Bitcoin Forecast, Bitcoin Speculation & Bitcoin Technical Analysis. Up or DOWN?

[N12]

proudhon: the update was actually quite bullish.

I thought it was very neutral. I read it as if it goes down, it might go down more, and if it goes up, it might go up more... But as almost always the bullish side was stressed.

So the analysis acts as an amplifier for either direction.

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[zby]

I used it together with chodpaba graphs and decided that there is too much risk that the support zone will be broken.  And also on the up side it was rather difficult climb - both because of chodpaba graphs and asks on tradehill.

[naima53]

there is a good strategy when the volume is small (need to have enough money) -
hourly trend is up - go long on bitkoinica 10:1, buy Gox 500B (1000B ...) and quickly fix on bitcoinica, 50% of profits to send Gox,
hour trend down - go short on bitkoinica 10:1, sell 500 (1000 ...) on Gox, quickly fix profits, 50% of profits to send Gox ... Again and again ... More attention analytics and trend lines ... mood on this forum ... draw your own conclusions ...

[rebuilder]

there is a good strategy when the volume is small (need to have enough money) -
hourly trend is up - go long on bitkoinica 10:1, buy Gox 500B (1000B ...) and quickly fix on bitcoinica, 50% of profits to send Gox,
hour trend down - go short on bitkoinica 10:1, sell 500 (1000 ...) on Gox, quickly fix profits, 50% of profits to send Gox ... Again and again ... More attention analytics and trend lines ... mood on this forum ... draw your own conclusions ...

Hmm. Would this end up looking more or less like the spikes we've been seeing lately? (such as the several pushes to 5.4 in the last day or so)

[zby]

there is a good strategy when the volume is small (need to have enough money) -
hourly trend is up - go long on bitkoinica 10:1, buy Gox 500B (1000B ...) and quickly fix on bitcoinica, 50% of profits to send Gox,
hour trend down - go short on bitkoinica 10:1, sell 500 (1000 ...) on Gox, quickly fix profits, 50% of profits to send Gox ... Again and again ... More attention analytics and trend lines ... mood on this forum ... draw your own conclusions ...

this works, it was much much more profitable around $3 or so a few weeks back.

Who loses on that?  bitcoinica?  So they are a bucket shot after all?

[naima53]

sometimes does not work 

Who loses on that?  bitcoinica?  So they are a bucket shot after all?

nope ... bitkoinica nothing to lose ... losing those who hold rates there for a long time ...

[S3052]

Juts issued an interim bitcoin technical analysis update in the subscriber section.

As the content of this S3052's analysis is private only to subscribed members, I would vote to make the notifications about private too. I know that some PR is always needed, but this reveals hints to the market. Instead, do some week-ago or so POST MORTEM analysis, where you will publish the previous analysis and discuss the outcome.

I agree. At the same time, I want to stress that the private updates should remain private and not revealed here.

[notme]

there is a good strategy when the volume is small (need to have enough money) -
hourly trend is up - go long on bitkoinica 10:1, buy Gox 500B (1000B ...) and quickly fix on bitcoinica, 50% of profits to send Gox,
hour trend down - go short on bitkoinica 10:1, sell 500 (1000 ...) on Gox, quickly fix profits, 50% of profits to send Gox ... Again and again ... More attention analytics and trend lines ... mood on this forum ... draw your own conclusions ...

this works, it was much much more profitable around $3 or so a few weeks back.

Who loses on that?  bitcoinica?  So they are a bucket shot after all?

Losers are those that react to the sudden move and try to chase it.  You can only take profits on Bitcoinica when someone will take your position at a profitable price.  If you trigger a crossover a lot of people are watching, it can work out pretty well for you.

[molecular]

proudhon: the update was actually quite bullish.

I read the update as neutral. There was no affirmation without a precondition. He didn't even say one way was more likely than the other.

[molecular]

proudhon: the update was actually quite bullish.

I thought it was very neutral. I read it as if it goes down, it might go down more, and if it goes up, it might go up more... But as almost always the bullish side was stressed.

lol. almost exactly what I wrote, could've just +1'd you.

note to self: read all comments before posting.

[S3052]

It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture.
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated.

[cbeast]

It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture.
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated.

The Weather: It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture. (The season will change)
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated. (We don't know exactly what the weather will be.)

Weather is more predictable than markets.

[naima53]

I just stopped selling (just kidding) 

[S3052]

Chodpaba,

CONGRATS!!!

You opened the 100th page of this thread, and even with a great picture.


I still remember the day when I opened the thread and bitcoin was only having few followers and the BTCUSD price was 0.1 $.

Amazing times..

[molecular]

It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture.
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated.

I hope you didn't take my previous comment as negative criticism... if nothing can be said about the direction, a neutral update is the right thing and knowing the trigger levels is valuable information nevertheless.

So far your short term update seems to be on track... (I hope that didn't reveal too much about the content)

[cbeast]

Chodpaba,

CONGRATS!!!

You opened the 100th page of this thread, and even with a great picture.


I still remember the day when I opened the thread and bitcoin was only having few followers and the BTCUSD price was 0.1 $.

Amazing times..

Were you mining on C64s back then?

[molecular]

cbeast, I'm assuming you're arguing that s3052s' report doesn't contain much substance, right? I'm also assuming your post was meant half-jokingly, so please see mine in the same light.

Weather is more predictable than markets.

exactly, that's why your weather-analogy doesn't work so well.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture. (The season will change)

bitcoin does not have a strong seasonal predictability like weather does, and that's why the mid and long term preditctions of s3052s' report actually have substance as opposed to the outlook that spring will come for the northern hemisphere.

[waspoza]

Were you mining on C64s back then?

ZX Spectrum FTW. 

[molecular]

Were you mining on C64s back then?

ZX Spectrum FTW. 

busch microtronic, has a TMS 1600 (4 bit), overclocked to 800 kHz

still trying to find a way to fit sha256 somehow

sorry to pollute the 100th page of the thread with pic

[arepo]

It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture.
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated.

The Weather: It is important to note that there are times when a neutral stance is warranted, and there are times when a clear probability is given.
This also depends on the time frame.

We have a clear bias in the mid and long term picture. (The season will change)
While short term it is neutral until key trigger levels are violated. (We don't know exactly what the weather will be.)

Weather is more predictable than markets.

markets are as predictable as weather.

i actually made this point in another thread; it's not a negative thing to say about technical analysis...