How would I go about running DiabloMiner on OS X? Where is the correct path to put all the files in the distribution? I am quite adept with linux stuff but I have an OS X machine sitting here with a 6870 card and would like to make Diablominer work on it.
Just unzip the binary zip and use DiabloMiner-OSX.sh, its just like using it on Linux. |
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There are more errors. Your calculations assume 50 BTC per block, and this is going to halve during the first year of operation. If you get started after December 9th or thereabout, your block reward will start at 25 BTC.
No, I already included a disclaimer for that: I have not factored that in, and I think BTC prices will double because of it. You don't want to predict any difficulty increase, but price doubling is assumed? In that case try another calculation. Spend all the USD to buy BTC before the block reward halves, and sell afterwards when the price has doubled. Much more profitable than this mining operation, and less risky because you don't depend on constant difficulty. :-) Can't predict difficulty, however. I've seen it swing wildly up AND down. |
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At 1.5m diff and prices north of $5: 54 BTC a day or $270 a day or $98,550 a year.
[...]
156 * 85 ghash is 13 thash, or enough to completely secure the cryptographic safety of Bitcoin, or make about $9.6 million dollars in the first year, assuming, again, difficulty does not greatly spike or prices do not greatly plummet.
The addition of 13 Thash/s will by itself more than double the difficulty. Mining is a game of diminishing returns. When your share of the total network get to large, you mostly compete with yourself. You at least need to take your own hashrate into account when calculating the resulting difficulty, and don't assume all other innovation in mining will stop. No, I did the math wrong. Its 3.5 thash, not 13. There are more errors. Your calculations assume 50 BTC per block, and this is going to halve during the first year of operation. If you get started after December 9th or thereabout, your block reward will start at 25 BTC. No, I already included a disclaimer for that: I have not factored that in, and I think BTC prices will double because of it. |
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At 1.5m diff and prices north of $5: 54 BTC a day or $270 a day or $98,550 a year.
[...]
156 * 85 ghash is 13 thash, or enough to completely secure the cryptographic safety of Bitcoin, or make about $9.6 million dollars in the first year, assuming, again, difficulty does not greatly spike or prices do not greatly plummet.
The addition of 13 Thash/s will by itself more than double the difficulty. Mining is a game of diminishing returns. When your share of the total network get to large, you mostly compete with yourself. You at least need to take your own hashrate into account when calculating the resulting difficulty, and don't assume all other innovation in mining will stop. No, I did the math wrong. Its 3.5 thash, not 13. |
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Don't forget taxes, there is slim to 0 chance of you being able to run an operation of that size without the taxman coming after you.
Operating costs. Although, the fun part there, I think the federal government still has tax rebates on solar panel deployment, so taxes work both ways. |
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(The plan has been moved to the op post)
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I've emailed GLBSE to see if I can get the 8BTC back.
Potential investors and I are just not seeing eye to eye on this, and its a waste of time and money to try to continue. I want to make sure no one can get a stranglehold on the Bitcoin economy, but no one really seems to either think that can happen (stealth privately owned mining companies, etc), or they don't see its worth plunking the money down as a sort of insurance.
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Keep in mind 1 million bitcoins is 4.7% of all bitcoins ever to be mined. Yes, I understand you wont hold these all at once but its still just a massive percent of the whole economy.
Just for comparision, 4.7% of all USD in existence is ~2 trillion dollars. Apple's market cap is just about 600 billion. Uh, no. All USD in existence is measured in the quadrillions. Our annual Federal budget is more than 2 trillion. The war in Iraq cost more than 2 trillion. The difference here is, Wall Street valuation is not based on reality, and USD is inflationary. Your comparison is rather pointless. |
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So, Ive been thinking, that second plan where these are essentially 10 year bonds makes no sense financially. Basically, I take all the risk and get none of the reward.
In fact, where I was originally going to be paying operating costs out of the growth fund, this is still making the risk all mine while I get none of the reward.
So I think I'm going to change the contract before the IPO issues shares to something along the lines of operating costs come out of both sides. Since a lot of people are absolutely convinced I can't raise the 1 million BTC (which says more about their lack of faith in the Bitcoin community than anything), then there is no way I can keep operating costs low enough early on.
Both I and all the investors should split the risk and reward so it is fair for both of us. I am willing to invest a lot of time into this, and, in the long run, my money. The only reason investors exist is because they either can't invest their time or they won't, but they still want some of the action, but entrepreneurs are willing to cut them in on the action in exchange for capital.
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There's also the argument fact that if you own 50% of the hashing power, with the revenue potential, why destroy bitcoins to start with? Although some people are indeed... not too sane and/or prone to extreme grudge against various things.
Which is partly why I wish to start this mining company. I simply don't trust one of the other mining companies not to become big enough that they're a security risk. |
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I'm generating 1 million shares no matter what.
Would you rather pay 1BTC for each now, and get 50% of mining output.... or pay market prices and get paid nothing for 10 years, 100% goes into growing the mining company, and I sell 1000 shares a month at market prices.
Did I read that correctly? 10 million shares owned by you now, then sell 1K of those shares per month for 10 years, means you still have 856,000 shares after 10 years? No, I said 1 million, not 10. Although, yes, it'd take 83 years. Pretend I said 5,000 shares a month, that seems more reasonable, it would take almost 17 years to sell them off if I did my math right. |
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So I want everyone's opinion on this. I'm generating 1 million shares no matter what.
Would you rather pay 1BTC for each now, and get 50% of mining output.... or pay market prices and get paid nothing for 10 years, 100% goes into growing the mining company, and I sell 1000 shares a month at market prices. After the 10 years, I pay 100% of the output minus expenses to run it?
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Well, I imagine 1m BTC worth of people want to continue profitably mining when no one else can. If I'm wrong, this is going to be a waste of 8BTC.
Alright, if we assume that you receive 1m BTC in your IPO, what do you plan to do with it? There's not enough liquidity to sell it immediately for USD, it would take a while and undoubtedly lower the exchange rate. If we assume you manage to sell it for ~4 million USD, what are you planning to buy? (And why do you expect us to trust you with that much? GLBSE ID verification and reputation on these forums is one thing, but you're moving to a scale far beyond that. Most start-ups requesting VC request under $1 million, and have to go through extensive processes to get it. You're asking for $4 million.) Yes, I'm aware it will take a LONG time to convert BTC into USD for much of my purpose. And yes, I'm aware how the VC process works (I know people who have gone the Silicon Valley startup route). I'm trying something new. I think it is going to be possible to crowd fund large scale business using Bitcoin without going through things like YC or Kickstarter. What I'm planning on doing is building a small scale DC just to host mining hardware, but it is going to take quite some time to get there. I'm willing to put the next 10 years of my life into this, I think Bitcoin has a future but it is going to take effort to get there. |
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1 million BTC is over $5 million dollars at current market prices. Get $5 million then... if you spend 1 million BTC on mining equipment, I don't really see a way to get this 1 million BTC back with mining. You will make earnings in USD, but not in BTC imho, so investing BTC in a company that uses BTC to buy equipment in USD to generate BTC would only be a good idea if the price of BTC vs. USD is falling. Otherwise it would make more sense to sell your shares OTC for 5 USD each and value them at 1 BTC after the IPO sold out. Read the contract. The shares entitles dividends of half of what the pool produces, not a fixed amount. Lets say, oh, 10 years from now, 12 or 16nm FPGAs are too expensive to hash with, I can still be running 28nm or higher processes purely on solar and be mining, effectively, for free, and not only that, I'd probably be mining most of the Bitcoins. This is a very long term investment project, and I think this is going to be the only way to keep profiting a decade from now. |
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So, guess what I finally decided to do? I'm going to IPO my own mining company on GLBSE, ticker DMC.
I'm seeking 1 million BTC to make this the largest mining company ever. Some people think I'm insane, and, who knows, I might be. But its worth a try, right?
Ehm, I will have a look but from my point of view it's doomed to fail. Do you even have the facilities,experience and drive to run such a project? And I doubt that you will be able to fill a 1 million BTC IPO :8 sorry m8 it just sounds very silly. //DeaDTerra 1 million BTC is over $5 million dollars at current market prices. $5 million dollars is enough to, say, build out a small scale DC, install a small amount of solar* to deal with the possible future where even the most efficient FPGAs are too expensive to run. * The cost of solar is not the panels, but the batteries. If I consume all the solar power the panels produce, I don't actually NEED the batteries. Already have a thread for it here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77469.0 |
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So, guess what I finally decided to do? I'm going to IPO my own mining company on GLBSE, ticker DMC.
I'm seeking 1 million BTC to make this the largest mining company ever. Some people think I'm insane, and, who knows, I might be. But its worth a try, right?
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It sounds like you intend to build a long-term mining operation, which interests me. What's your plan for staying competitive in 4-8 years -- what'll give you an advantage over other miners? What hardware are you going to buy? Are you going to mine solo, use a pool (which one?), or use p2pool?
Probably solo if the farm gets as big as I want it to. |
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There is nothing in the contract to actually allow acquisitions, nor am I willing to entertain offers to do so either.
The only reason I have shares represent 0% of company assets as the assets, until the event of liquidation, are owned by the growth fund. Assets can be sold, replaced, decommissioned, or otherwise removed from the asset pool for any reason I deem necessary to continue profiting (such as upgrading, the hardware actually dying, switching from FPGA to ASIC, etc).
And yes, that includes selling not-quite-dead hardware on eBay and putting the proceeds back into the growth fund. The contract fully lets me do that, nothing in it lets me leaking asset value out through any method under than the depreciation of the assets themselves (ie, plugging them in and turning them on).
Now, you do bring up a good point, this agreement DOES allows me to purchase other mining companies and hold them as assets; but as I said, I would never entertain BEING purchased. I would rather liquidate the company than let it be purchased.
tl;dr: Shares only entitle you to dividends.
So, if you aren't trolling, can you explain (in all honesty) how you realistically plan to raise 1 million Bitcoins? Well, I imagine 1m BTC worth of people want to continue profitably mining when no one else can. If I'm wrong, this is going to be a waste of 8BTC. |
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I uninstalled 11.2, installed 12.3, installed the 3/11 DM and gives me the original Java error I posted originally. Back to the Jan 23rd DM and 11.2 for now. I have the error file if you want it.
Yeah, but you didn't rebuild your kernel module and reboot with it. 12.1 and up use a new one, I think AMD screwed up because Catalyst usually refuses to start up with any HW accel features if the wrong kernel module is loaded, 12.1 don't follow that behavior and its confusing for users. |
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How many GH/s does your mining operation currently have and how much should 1 share (out of how many) cost?
As a benchmark: 1 MH/s 100% PPS "forever" bonds currently are traded between 30 and 40 Bitcents.
Currently, less than 1 GH/sec. I'm obviously building this from the ground up. There will be 1 million shares forever (I will not seek to ever create more), but I would like to get 1BTC each for them. Yes, I'm aware thats about 1/8th of currently circulating Bitcoins. So, everyone has to invest into it at a $5,400,000 valuation, before it has grown above 1Gh/s... You need to rethink your model. Also, why do shares represent 0% of company assets. This is odd. You have outlined what happens during a liquidation event, what about an acquisition event? The way you have written your offering, seems you may be able to legally sell all company assets to a third party, pocket the cash yourself (you are the only shareholder who owns assets), and leave other investors holding shares in an empty company with no assets or operations. I don't think you are trying to be deceptive, but with shareholder agreements, you should very explicit and describe every possible case, so there are no misunderstandings. There is nothing in the contract to actually allow acquisitions, nor am I willing to entertain offers to do so either. The only reason I have shares represent 0% of company assets as the assets, until the event of liquidation, are owned by the growth fund. Assets can be sold, replaced, decommissioned, or otherwise removed from the asset pool for any reason I deem necessary to continue profiting (such as upgrading, the hardware actually dying, switching from FPGA to ASIC, etc). And yes, that includes selling not-quite-dead hardware on eBay and putting the proceeds back into the growth fund. The contract fully lets me do that, nothing in it lets me leaking asset value out through any method under than the depreciation of the assets themselves (ie, plugging them in and turning them on). Now, you do bring up a good point, this agreement DOES allows me to purchase other mining companies and hold them as assets; but as I said, I would never entertain BEING purchased. I would rather liquidate the company than let it be purchased. tl;dr: Shares only entitle you to dividends. |
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