So far 25% crash from the AYH. Not impressed. Hodlers lose nothing, only weak hands lose, as always.

Now the last weak hands/minds are gone, let's resume the bull trend!

The first support at 11800 was breached. The next support at 11200 holds so far. This is the price range since the crazy run began 2 days ago. Practically it was completely denied. It's around 19% correction from the AYH 13880. There is no reason or news related to the crash, so it is not logical to have additional 10 or 20% crash. The most probable scenario is to reclaim 12K until the end of the week and set a new AYH after a week. We are still in a bull market! Let the weak hands get their 1%-stop profit or even 10-20% "cut loss". We just need to stay above 10K for some time in order to breach 20K and stay above it for new highs like 50-100K in 2020!

P.S. As I was writing a good bounce to 11800 occured, which may be enough to stop the panic sells.

Ok, this was the usual middle week sideways. I am waiting for the weekend pump 

I think there is a good chance we get a new ATH in the following weeks. Most of us expected it sometime after the halving, but things developed unexpectedly if favour of a much earlier ATH breach. I feel sorry for bears trolling about a correction at 4K, then 5k, then 6K,.... and now at 13K. But it didn't happen! These shorters are just comparing charts from previous years and trying to make predictions. But as their posts show, they have little or no knowledge of the current market situation.  The fact is that there are so many circumstances that are different compared to 2017 and all are in favour of Bitcoin. I'll try to explain to those who didn't follow closely the market in 2017:

1. Why in 2017 there were so many 40%-ish corrections, and in the last 6 months we had none?

Answer: In Jan 2017, when the price was heading to beat the ATH at $1140-ish, a sudden news appeared on the website of PBOC (people bank of China). It threatened the major China's exchanges with a ban if they don't meet the requirements. This lead to a sudden 40% crash. Since back then 95% of all Bitcoin trades were made in China's exchanges, the panic was huge. Not only that, but  similar news appeared multiple times in Jan, Feb and in Sept. 2017. There was the first ETF denial - another crash. Also, in June there was a decision for a fork, which stalled the market for the Summer. Then in November another more dangereous fork was looming, but thankfully it was cancelled. Then Bcashers started the attack of 'flippening' by selling over 100K BTC in a few days and buying over 2mil bcash. Of course, none of these news matter in 2019.

2. Was the price 20K too high and because of that there was a  80%-ish crash for a year?

Answer. Each time the last ATH is surpassed, traders feel fear whether the price is not too high. Since in 2017 the raise from 700$ to 20K was too big, this fear prevailed. The whole 2018 traders were afraid how low Bitcoin can crash and the buys were pretty low compared to the sells. Does this mean that the price was not sustainable if we exclude the fear? The answer is no, since the price managed to increase with so many bad news and corrections in 2017!

3. When we reach 20K will be there a similar crash?

Answer. There might be some 'bigger'correction because of the fear of repeating the history. But it won't last for a year and 3 months for sure, because of the next halving. If it happens, it will be for several weeks/months until the ATH is finally breached. The worst possible scenario is to have a day with a 40% crash from the top, and by the end of the day 20% to be recovered. Then slowly for several weeks the remaining 20% will be recovered. Or we can just blaze through 20K like a knife in butter, who knows!

And finally, two more observations:

4. Altcoins boomed also at the end of 2017. This was a huge loss of cash, that might have been used for buying bitcoins.

5. Compared to 2017, some of the volume of Bitfinex is now redirected towards  Bitstamp, Kraken and Coinbase.  This makes it more difficult for the price to crash. At the same time, the overall volume of all major exchanges remains half of what was in 2017 (Bitfinex was a beast then), according to https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/2y?c=e&t=b (not working ATM, and even if we include Binance, which wasn't a thing in 2017). This is because hodlers bring more coins after multiple ATH's and it becomes more difficult for the market to absorb the new coins. While now, hodlers know that 20K will be reached and breached and don't bring many new coins on the exchanges. So traders have fewer and fewer coins to buy. At the same time, tens and hundreds of millions new comers enter exchanges. Their fiat potential is much bigger than the newly mined coins, considering that even in 2017 their potential was most probably enough to reach 40-50K.

P.s. As I was writing this post, the price shooted from 12800 to over 13400!!! Way to go, Bitcoin! Good job!

Ahh, what a pleasant surprise to wake up and see we are $12 069 12130! If someone told me in March, when we were hanging above the cliff, what will be the price in June, I would have told him that the probability is <0.1%. But here we are, and who knows what BTC is preparing for us  until the halving. I am starting to think it will be better to go on an unpaid leave of absense  on some island with no internet and return after a year. I can't imagine what the price will be then  

Back to 11 000! This week will be very interesting!

I just recalled some of my posts earlier this year:


and


Now I say: the newest episode of "Bitcoin story: Every day a new ATH!" will be on theathers later this Summer.

OMFG! I just woke up and saw the peak of 10915! Last night just before I went to bed, there was an epic wall battle on the good old finex. While stamp bid book was dangerously empty and the price started to plummet, a 600-ish BTC wall appeared on 9900 at finex. It was eaten by 100's pretty quickly. On stamp it was 9850-ish. Then another wall was put of 900 BTC. It was eaten in minutes. And then another 900 wall that started to be eaten by 100's and 200's sells, but after each sell it was replenished. This was the most epic fight to watch! I knew when I woke up there will be a pleasant surprise. But shooting to nearly 11K is beyond my expectations!  Go BTC, go!

Polo trollbox is back (although not working  ). Expect massive pump/dumps of various shitcoins never heard of.

In the meantime, while everyone was occupied with FB shitcoin, the King is on the move again. Stabilizing 1-2% below the year high with a low volume and an icreased bid support is always a sign of an upward breakthrough. The 10K attack is imminent!

Because FOMO at $9K kicks off. Most of the new investors understand that they would take a huge risk selling now and waiting for some 1-2% drop below 9K. The risk is that if the price won't drop, they will miss the last train to get a profit 10x or more in near future. So the n00b traders who always sell when the candle gets red are left alone with no help from the majority. In this way the support channel gets narrower after each significant raise. So far the channel is 9-9.3K excluding the temporary peaks. It could be widened to 8.8-9.3K but would it be worth the risk for another 1% drop to miss the train? Of course no! And the majority understands it.

"Bitcoin is booming to its highest price in a year and the Chart Master says it's heading straight for $10K"

https://twitter.com/CNBCFastMoney/status/1140732730872946691


Finally someone noticed that 2018 was a falling wedge pattern, which we broke on 1 April. IMO, 10K is too conservative even for a short term like a month. We touched $9500 yesterday, so we can expect to break the 10K resistance soon. Those who were waiting for 6 months to get a big correction, are getting extremely nervous. I can tell this by the number of posts (ignored by me) of n00bs like gembitz, joinov, r0ach, etc. who get overly exited with every dip which is a food for their sick brains that they will have the chance of buying at 2K and below.   Every one should know the truth that if they miss the train now, they miss a profit worth of millions in terms of fiat. And this is the moment FOMO kicks off.

I just realized that for a week we had 25% raise from $7500 to $9390. And this is in the middle of the 'dead' summer period. 339 days to the halving and the best is yet to come! 

Good morning WO brothers! I woke up with $9050, now it is $9280 9300. I am speachless. Another happy day in my life (if I am still not sleeping - pinch me!)   Are r0ach, gembitz and joinov looking and preparing a dance for WO 100K party?

I continue to mine ETH and XMR with my new 13 cards rig. In Bulgaria the electricity is around 0.112 per kWh, so I have $100 profit per month. I have also 24 old cards, which are now not profitable. But half of my stash is thanks to the profit of mining in 2016-2018. I missed the big profit of ETH in 2017, and the BCH pump, since I sold it for only $200. I just so hate it that I couldn't stand it for a day in my portfolio. I am waiting for some pump of ETH/XMR to get 1BTC more.

P.S. And as the above comment suggests, I use for heating purposes my old rigs. During the winter I enjoy temps like 26C in my appartment  

Yes, bakkt is a very good news, because it could be used by big investors to buy and hodl bitcoins with insurance. For me personally, this is huge, but bakkt still needs that custody approval. It may be obtained after the tests begin of course. And with regulated market with insured custody, ICE may apply for an ETF, which will have much bigger chance than CBOE's proposition. This is just a speculation of course. I am convinced that Bitcoin is heading for a new series of ATH's even without institutions involved.

Historically, every time a srong resistance is broken even by a little, a doubling follows, e.g. the $4200 resistance. I wouldn't be surprised if we see 16K in the coming months. I think the market is more mature compared to 2 years ago, and it doesn't respond to the news like before. The price is moving by the increased demand vs scarce quantity of coins offered on the exchanges. I've been trying to guess what that potential is, based on the strenght of the support during crashes/dips. I notice also that the volume on Bitstamp, Coinbase and Kraken is 4-5 times bigger than 1 year before. Of course, there are purely psychological levels that serve as a resistance: 9K-10K is one of them. The current ATH is another. But, if we ignore the psychology, I think the current market potential can support prices around 20K. And after the halving, it could reach 50K for sure, with a top above 100K. This is what we are waiting for, isn't it? Well, at least for the coming 2 years. Who knows, where we will be in 5,10 or more years.

Houston we are go for launch!

I normally ignore newbies talking about pumps and selling as if Bitcoin is some shitcoin. But, since recently I was wondering what are the main types of sellers/buyers on exchanges, it is worth the effort to give a short description. In general, I think there are 4 main types. The first type are the whales that try to manipulate the market with the aid of some derivative/futures exchanges. The second type are medium and long term investors a.k.a hodlers. The third type are the miners. And the fourth are the average Joe-traders. I won't discuss the first three types. They are clever enough to choose some strategy and make some good profit. But I will try to describe in general the third group and more specifically the n00bs that are into trading for less than 2 years. They try to buy at some dip and sell at some local high. Normally, this profit is like 1-10%, if they guessed right. But since Bitcoin is completely unpredictable, the wrong guesses lead to losses that most probably will erase all previous profits in longer term. The problem of these guys is that they have no clear idea or a goal to achieve. They sit 24 hours/day in front of the monitor to spot some movement and sell/buy. This can't be done for long without some mental/health issues. They are just like those obsessed with gambling. And usually this doesn't end well. The lack of strategy, paired with the lack of evaluation of the Bitcoin leads to smaller profits and eventually to a loss. And the things are so easy to understand: Why treat Bitcoin like a shitcoin (which can dissapear anytime) and look for a profit, say 10%, while you can buy and hodl for a profit at least 1000%? I doubt that even the best trader in the world can achieve this for 2 years, if he/she trades on daily basis. Then why those n00bs believe they have some chance? Why it is so hard to undesrand that if Bitcoin reached 9K starting from 3K, it will for sure reach 16-18K in a year max? How these guys see the chances with the approaching of the next halving? Do they see this as impossible and so they sell every time Bitcoin jumps over 8K (not to mention the guys that sold at 3K, then 4K, then 5K, then 6K - some of them are still in a big depression praying for a bigger dip to enter again, like gembitz -weee). And finally, do you believe that if you have a profit like $10K from trading, you will be happy, when in several months you WILL miss the opportunity to win $1 mil? If you don't know the answer, go ahead, sell. But I tell you that you will be devastated and you will come back at prices above $30K and try to compensate with a similar small profit. But this is the way of life. The stupid miss the opportunity for a life changing profit, which goes into the hands of the smart investors. The question is what type you prefer to be. I've made my choice after I went through all the stages with a small part of my savings until I decided to invest all of it and stop trying to trade the pumps. And in this forum there are hundreds, probably thousands of establised hodlers with a long long experience. To think that as a 2-day/month/year crypto trader you are smarter is just ridiculous. People like r0ach, gembitz, etc. are a perfect example of former traders that were mocking the hodlers when they sold, but now they've lost their mind because of the poor choices. At least this is what I see from their posts. They are many more of course. My ignore list is getting bigger every day