The elevated long leverage mixed with the overhanging ETH locked in 2.0 and the mtgox coins are still keeping this market down. The support at $28K is looking more and more exhausted as it continues to be tested. I think there's a strong likelihood that the price will retest the recent lows in the $26K range. Hopefully that will liquidate some of the long leverage and bring the market into a healthier position to begin building support for the next wave of BTC to crash down onto it.
Interesting, but I interpret the current situation in exactly the opposite way. Never ever in the history of BTCitcoin a dump of eth has cased a dump of BTC. Then why should it happen now? It makes no sense. Besides, in August eth will probably switch to POS, meaning that the issuance of eth will be reduced significantly, hence less dump. Regarding Mtgox coins, I haven't seen any news about this event for months. I doubt that there is any reliable new information, except fake news. This still can go for years and it is improbable to think that 100K BTCitcoin will be released and dumped at once like terra's flop. This will happen eventually in small numers and won't affect the market. Of course, FUD including mtgox, WW3 war, new pandemics, etc. can do a temporarily harm to the price, but this has always been that way. This is what we call a black swan event - not related to the market dynamics in any way. And finally about the 28K support. When the asset is oversold it is the sellers who are exhausted, not the buyers. Remember that BTCitcoin supply is limited - may be only 2-3 million coins are liquid, the remaining is in cold storage and not likely to be sold under 100K, let alone at these low prices. The volume in the last months on all exchanges is near this number, so I don't expect anything dramatic to happen. According to Glassnode stats most of the sold coins are coming from the new investors with less that 1 year coins who realized their loss, the so called short term hodlers (STH) capitulation. To be precise, Glassnode calls STH those who posses coins less than 6 months old, but we can safely extend this term to less that 1 year old coins. In this way, may be less than 1% are sold by LTH in the last 6 months. LTH are known to sell only for goods and estate, not for fiat in the banks. It is pity that almost all STH failed, but this is only their fault. BTCitcoin is not get-quickly-rich shitcoin and anyone who treats it like this will be burned. The only thing that delays the recovery is the fact that we have 9 consecutive red weeks. And nobody wants to buy big numbers until there is at least 2-3 green weeks signalling the possible bottom. So, most peeps are just waiting for this red thingy to end to start investing again. Judging by the lack of volume in leveraged longs on all exchanges except BFX, I think this red trend will either end this week or in 1-2 weeks max. Speaking of BFX longs, they haven't been an issue for the last years. BFX traders are quite experienced and they don't gamble as much as the n00bs in Binance, Bitmex, etc. I've watched many crashes 40%+ in the last 5 years, and very few longs were liquidated in BFX, which means they are better funded or low leveraged. I mostly agree, but the fact that we had 9 weeks of 'down' is in fact bullish. Not many will dare to short right now and the longer it continues the more scared they will be. Well, unless Bitcoin is dead obviously  As to FUD: do you remember times when we had no FUD? I mean that MtGox FUD is dragging behind us since at least what? 2017? Or even before that? And last but not least: what makes me most optimistic is that if we had no blowoff top, there's a fair chance we won't have a 80% drop. After all, it not only the bulls who can get screwed. If most of the crypto (sorry Jay I deserve a batslap I know ) world awaits "moar down", "$20k" etc why don't we get some healthy "up" instead? |
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WoooooW its been a long time But finally seeing my fam once again Me+LFC @Paris Love it Go go Liverpool  Wow nice should we guess who’s who? U must be new here... |
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WoooooW its been a long time But finally seeing my fam once again Me+LFC @Paris Love it Go go Liverpool Wow wow wow gentlemen! Football, right? No plans to visit Roland Garros? P.S. Where are the ladies? |
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ps- shoot me in the face
Be careful what you wish for... there's Bawb lurking here.. somewhere... #nohomo |
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so you guys are into food porn?  Still better than Arrie! Muahaha! |
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I'm starting to miss the old WO: fine dining reports (and dick pics haha NOT ) by El Duderino, gentlemand and his humor, endless dramas of Bawb, even the retarded fucks like old nazi roach (are you reading this now, you old nazi prick? ), mindrust and his confusion and short-sighted moves. LFC_Bitcoin's bullishness, lastofthev8s etc etc etc... even annoying trolls like gembitz (no thanks, just kiddin). Trains, rockets, hulks.... where are they? Just think about it: we'll reach 100k and beyond but things are not gonna be the same. People change, times change, we are getting divided by pandemics, wars etc. This old WO is lost, it's gone forever. Prolly nothing, just getting old and sentimental. No more Lambos, hookers and blow.  Don't worry. We're still here. Lambos? I prefer to leave the driving to chauffeurs, cabbies, etc. Hookers? I don't pay for something that's free. Blow. Stopped using that in the 1980s. Sorry I haven't been keeping up my morning greetings lately. I've been busy with buying a triplex in downtown Toronto. Got a great price... under $2M. Perfect location. Front yard, back yard and rooftop gardens. Excellent tenants in the 2 rental units. Its exactly what we'd been looking for. The trouble is that when we signed the purchase/sale agreement bitcoin was worth over $40K. Now its under $30K. I really don't like mortgages. I prefer paying cash. Under the circumstances though, my accountant and I are investigating taking out a 5 year mortgage (vendor take-back maybe?) so we can avoid selling too many coins at today's bargain prices. We should have new ATHs before 5 years has passed. In the meantime, I'm continuing DCA selling. It hurts to sell when the price is this low but money's just money. A private lake and a home downtown with income are on a different level. Fine dining? Last night it was juicy flatiron steaks. Before that we roasted a stuffed turkey with all the trimmings. The WO is still alive and well. All the political crap is just a symptom of internet propaganda and boredom from price doldrums. Honey badger DGAF. We'll be back. Thanks jimbo! I feel like the old WO is back now! Thanks man! How's your missus doin? |
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I'm starting to miss the old WO: fine dining reports (and dick pics haha NOT ) by El Duderino, gentlemand and his humor, endless dramas of Bawb, even the retarded fucks like old nazi roach (are you reading this now, you old nazi prick? ), mindrust and his confusion and short-sighted moves. LFC_Bitcoin's bullishness, lastofthev8s etc etc etc... even annoying trolls like gembitz (no thanks, just kiddin). Trains, rockets, hulks.... where are they? Just think about it: we'll reach 100k and beyond but things are not gonna be the same. People change, times change, we are getting divided by pandemics, wars etc. This old WO is lost, it's gone forever. Prolly nothing, just getting old and sentimental. No more Lambos, hookers and blow. |
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Oh, and Ukraine is still winning, and Russia is still the home of all evil.
A Russian general was talking to his wife that,
Russia's war in Ukraine is actually a war against NATO.
She asked, so how 's it going?
General: "Well we have been fighting for 2 month. We have lost over 15,000 brave soldiers, 6 generals, over 1000 tanks and fighting vehicles, 3 ships, 200 planes and drones and 5000 trucks."
"That's terrible.. and what about NATO?" she asked
"Well..." the general scratches his head "Well... they haven't turned up yet"
I am quite interested to know what is happening in Ukraine..... ......has anyone seen any credible reporting on it? I mean to actually get an understanding of the whole picture? ..... how many Ukrainian soldiers have died, how many have been captured? how many of their tanks, aircrafts, fighting vehicles and trucks have been destroyed ? ....... I currently feel like I am hearing football commentary, whereby they are only telling you when one side has scored a goal and not the other. Like I said I am interested in knowing what is actually going on in Ukraine, and, from reading the MSM, I currently have no clue....because, I only have half the picture (and I do not know how credible that half is either) Would be great to have CREDIBLE reporting on the whole picture...... shame there isn't any. Fog of war.... its so.........foggy. Yeah propaganda works like that unfortunately. I remember I was following the revolution/conflict closely back in in 2014 and 70-80% of information coming from BOTH sides were total lies. Unofficial reports (read Russia-backed) claim there are some 50000-80000 casualties in the Ukrainian army. They are starting to send under-trained and under-prepared troops to the front line. Mariupol drama and defenders surrendering was a huge blow to their morale. |
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Teeny tiny green dildo on a weekly? |
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The amount of leveraged longs at the moment is a little bit disturbing. Even as the price falls the leveraged amounts keep rising. That is a whole lot of BTC sales that are hanging over the market. That along with mtgox funds and ETH2.0 coins being unlocked soon and you've got yourself a perfect storm for a crash. Not to mention the coming recession. I sure hope they get an ETF approved soon so it can soak up some of the coming coins that will be hitting the market. So far I'm seeing more and more future sales hanging over the market's head while guys like Saylor aren't in a position to pile in much more.
Some pathetic paper hands whining we have here! |
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I think PlanB has showed some very interesting and often accurate analysis. I do agree that his rise to mythical predictor status was, like MasterLuc WAAAAAY overblown. But so is the way everyone now treats him like he is some giant failure has been. I remember the first interview I heard him on he said, something like "This model is amazing and super accurate over the last xyz period, but all models are only accurate until they break." And I think he often said that over time. I would also point out that his model has not broken yet. We really need more of this cycles time behind us to really make that conclusion. It seems HIGHLY likely that it will have failed during this cycle... but there are paths forward where it still retains it's accuracy. They just become less and less likely the further we go. AND to add some nuance I have always thought his model was quite 1 dimensional, and more about backfilling accuracy than something reliable for the future. All the acolytes are the ones responsible for the worship of this model. I always thought it was a kind of silly thing. Now his 100k by December proclamation. There he was 100% wrong. And that was a hubristic mess, that prediction. I wanted it to be true, as we all did, but that is just silly. Some of the other silly predictions were even worse. I still remember Matt Odell getting super drunk and ceiling "Bitcoin T.I.N.A." a bear. But Tina said he did not think BTC was going to go way up, but that it would probably pull back and go up to 6 digits later. His prediction in that regard has been right so far. (Odell irritates me with his "stay humble" bit. His definition of humble is not risking money on alts. My definition is speaking to others with respect in part, which he never really does) I honestly think that the right combination of fundamental evens like the ES conference, and an eventual decoupling of BTC from Nasdaq will drive the next bull. The question is WHEN does it go... PlanB is a stupid bull like me, and his prediction that "the bear market is almost over" is fairly bold. And if it IS true he *could* also still get the last laugh for the s2f model... Probably not... but I hope he's right  Bottom sure, but with the exception of 1 of those "bottoms" they all go sideways for several months before heading into a bull cycle. The idea that because the price levels out that it is suddenly the end of the bear market is ridiculous. I'm not versed in trading lingo, but generally a bear market is defined by falling prices, no? So when the bottom is in, you could argue that it's the end of a bear market. Problem is how to know, if the bottom is really in... The question is why do you need to know if the bottom is in? If you want to buy - buy. Missing the bottom by a couple of grand is not a big deal. Zoom out for a bigger picture. If you want to sell - hodl. Simple as that. |
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So, he's trying to say the cycles are getting shorter? We are somewhere in late 2019 now according to that graph? |
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Out of the last 27 weeks (since ATH) 19 were red. That's 70%. That's painful. Ouch. |
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Me waiting for the next bull cycle after I failed to capitalize any gains in the previous cycles:  Man, we're in the same boat! |
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7 Red Weekly Candles for the first time in the history of Bitcoin and you still call it Bull run? my arse. Midwit's will now ask me to zoom out the chart holy F Even emPty Gox only ever had 4 weeks of Red candles for many periods during 2011.  Well you guys are right that there has never been 7 consecutive red weekly candles before. But what I have noticed during 2018-10-22 to 2018-12-10 (period of 8 weeks) price dropped from $7680 to $3156, it was -58% price drop. And that time too there were 7/8 red weekly candles. Ok now we got 7 red weekly candles but price drop is from $48,189 to $26,700 which -44%. So no way these can be worst weeks of bitcoin. Even if you consider ATH of that period and now you will see: 2017 ATH $19,789 to $3,156 => -84% 2021 ATH $69,000 to $26,700 => -61% So no, we are not having the worst weeks of bitcoin yet. 7 red candles or 8 still stats saying otherwise. HODL  I can see only 5 consecutive red candles in that screenshot of yours. And we now can witness 8 weekly red candles in a row! So, nothing near the current situation. As to $20k, I think that it's theoretically possible but only as a flash crash scenario. It can last for hours, possibly minutes. |
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At a glance I do not see much about the following here... my apologies if it has been already discussed.  This is a shot of central bankers and finance ministers from 40+ countries that Nayib Bukele invited to El Salvador for a conference on using Bitcoin as a nation. The list of countries reads like a whos who of the folks that would be targeted by the IMF et al with their loans etc. These folks are looking to get off the plantation and they are doing so en masse. Banco Central de São Tomé e Príncipe Banco Central del Paraguay Banco Nacional de Angola Bank of Ghana Bank of Namibia Bank of Uganda Banque Centrale de la République de Guinée Banque Centrale de Madagascar Banque de la République d'Haiti Banque de la République du Burundi Central Bank of Eswatini Ministry of Finance of Eswatini Central Bank of Jordan Central Bank of The Gambia Comisión Nacional de Bancos y Seguros de Honduras Direction Générale du Trésor, Ministère des Finances et du Budget, Madagascar Maldives Monetary Authority National Bank of Rwanda Nepal Rastra Bank Sacco Societies Regulatory Authority (SASRA) Kenya State Bank of Pakistan Superintendencia General de Entidades Financieras de Costa Rica Superintendencia de la Economía Popular y Solidaria de Ecuador Banco Central de El Salvador Central Bank of Egypt Central Bank of Jordan Central Bank of Nigeria Ministère de l'Economie, des Finances et du Plan du Sénégal Superintendencia de Bancos de la República Dominicana Banque Centrale de Mauritanie Banque Centrale du Congo Central Bank of Armenia Bangladesh Bank Banco de Moçambique Bank Al-Maghrib (Morocco) Bank of Sierra Leone Bank of Zambia Central Bank of Lesotho Central Bank of Liberia Central Bank of Sudan Financial Regulatory Commission of Mongolia Ministry of Finance, Zambia Palestine Monetary Authority Reserve Bank of Malawi They did this quietly, and it has not been covered much by mainstream western news. Probably nothing, right? This is great for King Daddy, every little piece of positive (and sometimes even negative) publicity is good for Bitcoin. Everything will come eventually, also the hyperbitcoinization at the government level. |
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Haha this is hilarious! Well you can certainly mindrust the shit out of your stash even faster if you have paper hands! |
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Top tip from my hot neighbor, she's a gardener.
Pics or didn't happen... |
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bitcoin like system? with such a high fee? he's drunk!  You gotta be joking? High fees? When was the last time you used BTC? In December 2017? Or was it irony? Sorry if so. |
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Finally, a tiny relief rally... PS. Or am I making things up? |
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