While still bullish mid and long term, the technical picture is deteriorating short term.
Some key trendlines are broken: see chart here http://www.bitcoinbullbear.com/
There are two clear options.
1) Decline from current levels or
2) If 6.1 $ is broken: then Rally. but there is no need to be LONG until this has happened
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5.6 $ is not a big support area beyond the the very short term.
As we shared with subscribera last night, some key trendlines are broken and there is a strong possibility for another short term selloff.
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I agree with many of you. The technical strength of the bitcoin market has been impressive lately. I will analyse the market in depth today and provide short and mid term trading scenarios in today's weekly report.
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Thanks for sharing. There are always many way to count the waves...
The most important thing is not to be right all the time in the predictions of the waves, but to create profits.
Right now, the better risk / reward relationship is to be short. I waited quite a while for this opportunity and now here we are.
Shorting 1344 has a approx. 2% stop loss (1371). Reward is minimum down to 1280-1300 (3.3 - 5%), and if it was the big top, much more.
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No worries. I have nothing to hide.
As you can see , I outlined two options. The market decided for the second option, but I still favor the bearish resolution from current levels up to 1353 DOWN. And this option remains valid as long at 1370 holds.
I am 90% convinced that we will see at least a strong top pattern this week.
Net a tradable scenario can be to short 1340-1352 with a stop above 1370.
EDIT: Above 1370 is bullish with some more upside, before eventually the crash arrives. This will not invalidate it, just delay the crash. Target remains below 500 for the S&P500
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Do you mind sharing some reasoning on why you believe the most likely resolution is to the upside?
In my view, the key question since the struggle at the 7.2 high, and now 6.2, is a different one: "Are we still in the bull market that has started in November?"
we believe the answer is yes.
We are in a bull market since November as long as 3.3 / 3.8 $ holds.
And short term, there is a golden cross above 5.3 - 5.4 $ |
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There are various possible interpretations in the short term.
However, the most likely resolution is to the upside. The key question remains: will bitcoins turn up from current levels or will they fall deeper before reversing up?
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Nice. I sold everything. Hope you did too.
S3052 Advices in his mailing to buy at 6.1 on the expectation of rally to 7.2. He base this advice on the break of monthly SMA (which was done by a single buy). To remain fair to people paying for the analysis, can you please stop sharing information from the paid service. Thank you. |
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no single entity can prevent market forces.
this is true for the stock market where the FED will be failing to keep stock prices inflated
and it is true for bitcoin...
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That wall at 6, by the way, isn't there any more, if it ever was actually there in the first place.
if I was trying to actually trade in this market, I'd be pretty miffed. Basically it seems none of the data from gox can be trusted right now.
I think it can be trusted, just no live data at the moment. If you keep reloading mtgox it gives you the price, and same with clarkmoody. Mtgoxlive seems just dead though. Still worthy of being miffed about though. |
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Chodpaba,
CONGRATS!!!
You opened the 100th page of this thread, and even with a great picture.
I still remember the day when I opened the thread and bitcoin was only having few followers and the BTCUSD price was 0.1 $.
Amazing times..
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It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.
We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture.
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated.
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Juts issued an interim bitcoin technical analysis update in the subscriber section.
As the content of this S3052's analysis is private only to subscribed members, I would vote to make the notifications about private too. I know that some PR is always needed, but this reveals hints to the market. Instead, do some week-ago or so POST MORTEM analysis, where you will publish the previous analysis and discuss the outcome. |
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Juts issued an interim bitcoin technical analysis update in the subscriber section.
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Seems to me this picture is a bit bearish short term judging by the resistance curve's slope
It is normal that shortly after a price surge that there is some void on the bid side.
As mentioned before, I would not rely too much on the orderbook. It gives too many false signals and can be manipulated too easily. |
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He hasn't always been a bull. He is a bull when the trend is up and there is no evidence that it isn't up. Even the short term is, you heard it, up, from $4.6. I'm genuinely surprised by the sudden pessimism, fear and panic in the speculation forum. I have realistic and low expectations for most things and I seem to underestimate the stupidness of the Bitcoin market.
First we saw totally inflated expectations for the Good Wife episode, for me it was the opposite because it was much more than I expected. Now we have seen some unrelated issues but nothing huge and the result is a wave of fear. I see the attitude of S3052 as very healthy right now when we seem to have a large amount of unfounded fear and pessimism.
The most realistic scenario is still that this is a correction to to an overly bullish rally. It's not about to crash to $2, people who say that are manipulators who simply want people to panic more to get their money back in at a lower rate. It's ridiculous.
+1
There is a history about my bitcoin forecasts that shows bullishness and bearishness when the analysis and the time warranted it. |
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We just issued the weekly bitcoin price analysis and newsletter to subscribers.
Exciting times ahead of us!
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wenn es über 7.22 geht werden wir wohl auch die 10 bald sehen :-)
Genau. Das ist sehr wahrscheinlich. |
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At one point, a next rally leg will most likely come, and it should be very strong.
But until 7.22 $ is cleared to the upside, there remains a neutral trading range down to 4.64 $. This means that there remains a risk for another short term sell off, before the mid term up trend continues.
4.64-7.22 thats' a big gap 
A more narrow, short term range is 6.1 - 6.5 $. A breakout of this range would be the first sign of a stronger move. |
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