We were discussing evidence besides the price chart for the ongoing deflation of the bubble. I don't know why you refuse to understand that we have had a bubble and that it's deflating.
Perhaps it is this: Date Registered: 14-03-2013, 03:59:40 I see a lot of bubble deluded who signed up during the bubble and have seen no other face of Bitcoin.
Interest is fading all across the board. Simple.
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Blitz, you are a long term bear, aren't you?
If long-term is 3 years and there is capitulation selling on high volume leading to <50, accompanied by extremely bearish sentiment ie the bubble has finally (mostly) deflated, then yes. I'm a long-term bull. |
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Personally, what I find pathetic and ridiculous is not being able to acknowledge the realities of bursting and deflating bubbles and ignoring the evidence staring at your face. Suit yourself. |
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Thanks for this great archive btw, Voktar, though I wish we had the stats for April, specifically mid April.
Interestingly, even though all those indicators are pointing to Bitcoin losing users, losing publicity, you will not hear this story told on any Bitcoin medium, or upvoted on r/Bitcoin. Instead, you will be served post-bubble delusions of Africa, Argentina, Turkey, Cyprus. We can guess why that is.
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Hype is dying, interest is dying, people are leaving. Such is the long, drawn out process of deflating a bubble.
It's visible in all indicators, USD leaving the market, google trends, your node stats, r/bitcoin, even bitcointalk.
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No more triple digits means that 90s is expensive, and therefore we have much further to go down. Reptilia, this point in time is August 2011, not November 2011.
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Bids: 100 BTC for $100 0.01 BTC for $99 Sell 100 BTC into it, the price won't move. Sell 0.01 more and it will go to $99. Maybe you should have a look at an order book to understand how it works: http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/It boils down to the fact that there are larger and smaller orders, and their concentration isn't even. |
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▲ mtgoxUSD 93.5000
▲ bitstampUSD 86.5100
▲ btceUSD 84.7000
The divergence continues. Only MtGox is in denial about the 80s.
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This would be the third attempt.
Third times's the charm.
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Right now the magic threshold is really just about $100.
In the one week time frame I place $100 in the center of the negative feedback range. That means, the farther away from $100 we go on either side the greater probability we will go into positive feedback. There is still much greater sensitivity to positive feedback above $100.
Good observation, I see it the same. 99 = expensive 101 = cheap |
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