I have no idea why there has been a tremendous influx of pompous, loud-mouthed newbies, but can I assume that Bitcointalk's new-registration activity itself is a good metric for how Bitcoin adoption is doing?
Yup. Sats earned now, are dollars in the bank in just a few years. Even our little island has been invaded... |
|
|
|
Mine too. But 6mm is crazy talk if we stick with the current sort of cycle-theory trajectory as it stands. We will need an explosive influx to hit that sort of target... It's coming. I still think sooner rather than later. |
|
|
|
RIP Hagrid
Never seen a single HP movie. Never read one book. Fan of JKR for the massive set of fucking balls she has. But, that said... 72 is too young. Sounds less and less old the further I go.  |
|
|
|
|
That said:
WoS for custodial
and
MUUN (then Phoenix, and Breez) for non-custodial
ALL offer an acceptable set of tradeoffs for me, if used rationally.
|
|
|
|
... Lots of good JJG talking asking about how to se a noob up with a non-custodial lightning wallet...
Glad you are here JJG, and glad you are working to set up a friend. I personally consider non-custodial lightning to still be generally cutting edge. There are a lot of user friendly options for wallets that are a compromise, but there are costs to using these. I will explain. There are basically three ways to do lightning transactions:
1. Run your own node. (Zeus, Zap, Fullynoded <- on the phone ... Raspiblitz,Umbrel,DYI, etc for node) Pluses: -as non custodial as it gets -high privacy -you are running a bitcoin node and supporting the network (thankyouverymuch) -FUN! WHEE! Minuses: -meh connectivity/success rate without many well funded channels -technically too difficult for even the average IT professional to do well (lol) -massive risks around maintenance and failure. 2. Use a 'middleground' non-custodial wallet:(Muun, Phoenix, Breez)Pluses: -Non-custodial with asterisks* -pretty damn easy to use -connectivity is USUALLY decent. Payments tend to succeed. * Various compromises are made to achieve this mix of benefits. And each wallet has different tradeoffs. Muun uses Turbo Channels, Phoenix requires a minimum balance and will close and open channels based on usage. Breez has had the least good connectivity in my experience (that said, it's been a minute maybe I should test again) Minuses: -Fees can seem inconsistent (this is complicated I will explain below)+ -walletsecurity.com does not approve of any of these currently -Connectivity/payment success can still be sketchy at times +there are several reasons fees can be weird using these wallets. First of all fees are how they make their money. This is the same as a custodial wallet. You are using THEIR node as the launching point. Imagine running this sort of node. It has to have incredible uptime, security, connectivity, liquidity, and so on. The wallets are basically making your software open a channel to their node (or possibly two for incoming payments) and are using that channel as a proxy to their node. Also Muun, for example, can switch between layer 1 and 2 to make a payment work under certain circumstances. They are maximising payment success over all else... 3. Custodial wallets (WoS, Bluewallet, Others)Pluses: -Payments are usually successful. HIGH rate. -Easy to fund. Once funded all tx are lightning -Fees are generally quite good. Low value tx are zero/cheap, and high value are < on chain. Minuses: -NYKNYC So I have two suggestions. 1. Wallet of Satoshi For this one you keep as much in it as you would a physical wallet with FIAT bills in it. What's your comfort level of what you would carry there? 20k sats? 100k? 500k? (that's $50, $200, $1000?). You pay a fee to put the money in... but that's it. If you lose it because you want to advocate for trans-gay-anti-vax-catholic-russian-democrat-whatever and you get your funds confiscated? Well... how likely is that? And how much will that hurt? divided by how much does it cost to fund this wallet. 2. Muun This wallet works well. Has a well connected node, I like the turbo channels tradeoff, and that you can avoid it if you want to. It is simple for non tech people. And it can surprise you with fees now and then because of the compromises it makes as well as the ... well... fees it charges. So until the middle ground wallets get UX/UI as good as WoS, those are what I recommend. Also... I think it gets good as companies are able to fine tune value/tradeoffs. *****POSSIBLE SLEEPER***** "Simple Bitcoin Wallet" is a non custodial lightning wallet with reproducible (by walletsecurity.com) builds! I have not used this wallet all that much. Good? Bad? I dunno. +++++Caveats+++++ Bluewallet can be used with your own node. so it is not completel "custodial". |
|
|
|
Most of you are probably aware of the special situation the world is in right now. I think the next few months will show if we have bet on the right card with Bitcoin or not.
Corona has destroyed the supply chains of the globalized world and showed us how vulnerability the economy is. Countries have tried to prop up the economy with enormous amounts of money in the form of debt or money printing.
The Ukraine war and the energy crisis are now putting enormous pressure on financial markets and countries. In previous crises, such as the last one in 2008, national banks still had the possibility to defuse the situation. Now there is no room for intervention. The market is crying out for money, but inflation is already dangerously high.
The last time the monetary and debt system was put to the test, a world war broke out. We can only hope that maybe this time, with Bitcoin's help, we can find another way out.
How do you assess the current situation the world is in?
I generally agree with your assessment. However, my tinfoil hat and I believe the events you describe as well as others (US and Western Europe halting domestic energy production, an incredible amount of fires and destruction at food processing and distribution centers all over the world, the mothballing of Nuclear Energy, various social structure attacks (race,sex,gender,religion,politics,etc) and on and on) are not happening by accident, and are part of a conspiracy to move the world into a new system. IF Freedom (and therefore Bitcoin) wins, I look forward to the trials and executions. That is not a joke. There are a few I would like to be present for in person. The damage that has been done to my own family members by the perpetrators of this evil is enough that I would clamp my own hands around certain necks myself, and gleefully watch the lights go out. God forgive me. |
|
|
|
Speaking of merit farmers, I have not seen this many before. What changed?
My theory is you can sell a high merit account. In fact there are a few old timers around that I question the legitimacy of. BCT Merit is a fiat reputation system. |
|
|
|
Stay frosty  I reject this prophecy, and raise you a... whateverthisis (AI thing)  |
|
|
|
"Satoshi Nakamoto wrote about a new way to move value on the internet. Nakamoto — we still don’t know who she, he, or they were — didn’t have faith in the financial sector overseen by folks like us, sitting around this table" > Chairman of the SEC https://twitter.com/i/status/1577265614258720768There is no doubt that we are going to see some serious noise come up particularly in light of Russia starting to use Bitcoin etc... but statements like these frame the fact that even those is high seats of power know that we are well past stopping this. Particularly Bitcoin. Fun times... I figure it's gonna be a bumpy ride soon. |
|
|
|
I am getting a mild tingling in my jibbity bits.
Google will give you a horrifying diagnosis, in case you wanted to feel bad today. HA! That's unfortunately true! But also I want to just do a little humble-brag. The tingling might have been right! |
|
|
|
Closer Look: Today's Update You beat me to it. We have broken that trend line, as well as the 50 day MA I think. Not the first time on the latter, though it feels good to be up above it. |
|
|
|
|
I am getting a mild tingling in my jibbity bits.
|
|
|
|
Absolutely true!
I have often said this: The revolution is not that you HAVE TO... but that you CAN.
We will get there. I am sure.
You’d be amazed of how many people I do argue about this. People telling me you are not a true bitcoiner because you don’t self custody, you don’t run a full node, because you don’t safeguard your privacy. Those are beautiful things. But the point it is an option. You can choose from the wide spectrum. That’s the beauty. It is refreshing to speak with someone of a similar mind on this. The community is so polarized in so many ways. Sometimes justifiably. But often just because we are still immature. I think if you took all the people who do not care about decentralized consensus, or define it too sloppily (ETH, BCH, shitcoiners in general,) and add to them all the hardcore MAXIs (run my own node. Only use cast iron to cook etc) Then you have 98% of the VOCAL "crypto" people out there. I do not know how many like us there are who see the nuance. The ones who see it is not the BANKS that Bitcoin challenges, but the CENTRAL banks. The ones who might run a node, but also use Wallet of Satoshi. And the ones who realize the vast majority of people who use Bitcoin will do so without understanding deeply why it matters. But in this case common sense is the key. People will trust others with their money, simply because there is value there that (hopefully) outweighs the risk. Just as people will self-custody because of the value in that! But let us not pretend there is no risk there either! I buy you a coffee, sir. |
|
|
|
And the dollar has crushed btc in the 2021 nov 1 to 2022 oct 1 time-slot. And btc has buried the dollar in the 2009 jan to 2022 oct time slot . we can go on and on. My 140000 doge was worth 280 bucks in 2020 it is now worth around 8400 My doge will never run out of rewards. and every year the inflation of doge decreases. BTC will run out of rewards and the key question will be how well does the LN feed coins to miners. as I have stated I am 65 this issue will come to a head down the road. Most likely I will be gone when this happens say. 2024 3.12500000 coin reward 2028 1.56250000 coin reward 2032 0.78125000 coin reward 2036 0.39062500 coin reward 2040 0.19581250 coin reward I am 83. At this point in time LN will have really saved mining or killed it off only 18 years from now. Just saying oh I still stack btc but frankly the numbers above are a cause for concern. The lightning network is not really what will drive this. If it continues to be a success it will be one major customer for block space on the base layer. But there will be other customers. All the other layer 2 stuff, and all the folks wanting to do base layer transactions for whatever reason. Miners will either survive on fees, or not. That is the crux of it. Napkin math and thoughts: Currently the block subsidy is ~$125k With 1000-3000 transactions per block we are looking at fees needing to be $40-125 per transaction on the base layer. Many individual coin moves can be bundled into a single transaction bringing the cost per tx down effectively for the consumer Increasing the block size is not 100% out of the question, but VERY contentious. Adding a tail emission to Bitcoin is even MORE contentious. We can NEVER make blocks big enough to do all transactions on the base layer without breaking the distributed part of the tech Therefore 2nd layer tech is an ABSOLUTE necessity both for keeping the ledger decentralized, as well as making payments cheap. Either fees become fairly high, and most of us transact for coffee on other layers, or Bitcoin is only ever used by a small subset of the world population (recently saw the Samourai guys claiming that is the future which they believe - I do not see how, though) So, in my opinion lightning and other Layer 2 tech does not threaten miners AT ALL. In fact it is quite the contrary. Without it miners would have no hope of the fees ever being able to go high enough to support them. Layer 2 MAY indeed have a cost to the miners NOW in that it is taking pressure off the need for blockspace. But until fees go up, that is what the subsidy is for. |
|
|
|
What can I say.
You are right.
Using bitcoin intermediaries (wallets, exchanges etc) as bank accounts will have dire consequences, sooner or later.
But the. reality is that we are so early, and not everyone has the required technical skill, or even the cultural skill, to proceed on a trustless, privacy respectful line of action with bitcoin.
It's very difficult for everyone starting to use bitcoin in the correct way. The most common approach is getting some choices, some of them horrible, and then working out to fix them one by one.
Using custodial wallets, it's one of those horrible mistakes, but it will also be one of the first where users usually realize they are going down the wrong path.
Absolutely true! I have often said this: The revolution is not that you HAVE TO... but that you CAN. We will get there. I am sure. |
|
|
|
It’s not so common to see statistics on the usage of LN, actual usage, not static measures like capacity or channels, so I think it’s important to report those here:  More than the absolute measure, I think the growth it is important. Matt Odell, the lovable curmudgeonly idealist and privacy buff is making some fairly good criticisms of this stat. And I think he has a great argument as far as the land of perfect goes. I have long been the Bitcoin Fundamental Iconoclast (not even counting my interest in Monero) because of my nuanced opinion on "Be your own bank™" as an ideal. It is just not possible. There are too many of us. There are too many who are technically challenged. Not to mention being your own bank is risky as hell. The error, in my opinion is the idealistic thought that because Bitcoin removes the absolute NEED for a trusted third party that we should only build structures that also eliminate that need. But the nuance is that we have the choice. To employ however little or however much trust we want in whatever scenario. Having a "bank", which is what WoS really is, is a helpful bit of trust for many. The UX is better with WoS, no one has to run a node, or even worry about using a compromise wallet like Muun, Breez or Phoenix etc which generally have less smooth user experience. On the other hand Odell is right. WoS is a huge target for the powers that be, thieves and accidents. And essentially an unregulated bank that could steal all the funds whenever they want without any help from any governments at all. So my 20k sats I have in there are a risk. But therein lies my nuanced answer to the problem. WoS is truly a WALLET. In the sense that I am not usually going to be walking around with $20k USD stuffed into one of my back pockets for a night on the town, I am also not going to carry much cash in my WoS. I have already decided, that if I were to visit El Salvador, for example, I would likely load up two (perhaps three) lightning wallets. I would use Zeus with some funds on and off chain, enough for the trip. But I would also have WoS with maybe $100 in it at any time for using when we are out buying pupusas, coffee and renting boogie boards. If using Zeus worked well enough? Well, I could just use that. But if not, I would be glad enough to have WoS work for fast, cheap, trouble free payments. Perhaps if I were feeling adventurous I would try a middle road like Muun as well. But this is notable in my opinion because it istrue for someone with reasonable skills at "being his own bank". Even in spite of that I would want to make certain compromises to my mix of convenience and sovereignty. In fact that is part of what sovereignty is. The ability to control ones own destiny and decisions. So people using Wallet of Satoshi as a BANK ACCOUNT are making a big mistake. And perhaps that is the meat of Matt's argument. That folks in El Salvador and Africa using it as their primary financial storage system are at risk of the eventual rug pull... Me losing $100 on vacation? Not exactly the best thing to happen in a day... but a person in Nigeria losing most of their savings? Kinda a different ballgame. One last though before some grump I have on ignore takes up his usual canard. ALL of these statements are ABSOLUTELY as true with BTC on the base layer as they are with lightning. The Lightning part just adds some spice to the meal, so to speak... I also think this stuff gets sorted out over time... but it might take a while.  |
|
|
|
|
Show Posts
