OK.  I will stop spamming... But just the last few MINUTES... this oughta tell you something...

My node is UTC Time... it's 23:41 right this moment...   I am processing like 3-4 payments a second at times!

On a cell phone processor...

LOOK:



SERIOUSLY!  THINK ABOUT IT!

At times my humble little RaspiBlitz based node is processing almost as many payments as the entire BITCOIN NETWORK.   Lol.

One more thing... 

For the time it has been active, my channel to Wallet of Satoshi has had ENORMOUS volume.

Two other things.

1.  Currently the amount of satoshis that = $30 is about 34k.  Most all of my recent transactions have been much higher or much lower than that.

2.  Now that we are officially on the world stage, how much do you think the powers that be are willing to spend to try to discredit, or harm bitcoin.

3.  How much does honey badger care?

Wait, that's not two...

This makes me very happy.  God bless!

Very interesting.  Looking at my logs I am seeing no unusual activity on my busy little node.  And I might not be super important... but I am actually a "BOS" ranked node (https://fulmo.org/bos-score.html). According to Mr's Bosworth's calculation I am ranked as being (one of) the 100th most important node on the lightning network!!!  Daaah Daaaaaah!  I'd love to get down to the double digits of "important" nodes, but I just opened up a few new channels, and I think median (or average, not sure) channel age is part of his calculation.  So I shot myself in the foot there... though I did up my # of channels as well as my total BTC in channles.

And I can say this...  My node has processed HUNDREDS of transactions today.   And so far it is more than FIVE TIMES as many transactions as any previous day.

So either the DDOS involves spending money, OR a lot of Salvadorians are buying Big Macs today.

I tend to think it is the latter!  Particularly because a lot of the transaction have involved the Wallet of Satoshi node.  I wonder what node Chivo uses?  I bet Chivo is custodial... damn.  I need to open a BIG ASS channel to that thing...  Does anyone know?

I continue to charge NO FEES for any transaction I facilitate.

Fuck the IMF. 

Fuck the Fed.

Yes spooks... fuck you too.

Thanks!  Added that as well as a bit on the monetary policy changing as well as the security model.

I honestly think folks do not know why Bitcoin is valuable in the first place.

Sad part is that could actually mean something like Ethereum wins in the end just because enough people did NOT understand...

*sigh*

I cut out a large portion of my blatherings, but being the perpetual optimist I want to say this...

The outcome we have seen today is better than if not much happened at all.

I think this is true:


Therefore it does not take very much selling to drop Bitcoin a LARGE amount.

The inverse is also true.  Which was the point of my hopeful post from last night.  I did not expect this big of a dump for sure, but I am strangely encouraged that Bitcoin, as usual, amazes me.  It can do the opposite just as easily.

Disagree.

Why would we want to limit the freedom of others to trade how they see fit?

If there is a seller of leveraged positions, and a buyer, what REASON would we use to limit their ability to do trade?

When Bitmex was attacked by the US government and Federal reserve (read the world banking system) the awful constant Barts we used to see stopped for a time.  And that was a welcome side effect of an unjust action.

As much as I personally have an extreme distaste for the actions of leverage traders, because of my core position of FREEDOM, I will defend their right to act like apes, and even manipulate markets to do so.

I wish leverage extreme trading (>10x?) would go away but I do not see a way to do that without taking away the freedoms of others.

This rapening seems to have landed right in what I drew as an area of interest a while back...   big gap down there at the bottom though.  Need to look back at what we filled too...


OH!  And that RSI is just sexy!

A flippening for a pre-mined MUTABLE shitcoin with ever changing monetary policy and security models, doomed to centralization from the decentralized leader by far would not be something to celebrate IMHO...  But different folks have different opinions on this, obviously.

I am leaving that second image full width because it is the PRESIDENT of El Salvador TROLLING the IMF over BITCOIN!  WOOOO!

God I hope there are no "accidents" planned for him.  It will be interesting to see how far TPTB decide to go with their end of this.  They will just be pouring GAS on the fire, in my opinion.

Well you might have messed up at a supergood time, really. lol.

Agreeaments.  I saw this as a likely scenario, but I have to admit this was a deeper raping than I had figured possible.

I did hedge my bets in my bullish post.

But I do not take back the bullish sentiment.  And I expect we might see it still!

Also, brace yourselves for the "Bitcoin in ES, a FAILURE" headlines...

OH, and if we go down much more then I might just join in the $30 buy.

Haha! Thanks!  I just have these moment of clarity from time to time where I can see the way most of the paths lead to one place.  And today it just became obvious that we really are going to run into a wall soon... the good kind.  There really is no other way.

On the other hand I imagine the anti-bitcoin news is also going to ramp up.  I imagine some of it is already planned.

Totally agree...  and like I said, I think the majority of possible outcomes for *tomorrow* is just about what you said.

But eventually it IS going to happen.  My bet.

Just thinking about possible outcomes...

Tomorrow, supposedly, lot's of people will be buying $30 of BTC "in solidarity" with the people of El Salvador.  (And I have interest in the dynamics of this, as well as the implications... whether it's a good idea?  Or some weird pump and dump? But that is not for this topic.  I will not be playing along for... reasons)

But I have been doing *this* a little today:
I would think the outcome in most universes is underwhelming.  There might be a price spike, but not much of anything, and I would even think we would see a sort of reverse effect.  A "sell on the news" sort of event if you will.  The Bitcoin price has already been acting a little friskily.  And a cool off period would be reasonable.

But so might be another leg of this bull run. 

And the world is STILL not used to an asset with an ever diminishing loose float.  This is one of the reasons for a Bitcoin chart looking like nonsense until you plot it exponentially.  This is one of the main reasons that people still can't believe Bitcoin is not a bubble.  Only Tulips act like this.  Or the adoption curves of important new technology.

I know I am preaching to the choir, but here's the thing.  Bitcoin is CUSTOM DESIGNED to store value.  And  at the time of this post 89.6% of it is already in wallets. And only that 10.4% more of the total will EVER come into being.

The thing about pricing bubbles is we have ONLY EVER witnessed them in some sort of commodity.  Tulips, dotcom companies, and sub prime mortgages are all examples.  But Bitcoin is radically different than these three things.  In more than one way.  It is perfectly finite.  It cannot be copied, but most of all: it is custom designed to hold value.  It is MEANT to be money itself.  But it is still (early) in the discovery portion of it's genesis.  So the monetization of it is not the same as tulip bulbs.  In fact the PRICE of Bitcoin is it's main feature.  That's the catch.  That is the bomb at the end of the fuse.

At some point retail is going to trip over the fact that there are not nearly enough for sale to meet the coming demand.

That's it.  That's the point.

So what cAPS?  We all know that. We are the wall observers.

Thing is we have still never seen real demand.  And the big money investors who have been gobbling up all the early whale fortunes have been doing so as quietly and surreptitiously as possible.  And they know as well as us that at some point the music stops, and you are either in a chair or not.

But every holder has a price, right?  Of course, which is why Michael Saylor has been able to buy so much.  There are people out there with so many bitcoin that they could never spend it all.  Some are older, too, and are ready to enjoy the fact that were able to see this thing coming. But there are only so many of those folks.

But the part that has remained calm is the retail float.  "It's too late to get into bitcoin" <- is what almost everyone thinks.

Again.  Saylor knows what he is doing.  Why would he be the front man on a pump and dump?  I would bet a WHOLE BITCOIN (if I had that much) on him NOT doing this to dump on all the plebs buying $30 worth tomorrow.

So why?

Because he has figured out the same thing many of us have.  At some point a fuse is going to get lit.  And tomorrow is a damn good candidate.  He holds lot's of sway amongst the Bitcoin Twitter plebs...

I predict that eventually we are going to see a WallStreetBets sort of black swan event.  Retail is going to realize they can make the price go up like CRAZY by organizing their buys.  This really still needs to be kicked off.  And there will be LOTS to talk about once it does as to how the dynamic acts going forward (prices, profit taking, the block size discussion (sigh, again)).

But like I said before... this is different than Tulips. Because once this starts up this time a lot of folks will STILL end up left behind, because they thought they could sell.  The people holding BTC are getting stronger and stronger.  And the addressable float is getting smaller and smaller.  And the demand is getting bigger and bigger.  The lesson to this story is no ONLY sell if you really MEAN IT.


I figure in most universes tomorrow is fairly meh... 

But not all of them.  And it is indeed inevitable.  Eventually that fuse is going to catch.

Strap in brothers (and sister or two?).  You might not need that belt tight tomorrow.  But then again, you MIGHT.

No need!  He will show up when we really start falling to like under 60k...

I would not be surprised if Bitcoin steals the spotlight a little right about here...

But I would neither be surprised if Monero fared well amongst the alts in spite of it.

Here we go...

You guys can feel it... right?

Face melting run?  

I'd not say anything except I don't think I can even jinx it.

*edit* Price at post... already 50484